Clarity Act 未死：参议院定于9月15日投票

Well, the Clarity Act did indeed fail to get over the line before the August recess, but despite what crypto Twitter might tell you, it's not over.

Early on the 8th of August, at the tail end of an overnight voting marathon, Senate Majority Leader John Ton filed a piece of paperwork. While everyone was busy writing obituaries for the Clarity Act, that filing guaranteed the Senate will take a vote on a confirmed time and day. 2:15 p.m. on Tuesday the 15th of September to be precise. Crypto spent 4 years asking Washington for a date, and we finally have it. So today we're breaking down what tune actually did in those early hours, how the Clarity Act is actually looking with respect to votes and a tight calendar, and why the market is likely mispricing all of this.

My name is Guy and this is the Coin Bureau. Now, let's start with the bill itself because some have muddled up what it's strictly about. So, the digital asset market clarity act is now sitting on the Senate calendar as calendar number 423. This is the market structure bill that finally decides which regulator owns what, splitting jurisdiction between the SEC and the CFTC. Every exchange, every token issuer, every DeFi protocol, every custodian, every market maker operating in America is downstream of that decision.

Now, the House already passed its version back on the 17th of July, 2025 by 294 votes to 134 with 78 Democrats crossing over. Then the Senate spent the next year rebuilding it. Senator Cynthia Lumis released the merged text on the 22nd of July this year, a package of roughly 616 pages fusing the banking committee work, the agriculture committee work and her own digital assets framework. Then August arrived, the deadline slipped and everyone declared it dead.

But that was the wrong perspective entirely. And here's why. Starting with what Ton actually filed, it's called Cloer on the motion to proceed. And I'll get a little into the weeds of it here for a second. Now, closure is not passage. Under Senate rule 22, it's a three-fifths threshold, 60 votes, that caps debate and forces the chamber to formally take the bill up. Passage would need a second cloer vote plus a debate and amendment process on top.

But the filing is the part that's important here. A bill that runs out of calendar for the most part just disappears. A bill with a filed closure motion has to be answered in the open with every single senator's name attached to a recorded position. Now, Ton was vocal in his criticism of Democrats who declined to grant unanimous consent for a vote before the break. So, leadership queued it up as the first order of business on the return.

Senator Bernie Moreno said on the 8th of August that the 11 months of negotiations between Senate Republicans and Democrats have quote officially ended and every senator will now have the opportunity to cast their vote. So then if we are destined for a vote, what do the numbers look like right now? Well, Republicans hold 53 seats and Cloer needs 60. So that's seven Democrat crossovers minimum, assuming perfect Republican attendance.

That assumption though is doing some work, mind you. Galaxy Researchers analysis puts the dependably yes Republican count closer to 50, flagging Josh Holist grounds, Rand Paul on libertarian ones, and Jerry Moran over community bank and farm credit concerns. So realistically, call it 7 to9 Democrats. So, do those votes exist? Well, if you take a slightly optimistic view, yes. The Senate Banking Committee marked the bill up 15 to9 on the 14th of May with Ruben Galgo and Angela also Brooks both crossing the aisle.

There's a block of seven cryptocurious Democrats. Also, Booker, Cortez, Masto, Galgo, Hickin Looper, Warner, and Waro, which is conveniently exactly the number required. and 78 House Democrats have already voted for a version of this thing. So, the votes are in the building. The challenge is getting them in time. Roughly 14 session days exist between the Senate's return on the 14th of September and the point where legislative business effectively shuts down for the midterms.

Within that 14-day period, there's a government funding cliff on the 30th of September, a Russia sanctions package, and a nominations backlog, including the argument around Todd Blanch for attorney general. Clarity is not must pass legislation, and multiple reports suggest leadership will push it straight off the calendar if the funding debate eats up floor time. The vote also lands roughly 50 days before the midterms, which is when vulnerable incumbents stop taking optional risks.

Senator Tom Tillis warned the odds drop significantly as that window closes. So, in all likelihood, September isn't just the next opportunity here. It might be the only opportunity left. Now, keeping up with procedural filings and 616page committee texts is hard enough for one person, and that's before you've even gauged what it's all going to do to your portfolio. And that's why we've decided to make it easy for you.

Because right here on YouTube, you can join the Coin Bureau Club Light Plan. You'll get daily updates across both crypto and tradi, our teams read on what's actually moving in the markets, and none of the nonsense. We've made the light plan affordable, so it's accessible to all. And if you sign up now, your first month is absolutely free. So just tap the join button below this video to get started. Righty back to the Senate.

And it's time to talk about the blocker here. Surprisingly, the thing standing in the way is not any kind of SEC versus CFTC turf war. That fight, the one the industry has been bracing for since 2021, is basically settled in the merge text. No, the blocker is ethics. Disclosure showed President Trump earned more than $1.4 billion from crypto ventures in 2025, and that number changed the temperature in the room when it came to Clarity Act negotiations.

The Republican offer in the 22nd of July text bars the president, vice president, and their spouses from directly issuing digital assets while in office. Now, that might sound quite comprehensive, except it sunsets on the 20th of January, 2029. Enforcement sits exclusively with the Department of Justice with no state attorney general backs stop. Existing holdings are grandfathered and adult children aren't covered. Elizabeth Warren's response, and she is the ranking member on the banking committee, was that the bill does nothing to prevent Trump quote vacuuming up his next $1.4 billion in crypto profits.

Lumis argues no president in American history has voluntarily accepted self-imposed ethics limits like this and that state AG enforcement was a bright red line for a lot of senators who didn't fancy being sued by whichever attorney general woke up angry that morning. White House digital assets adviser Patrick Wit said you don't get to hit two home runs with one swing of the bat. But then there's Galgo who is one of the seven votes this bill needs.

He and Tillis sent a bipartisan compromise to the White House on the 30th of July, requiring divestment and allowing state AGs to sue if the DOJ won't. And on the 7th of August, Galgo said the ethics language he's been working on heavily has produced nothing back from the White House. So the bill that decides whether American DeFi is legal is currently pinned down by an argument over the Trump family's business interests.

Now, for all of the arguing back and forth, there is a simpler way to cut through the noise on where Clarity stands. Market prices. So, let's take a look at how the market has priced all this. Poly Market's contract on clarity being signed into law in 2026 peaked at 82% back in February. By late June, it was a coin flip. By late July, it was in the mid30s. And as I record this, it's somewhere in the mid to high teens with different markets showing anywhere from 13% to 21%.

But bear in mind what most of these market odds are actually pricing. It's enactment. That is signed, sealed, and delivered into law.