特朗普对伊朗态度强硬，英伟达联手私募信贷推5000亿美元AI基建

Good morning. It is Tuesday, August the 11th. Here's what's on the agenda. Oil holding gains as Trump makes sweeping new demands on Iran. Bonds for gold rallies about 4400 with inflation in focus. And Nvidia partners with private credit in a $500 billion AI infrastructure push. Okay, so let's talk about that. Brent price 8801 is where we are right now. We're up by 3/10 of 1%. Doesn't look like the Strait of Hormuz is going to be opening anytime soon.

It looks like the Trump administration is going to take the long road to that. I pushing on the finance story rather than the kinetic story I think probably is what we're watching there. You're so 50 futures doing absolutely nothing. You get back into the earnings season really tomorrow. Donnie Yen is certainly one to watch out for Japan. Maybe close today we're watching a return to that 160 level. How quickly can we get there?

What kind of a narrative emerges if we do get that? That is the key question that we continue to watch, and what the unfolding story in treasuries might look like will be really interesting. So lots to discuss this morning. The countdown to the opening trade starts right now. Good morning. So another day and another about face from President Trump when it comes to his position on Iran. New demands from the Iranian side to the Iranian side, including compensation for what he describes as the deaths of tens of thousands of Iranian protesters.

We're at a point now where both sides, Skyler and Guy, are essentially making claims and demands from the other side. That will be seen by their counterparts as, frankly, ludicrous. So do we rethink the timeline? Is this now? There is consensus among many who come on this show that we will ultimately get a deal between the two sides. Is this the path to a deal, or is there a need for rethinking the fact that maybe this what we're currently seeing right now the friction around the strike.

This is the status quo. And then how do we think about the implications for that, for the global economy, for inflation and for trade? If you're going to negotiate do you go big. And this is Trump's strategy. Kind of push the envelope wider. Put new things into the envelope that you're going to have to discuss. Is that the precursor to a deal if both sides are kind of making big, extravagant, exorbitant claims that of what they need.

Is that is that the kind of we're getting we're getting to the point at which a deal can be done. I we've kind of made we exhausted everything else. We're now at the maximal position. So therefore you're going to get a deal. Or is it. We're so far apart we're never going to get a deal. I can't work I can't work out which one of those two things. It feels very much like the we're not going to get a deal anytime soon. Yeah.

Book it. And I think if you look at betting markets, that's the clearest sign. Right. You know, there was a little bit of increased optimism last week. But you only had betting markets rise to 50% odds that you'd get a deal by the end of the year. We're only in August. That's still quite a lot of months of commercial closure. Um, and I think now that's just lower. So do we continue to push the old price higher because because that that it's happened.

But it's not it's not like we're getting to 120 bucks a barrel. We're in that kind of we're in the 90 level, but we're also exhausting the space around the world. So at some point when we all come back up for summer holidays, do we suddenly see it being pushed sharply to the upside? And then you get the big bull market reaction that comes off that? I think right now it very much feels like fatigue from a market perspective.

So if you look at open interest and calls and puts that had surged in July and it's come back down to like very normal levels within this crisis. Um, so maybe people just don't want a position because you're getting whipsawed so much. It's the summer, you know, you're waiting for something more concrete. I will say, though, that the skew within the risk reversal call puts calls are more expensive than puts. So people are still more worried about upside surprises than lower gas futures.

Gas prices they jumped yesterday say diesel prices are up about 10% year to date. European gas is up about 120%. I felt a bit squeezy, didn't I? Clearly there was a kind of repositioning. You don't get those kinds of moves on a normal day. So there was obviously a market reposition yesterday. But the fear going into and we'll talk about this later in the show, the fear going into the winter is that Europe doesn't have enough diesel and Europe doesn't have enough gas, and that's going to be a problem because we need both of those two things.

And if you're going to see the inflationary impact, the second, third round and fourth effects coming off, that could be quite significant. I mean, absolutely, I think generally within Europe, people have gotten more optimistic. But the worry is very much as you head into winter and I think more broadly within assets, what we've seen overnight is that oil market move feeding into equities differently than bonds within equities.

You know they've held up quite well I think in the US. It was a relatively boring session actually. But you're still seeing that pressure on bonds because of the worry within the inflation outlook. The other interesting dynamic that we've had that's changed is that gold is now rallying with oil. Now, you know, some of that could be the fact that we did have lower yields. We had lower dollar on the NFP print, but it continued yesterday.

And so, you know, is that a change in relationship where people are thinking inflation's going to come down and maybe it's a different reaction function and yields and the dollar than it is in gold than it was previously. Or is it China. Because we've seen ETFs go back to ETFs in China adding in terms of inflows. We've even seen reporting that the PBoC itself is starting to buy gold again. So how much of China how much of it is a rethinking about the fed.

And does this get blown off course if CPI comes in hotter tomorrow and reinvigorates bets around the fed? Of course that had been taken off the back of end of last week on the job data. I can't work out of. I'm more excited about CPI or the 30 year auction that comes later in the week. How much are you going to? How much is the US going to have to pay for long term debt? I appreciate that it's not like a lot of financing that far out, but like we're north of 5%.

And I mean, it's a more interesting debate now because you bring up the intervention in terms of if you have higher yields, and we know that we're getting a weaker yen throughout this week, unless we get some kind of intervention or we get a surprise from CPI. And so, you know, does that mean you get some kind of reaction in the yen when you have those higher yields. Okay. Let's talk about the other kind of debt related story.

And that's what's happening with I there's a couple of stories that really stand out, one of which is Intel raising a bunch of money equity money. Yeah, 20 billion about about 20% because it's getting scaled up. But we continue to to watch that one. And then you wonder who's next to who else is going to raise equity because credit is starting to get a little expensive. So this has been a lot of there's been a lot of debt financing.

And then you come back to this story that the Jensen has been pushing over the last 24 hours. He's basically corralled everybody around a nice round table, um, to talk about how private equity and private credit they're going to be involved in financing this stuff, which sounds excellent for Nvidia. You guys finance it and then you can buy my chips. And it's going to be great for me. So Jensen thank you very much. Very nice.

Um, so you guys come in. It's nice to see you. Um. But you. But you look at Nvidia's cards. It's just going up and up and up. I appreciate the hyperscalers are rolling over, bu

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