美国中期选举初选结果与通胀数据发布
Dems, GOP Evaluate 2026 Midterm Roadmap | Balance of Power 08/12/2026
通胀数据与国债收益率是宏观核心指标，直接影响美联储政策预期，建议关注后续PPI及PCE数据。
THIS IS "BALANCE OF POWER" LIVE FROM WASHINGTON DC. KAILEY: TONIGHT THE PRIMARY DUST SETTLES AFTER A SERIES OF RACES ACROSS SIX STATES LAST NIGHT. FAR LEFT DEMOCRATS SWING AND MISS IN WISCONSIN'S GUBERNATORIAL RACE, BUT PROGRESSIVES NOTCH A VICTORY IN MINNESOTA'S SENATE CONTEST, WHERE MIKE LINDELL FALLS SHORT IN HIS BID FOR THE GOVERNOR'S MANSION. THE PRESIDENT'S HANDPICKED SUCCESSOR IN SOUTH CAROLINA'S SENATE RACE HEADS TO A RUNOFF.
这里是来自华盛顿的“权力平衡”直播。凯莉：今晚，在昨晚六个州的系列竞选之后，初选的尘埃落定。极左民主党人在威斯康星州州长竞选中失手，但进步派在明尼苏达州参议员竞选中取得胜利，迈克·林德尔在州长竞选中落败。总统在南卡罗来纳州参议员竞选中钦点的继任者将进入决选。
WE WILL DISCUSS IT WITH FORMER MINNESOTA GOVERNOR TIM PLENTY -- TIM PLENTY A BED. A SUBDUED INFLATION REPORT. THE NEW NUMBERS EASING PRESSURE ON THE FED WITH CORE INFLATION RISING AT THE SLOWEST ANNUAL PACE SINCE 2021. BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCKEE IS ON HAND TO DIVE INTO IT ALL. AND TOTAL CONTROL. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS THE U.S. IS IN CONTROL OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ DESPITE FROZEN TALKS WITH IRAN. TEHRAN'S REORGANIZATION OF ITS MILITARY POINTS TO SIGNS THAT IT IS PREPARING FOR A PROTRACTED ERA OF CONFLICT.
我们将与前明尼苏达州州长蒂姆·普伦蒂讨论——蒂姆·普伦蒂·阿贝德。一份温和的通胀报告。新数据缓解了美联储的压力，核心通胀年率创2021年以来最慢增速。彭博社的迈克尔·麦基将深入分析这一切。以及完全控制。特朗普总统表示，尽管与伊朗的谈判冻结，但美国控制着霍尔木兹海峡。德黑兰对其军队的重组表明，它正在为长期冲突做准备。
A FORMER U.S. ENVOY FOR IRAN JOINS US FOR MORE ON THE ONGOING WAR. FROM BLOOMBERG'S WASHINGTON DC TO ALREADY BE AN AUD -- DC STUDIOS TO OUR RADIO AND TV AUDIENCES WORLDWIDE. WE BEGIN WITH A MAJOR SHAKEUP AT THE WHITE HOUSE, PRESIDENT TRUMP ANNOUNCING HIS LONG CONFIDANT PRESS SECRETARY KAROLINE LEAVITT IS LEAVING HER POST. HE WROTE THAT SHE WILL BE DEPARTING HER ROLE AT THE END OF THE MONTH SO SHE CAN SPEND MORE TIME WITH HER BEAUTIFUL YOUNG CHILDREN AND FAMILY, A DECISION I TOTALLY UNDERSTAND AND RESPECT.
