Alpine Saxon Woods：AI资金链断裂与油价波动致市场承压
Oil Is a Tough Trade for Now, Says Sarah Hunt
Big week and a big week ahead. It seems like every week is a big week. Coming up this hour, we've got Sarah Hunt of Alpine Saxon Woods as the tech sell off deepens. Walt Piecyk of LightShed previewing Apple results. And Neil Richardson of ADP looking ahead to a busy week of data and Fed speak. We begin this hour with tech leading stocks lower. Amazon and Intel results adding to the route. Sarah Hunt of Alpine Saxon Woods writing, all eyes will be on the AI sector and how that progresses as the funding becomes dependent on both equity and credit markets.
本周形势严峻，未来一周同样充满挑战。似乎每周都是关键周。本小时节目中，随着科技股抛售加剧，我们将采访Alpine Saxon Woods的Sarah Hunt；LightShed的Walt Piecyk将预览苹果公司的财报；ADP的Neil Richardson则展望数据发布密集的一周及美联储官员讲话。我们以此开篇：科技股领涨大盘走低，亚马逊和英特尔的财报进一步加剧了跌势。Alpine Saxon Woods的Sarah Hunt写道：“所有人的目光都将聚焦于人工智能领域及其进展，因为融资正日益依赖股权市场和信贷市场。”
Sarah joins us now for more. Sarah, great to see you. Good morning. Thank you. What do you do with the week like what we just got? Oh, well, you know, you had the whole lead up into this where everybody was... Including ourselves, we're talking about how good earnings had been and how everything was that was carrying a lot of the... That plus the AI trade was carrying a lot of the sentiment. And now you have sort of cracks in both.
现在请Sarah加入我们的节目深入探讨。Sarah，很高兴见到你。早上好。谢谢。面对刚刚过去的这样一周，你会如何应对？哦，你知道的，在此之前有一段漫长的预热期，大家都在……包括我们自己，都在讨论盈利表现有多好，以及哪些因素支撑着大量……加上AI交易，这些共同主导了市场情绪。而现在，这两方面都出现了裂痕。
And I wouldn't say that the earnings necessarily were bad, but I think that Alphabet presages an issue when your funding for AI is your base business and your base business all of a sudden is being somewhat... I mean, who knows exactly what that level is, but cannibalized by AI, then how do we look at that going forward? And we're already crossing over into 2027 where those cash flows that were funding everything and you still had mild positive cash flows are flipping to negative.
我并不认为这些财报必然糟糕，但我认为Alphabet的情况预示着一个问题：当你的AI资金来源是你的基础业务，而你的基础业务突然受到某种程度的……我的意思是，没人确切知道具体程度如何，但被AI所蚕食时，我们该如何看待未来的发展？我们已经进入2027年，那些曾经为一切提供资金、且仍保持温和正向现金流的项目，正在转为负值。
And I think that that's one of the reasons you've seen some multiple compression that you have. So it sounds like you aren't so quick to just jump in and buy a dip. So we hear two tight... Types of thought. Right? On one hand, if you actually look at the multiples, they're pretty cheap, and the earnings have actually been pretty good. And on the flip side, there's something going on here where they're not answering the question of how they plan to pay this all off and continue to improve profitability at pace, the way that they have.
我认为这也是你看到估值倍数压缩的原因之一。所以听起来你并不急于抄底买入。因此我们听到两种紧密相关的观点。对吧？一方面，如果你实际查看估值倍数，它们相当便宜，而且盈利实际上相当不错。另一方面，这里有些情况是，他们并未回答如何偿还所有债务并继续以以往速度提升盈利能力的问题。
What's your take on this? Well, I think that a a good chunk of that multiple compression is exactly that. It's the uncertainty of I'm spending all this cash. And in prior periods, I could explain to you if I spent a dollar what I could think I was going to be making on that dollar and how that was gonna happen. And right now, it's... We're gonna spend it, they're gonna come, and then there will be money. And there is less of a...
