苹果Q4财报超预期:iPhone收入570亿美元,Mac创历史新高
Siri AI's Biggest Upgrade Yet + John Ternus's First Apple Earnings Call | Power On with Mark Gurman
苹果财报数据亮眼且策略调整(仅推Pro、延期非Pro)对消费电子供应链有风向标意义,值得投资者关注其利润率变化及中国市场韧性。
Like, look at it like, is this the world we want to live in, where everyone is just chatting to the AI doing this, and the guy is snooping on the entire world around them. I mean, I don't know, it's another podcast episode. Why not? Welcome to the Power On podcast. We talk about Apple and the world of consumer tech. I'm Mark Gurman from Bloomberg, and I'm joined by Vlad Savov in Hong Kong. And today we are going to start off by talking about John Ternus first earnings report and call with analysts as the CEO of Apple.
比如,你可以这样想:这是我们想要生活的世界吗?在这里,每个人都在和 AI 聊天,而那个人却在窥探他们周围的一切。我是说,我不知道,这又是另一期播客节目了。为什么不呢?欢迎来到 Power On 播客。我们讨论苹果和消费电子科技的世界。我是彭博社的马克·古尔曼(Mark Gurman),我与在香港的弗拉德·萨沃夫(Vlad Savov)一起 joined。今天我们将首先讨论约翰·特努斯(John Ternus)作为苹果 CEO 的首份财报电话会议及分析师问答。
And we're also going to break down the future of Siri AI, as well as the upcoming iOS 27.3 release coming at the end of this year. And stay tuned for some Apple trivia as well. So, Vlad, what's going on, man? Welcome back. Thank you. Mark. Here in the intervening couple of weeks, Apple has dropped 1 or 2 new products. You were excited for them. How do you feel now? It's been a lot, man. I mean, there's the OLED, iPad mini, there's the new M5 Pro and M5 Max touch screen MacBook pros, with OLED, the Pro LED XDR, MacBook pros without touch in the name.
我们还将深入探讨 Siri AI 的未来,以及今年年底即将发布的 iOS 27.3 版本。别忘了还有一些苹果冷知识。所以,弗拉德,最近怎么样?欢迎回来。谢谢。马克。在这几周的间隔里,苹果发布了一两款新产品。你当时很兴奋,现在感觉如何?真是太多了,伙计。我是说,有 OLED 屏幕的 iPad mini,还有搭载全新 M5 Pro 和 M5 Max 芯片、配备 OLED Pro LED XDR 触控屏的 MacBook Pro,以及名字里没有“触控”字样的 MacBook Pro。
They're getting a little long winded here with their names. The M6, 14 inch MacBook Pro. There's also the M6 iMac. The iPhone two Pro was released. I got my hands on that, and I shared a lot of thoughts on that device. And I'm sure I'm going to talk a lot a bit more about that, over the show and would obviously love to hear your thoughts. Have you had a chance to play with it yet? No, myself, it's been a hot demand over here in Hong Kong and China as well.
他们的产品名称越来越冗长了。M6 14 英寸 MacBook Pro。还有 M6 iMac。iPhone 16 Pro 系列发布了。我拿到了那款设备,并分享了很多看法。我相信在接下来的节目中我会更多地谈论它,当然我也很想听听你的想法。你有机会试玩一下吗?没有,我自己还没拿到。在香港和中国,这款产品的需求一直非常旺盛。
Listen, if I want to try out the iPhone audio, I can just try out the Show Me copycat and I'll probably get the same experience, to be honest. That's funny. It's it's pretty amazing because the iPhone duo preorder was a disaster. I came out and said that they have a supply chain issue. They were not supposed to launch this until the end of November, and even then it was only going to be in the US and China. They went 70 countries wide.
听着,如果我想体验 iPhone 的音频功能,我可以试试那个山寨机 Show Me copycat,说实话,我可能会得到相同的体验。这很有趣。这真的很令人惊讶,因为 iPhone 16 Duo 的预售简直是一场灾难。我当时出来就说他们有供应链问题。他们本不应该在 11 月底之前发布,即使那样,也只会在美国和中国发售。结果却在全球 70 个国家上市。
You were able to get it at an Apple retail store on day one. If you lined up before four in the morning, they had between 50 and 250 units a store, right? I went to a bunch of stores. They didn't really get many preorders. This is all walk in material, and after day one you can't get one right. All the AI bots are getting them quickly. They sell out within 5 to 10 15 seconds. This is a masterclass in how not to launch a device.