一位前美国伊朗问题特使加入我们，讨论持续中的战争。从彭博社华盛顿演播室，到我们的全球广播和电视观众。我们首先从白宫的重大人事变动开始，特朗普总统宣布他的长期密友、新闻秘书卡罗琳·莱维特将离职。他写道，她将在本月底卸任，以便有更多时间陪伴她美丽的年幼孩子和家人，这是一个我完全理解并尊重的决定。
FOR MORE, LET'S GO LIVE TO THE NORTH LAWN OF THE WHITE HOUSE, WHERE BLOOMBERG'S JEFF MASON IS STANDING BY. IF SHE'S LEAVING, DO WE KNOW WHO WILL REPLACE HER? CAN ANYONE? JEFF: INDEED. WE DON'T EVEN KNOW IF HE'S PLANNING TO REPLACE HER. HE PROBABLY WELL. THE PRESS SECRETARY IS A JOB THAT ALL ADMINISTRATIONS HAVE HAD FOR YEARS. THE TRUTH IS IN THIS ADMINISTRATION PRESIDENT TRUMP SERVES AS HIS OWN PRESSER. -- HIS OWN PRESS SECRETARY IN MANY WAYS, JUST AS HE SERVES AS HIS OWN POLITICAL ADVISOR ON NEARLY ALL THINGS.
更多详情，让我们连线白宫北草坪，彭博社的杰夫·梅森正在那里。如果她离开，我们知道谁将接替她吗？有人能吗？杰夫：确实。我们甚至不知道他是否计划找人接替她。他可能会。新闻秘书是历届政府都有的职位。事实上，在这届政府中，特朗普总统在很多方面都是他自己的新闻秘书，就像他在几乎所有事情上都是自己的政治顾问一样。
HE HAS SAID BEFORE THAT THE PERSON WHOSE COUNSEL HE TAKES THE MOST IS HIS OWN. THAT DOES NOT MEAN THIS IS NOT SIGNIFICANT. KAROLINE LEAVITT WAS A TOP ADVISER TO HIM IN ADDITION TO BEING HIS SPOKESWOMAN. I HAVE COVERED A LOT OF ADMINISTRATIONS AND PRESS SECRETARIES, AND THE BEST ONES ARE THE ONES WHO ARE IN THE ROOM AND WHO CAN THEN SAY WHAT IS GOING ON WITH THE PRESIDENT. AND KAROLINE COULD. HER TENURE ALSO INCLUDES PRETTY MAJOR UPHEAVALS FOR THE PRESS CORPS, INCLUDING HAVING PUSHED THE THREE MAJOR WIRE SERVICES, INCLUDING BLOOMBERG, OUT OF OUR PERMANENT SEATS IN THE POOL.
他之前曾说过，他咨询最多的人是他自己。但这并不意味着这不重要。卡罗琳·莱维特除了担任他的发言人外，还是他的高级顾问。我报道过许多届政府和新闻秘书，最好的那些是能进入核心圈子、并能随后说明总统情况的人。卡罗琳能做到。她的任期内还发生了对记者团的重大变动，包括将包括彭博社在内的三家主要通讯社从我们在白宫记者团中的永久席位中挤走。
A CONTROVERSIAL FIGURE FOR SURE, BUT ALSO AN IMPORTANT FIGURE IN TRUMP'S ORBIT. IT IS A BIG SHIFT TO HEAR SHE IS LEAVING. KAILEY: CERTAINLY. WE ARE NOT HEARING THINGS FROM THE WHITE HOUSE PRESS OFFICE, WE ARE FREQUENTLY HEARING THEM DIRECTLY FROM PRESIDENT TRUMP, IN MANY CASES ON TRUE SOCIAL, WHERE HE TOOK TWO TODAY TO SAY THE U.S. IS IN TOTAL CONTROL OF THE STRATA FORM IS. AND YET IS THERE ANY REAL MOVEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE STRAIT OR ANY KIND OF NEGOTIATION WITH IRAN RIGHT NOW?
