美国零售销售意外下滑，K型经济挤压中产

TOM: GOOD NOON, EVERYONE. SOME SAY WEALTH MANAGEMENT. IT IS A FRIDAY IN THE SUMMER. IT'S GOING TO BE AN INTERESTING ONE. WE BOUNCE OFF A NEGATIVE STATISTIC ON AMERICAN CONSUMPTION. SCARLET: RETAIL FELL UNEXPECTEDLY. TOM: TOO MANY AREN'T. IT'S BEEN AN ODD WEEK, DON'T YOU THINK? SCARLET: ABSOLUTELY. OUR RADIO LISTENERS ARE JOINING US AS WELL. TOM: WE WELCOME ALL OF YOU, IT IS A SIMULCAST. MORNING SPECIFICALLY 92 FM IN BOSTON BUT SERIOUS IN ALL THE OTHER WAYS ACROSS TELEVISION AND RADIO.

AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION. AWAY FROM THE MATH HERE, MIKE WILSON ON WHERE ARE WE GOING ON RATE OF RETURN? SCARLET: ALSO JOINING US AS THE HEAD OF CITI GLOBAL WEALTH AT WORK IN THE RESEARCH SHE HAS DONE INTO PEOPLE LIVING LONGER AND MAINTAINING THEIR FINANCIAL HEALTH. TOM: THEY ARE ALL THINKING ABOUT IT, BUT SHE IS FULL-TIME.

EVERYTHING SHE SAYS IS ABOUT LONGEVITY AND EVENT PLANNING FOR THAT.

AND WE WILL ADDRESS BASEBALL, AS YOU CAN DO IN AUGUST. A LITTLE MORE ON FUTURES EARLIER, BUT I'M SORRY, SCARLET, THE VIX IS REALLY IMPORTANT. IT IS A BULL MARKET EVEN THOUGH THE INDETERMINATE. SCARLET: VERY TAME. THE S&P 500 STILL SET TO CLOSE UP FOR A THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK. WE LOOK AT YIELDS HIGHER ACROSS THE CURVE. OF COURSE, DATED THIS WEEK SHOWED INFLATION. TOM: THEY ARE HIGHER? SCARLET: IT IS A CROSS ASSET DATA CHECK.

THE DOLLAR NOT DOING THAT MUCH. AND CRUDE OIL HOLDING IN THE LOW 80'S. TOM: I COMPLETELY MISSED THIS 30 YEAR BOND. HOW ABOUT THAT 7% 30 YEAR MORTGAGE. WE START STRONG. THIS IS BECOME HUGELY SUCCESSFUL FOR US, DIFFERENT VOICES FROM BLOOMBERG NEWS WITH US THIS MORNING. ISABEL LEE IS WITH US AND LILY IS WITH US AS WELL HERE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING. BUT JOE MATHIEU IS WITH US HERE AS HE LOOKS TO RADIO AND TELEVISION PHONING ON HERE WITH BALANCE OF POWER AS WELL.

TO ME, THE LESSONS LEARNED OF THIS WEEK, BUT FOR EVERYONE RIVETED IN THE NATION BY FOREIGN ABILITY. DO YOU HAVE ANY VISIBILITY ON THE TURNOUT OF THE MIDTERMS?

WE HAVE CONVENTIONAL WISDOM WHICH IS THAT THE ENERGY IS WITH THE DEMOCRATS. THE QUESTION IS ARE THEY RUNNING FOR SOMETHING OR SOMETHING RUNNING AGAINST DONALD TRUMP, AND THAT IS GOING TO HELP TO ANIMATE THAT TURNOUT BECAUSE EVEN LOOK AT TEXAS WHERE YOU SAW DEMOCRATS TURNING OUT A HAND OF REPUBLICANS IN PRIMARY ELECTIONS. THEY ARE GOING TO BE IN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY, A LITTLE BIT LESS SIGNIFICANT IN THIS PARTICULAR CONVERSATION, BUT WHERE IS THE PRICING GAS ON ELECTION DAY?

WE ARE AT $4.14 HERE IN NEW YORK THE GET THE PRESIDENT IS GOING TO GARDEN CITY. YOU KNOW GARDEN CITY, IT'S ONLY 18 MILES FROM HERE AND IT BEARS NO RESEMBLANCE TO THIS CITY. HE WILL BE SURROUNDED BY FIRST RESPONDERS AND HE'S NOT GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT AFFORDABILITY. TOM: GARDEN CITY IS SURROUNDS THAT PEOPLE WHO OWN A BMW WITH A MERCEDES IN THE GARAGE. THE REPUBLICANS CAN'T WIN WITH THAT AUDIENCE. JOE: SO WHY IS HE GOING THERE?

