以色列空袭黎巴嫩，美韩军演缩减，布油逼近89美元

AND BE A VERY GOOD MONDAY MORNING. LIVE FROM LONDON, THIS IS "DAYBREAK EUROPE." I’M CHAD THOMAS ASK HERE ARE YOUR TOP STORIES. LEBANON TENSIONS FLARE AS ISRAEL LAUNCHES STRIKES TARGETING HEZBOLLAH. IT ADDS PRESSURE TO STALLED U.S.-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS. BRENT CRUDE EDGES HIGHER. PLUS, JAPAN’S ECONOMIC GROWTH COMES IN A LITTLE MORE THAN HALF THE ESTIMATE, LEAVING TOUGH CHOICES AHEAD FOR THE BANK OF JAPAN. NOW LET’S LOOK AT THE MARKETS THIS MORNING STARTING WITH THE HANG SENG WITH THE KOSPI CLOSED.

THAT’S THE MARKET WE’VE BEEN WATCHING SO CLOSELY OVER THE LAST WEEKS. NATIONAL DAY IN SOUTH KOREA SO THE HANG SENG GOING HIGHER. THE BIGGEST GAINER IS CASINO OWNER SANS CHINA. U.S. FUTURES A LITTLE BIT UP THIS MORNING AS INVESTORS WEIGH WHAT’S HAPPENING IN THE MIDDLE EAST AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED ATTACKS BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND THEN OVER IN THE U.S., WE’RE LOOKING AT NASDAQ FUTURES ALSO UP SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING.

WE HAD WEAKER RETAIL SALES OUT OF THE U.S. ON FRIDAY AND THE WEAKER CONSUMER SENTIMENT AS WELL. HOWEVER, WE’LL BE WATCHING THE TECH STOCKS THIS MORNING WHERE WE’LL BE LOOKING TO SEE THE THERE’S A BOUNCE IN THE REPORT OVER THE WEEKEND THAT ANTHROPIC IS SAYING THAT THE Q2 REV NU JUMPED 14FOLD. LET’S LOOK AT THE ASSET CLASSES. BRENT CRUDE UP A BIT TO ABOUT JUST UNDER $89 A BARREL. THE RENEWED ATTACKS ON LEBANON TO ISRAEL ADD TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

SOME ARE LOOKING AT THE WEAK U.S. DATA FROM FRIDAY TO MEAN THAT FED RATE HIKES ARE OFF FROM SEPTEMBER. THAT SAID, WE HAD TREASURY AUCTIONS LAST WEEK SEEING SOME OF THE HIGHEST YIELDS IN DECADES. THE DOLLAR IS WEAKER. HEADING FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT DAY OF LOSSES AND HOVERING NEW LEVELS LAST SEEN IN MAY AND LET’S LOOK AT SOME OF THE KEY RISKS AHEAD THIS WEEK. ON WEDNESDAY, FRESH C.P.I. DATA OUT OF THE U.K. EXPECTED TO SHOW INFLATION TICKING HIGHER IN JULY AND ON FRIDAY, FLASH C.M.I.

DATA FROM ACROSS THE GLOBE. LOTS TO TELL US THIS MORNING. LET’S GET STARTED. ♪

CHINESE TECH STOCKS LEADING GAINS IN ASIA WITH SOUTH KOREAN MARKETS CLOSED FOR THAT PUBLIC HOLIDAY. THE LATEST FROM WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. WINNIE: GOOD MORNING, ASIAN STOCKS EDGING HIGHER FOR A FOURTH SESSION ON THE BACK OF A WEAKER DOLLAR. AS YOU MENTIONED, TECH STOCKS ARE LEADING GAINS WITH KOREA ON HOLIDAY SO IN EFFECT, HONG KONG IS IN THE SPOTLIGHT TODAY. ALIBABA SAID THAT THEIR AI MODEL SAW MORE THAN 3 BECOME DOWNLOADS IN THE MAST SIX MONTHS SURPASSING THAT OF META AND GOOGLE MAKING IT THE TOP AI MODEL IN THE WORLD.

