SpaceX财报后股价跌11.8%，明日1010亿美元解禁

THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY REPORTING FOR THE MAGAZINE THAT HELPS LOCAL LEADERS STAY AHEAD. WITH INSIGHT ON THE PEOPLE AND INSIGHTS. THIS IS BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK. CAROL: A VERY GOOD AFTERNOON ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS, WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY. BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS, WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY. WE HAVE A LOT GOING ON ON THIS WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5 TO SAY THE LEAST. IN TERMS OF THE S&P 500 WE CAME OUT OF THE GATE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER HITTING A RECORD WE ARE STILL GOING TO BE AT A RECORD HERE BUT WE ARE DEFINITELY OFF OF OUR HIGHS ON THE SESSION.

LITTLE CHANGED OVERALL WHEN IT COMES TO THE MAJOR AVERAGES. SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN THE S&P 500, DOWN ABOUT ONE THIRD 1% ON THE NASDAQ. TIM: EVEN IF WE ARE IN THE GREEN JUST ONE POINT HIGHER THEN WE HAVE A NEW RECORD BECAUSE OF WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY. SO FAR THIS MONTH, THE S&P 500 IS UP THREE POINT 4%. THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE UP 4.4%. CAROL: WE HAVE A LOT GOING ON ON THIS AUGUST 5. IT DOES FEEL LIKE IT'S A MUST-SEE LINEUP AND IT FEELS IN AN ODD WAY THAT ALL OF IT IS KIND OF CONNECTED IF YOU WILL.

WHAT DO WE HAVE COMING UP THE DAY AFTER THE SPACEX EARNINGS. WE ARE STILL FOLLOWING THROUGH TODAY. WE SEE THE SHARE PRICE DOWN FOLLOWING THE COMPANY'S SPLURGE ON AI EFFORTS. TALKING ABOUT THE $101 BILLION UNLOCK WHEN IT COMES TO SHARES. A LOT OF SHARES COMING ON THE MARKET THAT HAPPENS TOMORROW. BUT ALSO ON AI WE HAVE THE LATEST FUND RAISE INVESTIGATING NAMES LIKE ANTHROPIC. CAROL: WE WILL BE JOINT -- TIM: WE WILL BE JOINED BY LARRY ASHBROOK ALONG WITH BAILEY LIPSCHULTZ IN A FEW MINUTES.

CAROL: SOMETHING ON THIS WEDNESDAY. I KEEP THINKING IT IS THURSDAY. TIM: SPEAKING OF PRODUCTION MARKETS, THE COUNCIL OVER ON KALSHI. CONTINUE TO PILE UP. CAROL: THE MASSIVE BOND MARKET WE HAD A FED MEETING LAST WEEK WANT TO GET INTO WHAT'S NEXT FOR RATES WITH KATIE KAMINSKI. I DID A DEEP DIVE A STORY A FEW YEARS AGO SHE SAID SOMETHING ABOUT WHERE THE TENURE MIGHT BE HEADED. BUT HERE WE ARE. WE CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT IT.

TIM: DIDN'T QUITE GET THERE BUT GOT CLOSE. CURIOUS TO SEE WHERE SHE IS IN THIS CYCLE. CAROL: WE GOT IT ALL TIED TOGETHER. LET'S KICK THINGS OFF WITH A CHECK ON THE TRADE HERE. CHARLIE: WE'VE GOT THE DOW PUSHING HIGHER OF RECORD ON THE DOW UP FOR 65 RIGHT NOW. S&P MEANDERING FLUCTUATING TAKE YOUR PICK RIGHT NOW HIGHER BY TWO. A LITTLE CHANGE BUT NASDAQ SELLING OFF IN THE NASDAQ 100 INDEX AS IS THE PHILADELPHIA SEMICONDUCTOR STOCK INDEX DOWN BY 3/10 OF 1%.

