美国就业强劲反弹，12月加息概率升至76%
US Jobs Surge Raises Odds of December Fed Rate Hike
核心宏观事件：就业数据直接改变市场对美联储12月政策路径的概率定价（加息预期大幅回升），且涉及Bloomberg独立通胀数据的发布机制，对交易与资产配置有直接影响。
We spoke with Anna Wong. She's Bloomberg Economics chief US economist about where the biggest job gains are right now and a a new tool from Bloomberg to track the prices of just about anything. It's one of the best jobs report in at least two years in my opinion. So on on the employment side, we see jobs grow... Job growth in professional and business services, so in white collar sectors. And and this is a sector that is supposed to be most at risk for, you know, layoffs from AI substituting for human labor, and we didn't see it in this jobs report.
我们与安娜·黄进行了交谈。她是彭博经济的首席美国经济学家，我们讨论了目前就业增长最大的领域，以及彭博推出的一项几乎可以追踪任何商品价格的新工具。在我看来，这是至少两年来最好的就业报告之一。因此在就业方面，我们看到就业岗位在增长……专业和商业服务领域的就业增长，也就是白领行业。而这个行业本应是最容易受到人工智能替代人力而引发裁员的威胁的，但在这份就业报告中我们并没有看到这种情况。
And then you also have this, you know, huge drop growth in manufacturing manufacturing and also warehousing and transportation sectors. And and so this is kind of... Like, the big picture is it looks like the job growth is broadening beyond the typical culprits, which, you know, for for years, it has only been education and health care. But in this one, we're seeing, you know, three new bright spots. It's really interesting to me.
此外，制造业、仓储和运输行业的就业增长也出现了大幅下滑。所以从大局来看，就业增长似乎正在超越那些典型的‘罪魁祸首’，多年来只有教育和医疗保健行业在增长。但在这次报告中，我们看到了三个新的亮点。这对我来说非常有趣。
Do we know what is driving that growth? Because it seems like we've been talking, as you mentioned, so much about how hard it is for office job workers. There's so little movement there. And some of these sectors I found very surprising because they have previously been kind of the problem children of these reports. Yeah. Exactly. So so within the professional and business services, we see that the job growth is concentrated in administrative services as well as what the robots were starting to do.
我们知道是什么推动了这种增长吗？因为正如你提到的，我们一直在谈论办公室职员找工作有多难，那里的流动性非常低。我发现其中一些行业非常令人惊讶，因为它们以前一直是这些报告中的‘问题儿童’。是的。没错。所以在专业和商业服务领域，我们看到就业增长集中在行政服务领域，以及机器人开始涉足的领域。
Why is why is that making a comeback? I I wonder too. So the deeper details below it, BLS has not covered, has not released so far. Because what I would be interested to see is, are these administrative services more like personal... Like secretary or, you know, or or or somebody that provides physical services to the administrative offices that is somewhat... Somehow classified in that category. Because we do know Grok Bot, for example, is supposed to be your own personal chief of staff.
为什么它们会卷土重来？我也很好奇。因此，更深层的细节，劳工统计局（BLS）尚未涵盖，到目前为止也没有发布。因为我感兴趣的是，这些行政服务更像是个人性质的……比如秘书，或者为行政办公室提供某种物理服务的人员，并且被归类到这一类别中。因为我们确实知道，例如 Grok Bot 应该是你自己的私人幕僚长。
Right? And so those jobs should not be, should be at risk of of being being, canceled in the future. Another type of white collar jobs that saw huge growth is management consulting. And there, it's also... The deeper details are not available. All I know... All I can see is management consulting. So let me speculate. Alright. So we add to that. You also have, you know, the unemployment rate edge lower 4.1% that fell.
对吧？因此这些工作应该处于风险之中，未来可能会被取消。另一个看到巨大增长的白领工作是管理咨询。在那里，同样……更深层的细节不可用。我所知道的……我能看到的只是管理咨询。所以让我推测一下。好的。此外，失业率略微下降至 4.1%。
Average hourly earnings, they increased. So all that said, all we've been talking about, what does this all mean for the Fed? I mean, they had their next meeting coming up in December. What does it mean for them there? Will they keep rates steady? And then what does it look like moving into 2027? Yeah. You know, yesterday, after the steepest Nasdaq 100 drop since March 2020, we see that the odds for a hike in December fell from a first close to 80% chance to 65% chance.
平均小时收入有所增加。综上所述，我们一直在讨论的这些内容对美联储意味着什么？我的意思是，他们12月即将举行下一次会议。这对他们来说意味着什么？他们会维持利率不变吗？那么进入2027年会是什么样子呢？是的。你知道，在3月2020年以来纳斯达克100指数出现最大跌幅之后，我们看到12月加息的概率从最初的接近80%降至65%。
And right after this jobs report, we see the odds of of a hike in December bounce back to 76%. So clearly, the market thinks that this jobs report clear the deck for the Fed to hike in December. But I think that the remaining, you know, 25% who think that the Fed won't hike, including ourselves, still have some lingering doubts about this AI sell off and whether it will accelerate and financial conditions will tighten significantly or will this...
