黑五促销数据：获客增量能否抵消LTV折损

With the holidays around the corner, we all get the itch to plan seasonal offers and big discounts.

It’s hard not to when it feels like every competitor is doing the same.

For subscription apps, there’s more to consider than sales. Discount an annual plan, and you’re accepting less revenue for a year. Offer a cheaper first month, and some subscribers may leave when the price goes up.

Does that mean holiday offers are too risky? Not necessarily. But they do require planning.

We analyzed nearly 5,000 apps worldwide during the 2025–26 holiday season to help you decide when to run a promotion and how to assess its results.

The research compares changes in new paying customers around Black Friday, Christmas, and New Year for apps with and without detected promotions. It also looks at what those buyers spent over six months, their renewals and refunds, and how apps presented their holiday offers.

Summary

• Apps with detected Black Friday promotions get more new paying customers and higher six-month revenue than in their September 15–October 12 baseline. Revenue per customer is lower, but the median app makes up for it with a larger customer base.
• Existing free users play a substantial role in Black Friday growth. Among apps with detected promotions, users who installed the app more than three months before their first payment account for about half the average increase in new paying customers.
• Christmas-only promotions show no clear acquisition advantage. Apps with offers detected only at Christmas perform similarly to apps without detected offers.
• New Year and January lead the holiday season for new paying customers, particularly in Health & Fitness and Gaming. Apps with detected New Year promotions get 14% more new paying customers per day than in September–October, while those without detected promotions get 4% fewer.
• Holiday paywalls put savings and urgency front and center. Discount claims, crossed-out prices, and limited-time messaging are common, and more paywalls show a single plan.

Holiday acquisition is lower overall, but apps with offers tend to perform better

Over the holidays, most app categories get fewer new paying customers than in their September 15–October 12 baseline. Even New Year and January, the strongest stretch of the season, come in slightly below it for the median app (3% fewer new paying customers per day).

Part of that dip comes from the baseline itself. Mid-September to mid-October is a strong stretch for new paying customers, so even ordinary weeks right after it are about 6% below. The 2024–25 season shows the same pattern.

Ad costs may also play a part. One analysis of large US Meta ad accounts found that CPMs for apps and services rose sharply around Black Friday, peaked in mid-December, and dropped below October levels in January. Higher ad prices can make new users more expensive to acquire in the run-up to Christmas.

Around New Year, new paying customers briefly rise above the September–October baseline. The peak doesn’t last, so the full period still comes out below it.

The two exceptions are Health & Fitness and Gaming, which stay above baseline across New Year and January (11% and 10% more new paying customers per day).

That’s likely when demand peaks for both: New Year resolutions for fitness apps, and new devices and time off for games.

But overall, the typical app gets fewer new paying customers per day than during that earlier period.

However, if we look at apps with detected promotions (421 at Black Friday, 208 at Christmas, and 236 at New Year), the picture changes.

During Black Friday and New Year, apps with detected promotions tend to perform better.

Black Friday shows the widest gap. During Black Friday week (November 24–December 1), the median app with a detected promotion gets 20% more new paying customers per day than in its baseline, while the median app without one gets 16% fewer. New Year and January follow the same pattern on a smaller scale: 14% more versus 4% fewer.

That said, Christmas shows a smaller gap.

Apps with detected Christmas promotions get 11% fewer new paying customers, while those without get 22% fewer. Most of that difference comes from apps that were also running promotions during Black Friday. Apps with promotions detected only at Christmas show no clear advantage.

We compare apps where we detect a promotion with those where we don’t. Most signals come from purchases, so offers with few or no sales can go undetected. Apps flagged only by holiday wording on their paywall, the one signal that doesn’t need sales, were 2% below baseline duringBlack Friday. Apps that run promotions may also spend more on ads. The results describe these two groups, rather than predict how much a discount would increase your sales.

More Black Friday buyers make up for lower revenue per buyer

Among apps with detected promotions, the increase in new paying customers during Black Friday and Cyber Monday appears large enough to make up for lower revenue per buyer over six months.

During November 24–December 1, 2025, these apps get 20% more new paying customers per day than in September–October.

Most of the extra customers are acquired in the five days from Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday. New paying customers peak on Black Friday (November 28) at 49% above baseline and stay at least 25% above it through Cyber Monday (December 1).

Each Black Friday buyer is worth a little less, but the extra buyers make up for it. Over the next six months, the median app earns 8% less revenue per buyer.

For the median app, buyers acquired on an average sale day generate 12% more revenue over six months than buyers acquired on an average baseline day. Overall, 60% of apps come out ahead.

That gain is limited to the sale week. Once the quieter weeks around it are included (November 10–December 14), the median app with a detected promotion is 1% below its baseline, versus 12% below for apps without one.

About half of Black Friday growth comes from existing free users

For apps with detected promotions, about half of the Black Friday increase came from people who’d had the app for over three months.

Black Friday buyers also look different from usual. During Black Friday week, 55% of these apps’ new paying customers had installed the app at least a day before paying, up from 45% in September–October.

So if you’re planning a Black Friday offer, don’t focus only on new installs. Some of the opportunity may already be in your free user base.

Black Friday offers also reach current and lapsed subscribers. In 9% of apps with detected promotions, these subscribers redeem at least three times as many offers per day as in September–October.

Annual plans account for nearly half of new paying customers

More Black Friday buyers start on an annual plan.

For apps with detected promotions, 49% of new paying customers bought an annual plan during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, up from 41% in September–October, mostly at the expense of monthly plans.

So far, Black Friday buyers on weekly and monthly plans renew about as often as usual. Weekly renewal rates change by less than one percentage point, while monthly second renewals are two percentage points lower.

Annual plan buyers look stable too, at least early on. Fewer of them request a refund within 30 days (2.7%, down from 4%), and auto-renew cancellations in the first 30 days don’t increase. Whether they renew is still an open question: their first renewal falls outside our six-month follow-up.

Utilities and Health & Fitness show the largest acquisition gains

The Black Friday gap varies widely by category. Among apps with detected promotions, Utilities and Health & Fitness get 46% and 37% more new paying customers per day than in their baseline, while Education and Social & Lifestyle stay roughly level.