美国10月CPI环比升0.4% 核心通胀与能源传导引关注

Michael McKee is still with us as we get this data. 0.4% headline on CPI month over month. 0.3% on core. Mike, you've been looking through the details. What else stands out to you? Well, a lot of these numbers are not very good, Lisa, because, we've seen a lot of categories go up, and they went up by a significant amount. The food numbers up a half a percent for food and four, tenths for the, food at home category. Gasoline prices, not as much as they had been going up, but they're still going up a solid 1%.

And other motor fuels, 2.7%, that's diesel, and we know that's been a problem. That's still up. Now we see this hitting electricity prices up nine tenths of a percent during the month, a significant gain over, the prior month. We're looking at toys up 1.8%. That's a gain over the prior month. That's tariff related. Then looking at housing, rent, and, owners equivalent rent up three tenths on the month. Lodging away from home up three tenths on the month, and that's an increase.

Medical care services were up six tenths. Motor vehicle insurance up seven tenths. So a lot of these areas where the Fed has been watching to see what is happening are showing some significant increases, and I'll point to intercity transportation. These are buses and subways up 6.6%. So we are seeing second round effects from the rise in energy prices starting to diffuse through the economy. Delivery services, your UPS and your FedEx up 1.8%.

So that's something for the Fed to worry about. Then the super core, which Chris Waller mentioned specifically, which is services x housing, that was up a high five tenths percent on the month. So a lot of things also that feed into the PCE were up during this month, and we'll see Friday when we get the PPI numbers. But it doesn't look like PCE at the end of the month is going to provide the Fed any good news. Michael McKee, great work as always.

Thank you very much for that. Tiffany Tiffany Wilding of PIMCO is still with us. What do you make of the second round effects that Mike just went through? The fact that higher oil prices working their way through the broader economy. Yeah. I mean, we absolutely think that is right. And and the the longer you have energy prices that are remaining elevated, you know, it's just the more that companies actually have to pass through.

You know, it's no longer, you know, a temporary energy shock that, you know, they can absorb within margins. You know, they are starting to pass that through. And, you know, clearly, we saw that first with airfare prices. They are very flexible, the fastest to adjust. And and now, as Mike suggested, maybe we're seeing that broaden out within, you know, intercity transport and stuff like that. But but I think the bigger news is is just the broadening strength across core goods categories.

You know, they they all look firmer than expected. We also have to remember that Amazon had a Prime Day discounting, you know, promotions in October, which tends to put some downward pressure on these kinds of prices, and we just didn't see that in today's data. And I think what that tells us given how, you know, sort of broad it was across core goods that you are seeing companies that are passing through higher energy prices and diesel, higher shipping costs, and things like that onto onto the consumer across a wide range of core goods.

You know, and, of course, I don't think that's I don't think that's unreasonable or or surprising. But, what the Federal Reserve wants to do is they wanna make sure that this doesn't broaden out, and create more persistent, inflation across the economy. So they wanna get a handle on this. You know, they don't like what they're seeing clearly from today's report.