霍尔木兹海峡重开谈判推进,伊朗警告若遭袭将扩大报复范围
Hormuz Reopening Talks Advance as Iran Warns of Wider Response if Attacked
地缘局势直接影响原油定价与全球风险偏好,关注霍尔木兹海峡谈判进展及油价波动。
Good morning. This is horizons, Middle East and Africa. Our top stories this morning. Stocks stabilize Asian markets limit losses after Wall Street's worst selloff since June. Investors remain cautious as questions linger over whether the eye trade is facing a correction or a deeper reset. Oil retreats crude falls as President Trump is set to favor more time for diplomacy with Iran before considering fresh strikes. This shift eases fears of an immediate escalation, even as attacks around turmoil continue and Gulf leaders push to avert another round of U.S.
早上好。这里是Horizons中东与非洲频道。今早头条新闻:股市企稳,亚洲市场在华尔街自6月以来最严重的抛售后限制跌幅。投资者保持谨慎,因为人们仍在质疑贸易争端是面临修正还是更深层的重组。油价回落,原油下跌,因为特朗普总统准备在对伊朗考虑新一轮打击之前给予更多外交斡旋时间。这一转变缓解了人们对局势立即升级的担忧,尽管围绕动荡地区的袭击仍在继续,海湾领导人正努力避免另一轮美以针对伊朗的打击。
Israeli strikes on Iran amid fears of a wider conflict. Regional powers are stepping up diplomatic efforts as Washington waits its next move on Tehran. It's just gone 9 a.m. across the Emirates. I'm up here in Abu Dhabi this time around. We are live at the opening ceremony, just about to start, with conversations about energy and everything around energy markets. But before we get to all of that, let's get a quick look at where markets are sitting.
amid fears of a wider conflict. Regional powers are stepping up diplomatic efforts as Washington waits its next move on Tehran. It's just gone 9 a.m. across the Emirates. I'm up here in Abu Dhabi this time around. We are live at the opening ceremony, just about to start, with conversations about energy and everything around energy markets. But before we get to all of that, let's get a quick look at where markets are sitting.
You're seeing some moderation in S&P futures, about 5/10 of a percent higher. Of course, this is after the bruising selloff that we saw by the end of last week the S&P 500 falling about 2%. Nasdaq 100 had sunk 3.5%. As a matter of fact, briefly crossing the threshold of a technical correction. But right now you're looking at Nasdaq futures that are about 1% higher. Again, you're seeing a moderation in the movement. What is down this morning, however, is Brent crude prices about 3.2% lower.
This is of course as as President Trump comes back to the region and suggests that we might see diplomacy taking shape in the Middle East. Of course, that remains to be seen. We will be having those conversations around the day and around the next couple of days. Bitcoin, of course, the route that we saw by the end of last week that hack in Binance's withdrawal has come back this morning. But of course, the story to continue monitoring and a story that we will be discussing later on on the show, and then look at the benchmark yields in the United States not doing anything this morning, 4.92%, 4.93 almost percent.
Of course, all investors are waiting for the midterm elections. And what happens in the aftermath of that, whether it's the moves on inflation, on the benchmark yields or on oil prices. But for a look at what is happening in Asian markets this morning, we've got Anthony Stevens standing for us in Hong Kong. Anthony good morning. What are you looking at? Morning. Thanks. You mentioned that markets were doing better than expected.
当然,所有投资者都在等待中期选举。以及选举后的局势发展,无论是通胀、基准收益率还是油价的动向。但为了了解今天早晨亚洲市场的动态,我们有驻香港记者安东尼·史蒂文斯(Anthony Stevens)为我们报道。安东尼,早上好。你在关注什么?早上好。谢谢。你提到市场表现好于预期。
And one of the big reasons for that is the earnings out of tech. So we had some very strong earnings from Tokyo Electron. That stock's up almost 7% advantage following on from its strong earnings last week up almost 3%. And most notably SK Hynix leading Korea here. Korea has bounced around 6% intraday from the open. As people get back into Hynix after that very strong result. Similarly, in China, we saw very strong results from Jiangsu Optical.
