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SHERY: THIS IS "THE ASIAN TRADE." ASIA SET FOR A CHOPPY START AFTER SOFTER THAN EXPECTED U.S. INFLATION FIGURES THROUGH WALL STREET HIGHER DESPITE A ROUTE IN CHIP STOCKS. OIL PRICE FALLOUT FROM THE WAR BOLSTERING THAT'S THE FED HAS ROOM TO DELAY HIKES. THE BANK OF KOREA EXPECTED TO RAISE RATES TODAY. THE KEY QUESTION IS HOW FAST, HOW FAR AND HOW LONG THE NEW TIGHTENING CYCLE WILL RUN. WE ARE LIVE AT THE ASPEN SECURITY FORUM, SPEAKING WITH EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR AND U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE JAMIESON GREER. HAIDI: TAKE A LOOK AT THE SET OF RETRADING ACROSS ASIA. LOTS OF CROSSCURRENTS WHEN IT COMES TO WHAT INVESTORS ARE CONTENDING WITH. KOREA IS FRONT AND CENTER, NOT JUST THE BOK. WE EXPECT TO BE OK TO RAISE RATES ON HIGHER INFLATION OUTLOOK, THE GROWTH OUTLOOK. IT IS A WIDE EXPECTATION WHEN IT COMES TO THE POLICY RATE. ALL 25 SURVEYED BY US OF BLOOMBERG EXPECTING 2.75% RATE BY THE END OF THURSDAY. THERE'S ALSO INCREASING CONCERNS WHEN IT COMES TO THE SWINGS IN VOLATILITY WHEN IT COMES TO KOREAN MARKETS. EVEN THE PRESIDENT OF SOUTH KOREA SAYING THE STOCK MARKET IS QUITE UNSTABLE. WE ARE HEARING REPORTS IS A GATHERING AND DISCUSSIONS TAKING PLACE WHEN IT COMES TO VARIOUS GOVERNMENT ENTITIES AND REGULATORS ON THIS ISSUE OF LEVERAGED ETF'S. WATCHING THAT CLOSELY. PRETTY CHOPPY START IS THE PICTURE AS WE LOOK AT A PRETTY MIXED OPEN. THIS IS THE LAST TRADE WHEN IT COMES TO NIKKEI FUTURES, MODESTLY TO THE UPSIDE. SOUTH KOREAN FUTURES DOWN BY 4.5%. DOLLAR-YEN AT 162 LEVEL. WATCHING THE WON DEPENDING ON WHAT WE SEE OUT OF THE BANK OF KOREA. THE U.S. LAUNCHING FRESH STRIKES ON IRAN. THE PERIL IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND THE COMPLICATIONS OF OIL VESSELS TRAVERSING THE AREA IS REALLY CONTINUING TO ESCALATE. THE INTERIM PEACE DEAL SIGNED, THE AGO ALL BUT COLLAPSING. WE HAVE PERHAPS SOME SIGN OF POSITIVITY. PRESIDENT TRUMP SANK IRAN HAS RELEASED A U.S. CITIZEN. HE PRAISED THAT AS A GOODWILL GESTURE IN A TRUTH SOCIAL POST ABOUT THIS NEWLY RELEASED CITIZEN. WE ARE WATCHING THAT CLOSELY. OIL, BRENT CRUDE AT .3% HIGHER. CLIMBING FOR THE FOURTH DAY. ALL THIS FEEDING INTO THE INFLATION PICTURE. THAT SOFTER THAN EXPECTED U.S. INFLATION REPORT. ANOTHER READING STRENGTHENING THE CASE FOR THE FED TO HOLD. FEDERAL RESERVE AND ECONOMY REPORTER ENDA CURRAN JOINS US NOW WITH MORE. WE HAVE A COUPLE OF DATA POINTS THAT SUGGEST THE FED SHOULD BE COMFORTABLE WHERE IT IS AT. DOES THAT PUSH THE EXPECTATIONS BEYOND THE END OF THE YEAR NOW?