对此你怎么看？嗯，我认为估值倍数压缩的很大一部分正是源于此。那就是不确定性：我正在花费如此多的现金。而在之前的时期，我可以向你解释，如果我花了一美元，我能预期从中获得多少回报，以及这如何实现。而现在，情况是……我们会花钱，钱会进来，然后才会有收益。而且这种……
Of an easy path. Now there are all sorts of discussions about different kinds of compute being used for different kinds of things and how all of this is going to work. But that's a lot of money to spend right now, and people don't quite understand where that return is coming from. You layer that into the fact that inflation is problematic on the oil front, that you've got component shortages, and all of a sudden people start to get weary and weary about spending that money, and you've gotta go to debt and equity markets and raise it.
这是一条平坦的道路。如今，人们就不同计算资源在不同场景中的应用方式及其运作机制展开了各种讨论。但眼下投入如此巨额资金，许多人并不清楚回报究竟从何而来。再加上石油领域通胀问题突出、关键零部件短缺等因素叠加，人们开始对支出感到疲惫和犹豫，企业不得不转向债务市场和股权市场来筹集资金。
So this diversification trade has been, sort of, what people are turning to increasingly. Do you think that's the way to go? Is that the way to hedge is to just look for for companies and countries that are uncorrelated in some capacity? Does that exist? Well, I was about to say the correlation is not... I mean, it's hard to say that it's uncorrelated because if you have a problem with the story that's been driving the market, the entire market is going to suffer regardless of the companies that are that are knee deep in it versus not knee deep in it.
因此，这种多元化策略正逐渐成为人们日益青睐的选择。你认为这是正确的方向吗？对冲风险的方式是否就是寻找在某种程度上彼此无关联的公司和国家？这样的标的存在吗？嗯，我本来想说相关性并非……我的意思是，很难断言某物完全无关联，因为如果驱动市场的核心叙事出现问题，整个市场都会受到影响，无论这些公司是深陷其中还是置身事外。
I mean, we're balanced flow... We're balance sheet and cash flow people, so we always have been. So there's a big emphasis on that for us. And there are plenty of places. The industrial sector has gotten hit pretty hard. Health care has got some... There... There's a lot of good things that are going on in a lot of these different markets. The rise in interest rates was tough on the industrials, and you've seen some of them that are mostly tied to AI have a little bit more problems.
我的意思是，我们注重现金流平衡……我们是资产负债表和现金流导向型投资者，一直以来都是如此。因此我们对此高度重视。市场上仍有大量机会。工业部门受到较大冲击，医疗保健领域则存在一些……许多不同市场中都有不少积极因素。利率上升对工业板块造成压力，而一些主要与人工智能相关的公司也面临更多挑战。
But there's still an enormous amount of build out. I mean, look at GDP like that. That... We're we're do... The economy is doing well. And, yes, AI is a big part of that, but there are other parts of the economy that are doing well as... That are also doing well. So it's not only that story. The problem is that that is the theme that people have anchored to. And when that theme starts to get a little bit wobbly, you see the market do it as well.
但建设扩张的规模依然巨大。以GDP为例来看，经济表现良好。是的，人工智能在其中占据重要地位，但经济的其它部分也在稳步向好。因此，这并非唯一的故事线。问题在于，人工智能已成为人们锚定的主题。当这一主题开始略显不稳时，市场也会随之波动。
You liked energy for a while. Mhmm. Chevron and Exxon reported massive results this morning. What's your reaction? Well, I mean, that... That's one of those areas where the growth in earnings is baked into... Just watch the commodity price. Right? So you can see that. But the volatility that the commodity prices had for the year between ceasefires, not ceasefires, and everything else that's gone on made that a harder trade because as soon as oil ran up, it ran right back down again.
你曾经看好能源板块。嗯，雪佛龙和埃克森美孚今天早上公布了强劲的业绩。你的反应如何？嗯，我的意思是，这是那些盈利增长已经内嵌于……中的领域之一。只需关注大宗商品价格即可。对吧？所以你可以看到这一点。但大宗商品价格在停火（并非停火）以及在此期间发生的一切事件之间产生的年度波动，使得这一交易变得更加困难，因为一旦油价上涨，它又会迅速回落。
And people were not comfortable holding those stocks, I think, on the longer term. You have to be a long term person to look at energy, but you have to think that all of the things that we're doing increases power consumption. Anything that is part of that trade is ultimately going to be in more demand. Now the question of timing and everything else and the problems that you're seeing because of the refining... What's been hit in refining in between Russia and Ukraine, all of those things bake more inflation into the cake longer because the product prices are higher.