你在第一天就在苹果零售店买到了它。如果你早上四点前排队,每家店有 50 到 250 台库存,对吧?我去了一些商店。他们其实并没有收到很多预购订单。这些都是到店购买的材料,而且第一天之后你就很难再买到了。所有的 AI 机器人都在迅速抢购。它们在 5 到 10 秒内就售罄了。这是一堂关于如何不发布设备的经典课程。
If you want users to be happy and have supply, but that's neither here nor there. Speaking of supply, we need to talk about Apple earnings. This was pretty remarkable for Apple. You know going into earnings. There were a lot of headwinds. You know for Apple there were the price increases in June on the Mac and the iPad, the home devices and the Vision Pro and some other things. Then there were the price hikes to the iPhone in September, which set Apple up for basically going 1 or 2 ways.
如果你希望用户满意且供应充足,但这并非重点。说到供应,我们需要谈谈苹果财报。这次苹果的业绩相当出色。大家知道,在财报发布前,苹果面临诸多逆风。例如,6月份Mac、iPad、家庭设备以及Vision Pro等产品提价,随后9月份iPhone也涨价,这使得苹果基本只有两种可能的走向。
One was people aren't going to buy the products because now they're out of reach. They're too expensive for their wallets. Or people are going to buy the products still and they're going to make even more money. Right? But margins may get hit a little bit. And then you also have the backdrop of what was the release typically in the fourth quarter in September. Apple has several new iPhones. This time they only had one main new iPhone line, which was the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 13 Pro Max.
一种情况是,人们因为产品超出承受范围、价格过高而不再购买;另一种情况是人们仍然购买这些产品,从而为苹果带来更高的利润。没错?但利润率可能会受到一定影响。此外,还要考虑到通常于九月(第四季度)发布新品的背景。以往苹果会推出多款新iPhone,而这次仅有一款主要的新iPhone系列,即iPhone 18 Pro和iPhone 13 Pro Max。
The duo. You can't get them. And that launched in what's considered the holiday quarter, right? So that's after September and there's no new iPhone air and there's no new regular iPhone 18. Despite all that, Apple still reported a 114 billion and change in revenue thanks to $57 billion plus an iPhone revenue. So that means despite the big 17 Pro launch last year and the iPhone 18 Pro being super minor as an update, there was still pent up demand for the iPhone.
这两款机型供不应求。它们是在所谓的假日季度发布的,对吧?也就是九月之后。而且没有新的iPhone Air,也没有新的标准版iPhone 18。尽管如此,得益于iPhone收入超过570亿美元,苹果仍报告了1140多亿美元的营收。这意味着,尽管去年推出了iPhone 17 Pro,而今年的iPhone 18 Pro升级幅度微乎其微,但市场对iPhone的需求依然积压旺盛。
Whether that means people bought the iPhone 17 Pro, in the earlier parts of the fourth quarter before the 18 went on sale, or people went and still bought the 18 Pro in big numbers. And so this is a hugely successful, quarter for Apple. The Mac, they announced that fiscal year 2026, they sold more Mac units than they ever have in a prior fiscal year. So that's pretty remarkable. The iPad didn't excel, but it did okay.
这究竟是意味着人们在18 Pro发售前的第四季度早期购买了iPhone 17 Pro,还是意味着人们大量购买了18 Pro。无论如何,这对苹果来说都是一个极其成功的季度。Mac方面,他们宣布在2026财年,Mac销量创下历史新高,这相当了不起。iPad表现虽未突出,但也尚可。
Wearables, home and accessories weren't as bad as they could have been. So from a numbers perspective, I think they did all right. That's until you hit the forecast for the following quarter. But curious what you think because you opened with supply. And I think this is the key issue here. When we call this a successful quote for Apple, what we need to recognize is that the broad consumer electronics industry is like in a whole new phase.
可穿戴设备、家居配件的表现也不至于太差。因此从数据角度看,我认为苹果做得还不错。直到你看到下一季度的预测数据。但我很好奇你的看法,因为你开头提到了供应问题。我认为这才是关键所在。当我们称苹果取得了“成功”的季度时,需要认识到的是,整个消费电子行业正处于一个全新的阶段。
So just growth in general is good. It's doubly impressive when you consider that that same September quarter was the worst decline on record for the smartphone industry, and we just said 50% of that revenue came from iPhones. So to your point, Mark, maybe we could say that it was a good decision for Apple to just give the Pro Series in September because that means every unit that Apple sales of iPhones is going to have a higher margin.
所以,总体增长是好事。考虑到同一九月季度是智能手机行业有史以来最严重的下滑,而我们又刚提到其中50%的收入来自iPhone,这一点显得尤为令人印象深刻。正如你所说,马克,也许我们可以说苹果在九月只发布Pro系列是一个明智的决定,因为这意味着苹果销售的每一部iPhone都会带来更高的利润率。
And the reason is we keep saying it, but it bears repeating memory prices are through the roof right now. So many models, especially across the Chinese smartphone makers, is effectively not viable financially. Apple is more insulated because it has better margins. But you and I both looked at it. Gross margin, operating margin. All of that is down for Apple. But still, the growth is really impressive because the demand is down.
