美联储按兵不动但措辞鹰派，DWS看好德国基建与防御板块
Fed Holds Rates With a Hawkish Edge
美联储决议落地且释放关键前瞻指引（鹰派暂停+主席更替信号），直接影响全球资产定价逻辑；同时提供DWS对欧洲实体经济的最新配置观点，值得宏观与多资产投资者关注。
X THE COUNTDOWN IS ON. EVERYTHING UNIT TO GET THE EDGE OF THE END OF THE MARKET DAY. THIS IS THE CLOSE.
X 倒计时已经开始。所有单位都要争取在市场交易日结束前占据优势。这是收盘时刻。
A PAUSE, BUT NOT A PIVOT. HERE AT BLOOMBERG HEADQUARTERS IN NEW YORK, I AM ROMAINE BOSTICK COUNTING YOU DOWN TO THE CLOSE. COMING OFF OF THE LATEST DECISION BY THE U.S. FEDERAL RESERVE. THE FOMC HOLDING RATES TO 4%. ONE MEETING AFTER THE SEPTEMBER HIKE WHILE UPGRADING ITS DESCRIPTION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH TO A STRONG PACE AND REPEATING THAT INFLATION REMAINS ELEVATED. MARKETS ARE TREATING THAT AS A HOLD WITH A HAWKISH EDGE.
暂停，但不是转向。在纽约的彭博总部，我是罗梅恩·博斯蒂克，为您倒数至收盘。背景是美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）的最新决定。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）将利率维持在4%不变，这是在9月加息后的下一次会议，同时将经济增长描述升级为“强劲”，并重申通胀仍然高企。市场将此解读为维持现状但带有鹰派倾向。
NO MAJOR SURPRISE. NO MAJOR MOVES IN THE MARKET. A STOCKS PAIRING UP EARLIER GAINS. LONGER-TERM TREASURY YIELDS ELEVATED THE TWO-YEAR YIELD LOWER. THE DOLLAR FLAT. A BIG QUESTION WHETHER IT IS AN EVERY OTHER MEETING HIKING CYCLE OR HIGHER BOND YIELDS AND TIGHTER FINANCIAL CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DOING ENOUGH OF THE FED'S WORK TO LET IT WAIT. LISA COOK AND BETH HAMMACK SAW ANOTHER QUARTER-POINT INCREASE TODAY. THE INTERNAL DEBATE IS NOT WHETHER INFLATION IS A PROBLEM, BUT HOW QUICKLY THE FED NEEDS TO RESPOND.
没有重大意外。市场没有大幅波动。股市回吐了早前的涨幅。长期国债收益率走高，两年期收益率走低。美元持平。一个关键问题是：这是否是每隔一次会议就加息的周期？还是说更高的债券收益率和更紧的金融条件已经足以让美联储的工作事半功倍，从而让它得以等待？丽莎·库克和贝丝·哈马克今天看到了另一次25个基点的加息。内部争论的焦点不是通胀是否是个问题，而是美联储需要多快做出回应。
CHAIR KEVIN WARSH TRIED TO SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE SAYING THE POLICY IS BEGINNING TO WORK AND HE WORKED TO TRY TO -- TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONS AND MOVED THE CONVERSATION. HE ALSO SAID THERE ARE NO FIRM CONCLUSIONS ABOUT THE NEXT POLICY MOVE. TRANSLATE THAT FOR WHAT YOU WILL. SOME SEE DECEMBER AS LIVE WITH THE FED NOT PROMISING ANYTHING YET. HERE IS THE FED CHAIR.
