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美国对伊朗发动新一轮打击,霍尔木兹海峡局势紧张

US Launches Fresh Strikes on Iran | Horizons Middle East & Africa 7/16/2026

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美国对伊朗的军事打击直接影响霍尔木兹海峡这一全球关键能源通道,油价波动和供应链风险是宏观交易员必须关注的核心变量。建议密切跟踪后续冲突升级或缓和信号,以及各国应对措施对能源市场的影响。

>> THIS IS HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST AND AFRICA. STRIKES INTENSIFY. THE U.S. LAUNCHES FRESH ATTACKS ON IRAN AS TENSIONS MOUNT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. TRUMP VOWS TO CONTINUE UNTIL TEHRAN STOPS TARGETING COMMERCIAL SHIPPING. SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS EXTEND THEIR SELLOFF. ATTENTION TURNS TO TSIM SELLS FOR THE NEXT SIGNAL. AND WE TURN TO MOHAMMED ALABBAR ON HIS $20 BILLION PLAN TO HELP REBUILD SYRIA. I’M JENNIFER IN JO HANS BURKE AND BEFORE WE GET TO SOME OF THOSE STORIES, QUITE A BIT WE ARE FOLLOWING. LET’S GET YOU A CHECK ON YOUR MARKETS RIGHT NOW. IF YOU LOOK AT U.S. EQUITY FUTURES, THEY’RE MARGINALLY HIGHER ON THE DAY AFTER WE SAW A LARGELY POSITIVE SESSION ON WALL STREET FOR WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE SPEAKING, THOUGH, QUIET A BIRTH AS WE PARSE THROUGH COMPANY STATEMENTS AND EARNINGS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT STILL QUITE A BIT TO GO. THE S&P CLOSED IN THE GREEN FOR A SECOND STRAIGHT DAY ON WEDNESDAY. STILL A LOT TO WATCH OUT FOR BUT STILL CHIP STOCKS UNDER PRESSURE IN ASIA. MORE ON THAT IN A BIT. FOR MORE INSIGHT INTO WHERE WE’RE SEEING SOME OF THE PRICE ACTION IN ASIA BUT ASIA PACIFIC INDEX DOWN JUST OVER 1% AS YOU CAN SEE THERE ON THE BOARD. QUITE A BIT ON THE GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET, ESPECIALLY IN THE U.S. HAD BEEN OVERSHADOWED BY CONTINUAL EARNINGS AND A SOFTER THAN EXPECTED INFLATION PRINT IN THE U.S. THAT WE GOT ON WEDNESDAY AND POTENTIALLY HOW INVESTORS SEE THAT FEEDING THROUGH INTO THE FED’S PREFERRED INFLATION GAUGE. THAT IS P.C.E. COMING LATER THIS WEEK. TRADERS ARE NOW DIALING BACK ON FED RATE HIKES LATER THIS YEAR AND FINALLY, BRENT CRUDE HAS BEEN WAVERING OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE SESSION. RIGHT NOW DOWN ABOUT .2% TO TRADE BELOW $85 A BARREL BUT STILL, OF COURSE, GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS IN THE MIDDLE EAST A FACTOR AND PERHAPS WE’RE SEEING SOME OF THE DEMAND STORY PLAYING INTO THE PRICE ACTION THERE. BUT LET’S LOOK AT MARKET IN ASIA. WINWINNIE IS WITH US FOR MORE. WINNIE: THE KOSPI DOWN HERE MORE THAN 6% EARLIER, TRIGGERING A SIDE CAR. WE HAVE SK HEADLINICS AND SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS SO THESE CHIP MAKERS COMING LOWER AFTER U.S. PIERCE ALSO FALLING YESTERDAY. SK HYNIX’S ADR’S YESTERDAY ALSO FELL BY ABOUT 9% SO WE’RE SEEING THAT WEAKNESS COMING THROUGH. BANK OF KOREA RAISING RATES FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MORE THAN THREE YEARS AND EVEN INDICATING FURTHER HIKES DOWN THE ROAD TO TAME INFLATION THAT HAS BEEN DRINK BY THE A.I. TRADE. WE ARE SEEING THAT SUPPORTING THE SOUTH KOREAN WON BY 0.1%. WEIGHING ON THE EXPECTTIES IS ALSO FOR SOUTH KOREA TO ANNOUNCE MEASURES ON THESE LERCHED E.T E.T.F.’S THAT HAVE BEEN FUELING VOLUME TYTY IN THE -- VOLATILITY IN THE STOCK MARKET. 30 DAY VOLATILITY ON THE KOSPI, AT AN HISTORICAL HIGH. THESE MEASURES POTENTIALLY INCLUDE INCREASING THE MINIMUM DEPOSIT FOR INVESTING IN THESE PRODUCTS AS WELL AS EXPANDING THE REBALANCING PERIOD THROUGHOUT THE SESSION VERSUS HOW RIGHT NOW IT IS JUST AT THE END OF THE DAY. BACK TO YOU. JENNIFER: WINNIE, THANKS. BACK TO OUR TOP STORY. BRENT CRUDE HOWEVERRING AROUND $85 A BARREL AFTER THE U.S. CARRIED OUT ANOTHER ROUND OF ATTACKS ON IRAN IN A BID TO SECURE SHIPPING THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS PLEDGED TO INTENSIFY BOMBARDMENT AND CLAIMS IRAN IS SEEKING MORE TALKS AFTER THE UNITED STATES DEGRADED ITS MISSILE AND DRONE CAPABILITIES. PRESIDENT TRUMP: THEY WANT TO SETTLE SO BADLY. THEY DON’T LIKE WHAT WE’RE DOING. WE’LL FIND OUT WHETHER OR NOT WE SETTLE WITH THEM OR JUST FINISH IT OFF. JENNIFER: WE’RE JOINED BY OUR EXECUTIVE EDITOR FOR THE MIDDLE EAST, NORTH AFTERAND RUSSIA. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THESE LATEST STRIKES AND HOW ARE THEY FITTING INTO THE OVERALL CONFLICT AT THIS JUNCTURE?