AMD WEIGHING ON THAT INDEX. DOWN 125, 5/10 OF 1%. ALL OF THIS WITH THE VIX BELOW 16. THE TWO YOU'RE CURRENTLY MOVING 4.18 PERCENT. THE 10 YEAR 4.61%. SURGING NOW BY 4.3%. 40 TO 53 THE OZ ON SPOT GOLD. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. WTI 7491 A BARREL. CRUDE DOWN 1.3%. BRENT CRUDE DOWN BY 3/10 OF ONE PERCENT. SPACE X AFTER EARNINGS IT IS DOWN BY 11.8%. THE COMPANY EXPOSED HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SPENDING ON ITS AI BUSINESS AND WE HAVE ABOUT $101 MILLION UNLOCK WHEN WE WILL SEE WHAT HAPPENS WHEN INSIDER START SPOUT -- START SELLING.

AGAIN AFTER EARNINGS DOWN BY 6.1%. TIM AND CAROL THAT IS YOUR BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: WE WANTS TO GET TO WHAT IS SAFE TO SAY THE BIG EARNINGS STORY OF THE WEEK. CERTAINLY TODAY, SPACEX SHARES FALLING AFTER THE COMPANY DISCLOSED HIGHER-THAN-EXPECTED SPENDING ON ITS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BUSINESS SPOTTING AN INAUGURAL EARNINGS RELEASE THAT BROADLY EXCEEDED WALL STREET ESTIMATES. OUR INVESTORS PERHAPS NOT UNDERSTANDING THE BIGGER STORY.

I'M JUST SAYING IT IS SOMETHING TO CONSIDER. LET'S GET TO IT. INVESTORS ARE BRACING FOR THE NEXT POTENTIAL HIT TALKING ABOUT $101 BILLION WORTH OF STOCK BECOMING AVAILABLE FOR TRADING TOMORROW. JOINING US IS GLOBAL HEAD OF TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH, MANDEEP SINGH. HE JOINS US IN NEW YORK CITY. CAROL: -- TIM: WITH THIS TYPE OF THING IS IT PRICED IN? WE DON'T KNOW WHAT THE BEHAVIOR OF THESE INVESTORS WILL BE TOMORROW, BUT IS SOME SORT OF VOLATILITY ALREADY PRICED IN WITH THE STOCK RIGHT NOW?

MANDEEP: IF NOBODY WANTS TO BUY THE STOCK TODAY THAT'S DOWN 10% WHEN THE FLOW IS DOUBLED, YOU CAN EXPECT MORE PRESSURE ON THE STOCK. SO IT IS REALLY A QUESTION OF HOW MUCH STOCK IS AVAILABLE. TIM: JUST BECAUSE THE LOCKUP EXPIRES DOESN'T MEAN PEOPLE WILL SELL IT ESPECIALLY AT THIS PRICE. MANDEEP: RIGHT NOW NOBODY IS BUYING IT AND IN FACT THE STOCK IS DOWN 10%. SO IT IS IN ANTICIPATION OF THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE TWICE THE FLOW AVAILABLE NEXT WEEK.

FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE IT MAKES SENSE THAT THE MARKET IS ANTICIPATING THE FLOW AND GIVEN THE FUNDAMENTALS PEOPLE FEEL THIS IS A FAIR PRICE RIGHT NOW. CAROL: THAT DOES NOT SEEM GOOD. TIM: DEPENDS ON WHO YOU ARE. MANDEEP: WITH THE COMPANY-LIKE SPACE X, WHAT THEY OUTLINED IN TERMS OF NEAR-TERM GOALS AND 2030 GOALS. I MEAN LOOK, IT SOUNDS AMBITIOUS AND THE REASON WHY THE MARKET IS NOT BELIEVING ELON MUSK RIGHT NOW WHEN -- WITH THEIR FORECAST IS BECAUSE WHAT HAPPENED WITH ROBOTAXIS AND HIS OTHER FORECAST.

CLEARLY THE TIMELINES HAVE BEEN SHIFTING AND EVEN THOUGH HE HAS DONE GREAT THINGS IN THE MEANTIME WHEN IT COMES TO PUTTING NUMBERS AND KIND OF GIVING TIMELINES HIS TRACK RECORD ISN'T THAT GREAT. FROM THAT PERSPECTIVE THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT PENDING CAPACITY BY 2027. THERE IS CURRENTLY THERE ARE ONE POINT FOUR TARGETING TO GIGAWATTS BY YEAR-END. HOW DID THEY GET FROM TWO TO 10? NONE OF THE HYPERSCALERS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO DO THAT, TO GET THERE FROM TWO TO 10 YOU NEED UP TO FOUR HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS IN CAPEX.

