企业比特币持仓的杠杆炸弹：从永不出售到被迫抛售

For years, Strategy, formerly Micro Strategy, told the world it would never sell a single Bitcoin from its humongous stack of them. And indeed, it continued buying BTC on an almost weekly basis. Then in May 2026, it went and sold 32 BTC for around $2.5 million. Fast forward to today and over $60 billion in treasury value has simply vanished across the broader corporate Bitcoin sector. This was supposed to be permanent demand. Corporate balance sheets hoovering up supply, a clean bridge between Wall Street and crypto. But instead of building a floor under Bitcoin, these companies wired a leverage bomb straight into public markets. So today, I'm going to break down what these digital asset treasuries were actually sold as, expose the hidden mechanism that turned them into forced sellers, and lay out the doom loop that decides whether this is a wobble or a detonation. My name is Guy, and you're watching the Coin Bureau. Let's go back to the good old days of early October 2025. BTC peaked at $124,720 back on the 6th of October and Michael Sailor, Bitcoin's high priest, was the man. Then on the 10th of October, Donald Trump threatened China with massive tariffs. Markets everywhere got spooked and crypto was hit particularly hard as a whole load of leverage unwound and Bitcoin along with everything else dropped like a stone. Today, BTC is sitting around $65,600, a 47% draw down in roughly eight months, with the fear and greed index buried deep in extreme fear. And these treasury companies are leveraged proxies on that exact number. So, when Bitcoin bleeds, their leverage structure causes them to bleed even faster. Which brings us to the promise that got everyone here in the first place. The pitch was beautiful and on paper it almost made sense. Michael Sailor and what was then known as Micro Strategy pioneered it back in 2020 with three pillars. Pillar one, permanent demand. Corporate treasuries would act as a black hole for Bitcoin supply, buying coins and locking them away forever. The never sell doctrine was the whole psychological foundation. Pillar two, balance sheet absorption. Companies could issue cheap debt at near zero interest and funnel that capital into an asset returning far more. Pillar three, the Wall Street Bridge. Investors who couldn't or wouldn't hold Bitcoin directly could just buy a NASDAQ stock instead. Sailor called these firms quote the engines, the drivers, the dynamos powering the network. And it worked spectacularly because of one self- reinforcing trick. The flywheel strategy would issue stock at a premium to the value of its Bitcoin. Use the cash to buy more Bitcoin, watch its Bitcoin per share climb, which push the premium even higher, letting it issue more stock again. An infinite money machine. But that machine only spins in one direction. And to understand why it's now eating itself alive, you need to understand one key metric, MNAV. So MNAV is simply a company's market cap divided by the value of its crypto holdings. Above 1x, the stock trades at a premium to its Bitcoin, and the flywheel works. Below 1x, it trades at a discount and the entire model breaks. At its peak, Strategy traded at nearly 3.9x the value of its Bitcoin. So, investors were paying almost $4 for $1 of BTC. Metaplanet, Asia's answer to strategy, peaked at an absolutely deranged 22.5x. Investors were paying for the narrative rather than the underlying asset. And when the story is the product, the story can collapse far faster than the asset underneath it, which is exactly what happened. Now, before we get into the carnage, a quick word. The market moves fast and keeping up with both crypto and the wider macro picture is a full-time job. If that sounds daunting or you simply don't have hours a day to sit glued to a screen, we've made it a lot easier. Right here on YouTube, you can now access the new Coinbureau Club light plan. For just $10 a month, you'll get daily market updates across both crypto and trades and curated updates with only the bits that actually matter. Just tap the join button below this video to get started. Right, back to it. And this is where the flywheel starts running in reverse. Strategies MNAV has collapsed from 3.89x down to roughly 0.8X by some measures. The premium has completely inverted and the stock now trades for less than the Bitcoin it holds. And remember that double whammy structure. Bitcoin fell 47% but the stock fell harder because the premium evaporated on top of it. Strategy is down nearly 31% in a single month. MetaPlanet is down over 36% in 6 months and Semila Scientific is down roughly 40%. In a single quarter, Strategy reported a 14.46 billion unrealized loss. To put that into perspective, the company's actual revenue that quarter was just $124 million. The actual business is now just a tiny appendage stapled to a massive Bitcoin position. And that brings us to the moment in May when Strategy sold 32 BTC. Now, of course, 32 coins out of nearly 847,000 is financially meaningless. It's 0.0038% of the stack. But symbolically, it was catastrophic. Strategy said they sold to cover a preferred stock dividend, which brings us nicely to the hefty financial obligations the company is carrying, around $6.7 billion in convertible notes, plus billions in perpetual preferred stock. The annual dividend and debt service obligations come to roughly $1.7 billion a year by JP Morgan's estimate. Those are fixed and non-negotiable. These payments do not shrink when Bitcoin falls. And JP Morgan calculates that the company's cash reserve covers only just about six months or so of those obligations. The convertible notes don't help either. Their conversion price sits up around $672 a share while the stock is trading near 123. So those notes can't convert into equity. They have to be repaid in cash. Now, let's connect the dots because this is where it potentially gets awkward for strategy and by extension anyone else holding Bitcoin. Step one, Bitcoin falls and the company's net asset value drops. Step two, the stock falls even further and MNAV sinks below 1x. Step three, with the stock at a discount, issuing new shares to buy BTC destroys value instead of creating it. In other words, the flywheel stops spinning. Step four, those fixed dividends still come due. So, the company then has two options. Dilute shareholders into the ground or sell Bitcoin. Step five, selling Bitcoin into a thin market pushes the price down further, which drops the NAV again, which feeds straight back into step one. Price down, NAV down, more selling. And this isn't theoretical. Marathon already did it, dumping over 15,000 BTC in March just to repurchase its own debt. Smaller players like Fold and Secons have already begun unwinding, selling large portions of their holdings to cover debt obligations, a sign the mechanism has already fired for the weakest hands in the space. That said, however, not everyone agrees that this ends in disaster. There is, believe it or not, still a bullcase here. First, benchmarks Mark Palmer argues the shift towards perpetual preferred stock is actually a strength because perpetual preferred has no maturity date. It's permanent capital which reduces refinancing risk. Second, Bitwise Andre Drago points out that strategy's recent debt buyback removed a major uncertainty around its 2028 repayment wall. Third, TD Cowan still has a buy rating with a $400 price target, arguing the death spiral narrative is wildly premature. And fourth, the debt is longdated. There's no margin call cliff next week, and the company still has over 25 billion in authorized stock issuance capacity in reserve. So, this really could go either way. Strategy is by far the most successful corporate Bitcoin holder on Earth, sitting on a $55 billion reserve. And it is structurally a forced seller the moment Bitcoin stays low enough for long enough. The very things that made Strategy and its imitators so attractive on the way up, the leverage, the premium, the flyw