美股期货持平，美国对华无人机加征100%关税

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GOOD MORNING. HOW ARE YOU DOING? 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK. 10:00 A.M. IN LONDON. GOOD MORNING. I AM GUY JOHNSON, IN FOR VONNIE QUINN. LET'S SET YOU UP FOR THE DAY AHEAD. U.S. STOCKS NOT STAY FRESH RECORD HIGH. RETAIL SALES, U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT DATA ARE UP NEXT. CRUDE IS BOUNCING BACK. THIS IS TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT ON WHAT'S BEEN CALLED AN ECONOMIC ISOLATION PLAN FOR IRAN. AND 100% TARIFFS ON IMPORTED DRONES. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE WE ARE WITH THESE MARKETS.

HERE IS WINNIE HSU WITH THE LATEST IN HONG KONG.

A BIG FRIDAY NOW. WE HAD A DECENT WEEK IN ASIA WITH THE ASIAN STOCKS EMBASSY ON ASIA UP 2.6%. HAVING ITS BEST WEEK IN ABOUT TWO MONTHS. MEMORY STOCKS BEING SUPPORTED BY THOSE BULLISH OUTLOOKS FROM SANDISK. KOSPI UP 2.4%, LEADING GAINS IN ASIA. INFLOWS REACHING THE HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE APRIL. WE ARE SEEING FOREIGN INVESTORS COMING BACK INTO THE KOREAN MARKET. WE ARE SEEING THE JAPANESE YEN EDGING SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THE BANK OF JAPAN WILL HAVE TO RAISE RATES EARLIER.

WE LOOK AT WHERE THE WEEK IS STILL IN THE TECH STOCKS IN HONG KONG. SPECIFICALLY HSTECH HAVING ITS WORST WEEK IN TWO MONTHS. JD.COM HAD WEAK DOMESTIC DEMAND. WE WILL TAKE A VERY CLOSE LOOK ON THAT AS WELL.

GREAT STUFF. THANK YOU VERY MUCH INDEED. JUSTINA LEE IS HERE WITH WHAT WE ARE WATCHING IN EUROPE.

IT'S A QUIET FRIDAY FOR WHAT'S BEEN A QUITE WEAK IN EUROPE. THE STOXX 600 IS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY, DRAGGED DOWN BY SOME OF THE MINING NAMES. LOOKING AT CURRENCIES HERE, GENERALLY, IT IS A DAY OF BROAD DOLLAR WEAKNESS. WE SEE SOME STRENGTH, PARTICULARLY IN THE POUND BEFORE U.S. RETAIL SALES DATA LATER TODAY. IN TERMS OF BONDS, WE ARE SEEING GENERALLY BIG GAINS IN SOME OF THOSE BOND YIELDS WITH UNDERPERFORMING TREASURIES.

WE HAVE SOME PRETTY GOOD ECONOMIC NUMBERS OUT OF SWITZERLAND WITH THE GDP GROWTH BEATING EVERY SINGLE ANALYST ESTIMATE, RISING AT THE FASTEST PACE SINCE 2021. WHAT'S BEEN INTERESTING IS THIS SIS FRANK HAS BEEN DEPRECIATING WITH THIS CROSS RATE, AT THE WEAKEST SINCE LATE 2025. -- SWISS FRANC HAS BEEN DEPRECIATING WITH THIS CROSS RATE, AT THE WEAKEST SINCE LATE 2025. GUY: LET'S TALK ABOUT WHERE WE ARE IN THE UNITED STATES.

BIG DAY YESTERDAY, FRESH RECORDS. THIS MORNING, FUTURES ARE FAIRLY FLAT. YOU CAN SEE THAT WITH THE NASDAQ FUTURES. THEY ARE TURNING DOWN THE IDEA THAT THE FED WILL NEED TO RAISE RATES. THAT'S NEGATIVE FOR THE DOLLAR. THE ACTION YESTERDAY IN THE BOND MARKET, LET'S LOOK AT TENS AND 30'S. THIS IS THE PICTURE. IN SOME WAYS, IT IS THE FRONT END RESPONDING TO THE FED. THE 30 YEAR IS FASCINATING. IT'S RESPOND -- RESPONDING TO THIS COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL.

