美伊冲突或陷永久战争，专家称战事将反复升级

As you write, after months spent striking each other with bombs and missiles and arm wrestling over ceasefire terms, it is clear neither side can produce a decisive victory. So dare we use the term forever war? I think we might, and I think part of what we have seen is that this isn't just a single conflict. This is actually part of a broader conflict, a broader cycle of rivalry and enmity that, frankly, we saw the start of this conflict back when Israel and The US bombed Iranian nuclear sites in 2025.

And so we're seeing this continuation of a conflict that cannot be won militarily. There's no way to actually have a strategy that ends this. And even things that might look like an end are really just opportunities to sit back, rebuild, reload, and get ready for the next round. That's what we've seen already. And, unfortunately, that's what we're likely to continue to see if history is any bellwether. Becca, how much of it is not understanding the mission or maybe The United States?

I thought this was about denuclearization of Iran. We've gotten very far away from that. So is that part of the problem? What's the goal? What's the endgame? That's a great question, and I think that is absolutely part of the problem. If you look at the history of protracted wars, which we are making a call that this is, so often having different political aims that cannot be quickly and easily met and often change over time make it harder to find a diplomatic resolution.

And that in itself continues to fuel these wars and make them continue. And I think that's very much what we're seeing here where initially some of the, you know, objectives that The US put out were things like regime change. Then it turned into Iran's defense industrial based degradation. And now it is very much focused on denuclearization, but at the same time, a lot of the actual emphasis of action is on the Strait Of Hormuz instead.

So we are seeing this vacillating set of objectives that makes it really hard, particularly when you compare it to what Iran's objective is, which at the end of the day is just survival. Your projections are are pretty scary here in this essay, Becca. As you already mentioned, the ongoing war will see repeated cycles of fighting, but you go on to say each round of violence will be bloodier. You see escalation, not just longer endurance, but escalation in this conflict.

I see adaptation. I think this is one of the things that happens when you have these pauses and these opportunities to essentially rebuild and sit back and say, what is my adversary doing? What strategy have they adopted? And they try and change based on that. This is very much what we've seen in places like Ukraine, where Russia and Ukraine have innovated and adapted to each other's, you know, different tactics and strategies.

And that has, you know while it has kept Russia from overrunning Ukraine after its wanton invasion, it has also fueled and continued the war. And I think here, we are already starting to see that where you can see different phases of this current US Iran conflict. They are changing an emphasis where the focus is on different geography, different domains, different tactics, and I think we will continue to see that as things go on.

So we're not necessarily saying that there's going to be a sharp escalation, but we are going to see changes in tactics, and sometimes those can be very much read and perceived as an escalation. Escalation. You know, it's interest it's interesting, Becca. You know, we've had folks on air and talking to them and said, well, it's about time The US did something. This has not been a one or two year thing. This has been going on for decades.

The animosity, their words, from Iran to The United States. So it is complicated if you take a look at the history between The United States and Iran. Does that just mean that it's going to take a while to figure out the way forward? Yeah. It absolutely would, and it will require direct talks at some point to actually have true diplomacy and true negotiations. And thus far, the preference has been for The US and Iran to act through third parties.

And that might make sense when we're trying to negotiate something like a ceasefire or an interim pause to the fighting. But at some point, you're going to need to unpack a lot of these problems and find ways to do true compromise. But I think another thing to notice, to note as we are talking about is The United States trapped in a potential forever war is the potential for this to go in a few different directions. The United States is remarkably good at, war initiation that is starting wars, but it is notoriously bad at war termination.

Oftentimes, you see that The United States, doesn't get scared, but they do get tired. And, eventually, there is the emphasis on just walking away. And that is something that we could see president Trump do, but that is not going to resolve the underlying issues and therefore still set the conditions for continued conflict. See why Becca was so instrumental in war planning and war gaming when she was at the Pentagon, and we're so lucky to have her now Mhmm.

At Bloomberg. Part of your charge, Becca, is geoeconomics, and I'm wondering what you're expecting this week. We talked about this a bit earlier with the treasury secretary promising this one two punch, not constant kinetic action, but in fact, an economic stranglehold coupled with the blockade in the strait. Does that lead to a breakthrough? This waiting game leads to what? I think it leads to more of the same in part because it's going to take time for some of those economic tools to actually have an impact, and that sometimes runs counter to the military tools that they are relying on forcing their economic strategies.

Here, I'm really referencing the blockade where we have seen all of these US ships at sea for months and months on end with large discussions over, frankly, how sailors are able to maintain their mental health and their well-being. And that means that if the blockade is going to be in place for a really long time, there are going to be larger readiness issues that the US military is going to need to contend with if it needs to be in support of some of these economic, strategies.

Which leads me to ask you, in your story, you write protracted wars tend to expand either geographically or in the number of belligerents. I mean, we've already seen other areas of The Middle East get involved in this. Does this continue to broaden in your view? I think it most likely does. It doesn't necessarily mean that it broadens entirely all the time, I think we've already seen, you know, the Red Sea start to become an area of geography.

We've seen The United States fire on ships as far as the Indian Ocean in part of its blockade enforcement. So, again, if the emphasis is on these economic tools, we might see the blockade go further and further out of the Middle East to try and get after, you know, Iranian oil traversing around the globe. So there's an opportunity for expansion. But, I mean, not to be too gloom and doom even though that is my charge.

You know, if you look at the history of world wars, this is often how they start. They expand slowly and then all of a sudden. Well Here. Yeah. The references to history here and then Yeah. More in necessity are really important. You know, this is something we talked about early. Like, does this become a world war? I mean, China you know, I think about the role of China, the relationship China has with Iran. Like, how do you guys talk about that a lot?

Should the government is the government potentially thinking that this is where it goes? US allies thinking where it goes? I think everyone is worried about it, but I think, you know, right now, there is this commitment to try and keep it as contained as possible. And I think you mentioned China. I don't think China wants to join the fray in any form. That said, China is reportedly prov

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