韩国加倍押注AI芯片，拟十年投资1.3万亿美元

HASLINDA: LIVE FROM SINGAPORE, THIS IS INSIGHT WHERE WE DIVE DEEPER INTO THE STORIES THAT MATTER WITH CRUCIAL CONTEXT AND SHARP ANALYSIS. THE U.S. AND IRAN AGREE TO HOLD TALKS AHEAD OF PEACE TALKS RESUMING THIS WEEK. THE DE-ESCALATION FOLLOWING DAYS OF TIT-FOR-TAT TRUCKS THAT THREATEN TO AN ALREADY FRAGILE TRUCE. SIMPSON GROUP AND ASK A GROUP ARE PREPARING TO UNVEIL CHIP INVESTMENTS WORTH A REPORTED $1.3 TRILLION OVER 10 YEARS. THE MASSIVE DEAL SUPPORTING SOUTH KOREA'S INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY. DAN HEYLER WILL BREAK DOWN THE GLOBAL CHIP ROADMAP. WHILE TAIWAN AND KOREA'S MARKET SURGE GAINS, INDIA AND HONG KONG ARE LOSING DOMINANCE WITH TOP FIRMS TAKING A SMALLER SHARE AS THEY LAG IN THE GLOBAL AI RACE. THE TOP STORY TODAY -- OF THE U.S. AND IRAN AGREEING TO STOP ATTACKING EACH OTHER AFTER DAYS OF TIT-FOR-TAT STRIKES THAT TESTED A FRAGILE TRUCE. A U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS BLOOMBERG THAT BOTH SIDES WILL STAND DOWN FOR NOW. THE OFFICIAL ALSO SAYS U.S.-IRAN TALK SET TO RESUME THIS WEEK IN DOHA WILL FOCUS ON ALL ASPECTS OF THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING REACHED EARLIER THIS MONTH. FOR MORE, LET'S BRING IN OUR BLOOMBERG EDITOR. WHAT DO WE KNOW ABOUT THE LATEST AGREEMENT AND WHAT ARE THE CHANCES OF IT HOLDING?

JON: AS YOU MENTIONED, WE SPOKE TO A U.S. OFFICIAL WHO SAID THE TWO SIDES HAVE AGREED TO HALT THE BACK-AND-FORTH ATTACKS THAT HAVE GONE ON FOR THE PAST FOUR DAYS TO LET THE TALKS FOR THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING GO FORWARD NEXT WEEK. THEY WANT -- THE U.S. WANTS TO SEE SHIPPING RETURN TO NORMAL WITHIN THE GULF AND TRY TO GET BACK TO LEVELS OF WHERE IT HAD BEEN BEFORE THESE ATTACKS BEGAN. BEFORE THE ATTACKS BEGAN, WE WERE ABOUT 70 TRANSITS THROUGH THE STRAIT THAT WAS PRETTY HIGH FOR POSTWAR BUT STILL WELL BELOW THE 100 35 AVERAGE BEFORE THE WAR. WHETHER THIS AGREEMENT HOLDS REALLY DEPENDS ON THE POLITICAL WILL OF THE TWO COUNTRIES, THE DOMESTIC POLITICS THAT ARE AT PLAY, AND THE ACRIMONY, THE DISTRUST IS THERE. THINGS CAN SPIRAL OUT OF CONTROL QUICKLY. WE HAVE SEEN BEFORE THERE HAVE BEEN PICKUPS, ATTACKS, VARIOUS OBSTACLES IN THE CEASE-FIRE BUT THE TWO PARTIES HAVE GONE FORWARD. SO, WE ARE AT A TIME NOW WHERE THERE IS SOME AGREEMENT. THE TALKS FOR THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING ARE SUPPOSED TO GO ONE NEXT WEEK AND THE MARKETS ARE INTERPRETING THIS FOR THE MOST PART AS A POSITIVE BUT THERE IS STILL A LOT OF CAUTION ON THE SHIPPING SIDE. HASLINDA: I GUESS THE QUESTION IS HOW CLEAR ARE WE ON THE AGENDA?