MORE WEAKNESS IN JAPANESE STOCKS AFTER THE LATEST G.D.P. NUMBERS SHOWED AN UNEXPECTED SLOWDOWN IN THE COUNTRY’S ECONOMIC GROWTH. WE WERE AWAITING FOR THAT ECONOMIC DATA RELEASE FROM CHINA FOR JULY AND HENCE WE ARE SEEING A BIT OF STOCKS UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE ONSHORE MARKET. WE FLIP THE BOARD AND LOOK AT A PREVIEW FOR THAT SET OF NUMBERS BECAUSE WE’RE EXPECTING THOSE NUMBERS IN A COUPLE OF HOURS. A BIT OF A DELAY FROM THE URN TIME BUT FOR NOW THE EXPECTATION IS FOR THE NUMBERS TO CONFIRM THE ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN WE SAW IN CHINA.

RETAIL SALES HERE EXPECTED TO RISE ABOUT 1.5% YEAR OVER YEAR FOR JULY, A BIT OF AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS MONTH. HOWEVER FIXED ASSET INVESTMENTS AND PROPERTY INVESTMENT A BIT OF A WORSENING POSSIBLY COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH SO OVERALL THAT BROAD-BASED SLOWDOWN IN THE ECONOMIC GROWTH IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE. ACROSS ASSETS, WE LOOK AT THE IMPACT FROM A WEAKER YOU SAID DOLLAR LIFTING THE OVERALL ASIAN CURRENCIES.

LEADING GAINS TODAY -- STRENGTHENING BY .5% AND HAVING ITS BEST DAY SINCE APRIL. JAPANESE STOCKS ALSO VIRGINIA TECHENING WHILE THE 10-YEAR YIELD HERE REACHING ITS HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE 1996 ON THE BACK OF THAT CONCERN AROUND FISCAL SPE SPENDING AS WELL AS EXPECTATIONS FOR THE BANK OF JAPE TO RAISE RATES. WE ARE SEEING THE 10-YEAR YIELD FOR CHINESE BONDS IN ITSELF LOWEST LEVEL IN ABOUT A YEAR AND THAT IS COMING AFTER THAT RICH LIQUIDITY THAT WE ARE SEEING AS WELL AS THE BROAD ECONOMIC -- BROAD WEAK ECONOMIC BACKDROP.

BACK TO YOU, CHAD. CHAD: WE’LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY FOR THAT DELAYED CHINESE ECONOMIC DATA COMING LATER THIS MORNING. TURNING TO THE MIDDLE EAST, LEBANON HAS SEEN ITS DEADLIEST FIGHTING IN MONTHS AFTER ISRAEL STRIKES KILLED A TOTAL OF 11 PEOPLE INCLUDING A SENIOR HEZBOLLAH COMMANDER. LET’S BRING IN STAN WILLIAMS FROM JERUSALEM FOR MORE ON THIS STORY. DAN, WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THIS DECISION TO LAUNCH THESE STRIKES? DAN: ACCORDING TO THE ISRAELIS THIS WAS ESSENTIALLY A RETALIATION FOR THE SIRES WOUNDING OF THREE SOLDIERS IN AN EXPLOSIVE DRONE STRIKES.

THEY WERE USED BY ASTONISHING EFFECT BY HEZBOLLAH EARLIER THIS SUMMER, ESPECIALLY THOSE GUIDED BY FIBER ON THETIC CABES. THE FACT THIS SEEMS TO HAVE RESUMED NOW MIGHT HAVE PUT ISRAELI ON EDGE. BUT THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER TOOK THE UNUSUAL MOVE OVER THE WEEKEND OF PUBLISHING A DEFENSE OF ISRAEL’S STRIKES SAYING HEZBOLLAH USED CIVILIANS AS HUMAN SHIELDS. THE SENSITIVITY OF SUCH BLOODSHED AT THIS JUNCTURE ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE IRAN-OMAN DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS AND TALKS TO FIND A WAY TO DEFANG HEZBOLLAH BY ISRAEL AND SO FAR THEY’VE BEEN IN SEVERAL ROUNDS WITH SOME PROGRESS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SAY THE COUNTRY IS OVER THE LINE YET.