WE SAW THE EVIDENCE OF THAT YESTERDAY. 2001 WAS THE LAST TIME WE SAW THE U.S. HAD TO PAY THIS KIND OF MONEY TO GET THE 30 YEAR AWAY. WE WILL SHIP FROM HEGSETH TO BESSENT AS WE SEE THE ECONOMIC WAR. LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT WILL COME UP OVER THE NEXT HOUR. STEPHANIE GUILD WILL JOIN US. I AM FASCINATED TO SEE WHAT RETAIL SALES IS GOING TO TELL US AS WELL. ALL OF THIS IN THE CONTEXT AS WE WORK OUR WAY TOWARD JACKSON HOLE. LET'S TALK ABOUT TECH.

AS EVER, THERE'S A LOT OF NEWS THAT WE NEED TO DIG INTO. SOURCES TELL BLOOMBERG THAT OPENAI IS NOW ON TRACK TO DOUBLE ITS ANNUALIZED REVENUE, TOPPING $40 BILLION. THIS COMES AHEAD OF THE COMPANY'S PLANS FOR A WALL STREET DEBUT, AN IPO. JOINING US NOW TO DISCUSS IS MATT BLOXHAM. IF I WANTED TO IPO, I WOULD BASE MY REVENUE. IS THAT WHAT WE ARE SEEING HERE? IS THIS SETTING UP AN IPO OR IS THIS JUST THIS IS A COMPANY THAT IS EXPANDING VERY RAPIDLY?

I THINK IT'S MORE THE LATTER. YOU WANT TO PRESENT YOURSELF IN THE BEST POSSIBLE LIGHT FOR AN IPO. SOME COMPANIES HAVE PUSHED THINGS AGGRESSIVELY, PERHAPS CREATING AN UNSUSTAINABLE PICTURE. A BIT LIKE ANTHROPIC, IT'S A BIT DIFFERENT. THEY ARE BUILDING A BUSINESS. OPENAI HAS HAD TO TURBOCHARGE ITS DEVELOPMENT PATH THIS YEAR BECAUSE IT'S BEEN OVERTAKEN BY ANTHROPIC. THE DIFFERENCE HAS BEEN THIS FOCUS ON ENTERPRISE. CORPORATE CUSTOMERS, WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN ANTHROPIC'S FOCUS.

I THINK OPENAI HAS HAD TO KIND OF REALLY ACCELERATE ITS PIVOT INTO ENTERPRISE BECAUSE THAT'S WHERE THE REVENUE GROWTH OPPORTUNITY IS. GUY: YOU ARE SAYING IT'S BEHIND. DOES THAT MEAN IT'S BEHIND WHEN IT COMES TO BE IPO?

I WOULD HAVE SAID IT WOULD BE OPENAI FIRST AND THEN ANTHROPIC AND THAT HAS FLIPPED. THE SMART MONEY RIGHT NOW WOULD BE ON ANTHROPIC COMING FIRST AND OPENAI FOLLOWING. GUY: COMPETITION IS COMING AS WELL IN THE FORM OF THE CHINESE MODELS. YOU HAVE ONE THING IT WILL RIVAL WHAT WE ARE GETTING FROM OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC. I'M ASSUMING THE COST IS LOWER IN TERMS OF WHAT I IS THE CONSUMER OR I AS A CORPORATE WOULD END UP PAYING. -- AS THE CONSUMER OR I AS A CORPORATE WOULD END UP PLAYING.

PAYING.

ALSO THE FACT THAT THESE CHINESE MODELS ARE TYPICALLY OPEN SOURCE. THAT IS SOME OF THE NEWS WE ARE HEARING TODAY, WITH THEIR MOST ADVANCED MODEL, ALL OF THE WEIGHTS THAT DRIVE THESE MODELS BECOME OPEN. THAT'S THE BIG DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN THE LIKES OF ANTHROPIC VERSUS OPENAI. THE IDEA OF CLOSED VERSUS OPEN. BEING ABLE TO TAILOR THE MODEL TO YOUR OWN SPECIFIC APPLICATION IS IMPORTANT.

YOU BRING UP THE PRICING SHIFT WE ARE SEEING IN CHINA. IS IT BASICALLY THEM TRYING TO PUSH USERS TO UNDERUTILIZED POINTS OF THE DAY?

