巴西大选后股市暴跌，Bolsonaro逃往美国

The hours that followed the presidential election in Brazil that saw Luis Ignacio Lula da Silva win a fourth term by a margin of 4,400,000 votes. His opponent, Flavio Bolsonaro, fled the country with his family. So it left everyone wondering, where in the world is Flavio Bolsonaro? Well, they landed in Miami on Wednesday. The US granted them visas. Felipe Pacheco, he is Bloomberg's Brazil country chief, and he joins us now with the latest.

Felipe, thanks for for for sitting in with us. I have to ask you to just do a quick recap. Explain, you know, why he fled in the first place. And, yes, where is he at this point? Do we know? Lisa, good morning, and it's great to talk to you guys again. I don't know if you remember, but a few weeks ago, we were here talking about how all of the drama within Brazilian politics could make an amazing Netflix series. So everything just got a lot better after the week and then after actually what we saw with the results.

Because, okay, Sunday, we did have a few issues when it comes to both candidates as for the voting hours to be extended by two hours. Then this was granted by the electoral court and then by the supreme court, so Brazilians had, until 7PM, to vote instead of 5PM. Everything, went as expected. A voting count, the counting started, very quickly here in Brazil. The entire system is digital, so we were expecting, the result within a few hours.

And, well, it came. The numbers you just mentioned, president Lula had this amazing turnaround that nobody actually saw coming the way he did. 4.4 millions, votes in advantage to Flavio Bostenaro. And that night, we saw, we heard both of them speaking. Of course, big surprise for Lula's supporters were all over the place. Gigantic party in major cities in Brazil. And then at that same night, Flavio Bostenato said that he would not accept that result.

At that point, we had already the supreme court, the electoral court, the house of the parliament, the the head of the parliament, and the head of the senate, the the... Both the lower house and the senate, all of them agreed with the numbers with the result as we saw. So there were no contestations. There were no, indications that there was any kind of fraud with what we were actually dealing with on Sunday. Fast forward to Monday, we had once, judge from the supreme court asking Flavio Bolsonaro to turn in his passports because he was being investigated in the Supreme Court for money laundering in two different investigations.

And then there was a third one also within the Supreme Court that was investigating whether his campaign was receiving money from abroad, from international, investors or supporters, which is not allowed by Brazilian law. After that, said he wouldn't leave the country. There was no need for him to turn in his passports, but what we saw the day after everyone was asking for him. We had news from this very weird website in Argentina saying that he entered the country, and then from there, he would fly to The US.

All of his aids here in Brazil did not know where they were. They kept saying that they were trying to get in touch with him. They would send him WhatsApp messages that wouldn't be delivered, and he disappeared. The entire day on Friday, we were freaking out here in the newsroom just like any other major, newsroom, in in Brazil. We... All of our colleagues, at that point, the entire country was just trying to find out where was that person.

And it was a quite unique situation because now we know that many sources that spoke not just to us, but also to the local media, they deliberately lied Mhmm. Because they said that he was on his way to The US. We had, our reporting in DC saying that the US government was willing to give him, his wife, and his two daughters a visa to actually enter The US, and we were expecting him to arrive in Miami Tuesday evening, either Dallas or Miami, and then the reporting was pointing to to Miami.

But they were lying. They were lying to us. They were lying deliberately, not just to us, but to everyone in major papers and television broadcasting companies in Brazil. We found him on Wednesday morning. Getting off the Gulf Stream. Arrived in Miami. Yes. He he went to Argentina. He flew from Argentina to Ecuador, from Ecuador to Miami. And after that, we actually don't know. He's in... With you guys in The US. We don't know exactly where here.

We don't know if he's in Florida, if he... His... He has a brother who fled to The US two years ago, who lives in Texas. So that... That's why we were expecting him to go to Dallas too. But at the end of that morning, he put us out a statement saying that he wouldn't recognize the result of the elections, that he would be the head of the opposition from The US. But that's very unclear because nobody here in Brazil, including the ones that were supporting his candidacy, including his party that got a lot stronger in the senate, none of them agree with him being the opposition.

But me ask you about the kind of market response that we've seen to this. Of course, you've been tracking the plane as it makes its way to Miami, but you've been tracking the market reaction as well. And in the immediate aftermath of that election, we saw a massive drop in the Brazilian stock market as investors kind of reckoned with the fact that Lule is going to have this fourth term. How much has that evened out? So what...

Where is the anxiety placed there? Why do we see the response that we did? David, you're completely right. Monday, there was this massive sellout. There were... It was one of those days to remember we had a secret breaker that was for this... For the stock exchange that wasn't hit since the pandemic. We had the worst performance for the currency of the Brazilian real for one day since 1999. It dropped close to 10%. You just see those moves when you have, some sort of, foreign exchange arrangements or adjustments in, in a country.

I think it's very important to put this sell off in perspective because three weeks before, last weekend when we had the results from the first round that were pointing to Flavio Bolsonaro as being the the winner of the first round, we had a massive rally with Brazilian assets. So with everything Brazil you can imagine, ETFs in Japan, ADRs listed in The US, the stocks here in Sao Paulo. It was... Everything was flying through the roof, and they were kept in that level.

All of this because Flavio Bostoltz has a much... Had a much more pro market approach to fiscal cost. There were a lot of bets that he would actually implement, all kinds of fiscal adjust... Adjustments and and and debt, and the level of Brazil's indebtedness is a major topic here. And Lula has always been sticking to his pro social programs, narrative, and that's something that he made it clear during the the campaign for the second round as well.

So the sell off on Monday has a lot more to do with the readjustment from the expectations from the week before rather than anyone questioning whether the the result of the election, was, reliable or not. We've been talking to investors all the time. We were in touch with peoples from Sunday night to Monday morning. We still are. We had several stories throughout the week showing that hedge funds were burnt along the way, but that's because there was this huge expectation that the result of the first round would repeat in the second round.