美国中期选举AI议题:61%选民反对新建数据中心
Why Voters Are Turning Against Data Centers
AI基础设施正从纯商业问题演变为影响监管环境与地方政策的关键宏观变量。本文提供了最新的选民态度数据(61%反对)与资金流向(5600万游说),揭示了跨党派的政治阻力与潜在的区域性监管分化风险,值得关注其对算力扩张节奏的影响。
Westin: This year's midterm elections will be the first where AI will figure prominently. Everyone more or less agrees that the new technology could have great potential. But there is a wide range of concerns about its possible effects. Everything from what it could mean for employment... -The fear surrounding AI, you know, is my son or daughter going to have a job? I just paid all this tuition. Am I going to have a job?
韦斯坦:今年的中期选举将是人工智能首次显著登场的一年。人们或多或少都认同,这项新技术具有巨大的潜力。但对其可能产生的影响存在广泛的担忧。从它对就业意味着什么……——围绕人工智能的恐惧,你知道,是担心我的儿子或女儿会不会有工作?我刚付了这么多学费。我会有工作吗?
Westin: To whether it could lead to mass extinction. -AI is just as dangerous as drugs, so we should have an FDA for AI, so public policy needs to support the public good of AI alignment. Westin: But for this particular election, it seems the most pressing concern is over the building of all those data centers needed to support AI. -We do not want any more data centers in our county. -This is not a Republican issue. It's not a Democrat issue.
韦斯坦:到它是否会导致大规模灭绝。——人工智能和毒品一样危险,所以我们应该为人工智能设立食品药品监督管理局(FDA),因此公共政策需要支持人工智能对齐这一公共利益。韦斯坦:但对于这次特定的选举来说,最紧迫的担忧似乎是为了支持人工智能而建设所有这些数据中心。——我们不想在我们的县里再建任何数据中心。——这不是共和党的问题,也不是民主党的问题。
It's a people issue. -You're seeing red states and blue states both look at the data center opportunity and quandary in the same way, which is it can't hurt consumers. -Nobody knows yet what it's going to mean for that community. They don't know what it's going to mean for their water. They don't know what it's going to mean in regard to noise pollution or other types of pollutants. Westin: Resistance to building more data centers has led some states to slow down AI's development. -We need an immediate pause on advanced AI development and a permanent ban on super intelligence. -New York issuing the first statewide moratorium on new hyperscale data centers.
这是民众的问题。——你看到红州和蓝州都以同样的方式看待数据中心的机遇与困境,那就是它不会伤害消费者。——目前还不知道这对那个社区意味着什么。他们不知道这对他们的水资源意味着什么。他们也不知道这在噪音污染或其他类型的污染物方面意味着什么。韦斯坦:对建设更多数据中心的抵制导致一些州减缓了人工智能的发展。——我们需要立即暂停先进人工智能的开发,并永久禁止超级智能。——纽约州发布了针对新建超大规模数据中心的首个全州性禁令。
Westin: So although only 44% of voters say AI overall is very important to their vote, well below other issues like the economy, the future of democracy and health care, 61% say they are against the building of more data centers. With so much at stake, it's not surprising that political groups aligned with AI companies Anthropic and OpenAI have poured some $56 million into elections across the country. And for once, it may not matter whether you're a Republican or a Democrat. -I think you have equal opportunity on both sides of the aisle where AI is a is a worry.
韦斯坦:因此,尽管只有44%的选民表示人工智能总体上对他们的投票非常重要,远低于经济、民主的未来和医疗保健等其他议题,但61%的人表示反对建设更多的数据中心。在如此多的利益攸关的情况下,与人工智能公司Anthropic和OpenAI结盟的政治团体在全国各地的选举中投入了约5600万美元,这并不令人惊讶。而且这一次,无论你是共和党人还是民主党人,可能都不重要了。——我认为在两党阵营中,人工智能都是一个令人担忧的问题,双方都有同等的机会。
Westin: To understand better the issues surrounding data centers and AI in this election, we turn to someone who regularly advises the C-suite and to two longtime members of Congress, starting with Paul Ryan, who served as the 54th Speaker of the House and is now a partner at Solamere Capital. -I'm from Wisconsin. I live... in my hometown of Janesville we have a ballot initiative on the data center to go in our old GM plant location.
