Bloomberg：通胀与关税推高生活成本，中期选举成焦点
Cost of Living Concerns Loom Over the Midterms
Two years ago then, candidate Donald Trump, he promised to bring down the high cost of living, and it was his closing argument in the 2024 campaign. A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper. So many people mention... I go in. So many people mention groceries. I'm announcing today that under my leadership, The United States will commit to the ambitious goal of slashing energy and electricity prices by half, at least half.
两年前，候选人唐纳德·特朗普承诺降低高昂的生活成本，这也是他在2024年竞选中的核心论点。投给特朗普意味着你的杂货费用会更低。很多人提到……我走进来。很多人提到杂货。我今天宣布，在我的领导下，美国将致力于实现一个雄心勃勃的目标：将能源和电价至少削减一半。
We will drive down the rates so you will be able to pay 2% again, and we will be able to finance or refinance your homes drastically at much lower costs. Alright. But inflation, it still remains elevated. The war with Iran, it's led to higher oil, gas prices, and now the GOP, while it's on the defensive, it's trying to hold on to voters who backed Trump before. Chris Kennedy is the economic statecraft lead at Bloomberg Economics, and he co wrote a big take for Bloomberg about the affordability crisis going into the midterms.
我们将把利率降下来，让你能够再次支付2%的利率，并且我们能够以更低廉的成本大幅融资或再融资你的房屋。好吧。但通货膨胀仍然居高不下。与伊朗的战争导致石油和天然气价格上涨，而现在共和党处于守势，试图留住之前支持特朗普的选民。克里斯·肯尼迪是彭博经济学的经济外交负责人，他与他人合写了一篇关于中期选举前负担能力危机的重磅分析。
Chris joins us now. Chris, always good to speak with you. I think that what we've heard from the White House in recent weeks is there is no affordability crisis. And I wonder if you've been going through the data, do they bear that out? Thanks, David. Not really. Uh-huh. So what we've seen, and it's interesting looking back to the clips that you just you just flashed because, you know, president Donald Trump touched on, you know, many of the things that we explored in our big take, things like gas prices, things like grocery prices, and, of course, mortgage rates.
克里斯现在加入我们。克里斯，很高兴与你交谈。我认为我们最近几周从白宫听到的说法是，不存在负担能力危机。我想知道你是否查看了数据，它们是否支持这一说法？谢谢，大卫。并不真的如此。嗯哼。所以我们看到的情况很有趣，回顾你刚刚展示的片段，因为你知道，唐纳德·总统提到了许多我们在重磅分析中探讨的问题，比如汽油价格、杂货价格，当然还有抵押贷款利率。
And all of these are up since, president Donald Trump took office. But more importantly, what we found is that voters really do link higher gas prices, higher grocery prices to Trump's policy decisions, and that includes the decision to go to war with Iran, of course, but also tariffs. And there's a lot of polls out there on the nonpartisan Cook political report. It listed seven states as toss-up. So being that heard, I wanna point out two.
自唐纳德·总统上任以来，所有这些都在上涨。但更重要的是，我们发现选民确实将更高的汽油价格和杂货价格与特朗普的政策决定联系起来，这包括与伊朗开战的决定，当然还有关税。在非党派库克政治报告中有大量民调，该报告列出了七个摇摆州。因此，既然听到了这些，我想指出其中两个。
Okay? I wanna point out Michigan, and I wanna point out Iowa. Why do those two kind of stand out to you the most when it comes to affordability? Well, Michigan is one of the states where we saw one of the biggest swings of young voters toward president Trump in in 2024. This is part of this new coalition that he built, an expanded coalition, including younger voters, black and Latino voters, etcetera. But Michigan has really been hit by some of these different factors that we've seen, you know, really voters expressing concern over things like gas prices, there's been some refinery outages in the North...
好吗？我想指出密歇根州，还想指出爱荷华州。在可负担性方面，为什么这两个州最让你觉得突出？嗯，密歇根州是我们在2024年看到年轻选民向特朗普总统转向幅度最大的州之一。这是他建立的新联盟的一部分，一个扩大的联盟，包括年轻选民、黑人和拉丁裔选民等。但密歇根州确实受到了我们看到的这些不同因素的影响，你知道的，选民们确实表达了对汽油价格等问题的担忧，北部的一些炼油厂出现了停产……
In the in the Midwest, Upper Midwest in particular. And then, of course, looking at Iowa, you know, this is a farm state, and farm states had sort of gotten this perfect storm of bad economic headwinds in the closing days of the midterm elections. Diesel prices are up just as harvest season is coming in. China has not purchased all the agricultural commodities that it committed to purchasing after retaliating following Trump's initial tariffs.
在中部地区，特别是上中西部地区。然后，当然，看看爱荷华州，你知道，这是一个农业州，而农业州在中期选举的最后几天遭遇了这种糟糕的经济逆风形成的完美风暴。柴油价格上涨正值收获季节到来之际。中国没有购买其在报复特朗普最初的关税后承诺购买的所有农产品。
And, of course, the tariffs themselves are affecting the cost of things like farm machinery. And so this is a problem across farm states, but Iowa is sort of exemplifying this. Chris, I wanna ask you about what the president has done to try to ameliorate the situation here as we get so close to the midterm elections. And I think of the state of Maine, of course, a state that relies heavily on heating oil this time of year and going into the winter, it's gonna be a huge cost for for a lot of Mainers.
