油价上涨推升通胀担忧，美债收益率逼近高点
Bonds Slide Amid Inflation Concerns as Oil Rises on Hormuz Deal Outlook | Bloomberg Brief 08/11/2026
VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 IN LONDON. I AM VONNIE QUINN WITH YOUR BLOOMBERG BRIEF. PRESIDENT TRUMP ADDS NEW DEMANDS ON A RAND, DIMMING PROSPECTS FOR AN IMMEDIATE DEAL ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. CRUDE RISING FOR A FIFTH DAY PUTTING INFLATION BACK IN FOCUS. THE AI BOOM PULLING IN MORE MONEY. NVIDIA TAPS WALL STREET FOR $500 BILLION AS INTEL BRINGS IN $20 BILLION. A MIXED SESSION IN ASIA. LET'S GET TO SINGAPORE FOR THE LATEST.
冯妮：现在是纽约时间5点，伦敦时间10点。我是冯妮·奎因，为您带来彭博简报。特朗普总统对伊朗提出新要求，使得霍尔木兹海峡立即达成协议的前景黯淡。原油连续第五天上涨，通胀重新成为焦点。AI热潮吸引更多资金流入。英伟达向华尔街融资5000亿美元，英特尔则筹集200亿美元。亚洲市场涨跌互现。让我们连线新加坡获取最新消息。
GOOD, VONNIE. RISING OIL PRICES IS THE SALIENT NARRATIVE FOR AGES MARKET TODAY. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR A LOT OF ASIA'S MARKET. RISING OIL PRICES ARE INFLATIONARY. NOT GOOD NEWS FOR AGES CURRENCY MARKETS BECAUSE IT PUSH -- FOR ASIA'S CURRENCY MARKET BECAUSE IT PUSHES UP THE U.S. DOLLAR. IT IS AN EXTRA NEGATIVE BECAUSE IT WILL DRIVE UP THE COST. YESTERDAY THE JAPANESE YEN CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AGAINST THE DOLLAR AND GAVE UP ALL OF THE DANES AT SAW FROM THAT INTERVENTION IN THE CURRENCY MARKET THE RATE TODAY A LITTLE BIT FROZEN IN THE HEADLIGHTS.
好的，冯妮。油价上涨是今天亚洲市场的主要话题。对亚洲许多市场来说不是好消息。油价上涨会引发通胀。对亚洲货币市场也不是好消息，因为它推高了美元。这又是一个负面因素，因为会推高成本。昨天日元兑美元继续走弱，回吐了此前干预汇市带来的所有涨幅，今天汇率在聚光灯下略显冻结。
PEOPLE WORRIED ABOUT THE U.S. DATA TOMORROW. IT IS A HOLIDAY IN JAPAN SO LIQUIDITY IS RELATIVELY THIN. EQUITIES MARKET I WANTED TO POINT OUT THAT IS QUITE INTERESTING IN TODAY'S SESSION WAS THE CONTINUING GAINS OF SINGAPORE'S STI. AN UNLOVED INDEX BUT THE PERFORMANCE YEAR TO DATE IS AHEAD OF THE PROMISE -- AHEAD OF THE BROADER MSCI ASIA INDEX. TWO THINGS IN ITS FAVOR. WHAT IS GDP DATA WHICH NOT ONLY HAD A BEAT BUT WAS REVISED HIGHER FOR THE YEAR.
人们担心明天的美国数据。日本今天放假，所以流动性相对较薄。股市方面，我想指出今天盘中相当有趣的一点是新加坡STI指数的持续上涨。这是一个不受青睐的指数，但年初至今的表现领先于更广泛的MSCI亚洲指数。它有两个有利因素。一是GDP数据不仅超出预期，而且全年数据被上修。
WE HAVE BANK EARNINGS GIVING IT AN EXTRA IMPETUS. VONNIE: I LOVE THAT THE YEN MAY BE YELPING BUT NOT BARKING YET. LET'S GET TO LONDON WITH A LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN SESSION WITH JUSTINA LEE. JUSTINA: TODAY IS A REMINDER EUROPEAN ASSETS REMAIN VERY SENSITIVE TO MOVES AND OIL SO THE STOCKS GROUP 600 IS DOWN A LITTLE BIT, DRAGGED BY THE TREASURER AND LEISURE NAMES. WHEN OIL PRICES RISE BONDS USUALLY FOLLOW. WE HAVE SEEN A LOT MORE SENSITIVITY IN U.K.
