日元再度走弱，英伟达5000亿美元AI合作引关注

[music] Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts radio news. Welcome to the Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Doug Krishnner. [music] A group of six major US investment firms will now partner with Nvidia on AI projects and they will bring with them a funding package worth $500 billion. Shares in Nvidia were down 2.9% in New York trading. Elsewhere among the chip makers, Intel is seeking to increase the amount it's raising in a share sale to about $20 billion.

That's a third more than Intel had been targeting. Now, analysts say it could help further cushion a balance sheet already burdened with debt and substantially help fund projects for AI, including building foundry capacity without adding leverage. Intel in the regular session was down 4%. And in the foreign exchange, the yen weakened against the dollar in New York trading and erased half the gains it made when authorities from both the US and Japan intervened in the foreign exchange to support the Japanese currency.

That's where we start our conversation with David Savage. He's market strategist for the M Live blog on the Bloomberg terminal. David, joining from our studios in Hong Kong. Thank you so much for being here. Talk to me about what we're seeing with this renewed weakness in the Japanese currency. I think in New York trading we were down as much as 1%. It doesn't seem like the intervention is got kind of lasting effect here.

Yeah, that's right. I I think it's it's a pretty uh remarkable remarkably quick turnaround. Uh so, you know, we we saw the intervention that brought dollar yen, you know, just above 155. we've now retraced, you know, more than half of that move, you know, fairly quickly um back above 159. uh and and I think that shows uh that even in the presence of you know broader dollar weakness unless you know intervention is is followed up with more significant moves moreover if it's not followed up with a more hawkish stance from the the BOJ you know traders are going to keep kind of dipping back into this this carry trade as long as you know you have these real yield differentials.

I'm glad you brought up the central bank policy because if you look at what's happening today in the crude oil space, a lot of concern about the inflationary pressures being lasting and I'm wondering if you can accept the idea that the Fed is going to be on hold at the very least for a while longer. Is the Bank of Japan motivated now given the fact that inflation is proving to be a little bit stubborn? Are they maybe going to have to lean into this a little bit more aggressively? particularly when you consider the fact that the currency has been just so weak.

I I think that's right. I mean, I think what what the FX markets are showing is that unless you have a a a more hawkish posture from the BOJ, we're going to continue to see this sort of incremental uh currency weakness, which ultimately feeds back into uh higher bond yields and uh you know, a a imported inflation. So uh you know right now the market's kind of pricing in you know one more hike uh you know more than you know one more hike uh for the bank of Japan but we're coming from a very low level.

So, you know, the FX markets are absolutely, you know, flashing that, you know, at this point the Bank of Japan is is behind the curve. Uh, and unless again you have a real pullback in oil prices, uh, or, you know, another round of sort of coordinated intervention, you know, dollar yen is going to keep grinding higher. What has been the reaction to the strategy that the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant was involved in in terms of using the foreign and international monetary authority repurchase facility as a way of facilitating uh a little bit of the intervention here where you wouldn't necessarily force Japan to be a seller of US treasuries. they could simply maybe borrow dollars and sell dollars as a way of creating a little bit of yen strength.

Well, I I think with dollar yen back up to 159, I think that's showing that the market is perceiving that intervention as uh you know, more of a stop gap uh and less of a a permanent uh posture. Uh and so, you know, again, I think it it's really going to take a a more convincing uh intervention. Uh but more likely it's going to take uh a a a change in posture from the Bank of Japan, which to this point uh just hasn't occurred yet.

So, we have a market holiday in Japan. Really tough to gauge uh the reaction that we had in New York trading in terms of the move higher for US Treasury yields. Treasuries in the cash market will begin trading in the London session. A lot of concern about the weakness that we had in the chip stocks during New York trading. We had the Philadelphia semiconductor index down by about 2.9%. And we're seeing a little bit of weakness right now in some of the big chip players in South Korea.

Samsung SKH down about 1% each. What's the feeling in terms of the trade right now for the South Korean equity market? Is it all about following the lead of of chip stocks or is there something more a foot? [snorts]

I think it's two-part. I think it's one, yes, absolutely. We we see that if if you have some positive yield uh leads from US chip makers, uh that tends to to bode well for um not just Korea, but but Taiwan and and Japan as well. But I think in particular for Korea, you know, they were sort of at the vanguard of this, you know, really uh, you know, fierce equity momentum, you know, leveraged um, you know, surge higher.

And in July that really unwound, uh, quite violently. And so the Cosby even now is still, you know, over 30% off of its its highs from late June. Uh and so I think there's there's a there's a sort of a particular market structure component in in Korea where you've had the this you know real influence of leveraged ETFs there. Um and on on the good note there is is we've really seen the volumes and flows you know really come out of those uh products and uh actually we've seen actually you know small caps in Korea start to outperform uh as sort of retail flows you know move elsewhere.

But I think that also points um to you know the potential that it can take time for you know an equity momentum to to come back into these stocks.

So when you look at the South Korean market and you look at the charts the technical analysis I mean is it continuing to point to kind of a bearish mood here? Could there be further downside? I think it the the charts aren't pretty. And I think what it also shows is you know what you see is volumes really across the board are are uh you know essentially half of what they they were um a month ago. So really I think a lot of the hype has kind of come out of that trade.

Uh and you know so on on one hand I think that probably means that sort of the worst of the sort of leveraged washout has has probably passed. Um but you know I think now we're left thinking you know what is the catalyst that is going to sort of reignite uh you know interest and flows you know because any you know sign of strength we see both retail and even foreign funds continue to sell into that strength. Uh so that continues to weigh on it but uh on the fundamental side of course valuations still look really really attractive.

So I think the the concern right now is you know is there sort of a fundamental um you know risk out there that markets aren't yet aware of um to because the market is so tied to the memory trade in particular you know Samsung and SKH highix are basically half of the Cosby so you know I think that's a lingering risk particularly after we had a month of of a lot of uh developments on the AI side

so speaking of memory I mean, there's a a big company in China, CXMT, that's been very much in the forefront of China's appetite for memory chips. What do we glean from the activity that CXMT has been been uh able to attract uh particularly with the IPO now and and a lot of conversation around uh maybe moves beyond just the memory space in terms of ove

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