当然，关税本身也在影响农用机械等物品的成本。因此，这是农业州普遍存在的问题，但爱荷华州可以说是这一问题的典型代表。克里斯，我想问问你，随着中期选举临近，总统为缓解这里的局势做了些什么努力。我想到的是缅因州，当然，这是一个在这个季节和进入冬季时严重依赖取暖油的州，这对许多缅因州居民来说将是一笔巨大的开支。
We have seen the president relax some of the tariffs that he put in place on Canadian exports. Seems like one example of what he's tried to make... Do something that would make maybe a a small, difference here. What has his success rate been in in trying to maybe blunt some of the impact of these economic policies in the broader economic situation? Well, the short answer is not much in terms of actual prices. Of course, it's a signal, and, it sounds like incumbent senator Susan Collins certainly appreciates the opportunity to tell voters that she's been able to negotiate some relief.
我们看到总统放松了一些他对加拿大出口商品实施的关税。这似乎是他试图做出的一点改变的例子，也许能带来一些微小的差异。他在试图缓和这些经济政策对更广泛经济形势的影响方面的成功率如何？嗯，简短的回答是，在实际价格方面没什么效果。当然，这是一个信号，而且现任参议员苏珊·科林斯显然很感激有机会告诉选民，她已经争取到了一些救济措施。
I would I would also note in addition to lowering some tariffs, the president raised some tariffs, including on things like canoes, Maine is a is a number one producer of. But I think it is an it is an interesting contrast, because you don't see president Trump up in Maine campaigning with Susan Collins. And this also represents, I think, the challenges in the Republican party. You know, some candidates are having to run away from the president's policies, and Trump is focusing more on those red states, those deeper red states that are now in play where turnout is gonna be a huge factor.
我还要补充一点，除了降低部分关税外，总统还提高了某些商品的关税，包括独木舟等——缅因州是这类产品的主要生产地之一。但我觉得这形成了一种有趣的对比，因为你不会看到特朗普总统在缅因州与苏珊·柯林斯一起参加竞选活动。这也反映了共和党内部面临的挑战。你知道，一些候选人不得不与总统的政策保持距离，而特朗普则更加关注那些关键的深红色州，在这些州中，投票率将成为一个巨大的影响因素。
Chris, what I love about this story too is you go into, you speak to the people. Right? You went to a number of states. I wanna talk about Texas, Ohio, Michigan. You spoke to one person in particular. His name was Jose Luis Borrego junior. The Latino vote, very important for this race. Have they... Have you seen a turn from what the conversation you had with him? He was someone who voted for Biden, then he voted for Trump.
克里斯，我也很喜欢这个故事，因为你深入其中，与人交谈。对吧？你走访了多个州。我想谈谈得克萨斯州、俄亥俄州和密歇根州。你特别采访了一位名叫何塞·路易斯·博雷戈（Jose Luis Borrego Jr.）的人。拉丁裔选票在这场选举中至关重要。他们……你有没有从他那里看到态度的转变？他曾经支持拜登，后来又转而支持特朗普。
What is his thoughts kind of going into right now, midterm elections? Where is he leaning? Has it changed? Yeah. So this is one of the voters where we saw a switch or an int... Intent to switch party votes from president Trump in 2024 to the Democratic senate candidate, James Talarico this year. And it really is linked to affordability, and national polling as well as polling in Texas shows that the Latino vote in particular is focused on the economy and some of these questions around gas prices much, even more so than the than the population as a whole.
他对当前中期选举的看法如何？他倾向于哪一方？这种倾向是否发生了变化？是的。这位选民就是我们在2024年大选中看到从支持特朗普转向今年民主党参议员候选人詹姆斯·塔拉里克（James Talarico）的选民之一。这与生活成本密切相关，全国范围内的民调以及得克萨斯州的民调都显示，拉丁裔选民尤其关注经济问题，特别是汽油价格等问题，其关注度远高于整体人口。
So these are voters that switched to Trump again in 2024. He built this new coalition. There was a 27 swing in Texas for Latino voters away from Democrats and toward Republicans, and we're seeing that erode this election cycle. Maybe we could look forward here in the last minute that we have with you, sort of what would happen depending on the outcome of these midterms when it comes to economic policy. So, obviously, there are a variety of ways in which this could go.
因此，这些选民在2024年再次转向支持特朗普。他组建了一个新的联盟。在得克萨斯州，拉丁裔选民中有27个百分点从民主党转向共和党，而我们正在观察到这一趋势在本届选举周期中出现松动。也许我们可以利用最后的一分钟时间，展望一下如果中期选举结果不同，在经济政策方面可能会发生什么情况。显然，这种情况有多种可能的发展路径。
Democrats take the house, maybe the house and the senate. Maybe none of that comes to pass. How are you thinking about kind of the notional changes that might happen here after the midterm elections when it comes to economic policy? So Democrats will have the power of the purse. That's gonna be their most powerful tool if they, sorry, if they take one of the... One or both chambers of of congress. Of course, in the senate, if they happen to take the senate, which is a little bit less likely, There will still be the 60...
民主党人拿下众议院，也许能拿下众议院和参议院。也许这一切都不会发生。对于中期选举后经济政策方面可能发生的一些概念性变化，你是如何思考的？因此，民主党人将掌握钱袋子的权力。如果他们……抱歉，如果他们拿下国会的一个或两个院，这将是他们最有力的工具。当然，在参议院，如果他们碰巧拿下参议院（可能性稍小一些），仍然需要60票……
Or 60 vote threshold to overcome a filibuster. And then even if they are able to pass legislation together, the president has his... Has a veto. So it will still be a negotiation. Democrats are going to attempt to constrain president Trump, especially on things like war and tariffs. Mhmm. But there will be some challenges.
或者达到60票的门槛以打破阻挠议事。即使他们能够共同通过立法，总统也有否决权。所以这仍然是一场谈判。民主党人将试图限制特朗普总统，特别是在战争和关税等问题上。嗯哼。但也会面临一些挑战。
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