银行财报又提供了额外动力。冯妮：我喜欢日元可能在小叫但还没叫出声。让我们连线伦敦，看看欧洲时段的行情，有请贾斯汀娜·李。贾斯汀娜：今天提醒我们，欧洲资产对油价波动仍然非常敏感，所以斯托克600指数小幅下跌，受旅游和休闲类股拖累。当油价上涨时，债券通常会跟随。我们看到英国市场的敏感性更高。
BONDS LATELY. TODAY THE 10 YEAR YIELD IN THE U.K. IS UP FIVE BASIS POINTS WHEN THE GERMAN YIELD IS ONLY UP TWO. ON TO BETTER NEWS. IF WE FLIP THE BOARD THIS IS THE SPREAD BETWEEN THE U.S. AND THE GERMAN 30 BOND YIELD. THIS IS LONG END OF THE YIELD CURVE SO IT REFLECTS A LOT OF INFLATIONARY OUTLOOK AND FISCAL RISKS AND YOU CAN SEE THE SPREAD HAS BEEN WIDENING AND THAT REFLECTS A LOT OF CONCERNS OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S COMMITMENT TO CONTAINING INFLATION WHEREAS MAYBE INVESTORS DO NOT HAVE SIMILAR QUESTIONS IN EUROPE.
最近债券市场。今天英国10年期收益率上升5个基点，而德国收益率只上升2个基点。接下来是好消息。如果我们翻转看板，这是美国和德国30年期债券收益率之间的利差。这是收益率曲线的长端，所以反映了很多通胀预期和财政风险，你可以看到利差一直在扩大，这反映了对美联储遏制通胀承诺的许多担忧，而投资者可能对欧洲没有类似疑问。
AT THE SAME TIME WE ARE SEEING THE EURO AT A TWO MONTH HIGH AND THAT REFLECTS MORE OPTIMISM AROUND EUROPE LATELY. VONNIE: THAT IS JUSTINA LEE IN LONDON. OIL IS ONE OF THE DOMINANT THEMES IN THE UNITED STATES. EQUITY INDEX FUTURES HOLDING UP A LITTLE BETTER THAN BOND YIELDS. WE DEFINITELY ARE SEEING BRENT CLOSE TO $90 A BARREL. THE SPR AT A 40 YEAR LOW IS MORE URGENT THIS TIME AROUND. WE ARE SEEING OIL PRICES RISE. WTI IS CLOSE TO $80 A BARREL.
与此同时，我们看到欧元触及两个月高位，这反映出近期对欧洲的乐观情绪有所增强。VONNIE：这是贾斯蒂娜·李在伦敦的报道。石油是美国的主导主题之一。股指期货的表现略好于债券收益率。我们确实看到布伦特原油接近每桶90美元。战略石油储备处于40年低点，这次更为紧迫。我们看到油价上涨。WTI接近每桶80美元。
WE ARE WAVERING. WE HAVE LOWER ON S&P FUTURES AND RUSSELL 2000 FUTURES. VERY FRACTIONALLY. YESTERDAY WE DID END LOWER ON THE S&P 500. THE SOX DOWN 3% AT THE CLOSE. WE WILL SEE WHAT THE SESSION BRINGS TODAY AFTER MORE ANNOUNCEMENTS OF THIS FINANCING FROM AI COMPANIES. LET'S SWITCH TO THE YIELDS BOARD BECAUSE THAT IS WHERE THE FOCUS WILL BE AS OIL PRICES RISE. 10 YEAR YIELD CLOSE TO 4.73 AND WE ARE WITHIN A HALF A BASIS POINT OF THE JULY HIGH ON THE 30 YEAR YIELD.
