台积电上调销售与支出展望，AI涨势面临审视

VONNIE: 5:00 IN NEW YORK CITY, 10:00 A.M. IN LONDON. LET'S GET YOU SET FOR THE DAY. TSMC'S AI OPTIMISM. RAISING SPENDING AND BOOSTING THE REVENUE OUTLOOK. MARKET CAUTION PREVAILS AS TRADERS WAY EARNINGS AND THE STRENGTH OF THE AI TRADE. THE U.S. COMPLETES ITS LATEST AIRSTRIKES ON IRAN WITH TENSIONS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF EASING. GLOBALLY, KOREA IMPLEMENTING MARKET STABILITY MEASURES. LET'S GET THE COMMENT WITH WINNIE HSU.

WINNI E: KOREAN STOCKS LEADING DECLINES IN ASIA TODAY IN EXPECTATION TO AUTHORITIES TIGHTENING RULES AROUND ETF'S. WE HAD AN ANNOUNCEMENT ABOUT AN HOUR AGO WITH SOUTH KOREA SAYING THEY ARE TEMPORARILY HALTING THE NEW LISTING OF THE SINGLE STOCK LEVERAGED ETFS UNTIL MARKET CONDITIONS STABILIZE. THEY WILL BE RAISING THE MINIMUM DEPOSIT REQUIREMENTS AND EXPECTING IMPLEMENTATION TO START IN A FEW WEEKS. THAT IS LIKELY GOING TO RESTRICT SOME OF THE ACCESSIBILITY ESPECIALLY FOR RETAIL INVESTORS.

WHEN IT COMES TO THE CENTRAL BANK MOVES WE DID SEE BANK OF KOREA RAISING RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER THREE YEARS WHICH IS HELPING TO STRENGTHEN. YOU FLIP THE BOARD AND TAKE A LOOK AT THE BROADER ASIAN MARKET. A CRACKDOWN BY TECHNOLOGY SHARES BUT THE BRIGHT SPOT IS TECHNOLOGY SHARES IN HONG KONG. WE DID HEAR FROM APPLE AFTER TWO YEARS OF WAITING TO GET THAT APPROVAL FROM CHINA FOR ITS APPLE INTELLIGENCE. THE AI FEATURE IT'S WORKING ON WITH BAIDU AND THAT IS ALSO HELPING THE SHARES OF BAIDU ON TOP OF HOW WE JUST HEARD THAT THEY ARE PURSUING A PRIMARY LISTING ON THE NASDAQ IN HONG KONG.

THANK YOU SO MUCH, A WINNIE HSU IN HONG KONG. TO LONDON WHERE MARKETS ARE EVALUATING A POTENTIAL NEW CHANCELLOR. JUSTINA LEE HAS MORE FROM THE EUROPEAN SESSION. JUSTINA: U.K. POLITICAL HEADLINE, A QUICK UPDATE ON EUROPEAN MARKETS. STOXX 600 DOWN A LITTLE BIT DRAGGED DOWN BY FINANCIAL SERVICES. GENERALLY YIELDS ARE UP. DRAWING SPECIAL ATTENTION TO THE U.K. BECAUSE WE HAVE A BIG NEWS STORY OUT OF THE U.K. YESTERDAY, TODAY THE U.K.

BOND MARKET UP FOR THE 10 YEAR AND THAT'S RETRACING SOME OF THE MOVES WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTER THEY REPORTED THE INCOMING NEW PRIME MINISTER ANDY BURNHAM HAS PICKED THE HOME SECRETARY TO BE THE NEW CHANCELLOR TO HEAD THE U.K. TREASURY. THAT IS GENERALLY SEEN AS QUITE A MARKET FRIENDLY MOVE BECAUSE SHE IS SEEN AS A MORE FISCALLY CONSERVATIVE A LITTLE BIT MORE CENTRIST MAY BE COMPARED TO THE OTHER CANDIDATES MARKETS WERE AFRAID OF.