ENDA: IT CERTAINLY WAS A GOOD WEEK ON THE INFLATION FRONT. WE HAD PRODUCER PRICES COMING IN TODAY SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED. A LOT OF IT WAS BECAUSE THE ENERGY STORY. THAT FEEDS THROUGH TO THE LOGISTICS AND AIRLINE FUEL COSTS AND THE REST OF IT. IT WAS MORE BROAD-BASED. FOOD COSTS ARE COMING DOWN. THAT FEEDS INTO THE FED'S PREFERRED INFLATION GAUGE, SUGGESTING WITH CONSUMER DATA AND INFLATION DATA THIS WEEK IT DOES TAKE PRESSURE OFF THE FED. IT TAKES PRESSURE OFF THEM FOR THE JULY MEETING. WE HAD CHAIRMAN WARSH SPEAKING AGAIN TODAY. HE MADE THE POINT THAT YES, THE AI BOOM IS REAL AND PROBABLY NEAR TERM AND IMPACT ON PRICES. HE SAID THAT DOES NOT NECESSARILY EQUATE TO BROAD-BASED OR PERSISTENT INFLATION, HANDING A WILLINGNESS TO LOOK FOR WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THE AI BOOM. THE NUMBERS THIS WEEK DO NOT ADD UP TO THE FED MOVING IN JULY. I THINK THINGS WILL GET MORE COMPLICATED IN SEPTEMBER AND OCTOBER WHEN WE START TO GET A NEW ROUND OF INFLATION DATA. THAT WILL BE CRITICAL HEADING INTO YEAR END. HAIDI: VERY DANGEROUS FOR MARKETS TO FIXATE ON THE IDEA OF TRANSITORY ENERGY INFLATION, PARTICULARLY WHEN WE SEE EVERY ESCALATION OF THE WAR WITH IRAN -- A RE-ESCALATION OF THE WAR IN IRAN. MARK: WE HAVE NOT REALLY CHANGED A GREAT DEAL. TRADERS ARE SKEWED TOWARDS THE IDEA THE FEDERAL RESERVE WILL RAISE INTEREST RATES, AT LEAST ONCE IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS. THAT IS NOT TOO SURPRISING. IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT THE FACT THAT WTI IS BACKGROUND THE $80 MARK. IF YOU LOOK AT THE OTHER PRODUCTS, THINGS LIKE THE DIESEL FUEL, JET FUEL, THOSE ARE MUCH HIGHER. THERE ARE SHORTAGES UP IN THE OTHER OIL STOCKS AS WELL, WHICH HIT THE DIRECT ECONOMY. PEOPLE ARE RELUCTANT TO PRICE OUT THE IDEA THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE CAN'T INCREASE INTEREST RATES BECAUSE WHAT'S HAPPENING ACROSS THE ENERGY SECTOR. IF YOU ARE IN A POSITION OF KEVIN WARSH, HE WILL PROBABLY TELL THE COMMITTEE THEY SHOULD TAKE MORE TIME. THEY SHOULD DELIBERATE FURTHER AND NOT RUSH TO ANY DECISIONS. IT IS A SPLIT FOMC. WE HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR THERE HAVE BEEN PEOPLE VOTING IN FAVOR FOR CHANGES MUCH EARLIER UNDER CHAIRMAN POWELL. IT WILL BE A VERY HOT MEETING WHEN THEY COME TOGETHER AND MARKETS WILL BE LOOKING FOR ANY SPLIT BETWEEN THE FOMC PEOPLE. EVEN IF RATES ARE HELD AT THE SAME LEVEL. LOOKING AHEAD, TRADERS ARE NOT GOING TO PUSH YIELDS DOWN VERY FAR WHEN THEY CAN SEE WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE REAL WORLD. THEY CAN SEE THE IRAN CONFLICT IS GOING ON. THERE IS PLENTY TO SEE THE CHANCES ARE THAT BASE INFLATION WAS A RELATIVELY HIGH. PEOPLE LIKELY TO BE DEFENSIVE IN TERMS OF BONDS AND CURRENCIES AT LEAST. SHERY: WHEN IT CAME TO CHAIRMAN WARSH, HE DOES NOT NECESSARILY SEE THESE ONE TIME PRICE HIKES AROUND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS INFLATIONARY. YET WHEN IT