原因在于我们反复强调但值得重申的一点:目前内存价格高得离谱。因此,许多机型——尤其是中国智能手机制造商的众多型号——在财务上实际上已不可行。苹果受到的影响较小,因为它拥有更好的利润率。但你我都看到了,苹果的毛利率、营业利润率等所有指标都在下降。尽管如此,在需求下滑的背景下,这种增长依然非常令人印象深刻。
We've got to give credit to the MacBook neo. We've celebrated that photo that might turn out to be Apple's products of the year because it got response everywhere, both in the US and China, the two key markets and all of that. Again, the backdrop is so important is the fact that people don't have the discretionary income. On the one hand, the global economy is not doing great. The key markets like China, China is dealing with deflation.
我们必须给MacBook Air(注:原文neo疑为Air之误)以肯定。我们曾庆祝那张照片,它可能成为苹果年度产品,因为它在美国和中国这两个关键市场都引发了广泛反响。同样重要的是背景因素:人们缺乏可支配收入。一方面,全球经济表现不佳;另一方面,像中国这样的关键市场正面临通货紧缩。
It's struggling to spark the consumer market. Right. We have all these issues. And Apple is growing and hitting new records and worth bearing in mind. John Ternus said this and will dive into his performance. I want to hear your feedback. During the conference call, he said, this record number of upgraders in China. So you go, yeah, they say that every quarter. But again, economic slowdown, prices are up and people are still upgrading.
中国正在努力刺激消费市场。没错,我们面临诸多问题。而苹果却在增长并创下新纪录,这一点值得铭记。约翰·特努斯(John Ternus)曾就此发表过言论,我们将深入分析他的业绩表现,也想听听你们的反馈。他在电话会议中表示,中国升级换代的用户数量创下了历史新高。于是你会想,是啊,他们每个季度都这么说。但再次强调,在经济放缓、价格上涨的情况下,人们仍在进行升级。
So you said pent up demand is maybe we can call it built in demand. It's just everybody has years and years of Apple loyalty built in. And it's just unfree for years into it. I need to buy whatever the iPhone is. You're not giving me a regular iPhone. I'm buying the iPhone Pro and your numbers look better. I mean, all of this performance I would attribute to Apple's long history, it's not just this quarter or the past year is the history that people have with it.
所以你提到积压需求,我们也可以称之为内置需求。这仅仅是因为多年来大家积累了深厚的苹果忠诚度。而且这种需求已经持续了多年。我觉得我必须买最新的iPhone。你不给我普通版iPhone,我就买iPhone Pro,这样你的数据看起来会更好。我的意思是,所有这些表现都应归因于苹果悠久的历史,而不仅仅是本季度或过去一年的历史,而是人们长期以来与该产品建立的历史联系。
A few things just want to take this piece by piece. So you mentioned the iPhone margins. And given the memory shortage, it being, you know, opportune that they only launch the higher margin Pro and Pro Max models. During the quarter. I'm told, though, this is a decision that was made two and a half, three years ago to move, the non-pro phones out of the cycle, out of the fourth quarter holiday cycle, move it to the following year into the spring.
有几件事我想逐一拆解。你提到了 iPhone 的利润率。鉴于内存短缺,他们在本季度仅发布高利润率的 Pro 和 Pro Max 机型,这可谓恰逢其时。不过据我了解,将非 Pro 机型移出第四季度假日周期、推迟至次年春季发布的决定,早在两到三年前就已做出。
Now, the dynamics at play there were twofold. One, Samsung had split their line up. So they have two major launches. They've got one in the spring, and one of the four fall. They split the regular phones apart from the foldables. The other factor here is Apple wanting to spread revenue across, you know, the four quarters versus tucking everything into the holiday period as they have traditionally done. So as much as Apple, you know, fans want to say that this is a soundly run business, that things don't just happen, as a coincidence, like their success in terms of the marke
此时背后的动态因素有两方面。一是三星将其产品线进行了拆分,因此他们有两个主要发布节点:春季一次,秋季一次。他们将常规手机与折叠屏手机分开发布。另一个因素是苹果希望将收入均匀分布到四个季度中,而不是像过去那样将所有产品都集中在假日期间发布。尽管苹果粉丝总想强调这是一家运营稳健的企业,成功并非偶然,比如他们在市场份额方面的成就……
原文超出正文长度上限,此处截断——上游还有内容,完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力