Michael Saylor 与比特币下跌：恐惧与机会并存

When we did stretch, you know, I designed all these with AI, you know, I couldn't have done it myself. And I promise not to sell the Bitcoin. We have a PhD in hodling. Attention crypto holders. If you hold Bitcoin, you need to know there are three big reasons why Bitcoin is falling today, hitting $62,000. The Fed, the war, and Michael Sailor. So much is happening to crypto behind the scenes. Most people have no idea what's actually happening in this space. I do. Give me five minutes and I'll explain everything to you. First of all, there is extreme fear in the market today as half of all Bitcoin is now underwater. 10.5 million Bitcoin or over 50% of Bitcoin supply is now held at a loss. This is 30% more people at a loss than just a month ago. And Bitcoin has been in extreme fear or fear for pretty much this whole year. Actually, since October of last year. Three big reasons for this. Number one, President Trump is contradicting his signed memorandum of understanding with Iran. Seems like Trump keeps going back and forth. >> No, it's not final. It's a memorandum of understanding. And if I don't like it, we'll go back to shooting at them, dropping bombs on their head. >> So, the market is pricing this in very negatively. I actually have a counter opinion. I do actually think Trump will make major concessions to end the war so that the economy is more stable by the November midterms. So, I think this is overstated. Number two, after Kevin Worsh's first FOMC meeting the other day, >> this committee will deliver price stability. >> While once thought Kevin Worsh would be dovish for rate cuts, the market is now calling him a hawk or as Dr. Edard Denny describes a hawk in Dove's clothing. He thinks Kevin Worsh is not going to be good for rate cuts. Hawk in Dove's clothing, writing, "We thought he was a dove who favored lowering the federal funds rate. Instead, he hammered home a strict orthodox message on inflation with a strong commitment to price stability." Ed joins us now for more. Ed, great to see you. Thank you for being here. >> So, is this more of an Allen Greens fan rather than say an Alen Burns?

>> It's very Greenspan. I mean, it's, you know, not a lot of information, uh, a lot of ambiguity and, uh, you know, occasionally some surprises. He started right off the bat with a surprise. He, you know, it's kind of like he had an interview with President Trump and uh yesed him, told him everything that that he wanted. Yes, we're going to lower interest rates. Yes, AI is creating productivity. Then as soon as he got the job, it's like the old wars concerned about uh price stability. He mentioned price stability over and over again. And not only that, but he pretty much committed to 2%. He uh he he didn't finagle that too much at all. I think Kevin Worsh is going to present some bold ideas over the next few FOMC meetings. And I don't think most people realize he's going to be a vastly different Fed chair than his previous successors. So, I actually think Tom Lee made a great point today. The market got the Fed wrong. Investors are treating Kevin Worsh's first Fed meeting like a hawkish pivot. But actually, he is dovish. And Tom Lee takes the time to explain why. >> You tell our producers investors overreacted to the Fed meeting. It seems to be the consensus, the growing consensus that that was what happened yesterday. Why do you think that?

>> Um, hi Scott. Um, Kevin Worsh has a very different communication style and he he plans to kind of modernize how the Fed monitors data. So I think the markets took the removal of that forward guidance and even looking at those dot plots as a hawkish pivot. But I think instead I think it's a Kevin Warset saying listen I'm going to be using modern data real time alternative data to understand what's going on with inflation and at this moment we have no conviction. So to me I think it's actually a very markets friendly view. Um, I think the the homework now is for investors to understand that if data changes, those dots are going to move pretty quickly. So, I I think overall it's actually quite a dovish meeting. And then number three, perhaps Bitcoin's biggest boogeyman at the moment is Michael Sailor and Strategy and Stretch STRC, which is supposed to remain at $100, hit an all-time low today of 82. Sailor is either going to be proven a fool or a legend. Many people on crypto Twitter calling Michael Sailor foolish today as a clip of him is going around talking about how he built his stretch product with AI just by arguing a chat GBT. >> When we did stretch, you know, I designed all these with AI. You know, I couldn't have done it myself. I I literally sat and I used artificial intelligence and I and I went back and forth with the AI for a few hours. >> So you were just on chat GPT just like the rest of us figuring out how to design these different offerings >> and arguing with it and saying can I do this, can I do that?

And at some point I said well I want a monthly preferred and I want it to be stable at 100. It says well you can do this and this and this. I said has anybody ever done this?

And it say and it scans for 10 minutes says no one in the history of the world has ever done this but it's totally legal and it's totally reasonable to do it. It's just no one ever had a reason to do it. >> And beyond that old clips of Sailor continue to be dredged up hurting his credibility and making people just unsure about him and his company. >> And I promise not to sell the Bitcoin. And and so we're in the business of not selling Bitcoin. We got very good at it. We have a PhD in hodling. You know, >> we've talked about the potential sailor problem in our last two videos. So, make sure you check either of these out. There is more to the story once you understand what Sailor is doing. All of this is just compounding into extreme fear. This is interesting. 14 years of Bitcoin price action, four extreme fear prints, and one is happening right now. You know what they say when extreme fear is in markets?

Panic sell. Of course, that's not something we're recommending. The altcoin daily audience is smarter than the average crypto investor. We keep you informed on a daily basis. And I just have to tell you again, this is what bottoms look like. 243 days of fear, 243 days of bearish headlines, 243 days of people calling for lower prices. every extra day down only increases the odds of a violent reversal higher. Not that Bitcoin couldn't go down a little bit lower. Only four times since 2019 has this signal appeared and you are living through the fourth one right now. So understand this chart. Percent supply in profit. We know that half of all Bitcoin is underwater right now. We've seen this three times before. And the first three occurrences, these were not close to the bottom, nor approximately the bottom, nor somewhere near the bottom. They were the exact bottom to the day. While the crowd was capitulating, while the weak hands were breaking, while fear dominated every timeline, the most precise bottom indicator in Bitcoin's entire history just fired. This metric has never been wrong. Not once in seven years. The crowd is panicking yet the data is telling a completely different story. Not that we couldn't go down a little bit lower sometime this year. But the asymmetric upside going forward is what smart investors are thinking about. Smart investors, including some of the biggest financial institutions, know that this extreme fear is only temporary and they're preparing for what comes next. Morgan Stanley, Ethereum and Salana ETFs are nearing launch. The fee on each of these is going to be 14 basis points, making them the cheapest in the US and the world. Morgan Stanley doesn't release a lot of products like this. They really have to be believers in Bitcoin and now Ethereum and Salana to do this. They really have to be believers that America is going to be pro- crypto in the future. They know the Clarity Act is coming. As Kirsten S