特朗普言论致霍尔木兹海峡协议悬而未决

So we risk it in the sense that it's going to keep going. Up until the point we admit that we lost. This was a dumb war to get into. We were going to lose. It was obvious we were going to lose the moment we launched into it, and nothing has changed since then. Um, I teach at the school management now, but I used to teach international relations, and I was thinking if I was going to do a course on international relations now, my final exam would be list every blindingly obvious strategic mistake that the United States has made in the war with Iran.

And I would just flunk anyone who handed in anything less than 20 pages. So, professor, I mean, President Trump, there are domestic political ramifications, presumably from this war in Iran. His poll numbers are low. Um, the war in Iran does not pull. Well, um, and I'm sure the Republicans are saying, Mr. President, you got to give us something here. These are some really big headwinds going into midterms. How do you think the president reacts to that?

So I think, Paul, that you have put your finger on the question that I think should really worry all of us, because the way to get out of this war for him is essentially to admit defeat, right? As to it and the terms that people are talking about, that you're hearing about essentially would end up with Iran getting roughly $100 billion a year in fees for things go to transiting the Strait of Hormuz. So, you know, or profits on the order of Apple that we're just get or a third of Iranian GDP, that we just get handed into the hands of the Iranian government for them to spend however they want.

That is a catastrophic defeat of a scale that we can't, you know, it's almost impossible to process. And so what Trump has to do to end the war is accept that, which would be devastating for him. I mean, humiliating sort of on the global stage. And I imagine personally. But if he doesn't accept that, then he's just going to keep the war going. The numbers will continue to erode eventually. The buffers that have somewhat protected the global economy from this, from sort of the oil market disruptions, was well thought will fall apart, and that will also be bad for him.

So it really is a sort of a whether he wants to take the pain now or later is the choice, but the pains common. So I guess the question is, I guess, again, trying to stay with the midterms and the domestic political situation. This could be a very difficult midterm elections for the Republican Party. The question is, I guess. How difficult? Yeah, they were protected by this sort of incredibly hard core base of people who were just very, very loyal to Donald Trump.

And the sort of this is the issue that seems to be cracking that a little bit. Plus all of it, the knock on effects, the rising, the cost of living. You know, we can just go through what you feel like when you just go through them. Those are things that people feel on a day to day basis and are visceral. They're not going to flip them to Democrats, but they might make them stay home and vote. And I'm Paul, I'm going to add to a few other points of that.

One is, Donald Trump has shifted the Republican Party's base from high propensity voter vote voters to low propensity to vote people. Those people might show up with Donald Trump on the ballot. But we have run with this with multiple examples. Now, we had the Trump midterms in 20, right? We have the Trump midterms 2018 with a Biden midterm in 2022 when Democrats consistently outperform because Trump voters just don't show up in the midterms.

Okay, but cut to the chase here outside of Pittsburgh, the 17th and 18th Congressional District. Conor Lamb was a Democrat of another cut in cloth. Are those Democrats out there to win in those districts? So it depends on the district, right? Um, and so we're seeing some Democrats doing very well. And, you know, so we, we sort of the, the moderate Democrats don't get attention. So at this point, Cooper is just sailing to victory in North Carolina.

And, you know, you could not get a tweet out about him with with with for love or money. Um, meanwhile Abdul Siad is winning in Michigan and, you know, deserves a lot of attention for that. But you might see some disproportion there for people like Siad, uh, like, uh, I'm like, I'll say, Ed, I think the issue there for him is, is look, he if he runs three points behind, uh, but behind Slotkin, what Slotkin did in 2024, he might still win the election.

In fact, I'd say he could probably be favored in that scenario. So, I mean, three points is a lot to give up, right? But there are also lots of cases where that's not happening. And the one I'm just going to keep focusing on is hang in Wisconsin, where we're going to get that decided right now if she's the nominee. So this is just about the worst major party nominee we've seen in 20 years. And her odds of victory, even though her opponent is extremely conservative and worryingly, seems to be very unlikely to certify, uh, Democratic win if the Democrats win in 2028.

She's still probably not going to win because she's just an awful candidate.