韦斯汀:为了更好地了解本次选举中围绕数据中心和人工智能的问题,我们转向一位经常为高管层提供咨询的人士以及两位国会议员的老成员,首先从保罗·瑞安开始,他曾担任第54任众议院议长,现在是Solamere Capital的合伙人。-我来自威斯康星州。我住在……我的家乡简斯维尔,我们有一个关于在旧通用汽车工厂地点建设数据中心的公投倡议。
And you know, it's like a 50-50 proposition. All the ads you see on TV are blaming the other candidate of being more in favor of data centers than the other person. I see it as a proxy on just AI itself. Westin: According to Ryan, much of the current problems surrounding data centers come from the way some hyperscalers have sold them to the public at large. -They basically go out there and say, "This is going to either take everyone's job "or kill everybody.
你知道,这就像是一个五五开的局面。你在电视上看到的所有广告都在指责另一位候选人更支持数据中心,而不是另一个人。我认为这只是人工智能本身的一个代理问题。韦斯汀:根据瑞安的说法,目前围绕数据中心的大多数问题来自于一些超大规模企业向公众推销它们的方式。-他们基本上出去说,“这将要么夺走每个人的工作,”“要么杀死所有人。”
"But please, we need more data centers to do this." I mean, so I think they were really horrible at presenting themselves. And then the way they entered communities was wrong. Westin: Paul Ryan served in Congress, with Kevin Brady, of Texas, and had the seat next to his on the House Ways and Means Committee. Brady sees some of the same resistance in his home state. -You know, I think it's because there's two things intersecting.
"但是请,我们需要更多的数据中心来做这件事。"我的意思是,所以我认为他们在自我呈现方面真的很糟糕。然后他们进入社区的方式也是错误的。韦斯汀:保罗·瑞安曾在国会与来自德克萨斯州的凯文·布雷迪一起任职,并在众议院筹款委员会上坐在他旁边的位置。布雷迪在他的家乡也看到了类似的抵制情绪。-你知道,我认为这是因为有两件事交织在一起。
One for communities are the question, is this data center next door good for us and good for our community, our electric rates, our water capacity, all that? But the second and equally important is, you know, do those dangerous data centers fuel an AI that's good for my future, you know, and for our livelihood? And I think that has driven a lot of the resistance to data centers beyond just the physical footprint of them, which I'm absolutely confident can be addressed.
对于社区来说,问题是,这个隔壁的数据中心对我们和我们社区、我们的电费、我们的水资源容量等是否有利?但第二点同样重要的是,你知道,那些危险的数据中心是否会推动一个对我的未来有利的AI,你知道,对我们的生计?我认为这驱动了很多对数据中心的抵制,不仅仅是因为它们物理上的占地面积,我绝对有信心可以解决这个问题。
Standards by states and local communities on these data centers can solve a lot, create a lot of assurance for local communities. What they still don't know is, you know, are we hosting a center that works against me in AI? And there, I think that's driving a lot of the angst in Texas. Well, you know, we're at the center of this. We've got 230, I think, applications for data centers. They're starting to move from the suburban areas out to the rural areas.
各州和地方社区对这些数据中心的标准可以解决很多问题,为当地社区创造很多保障。他们仍然不知道的是,你知道,我们是否正在托管一个在AI方面对我有害的中心?在那里,我认为这是驱动德克萨斯州许多焦虑的原因。嗯,你知道,我们处于这一切的中心。我想我们有230个数据中心申请。它们开始从郊区转移到农村地区。
It's a major issue in our election right now. And so I think, at the end of the day, if you're looking for a solution, it really is, this is a state federal partnership. States create the standards for the data centers. And the feds, Congress designate the safeguards for consumer protections, for safety and all that going forward. But in the middle of the election, no one talks policy or solutions. This is an issue that I think generates fear, you know, among voters.
这是目前我们选举中的一个重大问题。因此我认为,归根结底,如果你寻求解决方案,这确实是一个州与联邦的合作关系。各州为数据中心制定标准。而联邦方面,国会指定了消费者保护、安全等方面的保障措施。但在选举期间,没有人讨论政策或解决方案。我认为这个问题在选民中引发了恐惧。
Westin: Will we have state competition for data centers? If it's a state standards issues, they can have different standards and compete for them. -They can. And I think every state, I think you'll see some of them flat out ban them outright. Others who set very strict standards here, but welcome them and that investment to it. I think you're going to see, at the end of the day, local communities are going to have a bigger say, you know, in how those data centers operate and how they exit, perhaps in the future as well.
