英国补选伯纳姆胜选施压首相，美伊谈判推迟

>> NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS, THIS IS THE POLLS WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: I AM FRANCINE LACQUA IN PARIS. U.K. PRIME MINISTER KEIR STARMER FACES NEW CALLS TO STEP DOWN AFTER ANDY BURNHAM COMFORTABLY WINS A SPECIAL ELECTION TO RETURN TO PARLIAMENT. THE U.S. VICE PRESIDENT DELAYS A TRIP TO SWITZERLAND AT FACE-TO-FACE TALKS WITH IRAN ARE POSTPONED. THE U.S. GOVERNMENT BELIEVES ONE OF A'S ADVANCED CHIP MAKING MACHINES MADE ITS WAY TO CHINA. ASML PUSHES BACK AGAINST THE CLAIM. HAPPY FRIDAY. GLOBAL STOCKS ENDING A STRONG WEEK ON A CAUTIOUS NOTE AS IT RELIEF OVER THE INTERIM PEACE DEAL BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN GIVES WAY. CONCERNS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT, SIGNIFICANT HURDLES THAT REMAIN TO SECURE A LASTING AGREEMENT. GLOBAL MARKETS WRAPPING UP, NOT ONLY BECAUSE OF THE LANDMARK U.S. IRAN AGREEMENT BUT STOCKS IN GENERAL SHOWING RESILIENCE BUOYED IN PART BY THE FRENZY AROUND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE. EURO-DOLLAR 11449. GOLD 4157. EUROPEAN MARKETS, FROM PARIS, A LOT OF EMPHASIS ON THE PRICE OF OIL. GREEN ON THE SCREEN FOR THE MOMENT. U.K. IS VERY FOCUSED ON WHAT COMES NEXT POLITICALLY WITH ANDY BURNHAM, SEEMING DECISIVE TO SECURE A SEAT IN PARLIAMENT. THE U.K. FACING FRESH CALLS TO STEP DOWN AFTER THE MAYOR OF GREATER MANCHESTER WAS COMFORTABLY REELECTED TO PARLIAMENT. ANDY BURNHAM'S VICTORY IN A SPECIAL ELECTION PAVES THE WAY FOR A CHALLENGE TO KEIR STARMER FOR THE TOP JOB. >> I SAY TO MY OWN PARTY, THIS IS A FINAL CHANCE TO CHANGE. THIS IS WHAT PEOPLE SAID DIRECTLY TO ME ON THE HUNDREDS OF DOORSTEPS I STOOD ON. WE MUST HEAR IT. WE MUST ACT UPON IT. WE MUST GET IT RIGHT. THERE WILL BE NO SECOND CHANCE. ANNA: LET'S GET MORE FROM OUR BLOOMBERG LONDON BUREAU CHIEF. THIS HAS BIG RAMIFICATIONS. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR U.K. LEADERSHIP GOING FORWARD?