HE CALLS IT A DEMOCRATIC HOAX. YOU ARE LOOKING AT THE DATA, YOU KNOW BETTER.

THE DATA SHOWED THAT RETAIL SALES FOR THE MONTH OF JULY FELL UNEXPECTEDLY. LILY MAYER, YOU COVER SPECIALTY RETAIL FOR BLOOMBERG NEWS AND A LOT OF THE BIG ASPIRATIONAL BRANDS. DOES WHAT YOU SEE IN THIS RETAIL SALES REPORT MESH WITH WHAT YOU'VE BEEN REPORTING ON? LILY: WE'VE REPORTED JUST A FEW WEEKS AGO THAT UNDER ARMOUR SAW SOFTNESS IN TRENDS AND WE'VE BEEN SEEING A BIT OF A MIXED CONSUMER PICTURE OVER THE LAST FEW MONTHS.

MANY OF THE RETAILERS ARE STILL YET TO REPORT, SO IT WILL BE REALLY INTERESTING TO HEAR WHAT THEY SAY. BUT YES, UNDER ARMOUR SAID THEY RECEIVED SOFTER DEMAND, SO I'M CURIOUS TO SEE WHAT OTHER RETAILERS WILL SAY. SCARLET: ABSOLUTELY. AND I'M WONDERING AS WELL, AS WE SEE THIS K-SHAPED ECONOMY, YOU'VE ALSO BEEN REPORTING ON EVEN WHEN IT COMES TO PEOPLES' HOBBIES, THOSE THAT CAN AFFORD IT ARE SPLURGING BIG TIME. THE RUNNING CULTURE HAS COME WAY UP SALE.

LILY: WE WROTE A STORY ABOUT HIGH-END RUNNING SPENDING. INSTEAD OF SHOPPING AT PLACES A LITTLE MORE AFFORDABLE LIKE NIKE, ADIDAS, SHOPPERS ARE BUYING $350 RUNNING SHORTS. TOM: WHEN YOU WERE IN COLLEGE IT WAS A ROAD TRIP OF 25 MILES TO GO TO FREEPORT, MAINE TO GO TO L.L. BEAN DRUNK AT 2:00 A.M. IN THE MORNING. DON'T TELL ME YOU'VE NEVER DONE THAT. LILY: I'VE NEVER DONE THAT. TOM: HOW ARE SHOPPING, 2:00 A.M. IN THE MORNING.

THAT RETAIL DAY IS GONE. EVERYBODY WANTS TO GO FANCY NOW. LILY: IT'S A TOTALLY DIFFERENT RETAIL SCENE AND I THINK RUNNING IS A REALLY GOOD EXAMPLE. PEOPLE ARE SPENDING WILD AMOUNTS OF MONEY TO SWEAT IN THESE ITEMS AND FOR THE $450 RUNNING THAT FOR $150 THAT HOLDS IN. TOM: WHEN JOE AND I KNEW IT WAS A $14 SWITCHER. SCARLET: LET ME BRING YOU INTO THIS CONVERSATION BECAUSE WHAT YOU'VE BEEN WRITING ABOUT IS AS FOLKS ARE SPENDING $350 ON NIKE MESH SHORTS, YOU HAVE A LOT OF WEALTH ADVISORS AND INFLUENCERS USING SOCIAL MEDIA TO REALLY TALK UP HOW THE WEALTHY, THE RICH ARE SAVING A LOT OF MONEY ON TAXES, SOMETHING THAT ORDINARY PEOPLE ARE BASICALLY EATING UP.

LILY: ORDINARY PEOPLE MAY BE BECAUSE THEY WANT TO BUY $100 LULULEMON PANTS WHEN THEY GO TO THEIR YOGA CLASSES. A TAX OUT OF THAT IS A STRATEGY USED, USUALLY RESERVED FOR THE ULTRA NET WORTH. YOU BASICALLY THINK OF MAXIMIZING YOUR AFTER-TAX RETURNS. IF SOMEONE TELLS ME THEY ARE MAKING $500,000 A YEAR, I AM LIKE, BUT HOW MUCH OF THAT? TOM: MANAGING MONEY TO MAKE LOSSES? ISABELLE: THAT IS WHAT THE PEOPLE DO, SO NOW THESE ARE BEING MARKETED TO TIKTOK AND YOUTUBE AND INSTAGRAM AND RETAIL INVESTORS ARE EATING THIS UP.