其中一个重要原因是科技股财报强劲。例如东京电子(Tokyo Electron)业绩非常强劲。该股在上周强劲财报后上涨近3%,今日早盘又上涨近7%。最引人注目的是韩国海力士(SK Hynix)。韩国股市开盘后盘中反弹约6%。随着人们在该股发布强劲财报后重新买入海力士股票,市场情绪回暖。同样在中国,我们看到江苏光学(Jiangsu Optical)业绩非常强劲。
Now flip the board and we can kind of see some moderation of that optimism. Because some of those values are up because people are shutting down books. On the other side of things, companies that have done well so far this year are seeing some significant selling without any news, really. So we see selling in the Chinese banks. We see selling in the Singaporean banks. You know, we saw selling in the Australian banks.
现在换个角度看,我们可以看到这种乐观情绪有所缓和。因为部分股价上涨是因为投资者正在平仓获利。另一方面,今年迄今表现良好的公司却出现了显著抛售,且没有任何重大消息。我们看到中国银行股遭到抛售,新加坡银行股也是如此。你知道,澳大利亚银行股也出现了抛售。
So positions that have done really well this year are getting rid of. We removed. Now we switched about India which has just started trading, and that's a much simpler story. The Indian structure of story is back in play here after the Reliance Industries result that stocks up 7%. We similarly see reform in the Tata Group potentially on the cards that stocks up 4% on Tata Steel and in very strong sales numbers for Maruti in the consumer space continues that theme of the upwardly mobile Indian consumer.
因此,今年表现出色的头寸正在被清仓。我们已调整仓位。现在我们转向印度市场,该市场刚刚开盘,情况相对简单。在印度石油天然气公司(Reliance Industries)财报公布后,其股价上涨7%,相关主题故事再次成为焦点。类似地,塔塔集团(Tata Group)的改革举措可能也在酝酿之中,塔塔钢铁(Tata Steel)股价上涨4%。在汽车消费领域,马鲁蒂铃木(Maruti Suzuki)销售数据强劲,继续体现印度中产阶级消费者向上流动的态势。
So Maruti is up 3% and Jio financial services related to reliance is up 4.5%. Okay Anthony, thank you as always for those market updates. Of course, you will be back with us in 30 minutes or so. Also Anthony Stephens in Hong Kong. Now retreating to the geopolitical picture, oil prices are dropping this morning as hopes build that diplomacy could delay or avert another round of U.S. strikes on Iran. President Donald Trump is reported to want to give talks more time, while Iran says that discussions on reopening the Strait of Hormuz are making progress.
因此,马鲁蒂铃木股价上涨3%,与印度石油天然气公司相关的Jio金融服务公司股价上涨4.5%。好的,安东尼,一如既往地感谢你带来这些市场更新。当然,大约30分钟后你将再次与我们连线。此外,还有驻香港记者安东尼·史蒂文斯(Anthony Stephens)。现在让我们回到地缘政治图景,今晨油价下跌,因为人们希望外交手段能够推迟或避免美国对伊朗的另一轮打击。据报道,唐纳德·特朗普总统希望给谈判更多时间,而伊朗方面表示,关于重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的讨论正在取得进展。
But tensions remain high, with Gulf states fearing that Tehran will make good on warnings that any renewed attack would trigger a broader response across the region. We know that, uh, the rules of logic, uh, tells us that, uh, the Iranian stand and the American stand are far apart. And if these positions are not bridged, then we have to worry about, uh, the worst. So we are hoping that there is a diplomatic breakthrough, uh, before that actually happens, from the perspective of, uh, the UAE.
但紧张局势依然高企,海湾国家担心德黑兰会兑现其警告:任何新一轮袭击都将引发该地区更广泛的回应。我们知道,呃,逻辑规则告诉我们,呃,伊朗的立场和美国的立场相距甚远。如果这些立场无法弥合,那么我们就必须担心最坏的情况发生。因此,从阿联酋的角度来看,我们希望在那之前能出现外交突破。
And I would also see Gulf countries, uh, we don't really want to see another round of confrontation in the region. We want to see, uh, diplomatic and political resolution of this crisis, protracted crisis that we have seen. For more, we're now joined by owner and Bloomberg's managing editor for the Middle East and North Africa owner. Good morning. You're joining us from Dubai. We're having these wider conversations about oil energy.