她无疑是个有争议的人物，但也是特朗普核心圈中的重要人物。听到她离职的消息，这是一个重大转变。凯莉：当然。我们不是从白宫新闻办公室听到消息，而是经常直接从特朗普总统那里听到，很多时候是在他的社交平台“真实社交”上，他今天两次发帖称美国完全控制了霍尔木兹海峡。然而，在霍尔木兹海峡问题上，或者与伊朗的任何谈判，目前是否有任何实质性进展？
JEFF: IT IS NOT ACCURATE TO SAY THAT THE U.S. IS IN CONTROL CONTROL OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BECAUSE IRAN HAS SHOWN IT CAN ATTACK SHIPS THAT ARE GOING THROUGH THE STRAIT AS A WAY OF USING THAT AREA. THERE IS CERTAINLY A DISCONNECT BETWEEN WHAT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS SAYING AND WHAT IRAN IS SAYING. TO YOUR QUESTION ABOUT PROGRESS, IT SEEMS TO BE AT A STANDSTILL. THE PRESIDENT MAKING THAT COMMENT ILLUSTRATES HOW FAR APART THE TWO SIDES ARE.
杰夫：说美国控制了霍尔木兹海峡并不准确，因为伊朗已经表明它可以攻击通过海峡的船只，以此利用该地区。特朗普总统所说的和伊朗所说的之间肯定存在脱节。关于你提到的进展问题，似乎处于停滞状态。总统的这番言论说明双方分歧有多大。
HE'S NOT TALKING AT THE MOMENT ABOUT AN ESCALATION IN MILITARY ATTACKS, BUT IF HE SAYS HE WANTS THE U.S. TO MAINTAIN ITS CONTROL OF THE STRAIT, THAT INDICATES HE PLANS TO LEAVE THE U.S. RESOURCES THAT ARE OUT THERE IN PLACE FOR A WHILE. KAILEY: BLOOMBERG'S JEFF MASON LIVE AT THE WHITE HOUSE. THE ENERGY PRICE SHOCK FROM THE WAR WITH IRAN CONTINUED TO FADE IN JULY ACCORDING TO TODAY'S SUBDUED CPI REPORT, WITH ENERGY AND GASOLINE PRICES FALLING FOR A SECOND MONTH IN THE CORE METRIC RISING 2.5% YEAR ON YEAR, THE SLOWEST PACE SINCE MARCH 2021, TAKING SOME PRESSURE OFF THE FED AHEAD OF ITS SEPTEMBER MEETING.
他目前没有谈论升级军事打击，但如果他说他希望美国保持对海峡的控制，那表明他计划让美国在那里的资源继续部署一段时间。凯莉：彭博社的杰夫·梅森在白宫现场报道。根据今天温和的CPI报告，与伊朗战争带来的能源价格冲击在7月份继续消退，能源和汽油价格连续第二个月下跌，核心指标同比上涨2.5%，为2021年3月以来最慢增速，这减轻了美联储在9月会议前的压力。
JOIN US FOR MORE IS BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCKEE LIVE FROM WORLD HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK. IT TAKES SOME PRESSURE OFF, BUT HOW MUCH WILL IT ALTER PRE-EXISTING THINKING? MICHAEL: IT REALLY WON'T AT ALL AT THIS POINT. OIL PRICES WENT DOWN, SO GASOLINE PRICES WENT DOWN IN THE FIRST PART OF JULY. THEY HAVE GONE BACK UP AGAIN, NOW ABOVE WHERE THEY WERE. THE AUGUST NUMBERS ARE GOING TO BE DECISIVE WHEN WE GET THERE. WE DID SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE NUMBERS OVERALL, ESPECIALLY ON A YEAR-OVER-YEAR BASIS WITH .1% RISE IN THE HEADLINE, .2% RISE IN THE CORE.
加入我们，了解更多。彭博社的迈克尔·麦基从纽约世界总部现场报道。这减轻了一些压力，但它会在多大程度上改变已有的想法？迈克尔：目前真的不会改变。油价下跌，所以汽油价格在7月初下跌。现在又回升了，现在高于之前的水平。8月份的数据将是决定性的。我们确实看到整体数据有所改善，尤其是同比数据，总体上涨0.1%，核心上涨0.2%。
THAT PUTS US AT 3.4% HEADLINE NUMBER FOR THE YEAR AND 2.5% FOR THE CORE. THEY WERE OVER 4% NOT LONG AGO. IN THAT SENSE IT IS PROGRESS. IF YOU LOOK BACK BEFORE THE WAR STARTED ON THE DEBT IS ABOUT WHERE WE WERE. FOR RIGHT NOW THE PEOPLE WHO WERE HAWKISH ON THE FED ARE NOT HAPPY BECAUSE THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY PROGRESS OVER THESE MONTHS. WE'VE ONLY MADE A ROUND-TRIP AND 3.4% WAS NOT GOOD ENOUGH FOR THEM THEN. KAILEY: SO CUE PPI TOMORROW.
