霍尔木兹海峡协议存疑，油价连续第六日上涨

ABEER: GOOD MORNING, THIS IS "HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA." OUR TOP STORIES, HORMUZ SKEPTICISM, OIL ADVANCES FOR A SIXTH STRAIGHT SESSION. MARKETS REMAIN DOUBTFUL THAT AN AGREEMENT WILL RESTORE THROWS QUICKLY. AI RALLY ROLLS ON. TECH STOCKS LEADING IN ASIA AFTER STRONG AI SALES OUTLOOKS FROM COREWEAVE AND SUPERMICROAND UAE’S PRESIGHT HAS STRONG PERFORMANCE. WE’LL SPEAK WITH THE C.E.O. I’M ABEER ABU OMAR IN DUBAI. A QUICK LOOK AT EQUITY BENCHMARKS AND OTHER RISK ASSETS THIS MORNING.

S&P FUTURES, .1 HIGHER. NOT DOING A LOT. YESTERDAY WE SAW THE S&P 500 AND NASDAQ DROP .3%. COREWEAVE 16% HIGHER IN POST-HOUR TRADING AND ALSO WE’RE SEEING SUPERMICRODOING QUITE WELL ON THOSE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED SALES GROWTH FORECASTS. THOSE ARE NUMBERS WE SAW IN U.S. TRADING HOURS BUT THEN ASIAN EQUITIES ARE TAKING THEIR CHI FROM THAT STRONG TECH SENTIMENT. .7 HIGHER. THE KOSPI DOING ITS THING. AND WE’RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THE YEN, EDGING VERY CLOSE ABOUT 1.60 LEVEL AGAINST THE U.S.

DOLLAR. AND CRUDE PRICES HIGHER, $90 PER BARREL. THAT JUST HAPPENED MOMENTS AGO. OF COURSE WE’LL KEEP AN EYE OUT ON THE DEAL OR LACK THEREOF AND WHAT THAT EXACTLY MEANS FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NOSE ENERGY FLOWS AND THE YIELD ON THE 10-YEAR NOTES IN THE UNITED STATES. 4.69%. NOT DOING VERY MUCH THIS MORNING BUT WE AWAIT THAT CRUCIAL C.P.I. PRINT COMING OUT IN U.S. HOURS LATER TODAY AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR YIELDS AND FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVE TRAJECTORY.

WE HAVE WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG ON ASIAN STOCKS. WHAT DO YOU HAVE? WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. A PRETTY POSITIVE SESSION IN ASIA TODAY ESPECIALLY AFTER SOLID EARNINGS FROM THE LIKES OF COREWEAVE. THE STANDOUT TODAY IS IN THE KOSPI INDEX, UP MORE THAN 4%, LED BY GAMES IN SAMSUNG AND SK HYNIX. INVESTORS ARE BETTING THAT THESE TWO COMPANIES WILL ANNOUNCE MASSIVE SHAREHOLDER RETURN PLANS AS EARLY AS LATER THIS MONTH AND WITH THAT ALSO SOME POSITIVE SENTIMENT AFTER A LOCAL REPORT SAID THAT SINGAPORE’S STATE -- IS CONSIDERLING INVESTING IN THESE TWO STOCKS.

JAPAN RETURNING AFTER HOLIDAY YESTERDAY. BANK STOCKS CONTINUE TO OUTPERFORM ON BETS THAT BANK OF JAPAN WILL HAVE TO MOVE EARLIER THAN LATER. WORTH POINTING OUT THAT JAPANESE -- HAVE SHOWN GAINS, SO THAT BET ON THE BANK OF JAPAN TO MOVE EARLIER IS REALLY SHOWING UP ALSO IN THE BOND SPACE AS WE CAN SEE THE 10-YEAR YIELD UP ABOUT THREE BASIS POINTS. ALSO COMING AS HIGHER OIL LEADING TO INFLATIONARY CONCERNS AS WE AWAIT THE C.P.I.