>> A GREAT NIGHT FOR ANDY BURNHAM, A BAD NIGHT FOR ANDY FOR ARGENTO TERRIBLE NIGHT FOR KEIR STARMER. THE GILT MARKETS ARE TRADING IN LINE WITH THE REST OF EUROPE. ONE OF THE REASONS IS THEY ARE MORE FOR THE STAIRS -- FOCUSED ON THE PRICE OF OIL. THERE IS A SENSE THAT INVESTORS, NOW THAT BURNHAM IS ACTUALLY IN POWER, DESPITE THE TRACK RECORD OF WHAT HE SAID AROUND BOND INVESTORS, IT SEEMS LIKE INVESTORS ARE SHRUGGING AT THE MOMENT AND WAITING TO SEE WHAT COMES NEXT. WHAT IS CLEAR IS BURNHAM'S VICTORY WAS WHAT NOBODY SAW COMING AND NOW YOU HAVE ALL OF THE POSTERS TALKING ABOUT HIS CHANCES OF BECOMING PRIME MINISTER THIS YEAR ARE 90%. YOU LOOK AT THE OTHER CONTENDERS AND THEY ARE CLOSE TO 100%. YOU LOOK AT THE MARKETS, IT IT LOOKS LIKE VOTERS ARE THINKING THIS COULD BE THE NEXT LEADER OF THE U.K.. ANNA -- FRANCINE: TELL US ABOUT THE VOTING PATTERNS. THE GREEN VOTE HAS PRETTY MUCH COLLAPSED. >> ABSOLUTELY. THE CONSERVATIVES GOT LESS THAN 3%. REFORMS VOTE WAS SPLIT WITH RESTORE. THAT MEANS WE ARE SEEING A SPLINTERING OF THE RIGHT-WING VOTE. THAT IS GOOD NEWS FOR THE LABOUR PARTY AND BETTER NEWS FOR BURNHAM. HE CAN MAKE THE CASE HE IS LABORS ONLY CHANCE AT STOPPING NIGEL FARAGE'S SENT TO NUMBER 10. KEIR STARMER THIS MORNING CONGRATULATED BURNHAM. HE WAS TALKING ABOUT HOW THEY HAVE CHOSEN LABOR AND CHOSEN IT OVER THE POLITICS OF DIVISION AND HATE. THEY WERE TALKING ABOUT UNITY, THOUGH CLEARLY, THE LABOUR PARTY ITSELF IS NOT UNITED BASED ON THE FACT THAT AS SOON AS BURNHAM WON, HE IS TALKING ABOUT WHAT HIS PARTY NEEDS TO DO NEXT. THE IMPLICATIONS ARE CLEAR THAT HIS PARTY NEEDS TO BACK HIM AS LEADER. ONE THING WE ARE SEEING VERY CLEARLY IS WHOEVER COMES TO POWER, THEIR FISCAL ROOM TO DO MUCH IS SO LIMITED. THE U.K. IS DEALING WITH A HIGH DEBT BURDEN. INTEREST RATES ARE REALLY HIGH. THE COST OF SERVICING DEBT HAS GONE UP THE MOST OF ANY MAY IN THE LAST SIX YEARS AND WE ARE SEEING THE CONTINUING IMPACT OF THE WAR. THE ECONOMY IS GROWING AT A PACE THAT IS QUITE TEPID. THIS COUNTRY HAS THE HIGHEST BORROWING COST OF THE G7 NATIONS. THERE IS A LOT TO UNPACK HERE FOR A LEADER, ESPECIALLY ONE COMING IN WITHOUT THE ELECTED MAJORITY HIS PREDECESSOR HAD. FRANCINE: THANK YOU, OUR BLOOMBERG BUREAU CHIEF RUTH DAVID. U.K. POLITICS IS WHERE YOU WANT TO BE. U.S. PRESIDENT JD VANCE DELAYED HIS DEPARTURE FROM SWITZERLAND WHERE HE WAS SCHEDULED TO LEAD FACE-TO-FACE NEGOTIATIONS OVER IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM. BOTH SIDES BEGAN A 60 DAY COUNTDOWN TO TRANSFORM THE INTERIM CEASE-FIRE INTO A PERMANENT PEACE AGREEMENT. I AM JOINED BY BLOOMBERG HORIZONS MIDDLE EAST & AFRICA AFRICA ANCHOR. HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE DELAY. ABEER: ARE WE NOW FOR THE TIME BEING IS A STATEMENT FROM THE SWISS GOVERNMENT SAYING THE TALKS THAT WERE SUPPOSED TO BE HOSTED LATER TODAY IN GENEVA WERE POSTPONED AND DID NOT GIVE ANY CLARIFICATION AS TO THE REASON BEHIND THE POSTPONEMENT. THE ASSUMPTION FOR THE TIME BEING IS THE MOU AND ITS CAUSES ARE IN EFFECT. IT WAS SIGNED WEDNESDAY BY PRESIDENT TRUMP. AT THE TWO MAIN CONCESSIONS, THE REOPENING OF THE STRAIT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ IS HAPPENING. WE ARE SEEING A TRICKLE OF MOVEMENT UNDER THE SHIPMENTS THERE. THE 60 DAY PERIOD OF WHICH THE 6 -- CEASE-FIRE WOULD BE EXTENDED, ACCORDING TO BOTH SIDES, IS ALSO HAPPENING. WHAT WE ARE SEEING HAPPENING, ONE MAIN CAUSE BEING VIOLATED IS ISRAEL'S THE STUDIES IN LEBANON. TO BE SURE, ISRAEL SAID IT WOULD NOT END ITS HOSTILITIES AGAINST THE SOUTHERN PART OF LEBANON AND THE MILITANT GROUP HEZBOLLAH. OVERNIGHT WE HAVE SEEN CLASHES KILLING OVER A DOZEN LEBANESE PEOPLE AND FOUR IDF SOLDIERS. LEBANON REMAINS A STICKING POINT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. FRANCINE: THANK YOU SO MUCH. WE WILL SEE IF WE GET BACK ON TRACK AND IN WHAT TIME. GLOBAL STOCKS CLOSING ON A CAUTIOUS NOTE AHEAD OF A LONG WEEKEND IN THE U.S.. WE ARE JOINED BY A CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT UBS GLOBAL WEALTH MANAGEMENT. YOU ARE THE MAN I WANT TO SPEAK TO TODAY GIVEN EVERYTHING GOING ON IN EQUITIES AND TREASURIES. WHAT IS THE MARKET PRICING IN RIGHT NOW?

