Bloomberg：中期选举后监管放松与银行资本回流预期

Mark has really taken a hit. The midterms, that's also top of mind for a lot of people. The outcome of Tuesday's midterms, it stands to have a huge impact on policy, of course. A lot depends on which party controls which party controls country. Yes. Nathan Dean has gamed that out. What could happen once the ballots are counted and the implications for six specific sectors, including energy and banking. Nathan is the senior government analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, and he joins us now from Washington.

Nathan, great to speak with you once again. I wanna ask you just about what could happen here in terms of regulations. That would affect a number of of sectors here. But I look at the SEC. I think it has two commissioners right now, not five. CFTC has has one. Does the regulatory landscape, such as it exists now, stand to change in in light of this election outcome? Not exactly. And that's actually one of the biggest things we're telling our clients right now is expect a lot of deregulation to happen over the next six months in terms of proposals and finalization because the White House is essentially telling its agencies, get everything done now so that you can complete it before the end of the term.

Now the Democrats, if they take the house of representatives, they can they can write strongly worded letters. They can bring in people for oversight, but the regulators are gonna do what they do. And so in the SEC and the CFTC case, you know, not having a democratic commissioner or having a sole person there, they can move fairly quickly on crypto, banking, you know, proxy access rules. There's probably about 20 or so proposals between those three agencies, the Fed, the SEC, the CFTC alone, that we think will be finalized in 2027.

And so whether you're looking at financial services, crypto, even in the telecom space, there's a lot of deregulatory impacts that are coming for you in 2027 and 2028. Nathan, you have this great piece out about the, the six sectors to watch in this election. What could happen about the energy sector post election? Yeah. So the energy sector, this is really interesting because... Look. I mean, we're talking about the midterms right now, but this time next week, the focus is all gonna be on president Trump.

The power of the presidency is more powerful when it comes to things like geopolitical matters, trade, security, tariffs, etcetera. And the energy sector is is specifically exposed because a, you know, there's talk of potentially The United States attacking Iran later this week that has to put the Strait Of Hormuz, the price of Brent into discussion. But you also get the situation where Venezuela, for example, president Trump is telling those energy companies, we want you to go to Venezuela.

And if you're Exxon Mobil or ConocoPhillips, you're coming back and saying, well, do we have a guarantee after 01/20/2029 that we're gonna be able to be protected here? That's billions of dollars you want us to spend in CapEx. So those energy companies are really somewhat of a pickle because you have to protect yourself for the long run, but you also have to make sure you're not getting the president's at the same time.

Nathan, let's talk AI. We were talking about AI from a market perspective here just a moment ago. But in terms of of policy, there has been, I guess, growing calls for the federal government to do something here. All the while, as I look at the campaigns across this country, it seems like when it comes to data centers, for instance, the action is at the state and local level. It's not at the the national level. How do you see that kind of playing out here after the election?

What changes might come to to AI policy and AI regulation so much as it exists? Yeah. There's really three things here. You know? Just as a reminder, I mean, until 01/20/2029, president Trump is the only one that actually has this pulse on the federal policy. Because if it's legislation, you need his signature. If it's regulation, you need his blessing. But like you said, on the state side, we have 36 gubernatorial races that are gonna be decided next week.

There's a lot of anti data center angst going amongst the states. We actually are looking at this from a project perspective, and it's not really gonna change the project spending, but it may delay for certain projects as people say, hey. I can't go to New York. I'm gonna go into New Hampshire or Vermont, etcetera. But then also keep in mind, the twenty twenty eight presidential race starts on Wednesday, And a lot of that angst and a lot of that, you know, economic populism is going to go to artificial intelligence, and that is ultimately gonna start playing out on policy threats as we get closer to the twenty twenty eight election, something to keep in mind for the long game.

What about banking regulators? What can change as far as you mentioned that before, banking regulation post election? Yeah. So, you know, the the the GSIBs, this is the Bank of America, c... Citigroup, JPMorgan. They're the primary winners right now because we anticipate in the lame duck period, the Federal Reserve is going to finalize the Basel three endgame G SIB surcharge proposals that will ultimately allow about $18,000,000,000 to be returning capital to those eight G SIBs.

This is on a top of 13,000,000,000 that was already passed to them earlier this year. So you're looking around $31,000,000,000. But the more exciting thing for the regional banks is a proposal we think is coming out that will be finalized next year that would increase the thresholds of when you'd be caught... Be caught up in what's called this enhanced prudential standards. Essentially, what you need to know is is that when this proposal is finalized, there's gonna be a lot more opportunities for organic and inorganic growth.

So we think that there's gonna be significant m and a opportunities for the regional bank sectors. Look for those banks around the 100,000,000,000 assets level all the way up to those PNC Capital One truest banks around 700,000,000,000 level. Nate, let me, maybe ask you lastly about trade policy, what this means for the the consumer. Of course, critically important here to The US economy, the strength of the the consumer and it being consumer driven.

We've seen the president's trade policy being reassessed by the administration, certainly assessed by the courts, as well. Do you foresee congress, if there's a democratic house, perhaps the democratic senate as well, taking more aggressive approach to trade policy here, after the election? I actually don't other than in terms of having hearings and finding that out in the battle of public perception. And, I have to apologize.

But if you're a Costco member, you are probably Yes, Nathan. Yes. You know, we are saying that 2027 is the year of the tariff, not 2025. Interesting. Meaning is when... Go back to liberation day. When president Trump put off those tariffs, he used IEPA. Supreme court said you can't do that. Now they've transferred all of this to other tariffs. So if you ever see people in the news say section two thirty two, six, and three thirty eight, essentially, what you have is a new tariff that president Trump has legal authority to put in place.

And when he says the tariff is his favorite word in the English dictionary, he truly believes it as a matter of pointing out towards negotiations. So whether you get to this idea of whether or not it's a taco where, you know, potentially president Trump doesn't implement the tariff or not, retailers like Costco, Lululemon, Nike, Adidas, you're gonna have to be very careful because tariffs are coming back, and they're coming back in a very strong way next year.

Nathan, is this going to affect my dollar 50 There you go. Hot dog and soda combo? I mean, come on. I think I saw in the last corporate earnings that the, dollar 50 was here to stay for the long run. I think it would take a lot to move off on that price.