美联储何时加息？分析师称9月或成关键节点

Hey everyone, and thanks for jumping back into the macroverse. Today, we're going to talk about the upcoming FOMC meeting occurring tomorrow, and when the Federal Reserve is likely going to raise interest rates. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thumbs up, and check out the sale on ITC Premium at intothecryptoverse.com. As a reminder, we do have the first Investing Through the Cycles Conference ITC coming up in November.

Make sure you guys check that out. We've got a lot of great speakers already lined up, and we'll be we will be announcing more speakers in the coming weeks. We've already got several great speakers. I'm sure you guys know all of them, but go take a look on the website, and I look forward to seeing you guys there. So, the sort of the the the big question right now in the room is is the Fed going to raise rates, and if they do, when are they going to raise rates?

There have been some banks that have come out and have said suggested that they think the Fed's going to raise interest rates tomorrow on July 29th. My guess is that the Fed will keep rates constant tomorrow, but raise rates likely in September. And I want to talk about kind of how that would fit the narratives that we've been talking about. At the end of the day, you know, price follows, or sorry, narrative follows price, not the other way around, but it would make a lot of sense in thinking about how this business cycle is is likely going to continue to play out.

So, if you go look at at interest rates, right? You can see that the Fed started raising rates back in, you know, 2022, and they continued to raise rates and then they kind of held constant in 2023 and 2024 and then they lowered rates three times in 2024 and they lowered rates three times in 2025. And now the question is is well, are they going to raise rates again? One thing to consider is the long end of the yield curve.

When you look at the 10-year yield, I've talked about this for a long time that the 10-year yield would likely be heading back up to the high in October of 2023. The 30-year yield already did that and my guess is that it's going to break out soon and that the 10-year yield will start to follow it. Now, what I think is likely going to happen is that the Fed is not going to raise rates tomorrow. If they do raise rates tomorrow, then that will come as somewhat of a surprise to me.

That doesn't mean that they can't raise rates, I just think it's very unlikely. And if you look at a chart like this, it would all make sense if they don't raise rates looking at this chart and let me explain. The 30-year yield looks like it wants to move higher, right? Like it's been moving up against this level for years. This 5.1 5.2% level. You can see it it keeps going down after testing it, but it keeps going right back up to that level and it keeps on putting in higher lows.

I think what's going to happen is the Fed will likely hold rates and I could see sort of the the bond vigilantes coming out and saying, "No, raising rates is needed right now." And you could argue that raising rates is needed according to the bond market, perhaps because labor market is still relatively okay and there's this fear that inflation might start to come back. Now, in the short term, in the short term inflation, you know, hasn't like over the last month you could argue all right, inflation wasn't a huge issue.

We actually saw inflation come back down, but let's walk through this for a minute. Inflation went up from 2. 2.4% to four over 4.1% in just a few months and then it had a big drop back down at 3.4 3.5. Now, that looks good, right? That it's heading back in the right direction and you couple that with energy, if you look at like XLE, energy when that print came out was all the way down here. Yeah, you know, at around 52 53.

This was XLE. But, the problem is from a technical perspective, maybe XLE was just back testing this and if energy is poised to go higher because there because the markets aren't crap like the the the labor market is fine, then the only you could argue that energy could still be a headwind in in the short term and thereby making inflation a larger risk. Now, when you look at the labor market, if you look at initial claims, we just put in the lowest initial claims that I think I've seen.

I mean, it was 187,000. I don't even know the last time we were at that level, right? 187? I mean, when is the last time that that happened? You'd have to go back decades, I believe. So, if if initial claims are low and and energy is starting to show a little bit of a bid again, then you run the risk with inflation that inflation might start to creep back up. Now, you could say, "Well, this is a pretty nice drop." And it is, but you know, there have been other times where you had a big move up by inflation for it to then drop back down, but then it accelerated once again to the upside.

So, I think what the bond market is telling us is is it saying that the issue right now is not with the labor market. The issue is with inflation. And if you look at the unemployment rate If you look at the unemployment rate it's 4.2, right? It's actually been generally trending down since November of 2025, right? So, perhaps the market is saying, "Look, the labor market's fine, but inflation is kind of a concern. And if the Fed does not hike tomorrow, which I don't think they will, it might be the perfect excuse for the 10-year yield to head back up to 5% and it could be the perfect excuse for the 30-year yield to break through 5.2%, which has been the level that it's been rejected at since 2023.

So, when you think about all this, does it make sense in terms of the market views that we provided? Well, the first thing I will say is this. Think about when the Fed cut rates in or sorry, when the Fed raised rates. No, when the Fed cut rates. Think about when the Fed cut rates in 2024 and 2025. When did they start? Did they start in July? No. They started in September. If you look at the Fed funds rate in 2024 and 2025, the cuts started in September of '24 and September of '25.

So, I would say it would almost be unprecedented, at least in recent history, that they would start raising rates in the summer for the first time. I would argue they're most likely going to hold rates constant and then raise rates in September. And the reason why is because I think I think if they hold rates constant, which is what I think they're going to do, the the bond vigilantes are going to revolt. The long end of the yield curve is going to go up and then the Fed's going to realize, oh, maybe we need to hike rates, especially if if the energy trade starts to come back.

So, that's kind of how I think this is going to happen. And the reason why it makes sense is because we've talked as well about the S&P likely getting a correction in, you know, in um the sort of the back end of the of the or the second half of the midterm year and it would be in line with prior corrections, like when we had prior corrections. If you look at at 2022, you had a correction in stocks starting in August.

If you look at 2018, you had a correction by stocks starting in September. And if you look at 2014, you had a correction in stocks starting in um like September time frame. So, you have three midterm years in recent history. One of those midterm years, 2018, Trump was also president. And in all three cases, you have a 10 to 20% drop by stocks. So, think about it. If the Fed does not raise rates and the bond market the bond market revolts, long end goes up, that'd be a good sort of a good catalyst for a potential correction in the back half of the year.

Look at what happened in 2023. The bond market was long end of the yield curve is going up and there was a correction starting in late July. And it was about a 10% drop. So, what I'm saying is I I we're about to see a 10 to 20% drop in stocks. Now, that doesn't in the stock in the S&P. That

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