SOME FIRMS ARE LOWERING AS LITTLE AS $1000. YOU HAVE SOME PEOPLE SAYING IT IS NOT WORTH IT. TOM: PUT THE BLOOMBERG MONEY CORK IN MY MOUTH. ISABELLE: YOU DO MANUFACTURE LOSSES SO THAT YOU WILL HAVE MORE TAKE-HOME PAY. BUT THIS WHOLE STRATEGY TIES PEOPLE EVER CLOSER TO THEIR WEALTH ADVISORS. ISABELLE: SOME INCLUDE SHORTING STOCKS, SOME INCLUDE BORROWING MONEY. THIS IS A STORY, WE TALKED TO SOME PEOPLE AND SOME OF THEM ARE REALLY INTO IT BUT SOME ARE LIKE NO, IT'S NOT WORTH IT.

I COME BACK TO THE IDEA THAT IT REALLY IS ABOUT INFLATION. AND WE HAD DATED THIS WEEK THAT SHOWED INFLATION SLOWED, BUT IT IS STILL ABOVE 3%. WE KNOW COST-OF-LIVING IS TOP OF MIND FOR VOTERS. I'M NOT SURE WHERE IT RANKS FOR THE PRESIDENT WAS OBVIOUSLY TRYING TO END THE WAR IN IRAN AND WANTS A PERPETRATOR WITH THE REFLECTING POOL. JOE: WE ARE GOING TO TALK TO MIKE FLOOD LATER ON, MAINSTREAM CAUCUS, NEBRASKA. HE'S HOPING THEY WILL ASK HIM ABOUT THE HOUSING BILL THAT THEY GOT PAST THAT THE PRESIDENT REFUSED TO SIGN.

THERE IS A MASSIVE DISCONNECT HERE AT THE PRESIDENT SUGGESTS THAT AFFORDABILITY IS A DEMOCRATIC HOAX AND HAS PREVIOUSLY SAID THAT THEY WON ON AFFORDABILITY. THE PART I DON'T GET IS AFTER THAT TAKE THIS WEEK, WE DIDN'T HEAR ANYTHING FROM THE PRESIDENT. NO VICTORY LAP, THERE WASN'T EVEN A BORING STATEMENT FROM THE COMMUNICATIONS OFFICE. YOU ALMOST GET THE SENSE THAT THE WHITE HOUSE HAS STOPPED CARING. TOM: I'VE GOT TO ASK BECAUSE IT IS SUCH NEWS FRONT AND CENTER, AND THAT IS THE OR IN THE EASTERN MILITARY.

YOU ARE JUST HARDWIRED INTO THIS. SHOULD WE EXPECT NEWS THIS WEEKEND? JOE: NO. I AM GETTING A LITTLE BORED. THERE IS A RELUCTANCE TO GO ALONG INTO THE WEEKEND BECAUSE WERE ASKING ME ABOUT THIS. WE ARE LOW-KEYINHG IT AND IT LOOKS LIKE A LONG-TERM ECONOMIC STRANGLE AS OPPOSED TO A KINETIC MILITARY EXCURSION. TOM: IN BOSTON, THE FENWAY SPORTS GROUP OF BOSTON ANNOUNCES THEY ARE LIVERPOOL IN SOME FORM. WILL THAT MONEY GO DIRECTLY TO SAVE THE RELIEF?

JOE: I AM SURE THAT HE WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT. I'M NOT SURE DAVID WOULD HAVE DONE THAT WITH THE MONEY, THOUGH. CAN'T YOU DO SOMETHING BETTER IN MASSACHUSETTS? TOM: IT IS A SALE IF BEZOS PICKS UP ANOTHER HUNT OF BRITISH SOCCER. I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I'M TALKING ABOUT HERE. JOE: YOU KNOW WHAT A HOTDOG COSTS AT FENWAY RIGHT NOW? $6.50. TOM: WHAT DOES A HOTDOG COST AT COSCO? $1.50. WRITING UP AN IMPORTANT ARTICLE ON TIKTOK.

COMING UP, AN IMPORTANT CONVERSATION. MIKE WILSON, YOU KNOW HIM FOR HIS ACUITY AT MORGAN STANLEY. MIKE WILSON HERE ON THE PATH TO THE PROPER RETIREMENT.

IT'S NOT JUST TIKTOK. IT'S

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