以色列打击黎巴嫩，美国酝酿对伊朗新制裁
Israel Strikes Lebanon as US Prepares New Iran Sanctions
Lebanon has seen its deadliest day of Israeli attacks in months, heaping the pressure on stalled U.S. Iran negotiations while Washington prepares fresh sanctions. Let's bring in Bloomberg Senior Editor Wendy Benjamin, and Wendy, it's a big day. The ceasefire expiring today. I mean, the question is now what for the U.S.-Iran conflict? Yeah. Well, you're you're right, Paul, that the ceasefire is technically over on Monday.
黎巴嫩遭遇数月来以色列袭击最致命的一天，这给陷入僵局的美国与伊朗谈判施加了压力，而华盛顿正准备实施新的制裁。让我们请来彭博社资深编辑温迪·本杰明，温迪，这是重要的一天。停火协议今天到期。我的意思是，现在的问题是美国与伊朗冲突将何去何从？是的。嗯，你说得对，保罗，停火协议在技术上于周一结束。
The trouble is that Trump and Iran both sort of declared a dead a while back. So it's a marker that we're watching. But, I don't think it's actually going to change much. Right now, we are in this weird stalemate paralysis where nothing is really moving. Iran and Oman supposedly are talking about that, a deal to administer the Strait of Hormuz. But Iran says the U.S.., well, the U.S. isn't a party to those talks, and Iran says that it'll have nothing to do with how they relate to the United States.
问题是特朗普和伊朗双方都在一段时间前宣布了某种形式的死亡。所以这是我们正在关注的一个标志。但我认为这实际上不会改变太多。目前，我们处于一种奇怪的僵局和瘫痪状态，没有什么真正在推进。伊朗和阿曼据称正在讨论一项管理霍尔木兹海峡的协议。但伊朗表示美国……嗯，美国不是这些谈判的一方，伊朗表示这与他们与美国的关系无关。
The United States says they're not interested in talking, that they're going to unleash undefined economic pressure tactics on Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he'll announce those this week. And so you're absolutely right. I mean, we're in this weird sort of, you know, holding pattern. But Israel, for its part, decided, you know, is still attacking Iran's proxies like Hezbollah, while at the same time, Jared Kushner, the president's son in law, is in Egypt talking about Gaza.
美国表示他们不感兴趣谈判，他们将对伊朗采取未明确的经济施压策略。财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示他将在本周宣布这些措施。所以你说得完全正确。我的意思是，我们处于这种奇怪的、你知道的、等待状态。但以色列方面，你知道，仍在攻击伊朗的代理人如真主党，与此同时，总统的女婿贾里德·库什纳正在埃及讨论加沙问题。
So there's a lot of related things going on, but nothing toward ending the war or lowering gas prices around the world. In the meantime, what do we make of President Trump's new strategy? We heard about the sort of maximum pressure economic pressure strategy last week. Is, is this still kind of the way forward, and is it likely to be effective, given we know how willing these Iranian regime is, is, is to just bunker down?
所以有很多相关的事情在发生，但没有任何事情朝着结束战争或降低全球油价的方向发展。与此同时，我们如何看待特朗普总统的新策略？我们上周听说了那种极限施压经济策略。这仍然是前进的方向吗，考虑到我们知道伊朗政权多么愿意躲藏起来，这策略可能有效吗？
Well, you're absolutely right, Heidi. I mean, Iran has proven not only in the last 47 years, but across the centuries that they don't capitulate easily. And, and, you know, they are not a democracy. They're not answerable to the people of Iran. So, yes, I mean, the economy of Iran is in rough shape. They've got inflation around 77%, I think was one of the latest figures. And, you know, things are bad and thousands of people have died.
嗯，你说得完全正确，海蒂。我的意思是，伊朗不仅在过去的47年里，而且在几个世纪以来都证明了他们不会轻易屈服。而且，你知道，他们不是民主国家。他们不对伊朗人民负责。所以，是的，我的意思是，伊朗经济状况糟糕。他们的通货膨胀率大约在77%，我想这是最新的数据之一。而且，你知道，情况很糟糕，成千上万的人已经死亡。
But they, um, but we don't really know how effective these measures will be. Scott Bessent and said they will be, you know, the toughest the world has ever seen. You know, that sort of Trumpian sort of hyperbole. But there isn't a lot they can do. One of the problems is that China buys 90% of Iran's exports, particularly oil. And Trump is meeting with XI Jinping, the Chinese leader, later this year, and he doesn't really want anything to mess that up.
但他们，嗯，但我们真的不知道这些措施会有多有效。斯科特·贝森特说它们将是，你知道的，世界前所未见的最严厉措施。你知道，那种特朗普式的夸张说法。但他们能做的其实不多。问题之一是中国购买了伊朗90%的出口产品，尤其是石油。而特朗普今年晚些时候将会见中国领导人习近平，他不想让任何事情破坏那次会面。
So Iran is already weighted down with more than 2000 sanctions on its institutions, people. Things like that. So they would have to turn to China, um, and sort of punish China for that. But that's not really a sustainable strategy either, because of the US's reliance on Chinese exports and his meeting with XI Jinping coming up. So we're really sort of all mystified about what Scott Bessent is going to pull out of his top hat.
所以伊朗已经背负着对其机构、人员等实施的2000多项制裁。因此，他们不得不转向中国，嗯，并某种程度上为此惩罚中国。但那也不是一个可持续的策略，因为美国依赖中国的出口，而且与习近平的会面即将到来。所以我们真的都对斯科特·贝森特会从帽子里变出什么花样感到困惑。
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