COMES TO THE TECH SECTOR ITSELF, THE VOLATILITY HAS BEEN IMMENSE. MARK: I THINK HE'S BEING A LITTLE DISINGENUOUS. THE BUILDUP OF DATA CENTERS, THE HUGE AMOUNTS OF MONEY THE HYPERSCALERS ARE SPENDING RIGHT NOW ON THE BUILDUP OF CAPACITY TO PRODUCE AI PRODUCTS IS CLEARLY INFLATIONARY IN THE SHORT-TERM. THERE ARE SO MANY REPORTS ABOUT IT. BLOOMBERG HAS WRITTEN EXTENSIVELY. INVESTORS KNOW IT'S PUSHING UP PRICES IN THE NEAR TERM. FURTHER DOWN THE ROAD, JOB DESTRUCTION BECAUSE OF AI IS A MUCH MORE SERIOUS PROBLEM FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY AND GLOBAL ECONOMY. JOBS WILL BE LOST BECAUSE OF AI REPLACING THEM. THAT'S A MEDIUM TO LONGER TERM PICTURE AND PROBABLY WHY KEVIN WARSH IS TRYING TO TREAD CAREFULLY BETWEEN THE NOW AND THE LATER SCENARIOS. AS FAR AS INVESTORS ARE CONCERNED, THEY ARE INTERESTED WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS RATHER THAN FURTHER DOWN THE TRACK. THAT IS WHY YOU ARE SEEING THE VOLATILITY IN THE BIG NAMES IN THE TECH SECTOR. THAT'S ALREADY BEGINNING TO UNWIND TODAY. WE HAD AN INTERESTING DAY IN THE COSBY. HE REBOUND LATE IN THE SESSION. IT WILL BE A CHOPPY DAY. TSMC EARNINGS AS WELL. THERE'S A HUGE AMOUNT GOING ON IN THE BIG AMERICAN NAMES TO RELEASE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WELL. THE EARNINGS SEASON IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR THE EQUITY MARKET AND THE SHORT-TERM VOLATILITY. ONCE WE GET THROUGH IT, WE MIGHT WELL LOOK BACK AND SAY ACTUALLY THESE COMPANIES ARE STILL MAKING HUGE PROFITS. THAT GIVES OPTIMISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS AHEAD IN THE EQUITY MARKETS. SHERY: WHAT IS YOUR TAKE ON THE U.S. ECONOMY SINCE WE ALSO GOT THE BEIGE BOOK?

HOW ARE AMERICANS FEELING RIGHT NOW?ENDA: THE ECONOMY IS DOING FINE IN TERMS OF AGGREGATE DATA. INTERESTING FOR POLICYMAKERS THIS WEEK CONCLUDING -- INCLUDING GOVERNOR WALLER. THEY ARE MAKING THE POINT THAT THEY HAVE FLIPPED FROM WORRYING ABOUT THE JOBS MARKET. THE JOBS MARKET IS FINE. YOU CAN FIND A JOB. UNEMPLOYMENT IS LOW. WE HAVE NOT SEEN THE FLOW THROUGH THE AI DIFFUSION. YOU MIGHT BE HAPPENING IN SECTORS LIKE FINANCE BUT NOT BROADLY SPEAKING. THE STORY IS ALL ABOUT INFLATION. IT IS A CONFUSING STORY. IT IS WHIPLASH. WHEN THE IRAN PEACE DEAL WAS SIGNED, IT LOOKED LIKE MORE RELIEF IN THE MONTHS AHEAD WITH THE ENERGY STORY ALLOWING POLICY MAKERS TO DRILL INTO WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE AI INFLATION STORY, TARIFFS OFF THE BOILED. HE LOOKED LIKE IT COULD BE EASING HEADING INTO THE BACK END OF THE YEAR. THEN WE ARE RIGHT BACK TO WHERE WE STARTED. THE CONFLICT IS RAGING AGAIN WITH IRAN AND THAT WILL HAVE CONSEQUENCES ON OIL, WITH DIESEL COSTS. THAT WILL HAVE SOME FLOW-THROUGH. THE AI STORY HAS NOT GONE AWAY EVEN THOUGH CHAIRMAN WARSH IS SAYING IN THE NEAR TERM YOU CAN LOOK THROUGH THAT. IT IS REAL ON THE GROUND TRYING TO BUY RAM OR MEMORY OR A LAPTOP. IT'S STILL AN ISSUE AND A TALKING POINT AMONG COMPANIES. THEY SAY THE COSTS ARE H