主席凯文·沃什试图折中调和，表示政策开始见效，他致力于推动更紧的信贷条件并引导舆论。他还表示，对于下一次政策行动尚无定论。请自行解读。一些人认为12月是可能的选项，但美联储尚未承诺任何事情。以下是美联储主席。
WE BELIEVE EIGHT MEETINGS PER YEAR IS THE RIGHT NUMBER. BUT IN 2027, ONE MEETING WILL FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON BROAD MONETARY POLICY STRATEGY. WITH EITHER A VOTE ON THE FEDERAL FUNDS RATE OR POLICY STATEMENT WE ANTICIPATED. ON THE EMPLOYMENT SIDE OF THE DUAL MANDATE, CONDITIONS ARE QUITE POSITIVE. YET AMERICANS ARE STILL DEALING WITH INFLATION THAT HAS BEEN RUNNING ABOVE THE COMMITTEE'S OBJECTIVE CLOSE TO SIX YEARS. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS, THE OVERWHELMING JUDGMENT IS THAT WHAT WE HAVE DONE IN THIS MONETARY MEDICINE IS STARTING TO WORK SOME, BUT THERE IS NO FIRM CONCLUSION.
我们认为每年举行八次会议是合适的数量。但在2027年，其中一次会议将专门聚焦于广泛的货币政策战略。无论是针对联邦基金利率的投票还是政策声明，我们都已有所预期。在双重使命的就业方面，情况相当积极。然而，美国人仍在应对持续高于委员会目标近六年的通胀。压倒性的共识、压倒性的判断是：我们目前的货币药方已开始产生部分效果，但尚无定论。
WE WILL DELIVER PRICE STABILITY. THAT CONTINUES TO BE THE CASE.
我们将实现物价稳定。这一情况仍在持续。
FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH AS WE COUNT YOU DOWN TO THE CLOSING BELLS. WE WANT TO BRING IN THE CEO OF DWS AMERICA'S. GREAT TO SEE YOU HERE IN STUDIO. I WANT TO START OFF NOT JUST WHAT KEVIN WARSH SAID, BUT SOMETHING HE ALLUDED TO AT THE LAST MEETING. THIS IDEA OF HAVING GUIDANCE -- NOT GUIDANCE, HAVING A LITTLE BIT MORE JUDGMENT AND WHAT THE FED DOES AND WHEN THEY DO IT. AS AN INVESTOR, YOU HEAR ALL THESE OTHER FED MEMBERS, ARE YOU GETTING ENOUGH CLARITY ON WHAT THEY ARE DOING?
美联储主席凯文·沃什，随着我们倒数至收盘钟声敲响。我们要请出DWS America的首席执行官。很高兴在演播室见到你。我想从凯文·沃什所说的内容开始，以及他在上次会议上暗示的内容。关于提供指引的想法——不是指引，而是更多地运用判断力，了解美联储做什么以及何时做。作为投资者，你听到所有这些其他美联储成员的声音，你是否对他们正在做的事情有足够的清晰认识？
OF THE I LOOK AT IT IS FED PASTA THE RATE, NOT THE FIGHT. HEADLINE INFLATION IS AT 3.7. MOST OF THEM IS OIL. THE CORE IS CREEPING UP AROUND 2.6. THE FED CANNOT POP OIL, BUT WE CAN STOP IT FROM BECOMING EXPECTATIONS. THAT IS THE JOB NOW. FED SETS THE SHORT END, THE LONG END STILL DEPENDS ON DEBT, DOUBT, AND DATA CENTERS.
我看待的方式是美联储设定利率，而非战斗。 headline通胀率为3.7%。其中大部分是石油。核心通胀率在2.6%左右缓慢上升。美联储无法消除石油价格的影响，但我们可以阻止其成为预期。这是现在的任务。美联储设定短期端利率，长期端仍取决于债务、怀疑和数据中心。
OF THE LONG END OF THE CURVE, WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS A DIFFERENT STORY THAN THE SHORTER END OF THE CURVE. I ASSUME YOU HAVE TO BRIDGE THE GAP?
收益率曲线长期端的情况，与我们看到的短期端不同。我假设你需要弥合这一差距吗？
ABSOLUTELY. FOR THE PAST 15 YEARS, WE HAD RATES THAT ENDED UP -- UNTIL RECENTLY, THE EQUITY MARKETS WERE DANCING LIKE TEENAGERS. THE FIXED INCOME AND BOND MARKET WAS SENDING SOBERING MESSAGES. NOW INVESTORS ARE GETTING PAID TO BE PATIENT. CASH PAYS. BONDS PAY. ORCHID FLOWS OF ABOUT 14 BILLION EUROS INTO OUR CASH PRODUCTS. BUT WE NEED TO BE CAREFUL. CASH IS ACTUALLY THE WAITING ROOM, NOT THE STRATEGY. I DO TWO THINGS, INVEST IN QUALITY INCOME.
