油价上涨与亚洲科技股走高，美股CPI前承压

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news. [music] Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krer. [music] It's proving to be a mixed day for equities across the Asia-Pacific. In the US session, stocks drifted lower in front of a report on consumer prices and American markets also had to contend with a push higher in the price of oil given the lack of a deal to restore energy flows through the straight of Hormuz.

Needless to say, higher oil prices have renewed concern about escalating inflation. And that's where [clears throat] we begin our conversation with Chi Chow, managing director at UBS. She spoke with Bloomberg TV host Sherion and Heidi Strad Watts on the Asia trade.

As usual, there's a lot of crossurrens going on for investors. How big is this inflation print in terms of broader sentiment going forward for you?

Um, I think we're just not as concerned with the inflation at this point. I mean, we're still pretty focused on the overall market and the strength of the economy. Um, so I mean even even with in inflation where it is, I mean the Fed is uh is still on hold and the progress in the uh hopefully the US Iran negotiations and uh AI growth uh we feel like the economy is still going to uh be pretty much intact and uh and we're positive and very optimistic uh towards equities uh even though it might be bumpy but uh still we have a pretty good uh price uh target for the S&P reaching about 8,200. 00.

Um, so I think uh, you know, investors should still continue to stay invested uh, and and hopefully you know the AI and and the strength of the markets will continue uh, uh, to help push equities higher.

Yeah. tell us about how you're viewing the construct of the AI the hyperscalers uh some of the developments that we've seen in that space particularly in the US because there's been ongoing concern about obviously the amount of infrastructure investment capex levels but then we're also seeing you know the rotation of huge amounts of funds in these circular funding arrangements

right absolutely I mean I think uh you know lots of concerns but we were being constructive on the AI story. Um, but we believe investors will, you know, manage the concentration and we we're hoping that investors can start to manage some of the concentration by just diversifying uh out of, you know, complete AI stocks, but maybe into other sectors like healthcare, industrials, financials. Um, even though we we feel like AI is still going to push the growth for the next probably 5 10 years, but um there's still a lot of room for investing in other defensive sectors as well.

Um, as I'm doing,

one of the non- US markets you like is China. Tell us about what you're finding compelling within Chinese equities at the moment. Is it that AI play on the basis of the gap that is being very quickly closed?

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, Chinese equities, I mean, we think uh China's, you know, has a lot of room for growth in terms of the tech equities. Um but you know outside of China you know we want to focus on you know India, Japan, uh Europe those are also a lot of good valuations in some of those markets. So I think um of course China's going to drive a lot of the growth just because where it's located and because all the investments they are also making in AI I think um it's probably worthwhile to to stay with with some of the Chinese larger tech names but also diversify among surrounding countries.

I mean uh South Korea was was also a big you know a big winner uh in the in in the last few months but I mean we're currently neutral um and we are now uh more attractive on India so I think uh China India some of the surrounding country are also good place uh in this in this market especially with the AI growth

when it comes to developments on the ceasefire or an ultimate peace deal or at least you know a specific deal to reopen the straight of Hormuz Is that meaningful for markets at the moment? Do you see any kind of big change that could could could come through?

Um, I mean, I think negotiations are improving and we do absolutely hope for a a kind of resolution, but we feel like eventual agreement with Iran, I mean, will likely keep pressure on oil um by allowing more supply to reach global markets. I mean, it's going to take some time. So, I mean, this can definitely support gold uh by easing inflation concerns and and reducing the risk for further central bank uh tightening.

So, uh I mean there's going to be some impact, but I think eventually there will be a resolution, but it's it's still going to be a kind of a bumpy road ahead to get there.

What do you like within bonds at the moment?

Well, we like um a lot about bonds. I mean, we think this is a great time to lock in yields. Um especially with US corporate bonds 5 to seven years we prefer high quality also emerging markets. Um but I think you know where rates are right now this is a really good time to uh to to to diversify your portfolio within bonds and focus on on the high quality corporate corporate bonds. Um we talked a little bit about the sort of broader opportunities within China.

I know that India is one of them. Are you constructive on broader EM as a result?

Yes. Uh emerging markets absolutely. I mean we think EM has had a good run this year. Uh but a a lot of that is uh volatile as well is uh dependent a lot on on China especially on China. So really have to see a stronger recovery in China's economy. Um and I think uh you know EN is usually EM emerging markets usually is a smaller allocation for us. Uh you know like I think it's good to be be be participating but we're still focusing more on just the core US portfolio at this point.

Um and some of the larger developing markets uh such as China and Europe and Germany and the the Euro zone overall. Uh career has of course been front and center. You've downgraded from attractive to neutral. Is that over the froth over the AI trade for you?

Uh no. I mean that's that's actually a really good point. I mean I mean Korea has certainly done very well with the memory companies and um just you know but but that a lot of that has run up pretty high uh in a short time and and know and we have a lot of clients are always favorable on the semi semimeis and equipments and foundaries but we we feel like you know focusing if you want to diversify among the semiis uh focusing on some of the compute names within semi and there's a lot of opportunities that we see in smartphone makers payment networks data centers reads and also some select uh consumer electronics.

So, a lot of that, you know, is still it's it's still a good play for some of the Korean companies. Uh but, you know, just just to diversify out um Pure Sims, I mean, these are some of the opportunities that we see.

That was Seow, managing director at UBS, speaking with Bloomberg TV host Heidi Strad Watts and Sher on. Coming up, we'll take a look at the yen story with Bloomberg News macro strategist Michael Ball. That's ahead [music] on the Daybreak Asia podcast. Welcome back to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krishnner. The focus now is on the foreign exchange and the Japanese yen in particular. We've seen some renewed selling pressure as the market looks for a return to that 160 level against the US dollar.

Now, in New York trading on Tuesday, the yen was little changed, but it remains clear that there is concern about possible intervention. Again, we already know that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant has said the US is willing to support the Japanese currency, and many on Wall Street have speculated that part of his motivation is to keep Japanese authorities from selling US treasuries as a way of raising dollars. For a closer look, I spoke with Bloomberg News macro strategist Michael Ball.

It was pretty a surprising move, but everyone had been kind of anticipating this given the fact that the yen had been so weak for such a long time.

Yeah,

it a

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