THAT'S NOT GOING TO HAPPEN. TWO HUNDRED BILLION DOLLARS IS AMBITIOUS FOR A COMPANY THAT GENERATED $3 BILLION IN OPERATING CASH FLOW RIGHT NOW. SO ALL THESE QUESTIONS AROUND FUNDING. THIS COMPANY IS ALREADY ONE POINT $5 TRILLION IN MARKET CAP AND THEY HAVE 100 BILLION DOLLARS ON THE BALANCE SHEET. SO IT IS NOT AS IF THEY ARE A NEW CLIENT THAT HAS TO RAISE A LOT OF MONEY. THEY ALREADY HAVE MONEY. BUT THE SCALE HE IS TALKING ABOUT IS JUST TOO BIG TO BELIEVE.

AND I DON'T THINK THEY'RE GOING TO GET TO 10 GIGAWATTS. BUT EVEN IF THEY GET TO SIX, THEY WILL BECOME THE FIRST DUTCH THIRD-LARGEST CLOUD PROVIDER AFTER AMAZON, MICROSOFT AND GOOGLE. SO THAT IS HUGE. AS AN INVESTOR YOU HAVE TO FIGURE OUT WHAT IS REALISTIC VERSUS WHAT IS AT THE HIGH END AND IF THE REALISTIC TARGET IS SIX, THEY COULD DO UP TO SIX GIGAWATTS AND THAT WOULD BE HUGE IN THE CONTEXT OF REVENUES. CAROL: THAT'S WHAT YOU THINK IS REALISTIC.

MANDEEP: I AM IN BETWEEN. I FEEL THIS IS THE PART WHERE EVERYONE SEEMS TO BE MAKING MONEY RIGHT NOW IS THE CLOUD LISTING THE HYPERSCALERS ARE MAKING MONEY. WHETHER IT'S MICROSOFT, GOOGLE OR AMAZON THEY HAD GREAT PRINTS SELLING COMPUTER ON THE CLOUD. THAT IS WHAT SPACE X IS SAYING THEY WANT TO DO AND THEY HAVE SHEET TO DO IT JUST NOT AT THE SCALE ELONG TALKED ABOUT LAST NIGHT. CAROL: YET. TIM: EVEN THOUGH THE BIGGEST BUSINESS IS STARLINK, THE THING THAT POWERS TO THESE AUDACIOUS 2030 GOALS IS BECOMING NOT NECESSARILY A HYPERSCALER BUT SELLING THE SAME TYPE OF COMPUTER DESK COMPUTER THAT IS AVAILABLE AT AMAZON AND MICROSOFT, MAY BE AT META.

AND THE NEO-CLOUDS.

COREWEAVE. TIM: THAT IS THEIR VALUE PROPOSITION NOW. MANDEEP: IN FACT YOU DON'T NEED TO GO TO 2030. HE SAID BY THE END OF THIS YEAR THEY WILL HIT 100 BILLION DOLLARS IN OUR AI URN AND BASED ON OUR NUMBERS 70% OF THAT WILL COME FROM THAT AI PIECE AND ALMOST 50 TO 60% WILL BE CLOUD HOSTING. TIM: CROSSING THE TERMINAL THAT FITS RIGHT IN THIS, MICROSOFT AI SALES JUST CROSSING MOSTLY COME FROM OPENAI ACCORDING TO DISCLOSURES.

MICROSOFT DISCLOSURE SUGGEST OPENAI 70% OF AI SALES BUT WE SEE MICROSOFT STARTING TO DROP EARLIER BY 1.5%. IT'S BOUNCED UP A LITTLE SINCE THEN. DOWN 8/10 OF 1% RIGHT NOW. WHAT DOES THIS TELL YOU? MANDEEP: THERE IS INCREDIBLE CONCENTRATION. WHEN THEY SAY IT WILL GET TO $200 BILLION AND 70% OF THAT IS AI, THE CLOUD COMPUTING CONSUMPTION WILL STILL BE ANTHROPIC, I DON'T THINK IT WILL BE OPENAI IN THE CASE OF SPACE X. EITHER ANTHROPIC OR GOOGLE AND THOSE OF THE TWO COMPANIES THEY WORK AND PARTNER WITH. $47.5 BILLION, THE BULK OF IT COMES FROM ANTHR

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