绝对如此。在过去15年里，我们的利率最终导致——直到最近，股市像青少年一样跳舞。固定收益和债券市场发送着清醒的信息。现在投资者因耐心而获得回报。现金有收益。债券有收益。约有140亿欧元的Orchid资金流入我们的现金产品。但我们必须小心。现金实际上是候诊室，而不是策略。我做两件事：投资优质收入。
AND DIVERSIFY FROM THE ONE BAD INDEX. GEOGRAPHICAL DIVERSIFICATION IS EXACTLY THAT. IT IS NOT BET AGAINST ONE COUNTRY OR THE U.S., IT IS THE BEST FOR RESILIENCE.
并从单一糟糕的指数中分散风险。地理多样化正是如此。它不是对抗某个国家或美国，而是为了韧性。
DIVERSIFICATION ALONG THE TREASURY CURVE, WHICH WOULD PUT SOME MONEY SOMEWHERE ALONG THAT CURVE IN A MEANINGFUL WAY?
沿着国债收益率曲线进行多样化，这将把一些资金有意义地分配到该曲线的某个位置吗？
I WOULD SAY BE CAUTIOUS. LET'S WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE BOND MARKET IS GOING TO DO OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
我会说保持谨慎。让我们等待观察债券市场在未来几天将如何表现。
WHERE DO YOU FIND DIVERSIFICATION? YOU SAID GEOGRAPHICALLY.
你在哪里找到多样化？你说的是地理上的。
7500 IS A BRILLIANT BET ON THE DIGITAL ECONOMY. BUT EUROPE IS A GREAT BET ON PHYSICAL ONE. BANKS, INDUSTRIALS, DEFENSE, ENERGY. AND AS I MENTIONED, YOU'RE UP FOR THE FIRST TIME IS ACTUALLY SPENDING ON ITSELF. GERMANY ANNOUNCED THEY ARE PUTTING IN 500 BILLION EUROS IN INFRASTRUCTURE, DEFENSE SPEND WILL BE ABOVE 3.5 PERCENT OF GDP BY 2029. WHEN YOU HAD THE PENSION REFORM THAT WILL BECOME LIVE IN JANUARY, THAT IS A STORY TO WATCH BECAUSE GERMANY IS KNOWN FOR THEIR SAVERS, THEY WILL BE INVESTORS.
7500是对数字经济的精彩押注。但欧洲是对实体经济的绝佳押注。银行、工业、国防、能源。正如我所提到的，你首次上涨实际上是因为自己在支出。德国宣布将在基础设施上投入5000亿欧元，到2029年国防支出将占GDP的3.5%以上。当你看到将于一月生效的养老金改革时，这是一个值得关注的故事，因为德国人以储蓄者著称，他们将成为投资者。
THEY WILL LEARN TO INVEST. WE ARE VERY BULLISH IN GERMANY.
他们将学会投资。我们对德国非常看好。
IT IS YOUR MARKET. STRONG, SOME OF IN THE NATIONS SURROUNDING IT ARE NOT SO STRONG. ANY OTHER DEVELOPMENTS WE HAVE SEEN FROM FRANCE, ITALY, ETC., DOES IT ALTER YOUR VIEW?
这是您的市场。强劲，但该国周边的一些国家并不那么强劲。我们从法国、意大利等地看到的任何其他发展会改变您的看法吗？
NOT YET. WE THINK IT IS CONFINED AND A LOT OF THE ELECTIONS ARE PLAYING INTO IT. BUT WE ARE WATCHFUL. WE DO NOT REACT. WE HAVE LONG VIEWS.