MARK: RIGHT NOW WE ARE SEEING SOME RELIEF ON THE GEOPOLITICAL FRONT END OF THE OIL FRONT. WE THINK THAT THE BIG MESSAGE AROUND THE FED IS THAT THEY ARE ON HOLD AND WE THINK THEY WILL STAY ON HOLD. THAT WILL BE GOOD FOR EQUITIES THE REST OF THE YEAR. >> MARK, WHAT DID YOU LEARN FROM KEVIN WARSH THIS WEEK?

WE ARE SEEING INFLATION PICKING UP. IT IS THE ONLY WAY FORWARD ACTUALLY A HIKE? MARK: THE FIRST THING TO REMEMBER, AND I KNOW, BECAUSE WE HAVE BEEN THROUGH THIS TOGETHER, THAT WHEN YOU GET A NEW FED CHAIR THERE ARE ALWAYS SOME MARBLES AROUND THE COMMUNICATION STYLE. WE SHOULD EXPECT TO THAT. CHAIRMAN WARSH DID SOMETHING OF A MASTERFUL JOB, WITH A LITTLE BIT FOR EVERYONE, FOCUSED ON PRICE STABILITY. ALSO, LAUNCHING THESE TASK FORCES THAT WILL LOOK AT FURTHER TICKET -- PRODUCTIVITY, GOING TO LOOK AT THE DATA WHICH MAY, IN FACT, DECIDE WHAT THE ACTUAL INFLATION NUMBERS ARE. A LOT OF THAT IS POTENTIALLY UP IN THE AIR AT THE MOMENT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE DOT PLOT, THERE IS THE CENTER OF GRAVITY THAT MOVES UP AND THEN MOVES DOWN AGAIN. TAKE MR. WARSH AT HIS WORLD. BE MORE DATA-DEPENDENT. THAT IS WHERE WE ARE TRYING TO FOCUS, BOTH ON THE FED AND THE REST OF MARKETS. FRANCINE: YOU PUT IT SIMPLY, FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS RATHER THAN HEADLINES. FOR YOU, THAT REMAINS KEY. TALK TO ME ABOUT AI FUNDAMENTALS. ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT A CORRECTION OR DO YOU THINK OVERALL EARNINGS WILL STAY AT THESE LEVELS?

MARK: AS YOU MENTIONED, WE HAVE STRONG EARNINGS. WHEN WE LOOK AT THIS CAPEX SPEND IN AI WE SEE IT CLOSE TO $1 TRILLION IN 2028. WE DON'T SEE ANY SIGNS OF ABATEMENT THERE. WE SEE SHORTAGES IN MEMORY PERSISTING A LITTLE BIT YET. OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE RISKS. DEALING WITH INNOVATION AT THE SCALE AND THIS SPEED, CERTAINLY THINGS CAN HAPPEN WITH THIS DEMAND FOR TOKENS. IT COULD GO AWAY, BUT WE DON'T SEE THAT IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. WE ALSO HAVE THIS MASSIVE RUSH FOR CAPITAL AS THESE VERY LARGE COMPANIES THAT WERE RETURNING CAPITAL ARE NOW DESPERATE TO DEPLOY CAPEX AND NEED MORE CAPITAL. WE DO THINK THIS WILL BE ABSORBED BY THE MARKET. WHETHER IT IS THE IPO'S OR IN THE BOND MARKET. THAT LEADS US TO SEE A BASE CASE SCENARIO WHERE THE S&P 500 CAN BE AT 8200 BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT YEAR. FRANCINE: GIVE ME A SENS