I THINK THERE IS A NUMBER OF THAT. THE DEEPSEEK PRICES AND THE DIFFERENTIATION BETWEEN PEAK AND OFF-PEAK AND THE LESS URGENT WORKLOAD INTO CHEAPER TIMES OF THE DAY FROM AN ENERGY CONSUMPTION PERSPECTIVE. IT IS CLASSIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION BEHAVIOR. THERE'S ANOTHER ANGLE TO THIS, ALL OF THESE COMPANIES, ALTHOUGH A LOT FOCUS ON THEIR MOST ADVANCED FRONTIER MODELS, THEY ALL HAVE A BIG STACK OF MODELS THAT CAN TARGET DIFFERENT TYPES OF CUSTOMERS.

PARTICULARLY AROUND PRICE SENSITIVITY. FOCUSING ON THE RELATIVE COST OF DEEPSEEK AND FURTHER DOWN, THERE'S A LOT MORE CHEAPER MODELS. FOR OPENAI AND ANTHROPIC, THERE ARE MUCH MORE PRICE COMPETITIVE MODELS IF YOU ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT LOWER PERFORMANCE. IN SOME SITUATIONS, LOWER PERFORMANCE IS FAIRLY FINE. GUY: MATT BLOXHAM ON THE LATEST TECH STORIES. IN WASHINGTON, THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION IS IMPOSING TARIFFS ON UP TO 100% OF IMPORTED DRONES.

AND THEIR COMPONENTS. THE MOVE FURTHER RAISING U.S.-CHINA TENSIONS AHEAD OF PRESIDENT TRUMP AND PRESIDENT XI JINPING'S SUMMIT, WHICH IS COMING UP THIS FALL. ROSS MATHESON JOINS US NOW TO TALK ABOUT THIS. WHAT'S THE OBJECTIVE HERE?

IT'S REALLY IN A WAY PART OF A PATENT ABOUT SETTING THE TABLE ON EITHER SIDE INTO THIS MEETING BETWEEN CGP AND DONALD TRUMP. YOU ARE SEEING A SERIES OF TIT-FOR-TAT ACTIONS THAT ARE HAPPENING INCLUDING TECH, DRONES IN THE SOLAR SECTOR MORE RECENTLY AS WELL. IT'S A WAY ABOUT PUTTING UP STALLS ON EITHER SAID AHEAD OF THIS -- SIDE AHEAD OF THIS MEETING. THIS IS TURNING BACK INTO A FULL-BLOWN TRADE CONFLICT. DONALD HAS AN INCENTIVE TO SHOW THE AMERICAN PEOPLE HE'S BEING TOUGH GOING INTO THAT MEETING.

XI JINPING HAS A SIMILAR INCENTIVE AT HOME BUT THEY CAN'T AFFORD TO HAVE A RESUMPTION OF A FULL-BLOWN TRADE CONFLICT ON EITHER SIDE. IT'S REALLY ABOUT SETTING THE TABLE AND TAKING THESE ACTIONS AGAINST EACH OTHER IN THAT LONG LIST OF SECTORS THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN RECENT WEEKS, BUT AVOIDING THINGS GOING TOO FAR IN EITHER DIRECTION. GUY: NEXT WEEK, LIFE'S GOING TO GET INTERESTING. WE HAVE SCOTT BESSENT ANNOUNCING HIS ECONOMIC ISOLATION PLAN FOR IRAN.

NOW, IT WOULD BE HARD TO ECONOMICALLY ISOLATE IRAN WITHOUT, IN SOME WAY, INVOLVING CHINA. HOW'S THAT GOING TO WORK AND IS IT FURTHER GOING TO RAISE TENSION?

IT'S GOING TO BE TO SEE THE DATA OF THE ECONOMIC ISOLATION PLANE. THE EFFORTS TO ISOLATE IRAN HAVE NOT FIXATED. THE REGIME HAS MANY YEARS OF THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND SANCTIONS AND OTHER FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC PRESSURE. THEY HAVE SHOWN THEY CAN DO THAT. IT'S UNCLEAR WHAT'S LEFT IN THE CUPBOARD TO PRESSURE IRAN. AND EFFORTS TO GET CHINA TO LEAN ON IRAN HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY SUCCESSFUL, EITHER. AS YOU SAY, THERE IS THE ELEMENT OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IRAN AND CHINA, LIKE OTHER COUNTRIES.

CHINA HAS BEEN HIT BY T

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