NUMBERS LATER TODAY. BACK TO YOU, ABEER. ABEER: NOW BACK TO THE GEOPOLITICAL STORY. OIL IS HOLDING ON TO GAINS ON SKEPTICISM ABOUT THE PROSPECTS FOR A DEAL THAT WOULD RESTORE ENERGY FLOWS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. EARLIER PAKISTAN’S DEFENSE MINISTER SAID THE U.S. AND IRAN ARE CLOSE TO REACHING A DEAL REGARDING THE CRITICAL WATERWAY WHILE PUBLICLY BOTH SIDES SEEM TO BE TOUGHENING THEIR STANCES.

I’M THE LAST PERSON TO TRUST IRAN. THEY’VE LIED TO ME CONSTANTLY. WE HAVE TOTAL CONTROL OVER THE HORMUZ STRAIT RIGHT NOW. WE OWN IT AND AT SOME POINT MAYBE THEY’LL DO SOMETHING AND THEN THEY’LL GET BLOWN AWAY. ABEER: WE’RE JOINED BY BLOOMBERG’S MANAGING EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA, ONUR ANT. WHO SHOULD WE BELIEVE IN ALL OF THIS? ONUR: VERY GOOD QUESTION AS THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY VOLATILE. THE U.S.

IS STILL TRYING TO HELP FINALIZE A DEAL BETWEEN IRAN AND OMAN FOR THE OPENING OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BUT U.S. OFFICIALS, LED BY PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP HAVE CLAIMED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS THAT THE STRAIT IS, IN FACT, ALREADY UNDER TOTAL AMERICAN CONTROL. IN FACT, SOME OF THE OTHER AMERICAN OFFICIALS HAVE DOUBLED DOWN ON THE ARGUMENTS THAT THE FLOWS OF OIL AND OTHER ENERGY MATERIALS THROUGH THE STRAIT IS INCREASING DAY BY DAY.

THAT SOMEHOW CONTRASTS WITH WHAT WE’VE BEEN SEEING IN THE STRAIT, ON THE FIELD, ON THE GROUND. THERE WERE ATTACKS IN AND AROUND THE REGION ON SHIPPING YESTERDAY, ON TUESDAY. WE’VE SEEN MULTIPLE DEATHS ON AN ATTACK ON A SHIP AT THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE RED SEA. AN ATTACK NOT CLAIMED BY ANYONE, ANY GROUP OPERATING IN THE REGION. ANOTHER ASSASSINS WHERE U.S. OFFICIALS FORCED A VESSEL TO A STOP AFTER IT TRIED TO BREACH AN AMERICAN BLOCKADE.

YES, BOTH SIDES ARE HARDENING THEIR SENTENCE AND ON THE OTHER HAND THEY SEEM TO BE MAKING INCREMENTAL PROGRESS IN EFFORTS TO SECURE A DEAL. THERE HAS BEEN AN ANNOUNCEMENT THAT THE PAKISTAN INTERIOR MINISTER IS GOING TO TEHRAN CLEARLY TO HELP PROGRESS TALKS BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN FOR A DEAL. ABEER: BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS PUT OUT AN INTERESTING REPORT, MIMICKING SOME WE’VE SEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS ABOUT THE U.S.

RUNNING DANGEROUSLY LOW ON MUNITIONS. WHAT CAN YOU TELL US ABOUT THAT AND THE REAL KIND OF DANGER BEHIND SUCH A CLAIM? ONUR: ASICS, THE BLOOMBERG ECONOMY INVESTIGATION WAS SOMETHING THAT WAS DOMINATING THE DISCUSSION AROUND IRAN AT LEAST FOR THE LAST TWO WEEKS, PROBABLY FUELED BY THE FACT THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS CLEARLY HESITANT TO RESUME ALL-OUT WAR AGAINST IRAN. OTHERS HAVE REPORTED THAT THE U.S. MAY BE RUNNING OUT OF MUNITIONS.

WHILE THE U.S. DOES POSSESS A GOOD DEPTH OF MISSILES, THERE WERE SOME MISSILES SUCH AS PATRIOTS USED HEAVILY ON ATTACKS IN THE PERSIAN GULF AS WELL AS IRAN IN THE OPENING WEEKS OF THE WAR. WHAT THIS MEANS THAT SHOULD THERE BEEN ANOTHER ALL-OUT WAR OR ESCALATION, THE U.S. FORCES WOULD HAVE TO FLY VERY CLOSE TO OR EVEN OVER IRAN MUCH MORE FREQUENTLY, WHICH COULD POSSIBLY END IN A HIGHER AMOUNT OF FATAFATALITIES AND HIGHER EQUIPMENT LOSS.

