Gary Marcus：反对Anthropic以1.4万亿美元估值IPO
Just say no to Anthropic’s IPO
After a bumbling start …
在经历了一番笨拙的开局后……
… Anthropic just announced that it is aiming to IPO at “up to” $1.4 trillion (more likely a bit less), an astronomical sum for a company that has (with the possible exception of one anomalous, heavily subsidized quarter) has never made a profit and that has nearly $900 billion in future liabilities.
……Anthropic 刚刚宣布，其计划以“高达”1.4 万亿美元（更可能略低）的价格进行首次公开募股（IPO）。对于一家从未实现盈利（除一个异常且高度补贴的季度外）、且未来负债接近 9000 亿美元的公司而言，这是一个天文数字般的金额。
The Amended IPO itself is actually candid about the issues, to some degree:
修订后的 IPO 文件本身在一定程度上坦诚地指出了这些问题：
The whole idea that they might be worth trillions mostly comes from projections like this absurd but popular one (try not to vomit when you look at the Y axis) made back in May, at the peak of the tokenmaxxing mania:
它们可能价值数万亿美元的整个想法，主要源于像下面这个荒谬但流行的预测（看 Y 轴时请忍住不吐），该预测发布于五月份，正值 tokenmaxxing 狂热的高峰期：
Predictions like that were predicated on the idea that Anthropic’s revenue would continue on the meteoric growth trajectory that tokenmaxxing drove.
此类预测基于这样一个前提：Anthropic 的收入将继续保持由 tokenmaxxing 推动的迅猛增长轨迹。
The trouble is that it didn’t.
问题在于，情况并非如此。
Quarter 2 growth was 147% compared to Q1, but Q3 wound up being a mere 47% compared to Q2. The decline of tokenmaxxing and the rise of good quality (if not quite top-tier) competitors from China began to take their toll.
第二季度相比第一季度增长了 147%，但第三季度相比第二季度仅增长了 47%。tokenmaxxing 的衰退以及来自中国的高质量（尽管尚未达到顶级）竞争对手的崛起开始显现出负面影响。
A recent graph from TickerTrends (with a green line superimposed by me) makes it clear that the rocket has lost its zing:
TickerTrends 最近发布的一张图表（绿色线条由我叠加）清楚地表明，这枚火箭已经失去了势头：
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