CHAD: DAN, GERARD KUSHNER IS IN THE REGION THIS WEEK REPORTED BY MEETING WITH THE LEADER OF HAMAS ON SUNDAY AND VISITING ISRAEL LATER IN THE WEEK. ANY SIGN THIS COULD MAKE SOME PROGRESS ON THE U.S.-BACKED PLANS FOR GABA? DAN: IT WOULD APPEAR SO BECAUSE WE UNDERSTAND THAT KUSHNER ON THE FIRST LEG OF THIS TRIP MET DIRECTLY WITH THE LEADER OF HAMAS IN CAIRO AIMED AT CONVERTING PRESIDENT TRUMP’S PEACE PLAN FOR GAZA FROM THE INITIAL CEASE-FIRE TO THE PEACE-MAKING STAGE.

THE AMERICA’S MERGE IS HAMAS MUST DISARM IN IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE PLAN. WE’LL HEAR FROM KUSHNER WHEN HE COMES TODAY AND VISITS WITH THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER. FOR NOW IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE AMERICANS AND ISRAELIS ARE TRYING TO FIND A WAY DIPLOMATICALLY TO TALK HAMAS DUE DISARMAMENT. IN EFFECT ENDING ITS MILITARIZED ROLE POTENTIALLY TURNING IT INTO ANOTHER PALESTINIAN POLITICAL PARTY. CHAD: DAN, THANK YOU SO MUCH.

THE U.S. IS PREPARING FRESH SANCTIONS ON IRAN TO TRY AND FORCE A BREAKTHROUGH IN NEGOTIATION. LET’S BRING IN JILL FROM HONG KONG. WHAT ARE THESE LIKELY NEW MEASURES THAT WOULD POTENTIALLY BE COMING? JILL: HI, CHAD. AT THIS POINT IT’S KIND OF INCLEAR WHAT TYPES OF MEASURES THE U.S. COULD IMPLEMENT. YOU COULD ARGUE SECONDARY SANCTIONS. MIGHT BE SOMETHING THAT THE U.S. COULD CONSIDER BUT THEN AGAIN, THOSE TYPES OF MEASURES WOULD ULTIMATELY HAVE SOME DETRIMENTAL EFFECT ON THE U.S.

ECONOMY WHICH AT THIS POINT YOU’D THINK THE U.S. WOULD LIKELY BE TRYING TO AVOID. IT’S KIND OF DIFFICULT TO SEE WHERE EXACTLY WE GO FROM HERE IN TERMS OF PUTTING THE ECONOMIC SQUEEZE ON IRAN BUT THAT IS SOMETHING TRUMP HAS BROUGHT TO THE TABLE. UNTIL WE GET MORE CLARITY AT THIS POINT YOU HAVE TO TAKE WHAT WE HEARD FROM THE U.S. PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP AS WELL AS THE SECRETARY OF THE TREASURE SCOTT BESSENT BUT IT’S HARD TO SEE HOW THAT SQUEEZES IRAN THAT MUCH MORE.

CHAD: THIS CONFLICT IN THE MIDDLE EAST HAS STRAINED RELATIONS WITH SOME OF THE U.S.’S KEY ALLIES, INCLUDING SOUTH KOREA. TALK US THROUGH WHAT’S HAPPENED JUST OVERALL. ON THAT FRONT. JILL: THE U.S. PRESIDENT POSTED IN A SOCIAL POST THAT SAID HE WOULD ASK THE PENTAGON TO SCALE BACK ON SOME OF THESE MILITARY DRILLS THAT WERE SET TO START TODAY. IT WAS SET TO BE A SERIES OF JOINT MILITARY DRILLS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SOWS KOREA OVER 10 DAYS.

TRUMP CITED ONE, HIS RELATIONSHIP WITH KIM JONG-UN OF NORTH KOREA AND KIND OF A SUGGESTION THAT SOME OF THIS MAY HAVE TO DO WITH SOUTH KOREA’S REFUSAL TO HELP THE U.S. IN THE IRAN WAR. KIND OF INDICATIVE OF SOME BROADER FRUSTRATION THAT IS FRUMP PERHAPS FEELS OVER U.S. ALLIES AND THAT LACK OF SUPPORT HE’S MAYBE LOOKING FOR. HAD: JILL, THANK YOU FOR JOINING US THIS MORNING. STILL AHEAD, WE’LL DISCUSS MARKETS WITH HEAD OF STRATEGY AND RESEARCH AT PICTET WEALTH MANAGEMENT.

THAT’S NEXT AND THIS IS BLOOMBERG. CHAD: WELCOME BACK TO BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. JAPANESE GROWTH