这使我们的年度总体数据为3.4%，核心数据为2.5%。不久前它们还在4%以上。从这个意义上说，这是进步。如果你回顾战争开始前的债务，大约是我们所处的位置。目前，对美联储持鹰派态度的人并不满意，因为几个月来没有任何进展。我们只是走了一个来回，3.4%对他们来说还不够好。凯莉：所以明天关注PPI。
SHOULD WE EXPECT IT IS GOING TO BE A SIMILAR STORY? MICHAEL: IT COULD VERY WELL BE BECAUSE OF THE ENERGY COMPONENTS IN PARTICULAR. IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT HAPPENS WITH TARIFFS BECAUSE THEY CAME BACK ON IN SOME AREAS DURING JULY, BUT OVERALL WE MAY SEE EITHER A FLAT OR SMALL RISE IN THE PPI. WHAT ECONOMISTS BE LOOKING FOR ARE THE CATEGORIES THAT FEED INTO THE PCE INFLATION INDEX, BECAUSE THAT IS WHAT THE FED USES. SOME IN THE CPI WENT UP TODAY LIKE AIRFARES.
我们应该预期它会是一个类似的故事吗？迈克尔：很可能会，特别是因为能源成分。关税方面的情况尚不清楚，因为7月份某些领域的关税又回来了，但总体而言，我们可能会看到PPI持平或小幅上升。经济学家关注的是那些计入PCE通胀指数的类别，因为那是美联储使用的。今天CPI中的一些项目上涨了，比如机票。
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHAT IS THE RISE IN THE PORTFOLIO WHICH MEANT CATEGORY? THE MORE TRADING THERE IS, THE MORE WALL STREET MAKES, AND THAT GOES INTO THE PPI AS AN INCREASE. IF THAT GOES UP A LOT, PCE WILL COME DOWN, AND THAT GIVES THE FED THE MORE REASON TO BE PRESSURED FOR A RATE INCREASE. KAILEY: WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE CONCEPT OF BORROWING COSTS GOING HIGHER, I WANT TO ASK ABOUT THE 10 YEAR OPTION, $42 BILLION WORTH OF NOTES, THE HIGHEST YIELD SINCE 2007.
关键问题是投资组合（即所谓的类别）的涨幅是多少？交易越多，华尔街赚得越多，这会作为增长计入PPI。如果该数据大幅上升，PCE将会下降，这将给美联储更多理由面临加息压力。凯莉：当我们考虑借贷成本上升的概念时，我想问一下10年期期权，价值420亿美元的票据，这是自2007年以来的最高收益率。
I WONDER IF WE SHOULD EXPECT THAT MAY CONTINUE WITH THE TRAJECTORY WE ARE CURRENTLY ON. MICHAEL: ASMALL TAIL FROM WHAT WE WERE EXPECTING, BUT IT TELLS YOU THAT THE MARKETS AT THIS POINT WERE THINKING THAT INTEREST RATES ARE PRETTY APPROPRIATELY PRICED, SOME OF THAT BEING INFLATION. SOME OF THAT IS PROBABLY THE BUDGET. WE HAD A REPORT TODAY THAT THE PRESIDENT IS CONSIDERING MORE TAX CUTS TO DRIVE UP THE REPUBLICAN SHARE OF THE VOTE IN NOVEMBER.