在这份就业报告发布后不久，我们看到12月加息的概率反弹至76%。因此，显然市场认为这份就业报告为美联储在12月加息扫清了障碍。但我认为，包括我们在内的其余25%认为美联储不会加息的人，仍然对这次AI抛售以及它是否会加速、金融条件是否会显著收紧存在一些疑虑，或者这……
You know, whether the equity market will bounce back in the next couple weeks is is a huge open question. Anna, I wanna ask you about something else, although it is very related. You have been working on this long term project at Bloomberg. It started as a tariff inflation tracker, but it's now evolved into something called the Bloomberg price project. I was just on... It is in the terminal, but it's also in the website, and there's some really cool interactive graphics.
你知道，股市在未来几周内是否会反弹是一个巨大的未解之谜。安娜，我想问你另一件事，虽然它与这件事密切相关。你一直在彭博社从事一个长期项目。它最初是一个关税通胀追踪器，但现在已演变为一个名为“彭博价格项目”的东西。我刚才就在……它在终端里，但也在网站上，还有一些非常酷的交互式图表。
Tell us what this is and and why you're doing it. Yeah. So, yeah, as as you mentioned, Christina, it started with tracking impact on tariff. But then last summer then, the BLS commissioner was fired over a very weak jobs report. And suddenly, we got a surge of clients demand, for Bloomberg to, you know, serve as a hedge to official statistics. So there's been this erosion of trust over official statistics. So... Okay.
告诉我们这是什么，以及你为什么在做它。是的。所以，是的，正如克里斯蒂娜提到的，它始于追踪关税的影响。但去年夏天，劳工统计局（BLS）局长因一份非常疲软的就业报告被解雇。突然间，我们收到了客户需求的激增，要求彭博社作为官方统计数据的对冲工具。因此，人们对官方统计数据的信任正在侵蚀。所以……好的。
So so we come... Came together and thought, okay. We will reconstruct the BLS CPI from the bottom up just like the BLS does it or in ways as close to BLS does it as as possible. And we will also modernize it by using all big data, you know, alternative data as the Bloomberg terminal does provide, a lot of data, very rich, data. So this Bloomberg price project is a rebuild of CPI using data like credit cards data, regulatory filings, scraped website data, grocery scanners data, prices data.
所以我们……聚在一起想，好吧。我们将像劳工统计局（BLS）那样自下而上地重建CPI，或者尽可能接近BLS的方式。我们还将通过使用所有大数据进行现代化改造，你知道，替代数据就像彭博终端提供的那样，提供了大量非常丰富数据。因此，这个彭博价格项目是利用信用卡数据、监管备案、抓取网站数据、杂货扫描仪数据和价格数据等重建的CPI。
And you could see in that article that we published, the big take article earlier this year, which give you kind of, like, a hint of the granularity. But the fact is we we drill down... We offer details as deep as at the firm level, at the brand level, and we are showing a thousand lines, whereas this BLS published roughly only two two hundred lines or so. So so, Christina, this is just a way to track inflation so that we can make sure that there's an independent read of inflation.
你可以在我们今年早些时候发表的那篇重磅文章中看到，它大致展示了数据的粒度。但事实是，我们会深入挖掘……我们提供从公司层面到品牌层面的详细信息，而我们展示的数据多达一千行，而美国劳工统计局（BLS）发布的只有大约两百行左右。所以，克里斯蒂娜，这只是追踪通胀的一种方式，以确保我们对通胀有独立的判断。
And I think, you know, after midterms, given the blue sweep from this midterms, a very palpable risk, into 2027 is a government shutdown from the debt ceiling standoff. And you could imagine there would be months again where the BLS would not be publishing data because of shutdown, and this is where Bloomberg price project would step in. We will have the data even when the government shutdown. Anna, I am not ready to talk about government shutdowns.
我认为，你知道的，在中期选举之后，鉴于这次中期选举民主党的大胜，到2027年存在一个非常明显的风险，即因债务上限僵局导致政府停摆。你可以想象，届时可能又有几个月因为政府停摆，劳工统计局不会发布数据，这时彭博价格预测项目（Bloomberg Price Project）就会介入。即使政府停摆，我们也能拥有数据。安娜，我不打算谈论政府停摆的问题。
I just stopped talking about this election, but I understand you are correct. It is a risk. So we have, like, a minute left, Anna. Can you give us specifics? Like, I'm looking at some of these things. I'm looking at a rib eye steak down 23.4%, but give us a few specifics that you see in here. Yeah. So, you know, last year, the beef beef saw a huge spike in prices because of skirworms coming from... Into southern border.
我刚才停止谈论这场选举，但我明白你是对的，这确实是一个风险。安娜，我们只剩下一分钟了。你能给我们一些具体的细节吗？比如，我正在看其中一些数据，我看到肋眼牛排下降了23.4%，但请给我们几个你在这里看到的 specifics。好的。那么，你知道，去年由于来自南部边境的皮尔虫（skirworms），牛肉价格出现了大幅飙升。
Right? And we saw skirt stick increasing 60%, and that is the cut that you usually get in in any Mexican restaurant. So so that's how you can draw the connection of beef prices to skirworms. And, boneless rib eye sticks are down 20% or so, but that's still after they have risen 60% last year. So the price level is still higher. When you go to Outback, you'll... The, manual shock will still be there, but it's trending in the right direction.
对吧？我们看到牛腩条（skirt stick）价格上涨了60%，这是你在任何墨西哥餐厅通常能点到的部位。所以，这就是你将牛肉价格与皮尔虫联系起来的方式。无骨肋眼牛排条下降了约20%，但这还是在去年上涨60%之后的情况。因此，价格水平仍然较高。当你去Outback时，那种冲击感仍然存在，但趋势正在朝正确的方向发展。
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