韦斯汀:数据中心会有州际竞争吗?如果是州级标准问题,它们可以有不同的标准并为此展开竞争。-他们可以。我认为每个州的情况都会不同,你会看到有些州直接全面禁止。而其他一些州则会设定非常严格的标准,但欢迎这些投资。我认为归根结底,当地社区将对数据中心的运营方式以及未来的退出机制拥有更大的话语权。
So I think there's a path forward. But right now, in the heat of the battle, this is just a pure political, you know, issue. And big tech is clearly in the crosshairs right now. Westin: We saw the first television election back in 1960, perhaps, we have the first AI election. What does that mean for this election? -Oh, I think it's going to mean a lot. Westin: Blair Effron of Centerview Partners sees the AI issues from the perspective of the C-suite he works with regularly. -I think the industry has not done a very good job explaining to most people what it's about, how they benefit.
所以我认为有一条前进的道路。但目前,在激烈的斗争中,这纯粹是一个政治问题。大型科技公司显然正成为众矢之的。韦斯汀:我们或许在1960年见证了第一次电视选举,而现在我们可能迎来了第一次AI选举。这对本次选举意味着什么?-哦,我认为这将意义重大。韦斯汀:Centerview Partners的布莱尔·埃夫隆从他经常打交道的C-suite高管视角看待AI问题。-我认为该行业在向大多数人解释其本质和益处方面做得并不好。
And what you really see is most voters, most citizens taking out on the data centers because it's local. It comes into their community. They understand what it means to take up a lot of land, what it means to take up a lot of resource, energy. And I really think when you see that, it's actually a manifestation of what they consider to be the dangers of AI. Now, remember, AI has 3 components to it that people talk about.
而你真正看到的是,大多数选民和公民对数据中心发泄不满,因为它是本地的。它进入了他们的社区。他们明白占用大量土地意味着什么,占用大量资源和能源意味着什么。我真的认为,当你看到这一点时,这实际上是他们对AI危险看法的一种体现。现在,请记住,人们谈论的AI包含三个组成部分。
The economic component, the security component, and the Armageddon component. And what I can't figure out, David, and no one can, is where on that spectrum of 3 voters are actually most concerned. I would actually venture to say it's the first element, which is the economy. We still don't know whether it's going to be a steep curve with job loss, a more gradual curve, or frankly, no curve. I would argue it depends on the sector.
经济部分、安全部分,以及末日部分。而我无法弄明白的是,大卫,没人能弄明白,在这三个部分的谱系中,选民实际上最担心的是哪一部分。我甚至可以说,是第一个要素,即经济。我们仍然不知道这将是导致失业的陡峭曲线,还是更平缓的曲线,或者坦率地说,根本没有曲线。我认为这取决于行业领域。
Information services is the one that really has been impacted the most. 350,000 jobs have been lost since the advent of ChatGPT. That said, for most companies, they have not been laying off people because of AI. They're not hiring as much, but we're still on an employment level of 4.2%. And I think the thing we need to figure out, is because no one knows which of those paths is going to happen, is what are we going to do that solves and helps any of those scenarios?
信息服务行业受到的冲击最为严重。自 ChatGPT 问世以来,已有 35 万个就业岗位流失。话虽如此,对于大多数公司而言,它们并未因人工智能而裁员。招聘力度虽有所减弱,但就业率仍维持在 4.2% 的水平。我认为我们需要弄清楚的是,由于无人知晓哪条路径会成为现实,我们究竟该采取何种措施来解决并应对所有这些情景?
We need a program, and I think for '28, it's going to be a big issue for all the candidates. What is the program that says, among any of these scenarios, we can figure out how to help someone who is either displaced or needs to understand better the tools of what AI can do? Westin: I think most people think AI has something of a PR problem, particularly with the data centers. Does it also have a political problem in this sense that, as you say, we don't know how it will play out in the labor market.
我们需要一个计划,我认为到 2028 年这将成为所有候选人面临的一大议题。这个计划旨在说明,在上述任何一种情景下,我们都能找出如何帮助那些被替代的人,或者帮助他们更好地理解人工智能工具的能力。韦斯汀:我认为大多数人认为人工智能存在某种公关问题,尤其是在数据中心方面。是否也如你所说,它在劳动力市场中的表现尚不明确,因此也存在政治层面的问题?
But I don't see a strong case for saying it's going to create a lot more jobs. So, I mean, when you have something as vast, as important as AI, you normally want the political process to
但我看不出有强有力的理由认为它会创造更多的工作岗位。我的意思是,当面对像人工智能这样庞大且重要的事物时,通常希望政治进程能够
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