ABEER: THANK YOU, AS ALWAYS, FOR YOUR TI TIME. AS OIL PRICES CLIMB, MARKETS REAL WEARY ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF A U.S.-IRAN DEAL. CRUCIAL INFLATION DATA IS COMING OUT LATER TODAY. JOINING US IS HEAD OF MARKETS, CHANDRA ARE. ALL EYES TURNING TOWARD THAT KEY REPORT, C.P.I. BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS EXPECTS IS TO IT BE SOFT. WHAT ARE YOUR EXPECTATIONS AND IF IT IS SOFTER THAN EXPECTED, WHAT PART OF THE MARKETS WOULD YOU WANT TO OWN RIGHT NOW?

THE FOCUS IS IN THE CORE IS NOT IN THE HEADLINE AND IF THE CORE IS GOING TO BE AROUND .2, THAT’S A VERY BENIGN NUMBER. .3 IS KIND OF AN INTERESTING LINE. YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE A VERY STRONG REACTION ANYTHING OVER .3 ON THE BOND MARKET. ESPECIALLY ON THE DOLLAR. ABEER: WHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY TO HAVE U.S. DOLLAR BEFORE WE GET INTO THE FUN STUFF ABOUT AI.

I THINK IT’S GOING TO BE DIRECTIONLESS AND VOLATILE FOR NOW. YOU DON’T HAVE A FED MEETING FOR THE AUGUST SO EVERY SINGLE LITTLE PRINT OUT OF THE U.S. BE IT C.P.I. C.P.E., EVEN JOBLESS CLAIMS CAN MOVE THE DOLLAR BECAUSE EVERYTHING BECOMES A MINI FED MEETING. ABEER: SPEAKING ABOUT AI AND WHAT’S BEEN HAPPENING, YOU HEARD PROBABLY WHAT WE WERE SAYING ABOUT COREWEAVE SO SUPERMICRO. AND THE QUESTION IS WHEN DOES THIS AI BOOM AND ALL THE MONEY SPENT THERE BECOME INTO INFLATIONARY FOR THE FED TO START REVERSING COURSE OR CHANGE THE WAY IT IS LOOKING AT INTEREST RATES.

THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS HAS BEEN THE SAME STORY. ALREADY HIGH AMOUNT OF AI CAPEX SPENDING BUT IT’S NOT BEEN THAT INFLATIONARY. THE FACT THAT THEY’RE UNABLE TO GET ENNATION BACK TO 2% IS PROBABLY ONE OF THE REASONS WHY. BUT WHICH ARE WILL THE FED CHANGE IT GOES? WE DO EXPECT THE FED COULD BE ON A HOLD AS FAR AS A SEPTEMBER MEETING IS CONCERNED BUT FOR ME WHAT MATTERS IS HOW THE MARKET PERCEIVES WHAT THE FED SAYS AND DOES IN SEPTEMBER.

WHAT HAPPENS TO THE 10-YEARS AFTER THE MEETINGS. THAT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR THE MARKET. APPEAR: YOU TELL ME, WHAT DO YOU THINK WILL HAPPEN?

I THINK THERE ARE TWO SCENARIOS. THE FIRST ONE IS THE FED DOES NOTHING. THAT IS GOING TO BE A BAD IMPACT BECAUSE THE INVESTORS WILL START REACTING FOR COMPENSATION. BUT SUPPOSE THE FED ACTS ON IT AND INCREASES RATES AND IT WILL GET TO A FLATTENING OF THE YIELD CUB WAS THE CURVE WILL NOT END OF MOVE, ESPECIALLY THE LONG ENDS AND THEN YOU GET A FLATTENING CURVE AND THAT MIGHT BE BENEFICIAL BECAUSE MOST LIKELY THE RISK IS FACTORED IN.

THE SECOND ONE IN MY VIEW, WHAT MATTERS IS HOW THE MARKET PERCEIVES IT. ABEER: OIL IS REACTING. GOLD HAS BEEN REACTING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS BUT MARKETS ARE CONTINU

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