此外,我认为海湾国家也不希望看到该地区再次陷入对抗。我们希望通过外交和政治手段解决这场我们已经看到的长期危机。接下来,我们将连线彭博社中东及北非地区主编兼所有者。早上好。您现在在迪拜与我们连线。我们正在就石油能源问题进行更广泛的讨论。
But of course that is in the context of the geopolitics. Are we seeing any genuine diplomatic opening this time around? Good morning Abir. Yes, there is definitely some movement there, but I'd be very cautious about calling it a breakthrough just yet. Uh, we have seen that Iranian Foreign Minister Iraq just, uh, yesterday said that there has been some progress in implementation of a, uh, two day plan to reopen Hormuz.
当然,这一切都置于地缘政治的背景下。这次我们是否看到了真正的外交缓和迹象?早上好,阿比尔。是的,确实有一些动向,但我还不敢贸然称之为突破。嗯,我们看到伊朗外长伊拉克(注:此处疑为口误或特定指代,按原文保留)昨天表示,在实施一项为期两天的重新开放霍尔木兹海峡计划方面取得了一些进展。
Uh, but, uh, essentially what this is, is an accelerated version of a seven day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz that Iranians put to the Americans back in September, which was flatly rejected, uh, by Trump. So yes, there is clearly some movement, uh, on the diplomatic front. Uh, but it is way too early to say that this is going to result in some kind of a breakthrough and allow the region to avert another round of fighting between the US and Iran a bit.
嗯,但这本质上是对伊朗去年九月向美国提出的为期七天的重新开放霍尔木兹海峡计划的加速版本,该计划当时被特朗普断然拒绝。所以,是的,外交层面显然有了一些动向。但说这会导致某种突破并让该地区避免美伊之间新一轮冲突还为时过早。
Okay. On our we had written a big piece over the weekend about the reaction of Gulf states. Of course, you were just listening to Gaga, who is a senior adviser to the UAE president here. What has the reaction from wider Gulf states been about what Iran's retaliation could look like this time around, and how are they looking at that? Well, I think across the Gulf there is both a sense of concern, uh, and frustration with the way things have been going, as you just mentioned, uh, the US and made it very clear that Gulf states feel like they are being dragged into a war, that they have been trying for months to avert through diplomatic talks.
好的。我们在周末写了一篇关于海湾国家反应的重头文章。当然,你刚才听到了加加(Gaga)的发言,他是阿联酋总统的高级顾问。对于伊朗此次报复可能采取的形式,以及各方如何看待这一情况,更广泛的海湾国家有何反应?嗯,我认为在整个海湾地区,人们既感到担忧,又对事态发展感到沮丧,正如你刚才提到的,美国和(注:此处原文似有遗漏或口误,按原文翻译)明确表明,海湾国家感觉自己被拖入了一场战争,而他们过去几个月一直试图通过外交谈判来避免这场战争。
And we have seen that sentiment echoed, uh, at that conference over the weekend in Bahrain, with Egypt's foreign minister also saying that should the war resume, the second round of fighting could be more destructive than what we have seen in the first round back in February, March and April. Uh, we have seen, uh, the Iranian supreme leader, uh, Mustafa Khamenei, uh, ordering his commanders to expand the geographic limits of any Iranian retaliation and expand a list of US and Israeli targets.
我们看到,这种情绪在上周末于巴林举行的会议上得到了呼应。埃及外交部长也表示,如果战争恢复,第二轮冲突可能比今年2月、3月和4月所见的第一轮更具破坏性。我们还看到,伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊下令其指挥官扩大任何伊朗报复行动的地理范围,并扩大美国和以色列的目标清单。
Should Iran come under renewed attacks from the US and or Israel? Uh, so what we're looking at is this region feeling extremely frustrated that they're not part of the decision making, but they may, uh, bear the costs of renewed fighting. Should the US and or Israel decide to attack Iran again? Okay, on our. Thank you as always for those updates on our. And Bloomberg's Managing Editor for the Middle East and North Africa, joining us out of Dubai now carrying on the conversation.
如果伊朗遭受美国和/或以色列的新一轮攻击?嗯,我们观察到的是,该地区感到极度沮丧,因为他们不参与决策过程,却可能要承担新一轮战斗的成本。如果美国和/或以色列决定再次攻击伊朗?好的,在我们的节目上。一如既往地感谢您带来这些更新。彭博社中东和北非地区主编现在从迪拜加入我们的对话,继续这一话题。
Months of disruption across the glo
全球范围内数月的中断
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