我想知道我们是否应该预期这种情况会随着我们目前的轨迹继续下去。迈克尔：与我们预期的略有不同，但这告诉你，目前市场认为利率定价相当合适，其中一部分是通胀。其中一部分可能是预算。我们今天有报道称，总统正在考虑更多减税措施，以提高共和党在11月的选票份额。
THAT WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE DEFICIT AND MAKE WALL STREET MORE NERVOUS. THERE'S A LOT GOING INTO THAT 10 YEAR YIELD. IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE COMING DOWN ANY TIME SOON. KAILEY: BLOOMBERG'S MICHAEL MCKEE, THANKS AS ALWAYS. ECONOMIC CONCERNS ARE AT THE FOREFRONT IN THIS YEAR'S MIDTERMS, WHICH WERE FURTHER SHAPED YESTERDAY WITH PRIMARIES HELD ACROSS SIX STATES, INCLUDING A SPECIAL CONTEST IN SOUTH CAROLINA TO FILL THE SEAT OF LATE, SENATOR LINDSEY GRAHAM IN WHICH HIS SISTER FAILED TO WIN OUTRIGHT.
那只会增加赤字，让华尔街更加紧张。10年期收益率受很多因素影响。看起来短期内不会下降。凯莉：彭博社的迈克尔·麦基，一如既往感谢你。经济担忧是今年中期选举的首要问题，而昨天在六个州举行的初选进一步塑造了这一局面，其中包括南卡罗来纳州的一场特别竞选，以填补已故参议员林赛·格雷厄姆的席位，他的妹妹未能直接获胜。
WHILE IN MINNESOTA'S REPUBLICAN PRIMARY FOR GOVERNOR, THE PRESIDENTS PICK MICHAEL AND DEALT HANDILY LOST TO LISA DEMUTH, SPEAKER OF THE STATEHOUSE. LINDELL IS STILL REFUSING TO CONCEDE THAT RACE. FOR MORE ON THOSE RACES AND THE DIRECTION OF THE GOP HEADING INTO THE MIDTERMS OVERALL, WE ARE JOINED BY THE FORMER GOVERNOR OF MINNESOTA. HERE IN OUR WASHINGTON DC STUDIO TO BOOT. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US ON BLOOMBERG. WHEN WE CONSIDER THE RESULTS FROM YOUR STATE OF MINNESOTA YESTERDAY, MIKE LINDELL ASIDE, THE WIDER LANDSCAPE WOULD POINT TO THOSE THAT SIDE WITH THE PRESIDENT USUALLY COMING OUT VICTORIOUS IN THE PRIMARIES, EVEN IF NOT IN THIS CASE.
而在明尼苏达州共和党州长初选中，总统支持的迈克尔·安德尔轻松输给了州众议院议长丽莎·德穆斯。林德尔仍拒绝承认那场竞选的结果。关于这些竞选以及共和党在中期选举中的整体方向，我们邀请到了明尼苏达州前州长。而且就在我们的华盛顿演播室。感谢您做客彭博社。当我们考虑昨天明尼苏达州的结果时，除了迈克·林德尔之外，更广泛的格局表明，那些与总统站在一边的人通常在初选中获胜，尽管这次并非如此。
GENERAL ELECTION POLITICS ARE VERY DIFFERENT. I WONDER HOW YOU EXPECT GENERAL ELECTION POLITICS WILL FAVOR OR NOT THE REPUBLICAN PARTY.
大选政治非常不同。我想知道您预计大选政治将如何有利于或不有利于共和党。
NATIONALLY THE PRESIDENT HAS A STRONG TRACK RECORD OF PICKING PEOPLE WHO SURVIVE PRIMARIES. NOT IN EVERY CASE. IN TERMS OF THE GENERAL ELECTION DYNAMICS, YOUR REPORTING WAS SPOT ON. WE WILL BE MOVING FROM THAT MACROECONOMIC DISCUSSION TO
在全国范围内，总统在选择能挺过初选的人方面有很强的记录。并非每个案例都是如此。就大选动态而言，您的报道非常准确。我们将从宏观经济讨论转向
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