A LITTLE BIT OF REVERSAL TODAY WITH THE POUND ALSO DEPRECIATING. WE FLIPPED THE BOARD HERE AND WE CAN SEE THE BIG MARKET MOVE WE SAW YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AFTER THIS HEADLINE CAME OUT WITH THE POUND RISING TO THE STRONGEST ALMOST THREE MONTHS ON THE BACK OF THAT NEWS. THE MARKETS BREATHING A SIGH OF RELIEF THERE. VONNIE: HERE IN THE U.S., WE LOOK TO A LITTLE RED IN THE OPEN. BENIGN DATA ON INFLATION THE LAST TWO DAYS. THIS ROTATION FROM SEMIS AND THE HYPERSCALERS IT'S JUST GOING ON AND ON DAY AFTER DAY AND THERE DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ANY RHYME OR REASON TO IT.

EVERY PIECE OF NEWS WE'VE GOTTEN FROM THE MAJOR COMPANIES ACROSS ASIA AND THE U.S. ON AI, UPPING THEIR VISIBILITY TELLING US MORE ABOUT WHAT'S TO COME IN THE FUTURE YET THE MARKET DOESN'T SEEM TO BE ABLE TO MAKE UP ITS MIND. WE HAVE THE VIX MUTED. AND THEN OF COURSE YOU HAVE WHAT'S GOING ON IN THE MIDDLE EAST WHICH DOES SEEM TO BE ESCALATING. FOR NOW WE HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A DOWN PICTURE FOR EQUITIES. LET'S MOVE TO YIELDS WHERE WE HAD A LITTLE BIT OF RELIEF.

WE HAVE THE TWO-YEAR BACK DOWN TO BELOW 4.16. THE 30 YEAR UP THERE. LESS OF THE LONG AND THEN OF THE SHORT END. OIL PRICES HOLDING STEADY. WE ARE SEEING THOSE SKIRMISHES A LITTLE BIT IN TEMPERATURE AND IT DOES BEAR WATCHING WHAT HAPPENS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. LET'S GET INDIVIDUAL MOVERS NOW. CHLOE: ADDITIONAL STRAIN ON THIS AI TRADE. TSMC CAME OUT WITH SOME STRONG NUMBERS AND RAISED ITS OUTLOOK FOR SPENDING BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME WEAKNESS IN THOSE THIS MORNING DOWN MORE THAN 3%, INDICATING PERSISTENT CONCERNS FROM INVESTORS.

UNITED AIRLINES WHICH IS ALSO IN THE RED THIS MORNING AFTER RAISING ITS OUTLOOK. THAT OUTLOOK DISAPPOINTING INVESTORS ALSO THE CONCERNS ABOUT THOSE RISING FUEL PRICES WHICH REALLY MAJOR HEADWIND FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE SECTOR. THIS SEEMS TO BE WHAT INVESTORS ARE FOCUSED ON THIS MORNING. WE ARE DOWN MORE THAN 2%. A PSYCHEDELIC DRUG MAKER SOARING THIS MORNING ON THE NEWS A ELI LILLY IS IN TALKS TO ACQUIRE THE COMPANY. THIS SHOWS THIS FRINGE AREA OF MEDICINE IS ATTRACTING MORE AND MORE INTEREST FROM THOSE TRADITIONAL PHARMACEUTICAL PLAYERS.

WE ARE UP MORE THAN 50% THIS MORNING. VONNIE: CHLOE WILL BE BACK LATER IN THE HOUR. ALSO COMING UP, J.P. MORGAN PRIVATE BANK. WALL STREET EARNINGS WE WILL ALSO BE SPEAKING WITH SAUL MARTINEZ OF HSBC. WE WILL GET HIS THOUGHTS POST EARNINGS. LET'S KICK THINGS OFF WITH TSMC STRONG OUTLOOK. MATT BLOXHAM JOINS US NOW. ONCE AGAIN IT DOES NOT SEEM TO MATTER WHAT THESE COMPANIES ARE TELLING US. WE ARE SEEING THIS ROTATION BETWEEN SEMIS AND HYPERSCALERS.

WHAT IS THE REASON BEHIND THIS ROTATION THAT'S HAPPENING DAY AFTER DAY.

I THINK THE MARKET STILL TRYING TO FIGURE OUT THE BEST WAY TO PLAY THE AI STORY AND SEEK OUT THOSE UNDERAPPRECIATED PARTS OF THE VALUE CHAIN BUT ALSO TSMC IS CENTRAL TO ALL OF THIS BEING THE PRIMARY PROVIDER OF CHIPS TO THE LIKES OF NVIDIA. THEN YOU WILL SEE WHAT WE ARE SEEING IN THE NUMBERS TODAY RAISING THEIR ANNUAL GROWTH GUIDANCE. THE MARKET WAS LOOKING FOR ABOUT 35, 30 6%. IT SHOWS YOU THE MARKET TRYING TO ADJUST TO HOW THOSE BIG CAPEX PLANS BY THE HYPERSCALERS, HOW THAT FLOWS THROUGH THE VALUE CHAIN.