尚未。我们认为这局限于此，许多选举正在影响它。但我们在密切关注。我们没有反应。我们着眼长远。
I'M CURIOUS ABOUT YOUR FLOWS, ALONG GOING INTO CASH. AND THE AMERICAS I SAW SOMETHING LIKE 10.5 BILLION EUROS COMING IN. A LOT OF THAT WAS IN CASH AND SHORT-TERM INSTRUMENTS.
我对您的资金流向感到好奇，特别是流入现金的部分。我看到美洲地区有大约 105 亿欧元的资金流入。其中大部分是现金和短期工具。
I THINK WE HAD AN AMAZING REPORT TODAY. WE HAD ABOUT 30.9 BILLION EUROS FOR THE QUARTER, 66.7 YEAR TO DATE. THAT IS MORE THAN IN ANY FULL YEAR WE HAD SINCE OUR IPO. FOR THE U.S. BUSINESSES IT IS ALSO VERY EXCITING AS WELL. CERTAINLY WE TOLD THEM MARKET ARE PERFORMANCE FEES CAME EARLY ON THIS YEAR. BUT IT IS THE MANAGEMENT FEES THAT COMPOUND. UP OVER THE NINE MONTHS WITH THE COST BEING DOWN, I WILL TAKE THESE KIND OF QUARTERLY RESULTS ANY DAY.
我认为我们今天有一份令人惊叹的报告。本季度我们有约 309 亿欧元，年初至今为 667 亿欧元。这比我们自首次公开募股（IPO）以来的任何完整年份都要多。对于美国业务来说，这也非常令人兴奋。当然，我们告诉过他们，市场表现费在今年早些时候就已经产生。但管理费是复利计算的。九个月内增长，而成本下降，我随时愿意接受这类季度业绩结果。
WHAT EXACTLY IS DWS AND DWS AMERICA TRYING TO BE? MOST WANT TO PASS STRATEGIES. WE SEE OUTFLOWS IN ACTIVE STRATEGIES. YOUR FLAGSHIP I THINK NOW IS HIGHER IN TERMS OF HIS ACCESS -- IT'S ASSETS.
DWS 和 DWS America 究竟想成为什么？大多数人都希望传递策略。我们看到主动型策略出现资金流出。您目前的旗舰产品在资产获取方面我认为更高——即其资产。
IF YOU REMEMBER OUR EARLIER CONVERSATIONS, THAT IS WHY WE ARE BETTING. AND GATEWAY TO EUROPE IS EXACTLY HOW WE ARE PLAYING IT. OVER THIS YEAR, WE EXPANDED OUR CAPABILITIES IN OUR CURRENCY HEDGE PRODUCTS AND PRODUCTS THAT FOCUSED ON GLOBAL AND INTERNATIONAL INVESTING. THAT IS WHY WE KNOW EUROPE AND INTERNATIONAL CLIENTS. WE HAVE ACCESS TO EVERY SINGLE REGION WITH INVESTORS ON THE GROUND.
如果您还记得我们之前的对话，这就是我们要下注的原因。通往欧洲的桥梁正是我们的玩法。今年，我们扩大了货币对冲产品以及专注于全球和国际投资产品的能力。这就是为什么我们了解欧洲和国际客户。我们通过在地投资者接触每一个单一地区。
THERE WERE FLOWS INTO ONE OF YOUR MAIN HIGH-YIELD PRODUCTS. DOES IT SUGGEST MORE RISK APPETITE THAN WHAT THE CASH TIED WOULD SAY?
资金流入了您主要的高收益产品之一。这表明风险偏好比现金挂钩所暗示的更高吗？
YES. I THINK INVESTORS, THEIR RISK IS RETURNING A BIT. THAT IS A POSITIVE. ALSO IN THE U.S., WE HAVE A STRONG REAL ASSET INFRASTRUCTURE AND REAL ESTATE BUSINESS. I'M BEGINNING TO SEE INTEREST DESPITE THE RATES HALTING.