我们正在摇摆不定。标普期货和罗素2000期货走低，幅度非常小。昨天标普500指数收低。费城半导体指数收盘下跌3%。在AI公司宣布更多融资之后，我们将看看今天的交易情况。让我们转向收益率板块，因为随着油价上涨，那里将成为焦点。10年期收益率接近4.73，30年期收益率距离7月高点仅差半个基点。
THE TWO YEAR YIELD UP SEVERAL BASIS POINTS AND ANOTHER BASIS POINT HIGHER THIS MORNING AT 4.2555. VOLUME FOR EQUITIES AT A TWO WEEK LOW AT THE MOMENT. LET'S GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL MARKET MOVERS. WE GO BACK TO LONDON AND CHLOE MELEY. CHLOE: GOOD MORNING. INTEL HAS RAISED $20 BILLION IN AN UPSIDE SHARE SALE AND THAT SHOWED THE DEMAND FOR AI RELATED STOCKS. WE ARE SHOWING WEAKNESS THIS MORNING FOR INTEL, DOWN 1% IN PREMARKET TRADING.
两年期收益率上升了几个基点，今早又上升了一个基点，报4.2555。目前股票成交量处于两周低点。让我们看看一些个股动态。我们回到伦敦，连线克洛伊·梅利。克洛伊：早上好。英特尔通过增发股票筹集了200亿美元，这显示了对AI相关股票的需求。今早英特尔表现疲软，盘前交易下跌1%。
MOVING ON TO RIOT PLATFORMS WHICH IS A BITCOIN MINING COMPANY THAT HAS STARTED SELLING AI DATA CENTER CAPACITY IS UP STRONGLY THIS MORNING ON A REPORT THEY STRUCK A $9 BILLION DEAL WITH ANTHROPIC WHICH IS BEEN TRYING TO BOOST THAT COMPUTING CAPACITY SO WE ARE UP ALMOST 19% THIS MORNING. FINALLY A FINAL TECH STOCK, WE HAVE FERMI WHICH SIGNED A LEASE FOR A MASSIVE PROJECT IN WEST TEXAS WHICH IS CURRENTLY UNDER DEVELOPMENT.
接下来是Riot Platforms，一家比特币挖矿公司，已开始出售AI数据中心容量，今早股价大涨，因为有报道称他们与Anthropic达成了90亿美元的交易，后者一直在努力提升计算能力，所以今早我们上涨了近19%。最后一只科技股是Fermi，该公司签署了一份租约，用于西德克萨斯的一个大型项目，该项目目前正在开发中。
THAT IS BIG RELIEF FOR THE COMPANY AFTER RECENT TROUBLE AND WE ARE UP ABOUT 19% IN PREMARKET TRADING. VONNIE: MASSIVE GAINS AND LOSSES THERE. CHLOE MELEY WILL BE BACK LATER IN THE HOUR. ALSO COMING UP WE WILL DISCUSS MORE ON THE INFLATION WAS FACING THE FED AND HOW THIS BOND MARKET IS COPING WITH LAURA COOPER OF NUVEEN. OIL EXTENDING ITS RALLY AS PRESIDENT TRUMP MAKES SWEEPING NEW DEMANDS ON IRAN. WASHINGTON SEEKING COMPENSATION FOR DAMAGE AND DEATHS ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.
这对公司来说是一个巨大的解脱，在最近的麻烦之后，盘前交易上涨约19%。VONNIE：那里有巨大的涨跌。克洛伊·梅利稍后将再次连线。接下来我们还将与Nuveen的劳拉·库珀讨论美联储面临的通胀问题以及债券市场如何应对。随着特朗普总统对伊朗提出全面新要求，油价延续涨势。华盛顿要求赔偿中东各地的损失和死亡。
THIS COMING IN RESPONSE TO TEHRAN'S REQUEST FOR REPARATIONS IN THE WAR. MORE DEMANDS FROM THE U.S. IN RESPONSE TO DEMANDS FROM IRAN. IRAN ALREADY WAS NOT AT THE TABLE SO HOW DOES THIS CHANGE THINGS?