我认为人们不太愿意长期持有这些股票。你必须是一个长期主义者才能看待能源板块，但你必须认为我们正在做的所有事情都会增加电力消耗。任何属于这一交易的部分最终都将面临更大的需求。现在的问题是时机以及其他问题，以及你看到的因炼油业……俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的炼油业受到的冲击，所有这些因素都会因为产品价格较高而将更多的通胀因素更长久地融入其中。
That's much harder to solve than a high oil price. So there's a lot going on under the surface. I still think that energy is not a bad place to be. There's plenty of infrastructure that does well under any circumstances. But even the commodity itself, I think you've got a longer term call on those assets than people thought you did even five years ago. You mentioned the geopolitical risks when it comes to energy. Next week, when it comes to the midterm elections, Lisa, me, and John have asked this question to a lot of our guests.
这比高油价更难解决。因此表面之下有很多动态。我仍然认为能源板块并不是一个糟糕的选择。有许多基础设施在任何情况下都能表现良好。但我认为，即使是大宗商品本身，你对这些资产的长期看涨预期也比五年前人们所认为的要长。你提到了能源方面的地缘政治风险。下周中期选举之际，丽莎、我和约翰已经向许多嘉宾提出了这个问题。
Is it going to be a clearing event, or is it going to the start of fresh volatility? Well, it's interesting because, yes, I've been here for that question, and I... My my original thought was that it's a clearing event. I will say, though, that if it get... If it's very extreme and you get a very big blue wave, it may be a kickoff for more volatility because people will start asking what that means for some of these big trades that we're talking about, like the data center trade and everything else.
这将是一次清洗性事件，还是新一轮波动的开始？嗯，这很有趣，因为是的，我一直在思考这个问题，而我……我最初的想法是这是一次清洗性事件。不过我要说，如果情况非常极端，并且出现巨大的蓝色浪潮（民主党大胜），它可能会成为更多波动的导火索，因为人们会开始询问这对我们讨论的一些重大交易意味着什么，比如数据中心交易等。
The odds of building all the ones that are on the books right now weren't that high anyway because you didn't have the power. But if you're gonna be slowed down from a regulatory standpoint, that's a problem as well. Can you give a sense of how you're adjusting portfolios in response to all of this? Are you holding more cash? Are you going more into bonds with the expectation that maybe there's gonna be less of a tailwind to growth?
既然你们没有足够的资金，那么现在账面上所有项目的建成概率本来就不高。但如果从监管角度来看你们会受到阻碍，那同样也是个问题。你能谈谈你们是如何根据这一切调整投资组合的吗？你们是持有更多现金吗？还是说你们更倾向于买入债券，预期经济增长的顺风可能会减弱？
So when when rates, moved up after the Fed hike in September, we expanded our duration a little bit. You saw rates continue to move up, but we're still very short, relatively speaking, on the short end of the curve because that long end has so much volatility here. I think that... I mean, we were already moving... We were already... Because like I said, we're cash flow and sort of dividend and capital return people. We were already looking for places where we didn't see as much vulnerability because you could see those cash flow swings and how that was going to affect multiples of some of the really big guys.
因此，当9月美联储加息后利率上升时，我们稍微延长了久期。你看到利率继续上升，但相对而言，我们在曲线短端仍然保持非常短的仓位，因为长端存在如此大的波动性。我认为……我的意思是，我们已经在调整……我们已经……因为就像我说的，我们是关注现金流以及股息和资本回报的人。我们已经在寻找那些我们认为脆弱性较小的地方，因为你可以看到这些现金流的波动，以及这将如何影响一些大型企业的估值倍数。
So something like a Microsoft that got hit really, really hard earlier in the year on the software issue has come back and is doing a lot better. So we're more comfortable in places like that where we thought that the the reaction was overdone. And I think that that's where you have to look for because it's not just stocks are down, b
因此，像微软这样在年初因软件问题受到严重打击的公司已经恢复过来，表现好得多。所以我们对这类情况感到更加舒适，我们认为那里的反应过度了。我认为你必须在这里寻找机会，因为不仅仅是股票下跌，b
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