是的。我认为投资者的风险承受能力正在略有恢复。这是一个积极的信号。此外，在美国，我们拥有强大的实物资产基础设施和房地产业务。尽管利率停滞不前，我开始看到兴趣所在。
DWS AMERICA WHICH YOU ARE GOING THROUGH ANOTHER REBRANDING BEGINNING NEXT MONTH. WHAT DOES IT SIGNAL? IS IT LESS UN-AMERICAN STORY?
您即将在下个月开始对 DWS America 进行另一轮品牌重塑。这释放了什么信号？这是否意味着更少‘非美国’的故事？
NO. I'M EXCITED. IN 2018, DWS MADE SENSE. THEY ARE ACTIVE BRAND AND IT WILL STAY AS SUCH. BUT LOOK WHAT HAPPENED OVER EIGHT YEARS. 12 POINT 2 TRILLION EUROS AND ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT. WE MORE THAN QUADRUPLED ASSETS. WE EXPANDED CAPABILITIES ACROSS ALTERNATIVES, REAL ESTATE, PRIVATE CREDIT, AND BRINGING THAT UNDER ONE NAME, DEUTSCHE ASSET MANAGEMENT SIGNALS OUR HERITAGE, WHICH IS GERMAN. IT WILL BE FANTASTIC. I'M LOOKING FORWARD TO NOVEMBER.
不。我很兴奋。在 2018 年，DWS 是有意义的。它是一个活跃的品牌，并将继续保持如此。但看看八年来发生了什么。管理资产达到 12.2 万亿欧元。我们的资产增加了四倍以上。我们在另类投资、房地产、私人信贷等领域扩大了能力，并将这些整合到一个名称下，即 Deutsche Asset Management，这标志着我们的德裔遗产。这将非常棒。我期待着十一月。
GREAT TO HAVE YOU HERE, WE WILL TALK AGAIN SOON. THE CEO OF DWS AMERICAS AS WE KEEP THE CONVERSATION GOING. WE WANT TO BRING IN THE PROFESSOR OF PUBLIC POLICY AND ECONOMICS AT STONY BROOK UNIVERSITY. I WANT TO BRIDGE THE GAP TO SOMETHING APPS AND WAS GETTING ON, THIS IDEA OF A DIVERSIFICATION THAT WE HAVE SEEN GEOGRAPHICALLY AND WHERE PEOPLE ARE PUTTING THEIR MONEY. THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT LOOK AT WHAT IS GOING ON IN THE U.S., WHETHER IT IS WHERE INFLATION IS, FED RATES, AND THE DISCONNECT BETWEEN THOSE TWO COMBINED WITH THE FISCAL SITUATION IN WASHINGTON.
很高兴您能来到这里，我们将很快再次交谈。DWS美洲的首席执行官将继续我们的对话。我们要请入石溪大学公共政策与经济学教授。我想将话题引向Apps正在讨论的内容，即我们在地域上看到的多元化趋势，以及人们资金流向的分布。许多人关注美国的情况，无论是通胀水平、美联储利率，还是这两者结合与美国华盛顿财政状况之间的脱节。
DO YOU SEE ANY POTENTIAL IMPROVEMENT FOR OUR POLICY SITUATION RELATIVE TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?
您是否认为相对于世界其他地区，我们的政策局势有改善的可能？
WHEN YOU SAY IMPROVEMENT, I ASSUME YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT THE FISCAL OUTLOOK. I WOULD JUST POINT OUT IF YOU LOOK AT THE U.S. ECONOMY, WE ARE GROWING FASTER THAN ALL OF OUR PEER COUNTRIES IN THE G7. THERE IS NO QUESTION, WE ARE THE BEST PERFORMING ECONOMY IN THE BUNCH. SOME MIGHT SAY IN SPITE OF THE DEFICIT AND THE FISCAL OUTLOOK, SOME MIGHT SAY THAT HAS SOMETHING TO DO WITH IT
当您提到“改善”时，我假设您指的是财政前景。我只想指出，如果您观察美国经济，其增长速度超过G7所有其他成员国。毫无疑问，我们是表现最好的经济体。有些人可能会说，尽管存在赤字和财政前景不佳的问题，但这可能与此有关。
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力