WHAT IS IN STORE FOR THE TALKS? IS IT ABOUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, NUCLEAR, REGIONAL STABILITY -- ALL OF THE ABOVE PERHAPS? JON: ALL OF THE ABOVE AND PROBABLY A FEW THINGS THAT HAVE NOT MADE IT INTO THE CONSIDERATION. THE MAIN THING IT LOOKS LIKE IS GOING TO BE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND WHETHER I RAN CAN ATTACH SOME FEES FOR TRANSIT. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN A CONCERN FOR THE U.S.. IRAN SAID IT IS WORKING WITH OMAN TO SEE IF THERE WOULD BE SOME SORT OF MANAGEMENT AND THIS COULD INVOLVE SOME SORT OF FEES FOR TRANSIT. IT ALSO DEPENDS ON HOW TO INTERPRET THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING WHERE THE LANGUAGE IS REALLY VAGUE -- REALLY VAGUE WHEN IT COMES TO THIS ABOUT HOW SHIPS CAN GO TRUE -- THROUGH. WE ALSO HAVE THE NUCLEAR ISSUE. THIS IS THE KEY ISSUE FOR THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS, TRYING TO END IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM. REALLY DIFFICULT DISCUSSION DURING THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION. IT TOOK NEARLY TWO YEARS TO NEGOTIATE A DEAL. WE HAVE A TIMEFRAME OF 60 DAYS WHICH HAS ALREADY STARTED AND WE DON'T SEE A LOT OF PROGRESS SO FAR ON THE NUCLEAR ISSUE. A LOT TO GET DONE BUT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IN THE NUCLEAR ISSUE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO -- THE TWO KEY THINGS MOVING FORWARD THIS WEEK. HASLINDA: WE HAVE SEEN A SERIES OF ATTACKS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. WHAT IS BEHIND THAT, WHO IS BEHIND THAT AND HOW MUCH DOES IT HAVE TO DO WITH NONSTATE ACTORS?

JON: YEAH, I THINK WHAT WE'VE SEEN FROM THE U.S. SIDE IS A RESPONSE TO WHAT IRAN HAS DONE. A LOT OF THIS DEPENDS ON THE INTERPRETATION OF THE MEMORANDUM OF UNDERSTANDING. IRAN TRYING TO EXERT ITS CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THIS IS THE BIGGEST CARD IT HAS TO PLAY. ONE OF THE THINGS WHICH HAVE GOTTEN UNDER IRAN'S SKIN LAST WEEK WAS AN AGREEMENT BETWEEN OMAN AND THE UN'S INTERNATIONAL MARITIME ORGANIZATION TO SET UP A ROUTE THROUGH THE STRAIT WHICH WAS IN OMAN'S TERRITORIAL WATERS. THIS PROBABLY DID NOT SIT WELL WITH IRAN AND MAY HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE THINGS THAT CAUSED THEM TO ASSERT ITS AUTHORITY OVER THE STRAIT. BUT IT REALLY -- FOR IRAN, THE CONTROL OF THE STATE IS A -- GOING FORWARD SO THIS PROBABLY WAS THE BACKGROUND THAT STARTED THE TENSIONS AND HOPEFULLY THEY WILL STAY DIFFUSED BUT YOU HAVE A LOT GOING ON WITHIN IRAN WITH ITS LEADERSHIP. HOW THAT DYNAMIC PLAYED OUT IS SOMETHING TO BE DETERMINED. FOR NOW, IT IS ABOUT THE CONTROL OF THE STRAIT. HASLINDA: JON FOR US THERE. THANK YOU. ASIDE FROM GEOPOLITICS, WE ARE ALSO KEEPING AN EYE ON SOUTH KOREA'S TECH SECTOR. THE COUNTRY IS SET TO UNVEIL WHAT IT CALLS THREE MEGAPROJECTS LATER TODAY WITH THE PRESIDENT SPEAKING ALONG WITH EXECUTIVES FROM SAMSUNG AND SK GROUP. REPORTS SAY THEY COULD ANNOUNCE AN CHIP INVESTMENTS WORTH UP TO $1.3 TRILLION OVER THE NEXT DECADE. FOR MORE, LET'S BRING IN DANNY THOMAS. IS THIS ABOUT RESHAPING KOREA'S LONG-TERM COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGE IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR SPACE?