TODAY WE HEARD OPTIMISM FROM TSMC ABOUT THE DURABILITY OF THAT DEMAND OVER THE NEXT TWO OR THREE YEARS POINTING TO SUSTAINED HIGH CAP ACTS AS THEY TRY TO CATCH UP ON THE CAPACITY THEY NEED TO PROVIDE TO DELIVER AGAINST THAT DEMAND. VONNIE: FORECASTING 2026 SALES TO GO BY -- TO GROW. ALL THE KEY METRICS BEAT. IT WILL UP ITS CASH DIVIDEND. IS THERE ANY CRACK IN THIS STORY? MATTHEW: I THINK RIGHT NOW NO BUT I THINK IF THERE IS IT REMAINS THIS KIND OF THEME AROUND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF ENTERPRISE DEMAND.

A LOT OF PEOPLE FOCUSED ON THIS CONCEPT OF TOKEN MAXING. THE BUILDING BLOCKS OF AI CONSUMPTION AND A LOT OF ENTERPRISES REALIZING THEY ARE BURNING THROUGH THEIR BUDGETS HAVING TO FIGURE OUT DO I CONTINUE TO SPEND MORE OR DO WE MANAGE HOW WE INTERACT WITH THE AI PLATFORMS. AND IF IT'S THE LATTER THAT PUTS A BREAK IN THE REVENUE GROWTH WE'VE SEEN AND THAT MAY TAKE THE SHINE OFF OF SOME OF THESE SPENDING PLANS. IF CORPORATE'S TRY TO WEAVE THEIR WAY THROUGH THIS IN A CAUTIOUS BUDGETARY WAY THAT COULD SLOW THE PACE AT WHICH THE CAPACITY EXPANSION HAPPENS ENOUGH TO FURTHER OUTLINE MUTED EXPECTATIONS FOR GROWTH ACROSS THIS STARTING WITH THE HYPERSCALERS AND REACHING DOWN TO THE CHIP PROVIDERS.

DOESN'T MAKE SENSE THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE AI TRADE? ISN'T IT JUST ONE TRADE. IF AI IS TAKING OVER THAN IT'S GOOD FOR ALL OF THESE COMPANIES NO MATTER WHERE THEY ARE IN THE CHAIN? MATTHEW: TO A DEGREE. BUT WHAT WE'VE SEEN IS INVESTORS RUSHING IN, THAT TRADE GETS OVERCOOKED IF YOU'D LIKE. I THINK IF AI DEMAND CONTINUES, EVERY PART OF THE VALUE CHAIN SHOULD BENEFIT BUT THE QUESTION IS TO WHAT EXTENT IS THE MARKET ALREADY APPRECIATING THAT OR PERHAPS OVER APPRECIATING THAT.

THAT'S WHAT YOU'RE KIND OF SEEING RIGHT NOW IS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHERE THE VALUE, WHAT THE VALUE OPPORTUNITY IS AND WHERE THEY NEED TO ROTATE OUT OF TO CONTINUE TO DELIVER FOR THEIR INVESTORS. VONNIE: NETFLIX REPORTING EARNINGS AFTER THE CLOSE. I'M CURIOUS ABOUT ENGAGEMENT. HAS IT SEEN A FLOOR FOR ENGAGEMENT? MATTHEW: IT IS THE BIG QUESTION. I THINK PEOPLE ARE HOPING THAT THE ANSWER, THAT THE ENGAGEMENT FIGURES IS GOING TO BE HUGELY FOCUS IN THE MARKET.

THEY HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT DIFFERENT STRATEGY INCLUDING, IN BROADENING THEIR OWN CONTENT. NETFLIX WANTS A DISRUPTER AND OTHER PLATFORMS ARE STARTING TO DISRUPT NETFLIX. AND HOW DO THEY RESPOND TO THAT. ENGAGEMENT FIGURES WILL BE VERY CLOSELY WATCHED. A REAL KEY METRIC THAT PEOPLE LATCH ON TO IN TERMS OF WHERE THE STOCK GOES FROM

原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。