>> GOOD MORNING, JENNIFER. FROM WHAT WE’VE SEEN SO FAR IT’S FITTING THE PLAY BOOK WE’VE SEEN OVER THE LAST WEEK AND ARGUABLY BEFORE THAT. BOTH SIDES ARE TRYING TO SEND A SIGNAL HERE AND I THINK THEY’RE TRYING HARD NOT TO ESCALATE. EVEN THOUGH THAT SOUND SLIGHTLY ODD IN THE FACE OF SEVERAL DOZEN ATTACKS ON EITHER SIDE BUT THE U.S. IS TARGETING SEEMS TO BE ONLY MILITARY TARGETS, AROUND PRESENTING HORMUZ OR DEGRADE IRAN’S ABILITY TO THREATEN SHIPPING AND ON IRAN’S SIDE AIMED AT U.S. MILITARY ASSET AROUND THE GULF. JORDAN, BAHRAIN, EITHER, WHEN THAT TARGET LIST EXPANDS TO THINGS LIKE MAJOR CITIES, INFRASTRUCTURE, THAT SORT OF THING, THAT’S WHAT I THINK WE READ INTO IT THAT THERE IS A MAJOR ESCALATION GOING ON AND OBVIOUSLY THAT RAISES THE STAKES ALTOGETHER. JENNIFER: WHICH POSES THE QUESTION WHAT ARE THE RISKS IF WE ARE CONTINUING TO SEE A NUMBER OF THESE DIVERGING HEADLINES IN THE -- AND THE RHETORIC FROM BOTH SIDES?

STUART: THAT’S AN EXTREMELY GOOD QUESTION. IT IS VERY EASY IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE LOTS OF MISSILES AND DRONES ARE FLYING OVER AT RAPID PACE OVER VAST SWATHS OF THE RECENTLY THAT ONE OF THOSE GOES ASTRAY AND DOES SOME HORRIFIC DAMAGE TO SOMETHING THAT WAS UNINTEND AND WOULD THAT THEN FORCES THE OTHER SIDE TO-ESQUE LATE TO RESPOND IN KIND AND THAT CAN GO OUT OF CONTROL VERY QUICKLY. EVIDENCED BY MARCH AND APRIL WHERE WE SAW WIDESPREAD ATTACKS ON CIVILIAN INFRASTRUCTURE. PORTS, AIRPORTS, ENERGY FACILITY, THAT KIND OF THING. THAT’S THE SITUATION WE COULD GET BACK TO UNLESS BOTH SIDES ARE CAREFUL AND TRY AND FIND WAYS OF DE-ESCALATING THE SYSTEM BUT WHEN THERE’S THAT MUCH HARDWARE FLYING AROUND IT’S VERY HARD TO CONTAIN THAT I THINK THAT IS PROBABLY THE BIGGEST CONCERN HERE. JENNIFER: WE’LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION. STUART LIVINGSTON WALLACE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. NOW, INTERNATIONAL AGENCY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR WARNS THE GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL FACE DIFFICULTIES IF THE CONFLICT THAT’S CHOKED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ISN’T RESOLVED SOON. SPEAKING TO BLOOMBERG AT THE ASPEN FORUM IN COLORADO, HE DISCUSSED THE ISSUE. >> THE MARKETS ARE NERVOUS. WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE A SOON AND LASTING SOLUTION TO THE PROBLEM AND AT THE SAME TIME MANY COUNTRIES ARE TAKING SOME MEASURES TO THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. >> TALK ABOUT THOSE MEASURES?