DANNY: THAT'S RIGHT. IT HAS BEEN WITH THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN TRYING TO ACHIEVE, TO SET KOREA ON THE PATH OF FURTHER CEMENTING ITS POSITION IN THE SEMICONDUCTOR WORLD. WE WILL COME TO KNOW THE DETAILS OF THAT IN ABOUT TWO HOURS OR SO. THERE HAS BEEN A STEADY STREAM OF MEDIA LEAKS THAT TALKS ABOUT VARIOUS NUMBERS. LAST WEEK, WE HEARD 1000 TRILLION WHICH DOUBLED TO ABOUT 2000 TRILLION. OVER THE NEXT DECADE. IF YOU PUT THAT INTO CONTEXT, THE SOUTH KOREAN ECONOMY, THE GDP IS ABOUT 1.8 TRILLION DOLLARS AS OF 2024 SO THESE ARE BIG NUMBERS. HIS ARE BIG PLEDGES FOR -- THESE ARE BIG PLEDGES. HASLINDA: IT IS A HUGE NUMBER. HOW WILL THAT COMPARE IN TERMS OF COMPETITIVENESS WHEN YOU TAKE A LOOK AT ARRIVALS FROM THE LIKES OF THE U.S. AND TAIWAN, WHERE DOES KOREA STAND ON THE BACK OF THIS INVESTMENT?

DENNY: THIS SHOULD DEFINITELY BE AMONG THE BIGGEST OF SINGLE COMPANY OR TO COMPANY INVESTMENT THAT HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED AS A PLEDGE. WE HAD SIMILAR, TSMC WAS THE BIGGEST NUMBER PREVIOUSLY. WE HAD THE CHIPS ACT. IN TERMS OF THE 10 YEAR PROMISE, THIS WILL STAND OUT AS THE BIGGEST. WE WILL KNOW MORE DETAILS AS WE WAIT FOR THE NUMBERS TO COME OUT BUT DEFINITELY, ONE OF THE BIGGEST PLEDGES BY ANY COUNTRY IN THIS POSITION. HASLINDA: DENNY, THANK YOU. DENNY THOMAS THERE. LET'S DISCUSS THE IMPLICATIONS OF SOUTH KOREA'S INDUSTRIAL PUSH AND HOW THIS POTENTIAL CAPITAL SURGE COULD IMPACT INVESTOR SENTIMENT. A MARKET STRATEGIST AT FIRST-DEGREE GLOBAL ASSET MANAGEMENT JOINS US. . $1.3 TRILLION, DOES IT JUSTIFY BUYING KOREA EVEN MORE?

THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME ON THE PROGRAM. WHAT A BIG ANNOUNCEMENT COMING OUT OF KOREA. I SEE THIS PARTIALLY BULLISH AND PARTIALLY BEARISH. BULLISH FROM THE PERSPECTIVE THAT THIS REALLY SHOWS THAT THE DEMAND FOR MEMORY CHIPS IS STRUCTURAL BECAUSE THE TWO MARKET LEADERS IN KOREA ARE REALLY -- WILLING TO PUT $1.3 TRILLION. KOREAN GDP IS $1.8 TRILLION BUT ON THE FLIPSIDE, I WOULD SAY THIS IS A BEARISH SIGNAL BECAUSE THIS RECORD CAPEX SPENDING COMING ON THE BACK OF RECORD DEMAND OFTEN END UP IN NEGLECT. WE COULD SEE THE PRICE OF DRAM COLLAPSING MAYBE TWO OR THREE YEARS DOWN THE ROAD, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW THE SEMIS AND THE TECH INDUSTRY IS GOING GLOBALLY. HASLINDA: FOR NOW, IT SOUNDS JUSTIFIED BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED DEMAND BUT WHAT ROI JUSTIFIES AN INVESTMENT OF $1.3 TRILLION OVER 10 YEARS?

KAIA: I AGREE -- ROI, IT IS DIFFICULT TO MEASURE AND QUANTIFY. IF WE LOOK AT SOME OF THE NEO-CLOUD PROVIDERS IN THE U.S., THE OUR ALLY NOT THAT HIGH. THEY ARE IN THE RANGE OF MAYBE 7% TO 10%. I WOULD ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE A LOT OF INVESTMENT IN KOREA, INTO THE FABS, THE SUPPLY CHAIN DOES NOT START THERE. THE SUPPLY CHAIN ACTUALLY STARTS AT ASML. IT STARTS WITH APPLIED MATERI