这是对德黑兰在战争中提出赔偿要求的回应。美国对伊朗的要求做出了更多回应。伊朗本来就没有参与谈判，那么这如何改变局势呢？
GOOD MORNING. PRESIDENT TRUMP SEEMS TO BE MATCHING WHAT IRAN HAD ASKED FOR. OVER THE WEEKEND WE REPORTED THAT SOME HARDLINERS THAT WERE RESHUFFLED IN THE IRANIAN GOVERNMENT HAD STARTED MAKING DEMANDS FOR THE END OF THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST, NAMELY THE END OF THE U.S. NAVAL BLOCKADE, THE PERMANENT END TO THE WAR IN THE REGION, UNBLOCKING THOSE FROZEN ASSETS, LIFTING THOSE OIL SECTIONS AMONG MANY OTHER DEMANDS. THAT IS NOT THE LINE WE HAD REPORTED OUT OF IRAN.
早上好。特朗普总统似乎正在匹配伊朗所提出的要求。上周末我们报道称，伊朗政府中一些被改组的强硬派已经开始提出结束中东战争的要求，即结束美国海军封锁、永久结束该地区的战争、解冻那些被冻结的资产、解除石油制裁等多项要求。这不是我们之前从伊朗报道的路线。
IN RETURN, PRESIDENT TRUMP HIS LATEST REMARKS SAYING HE WILL LIKEWISE BE DEMANDING COMPENSATION FROM IRAN FOR ALL OF THE PEOPLE THEY HAVE KILLED AND GRAVELY WOUNDED WITH THEIR ROADSIDE BOMBS. HE ALSO HAD ACCUSED IRAN OF THE DAMAGES AND THE TRAGEDIES IN COUNTRIES NEARBY IN THE REGION INCLUDING LEBANON AND SYRIA AND GAZA. HE DID NOT GIVE CLARIFICATION ON WHAT THAT MEANS BUT HE DID SAY THAT COMPENSATION WILL BE PART OF ALL FUTURE NEGOTIATIONS TAKING PLACE IN IRAN OR WITH IRAN.
作为回报，特朗普总统最新言论表示，他将同样要求伊朗对他们用路边炸弹杀害和重伤的所有人进行赔偿。他还指责伊朗对该地区邻近国家（包括黎巴嫩、叙利亚和加沙）的破坏和悲剧负有责任。他没有澄清这意味着什么，但他表示，赔偿将成为未来在伊朗或与伊朗进行的所有谈判的一部分。
MEANWHILE WE HAVE REPORTED THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WASHINGTON DOES NOT SEEM TO BE INVOLVED IN THOSE WIDER NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TAKING PLACE WITH OH MAN -- WITH OMAN ABOUT THE NEGOTIATION TO OPEN UP THE WATERWAY. WE DO NOT HAVE THAT FORMALIZED DOCUMENT THAT WILL BE PROVIDED SOON, WE UNDERSTAND IT IS IN THE FINAL STAGES, FOR US TO FIGURE OUT HOW IRAN AND OMAN WILL BE ABLE TO REOPEN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ FOR A TEMPORARY BASIS AND HAVE THE TRICKLE OF MOVEMENT THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, THE CRUCIAL WATERWAY.