WE’VE SEEN THEM DRAWING FROM SUPPLIES OVER AN EMERGENCY BASIS. >> A FEW THINGS. USING THEIR ENINVENTORIES, THEIR STOCKS SUCH AS CHINA AND SOME OTHER COUNTRIES, NUMBER ONE. NUMBER TWO, WE SEE THAT THE OIL PRODUCTION INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE UNITED STATES, FROM BRAZIL OR FROM KAZAKHSTAN. NUMBER THREE, SAUDI ARABIA IS WITH THE AIR FORCE AS WELL AS THE EMIRATES TO BYPASSING THE STATE OF HORMUZ TO FIND OTHER WAYS THERE OUT REGION. ALL OF THEM ARE GOOD BUT NONE ARE ENDLESS SO THEREFORE I HOPE THE CRISIS WILL BE SOLVED QUICKLY AND IN A CONVINCING WAY. OTHERWISE, GLOBAL ECONOMY MAY WELL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTIES. >> I HEAR YOU USE THE WORD HOPE AND WONDER HOW OPTIMISTIC YOU ARE, INDEED HOW WORRIED YOU ARE OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS?

>> I WAS ALWAYS THOUGHT WHAT COULD HAPPEN IF ONE DAY THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS CLOSED? >> YOU’VE THOUGHT THROUGH THIS MANY TIMES? >> MANY TIMES, WE DID SOME EXERCISES AND SO ON AND IT’S ONE OF THE REASONS THAT WE RELEASED A HUGE AMOUNT OF STOCKS TO THE MARKETS IN A SEAMLESS WAY WHICH BROUGHT THE OIL PRICES DOWN. AND NOW THE PROBLEM IS ONCE IT IS CLOSED, MANY PEOPLE THINK IT MAY BE CLOSED AGAIN SO COUNTRIES ARE NOT OF ANYHOW THINKING NOT ONLY WHAT KIND OF MEASURES THEY CAN TAKE TODAY BUT HOW ARE THEY GOING TO DEAL WITH THEIR ENERGY STRATEGIES FOR TOMORROW?

>> MY UNDERSTANDING IS THEY HAVE ABOUT 25% OF RESERVES LEFT. WHAT’S THE THINKING IF YOU HAVE TO DEPLOY THOSE AGAIN?>> IT WAS HISTORIC. 400 MILLION BARRELS, EQUAL TODAY ALMOST 2.5 BARRELS FLOWING TO THE MARKETS AND THIS WAS HISTORIC. IT COULD NEVER, EVER BEEN DISTRIBUTED THAT MUCH AND IT WAS A UNANIMOUS DECISION. ALL OF OUR GOVERNMENTS AND THIS WAS ONLY 20% OF THE STOCKS WE HAVE. STILL I HAVE THE -- IN THE POCKET IF AND WHEN NEEDED OUR MEMBER COUNTRIES AIM SURE WILL BE HAPPY TO RELEASE THOSE STOCKS BUT I VERY MUCH AGAIN HOPE THAT WE WILL NOT COME TO THAT POINT. JENNIFER: THAT WAS INTERNATIONAL ENERGY EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR. STILL AHEAD, WE’LL DISCUSS THE CONTINUING MARKET FALLOUT FROM THE CONFLICT IN IRAN AND THE A.I. TRADE WITH ANGELINA LAI FROM ST. JAMES’S PLACE. THIS IS BLOOMBERG. JENNIFER: SEMICONDUCTOR STO

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