与此同时，我们报道称，目前华盛顿似乎没有参与那些关于霍尔木兹海峡的更广泛谈判，这些谈判正在与阿曼进行，关于开放水道的谈判。我们还没有那份正式文件，但很快就会提供，我们了解到它正处于最后阶段，以便我们弄清楚伊朗和阿曼将如何能够暂时重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，并让船只通过这条关键水道进行少量流动。
THAT LACK OF CLARITY IS DRIVING UP OIL PRICES, BOTH NY CRUDE AND BRENT. EDGING VERY CLOSE TO $90 ON THE BARREL YET AGAIN. VONNIE: HARD TO KNOW WHAT THE HOLDUP IS. THANK YOU SO MUCH. TREASURIES UNDER PRESSURE AS THAT RISE IN OIL PRICES REVIVES INFLATION CONCERNS AHEAD OF WEDNESDAY'S CPI REPORT. WE ARE VERY CLOSE TO OUR RECENT HIGHS. 5.28 PRACTICALLY ON THE 30 YEAR AND UP TO 5.70 TWO ON THE 10 YEAR -- UP TO 4.72 ON THE 10 YEAR.
这种缺乏明确性的情况正在推高油价，无论是纽约原油还是布伦特原油。再次逼近每桶90美元。冯妮：很难知道阻碍是什么。非常感谢。国债面临压力，因为油价上涨在周三CPI报告之前重新引发了通胀担忧。我们非常接近近期高点。30年期国债收益率几乎达到5.28，10年期国债收益率升至4.72。
HOW CONCERNING IS THIS?
这有多令人担忧？
THIS IS DEEPLY CONCERNING FOR THE BOND MARKET AND BOND VIGILANTES WANT ANSWERS ON A COUPLE OF CRUCIAL QUESTIONS. WHAT IS THE FISCAL DIRECTION OF THE U.S. AND OTHER ECONOMIES? THE SECOND QUESTION THEY WANT AN ANSWER TO IS WHAT IS THE SOLUTION TO THE INFLATION OVER SUIT WE HAVE SEEN? IF YOU LOOK AT THE U.S. AND THE U.K., WE HAVE NOT SEEN 2% INFLATION FOR A LONG TIME, FOR FIVE YEARS. TO THE CENTRAL BANKS REALLY HAVE A SOLUTION TO THIS?
这对债券市场来说非常令人担忧，债券义务警员希望在几个关键问题上得到答案。美国和其他经济体的财政方向是什么？他们想要答案的第二个问题是，我们看到的通胀问题的解决方案是什么？如果你看看美国和英国，我们已经很长时间没有看到2%的通胀率了，已经五年了。中央银行真的对此有解决方案吗？
IF NOT WE WILL PENALIZE THEM BY SENDING YIELDS HIGHER AND THAT IS WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN DOING. VONNIE: IT SEEMS LIKE A MARKET HAS GONE ON TO DIFFERENT TRACKS. EQUITIES ARE LOOKING AT EARNINGS. BONDS HAVE SUDDENLY DECIDED TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT THE FISCAL SITUATION. WHERE WAS THAT CONCERN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS?
如果不这样做，我们将通过推高收益率来惩罚他们，而他们一直在这样做。沃尼：市场似乎走上了不同的轨道。股票关注的是盈利。债券突然开始担心财政状况。过去几年这种担忧在哪里？
WE HAVE BEEN GETTING HERE IN FITS AND STARTS. WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT IS ABSOLUTELY TRUE. THE MARKET HAS THIS TENDENCY TO SET IN FITS AND STARTS. FINANCIAL MARKET STRESS IS ALWAYS EPISODIC IN NATURE. IT DOES NOT HAPPEN IN ONE CLEAN SWEEP WHERE YIELDS GO FROM 4.5 TO 5.5%. IT HAPPENS IN STAGES AND STEPS AND THAT IS THE WAY THE TRADING WORLD WORKS BECAUSE THE MARKET GOES UP, THE YIELD GOES UP A BIT AND THEN SHOTS TAKE PROFITS AND WE CO
我们一直在断断续续地到达这里。你所说的完全正确。市场有这种断断续续的倾向。金融市场的压力本质上总是间歇性的。它不会一蹴而就，比如收益率从4.5%直接跳到5.5%。它是分阶段、分步骤发生的，这就是交易世界的运作方式，因为市场上涨，收益率也小幅上升，然后空头获利了结，我们继续……
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