Kalshi预测市场：俄亥俄州长Acton胜率升至76%

Ohio Republican candidates face another problem beyond competitive polls: prediction market traders increasingly bet against them.

Democrat Amy Acton is now trading at 76% to win the governor’s race on Kalshi, compared with 24% for Vivek Ramaswamy. Trading volume has reached $3.6 million.

That is an eight-percentage-point increase from the 68% probability recorded in DeFi Rate reporting last week, when the market had $2.6 million in volume. Another $1 million has traded as Acton’s advantage has widened.

The shift comes as Ramaswamy faces a backlash, including from some Republicans, over a campaign ad featuring Acton’s estranged mother. Vice President JD Vance defended the party’s focus on winning Wednesday, saying he was “disgusted” by Republicans criticizing the advertisement.

Available market snapshots show Acton’s position has strengthened since last week. They don't show how much of that shift came after the ad, or whether the controversy caused it.

A personal attack divides Republicans

The Ramaswamy campaign’s ad features Acton’s mother accusing her daughter of being a “liar” and saying “my daughter needs help.”

Ramaswamy acknowledged Tuesday that his campaign produced the advertisement.

Acton’s brother responded with a statement and video saying that he and Acton had been estranged from their mother for years because she remained married to the man who sexually abused Acton as a child. Acton was removed from her mother’s care at age 12, context the campaign ad did not include, according to The Hill.

Democrats and some Republicans condemned the ad, with critics urging Ramaswamy to change course. Instead, Axios reported Tuesday that his campaign would spend $4 million airing it statewide.

Vance pushed back against the Republican criticism at a Wednesday press conference.

“Whether the ad was appropriate or not is not really my concern,” he said. “What is my concern is who is going to govern the next generation of American government, who is going to win the Senate race in the state of Ohio, who is going to win the governor’s race in the state of Ohio?”

His message to fellow Republicans was blunt: “Stop whining about an advertisement and go win the race in 13 days.”

Traders grow more confident in Acton

Last week, Ramaswamy had a favorable survey to point to. An Oct. 5-6 poll put him ahead 45% to 43%, interrupting a run of surveys favoring Acton. But the two-point advantage fell within the poll’s margin of error, while a CNN/SSRS survey released the same day showed Acton leading 50% to 42%.

The market never made Ramaswamy the prediction markets favorite. Now it has moved further away from him.

The latest Hill report also said Acton’s polling lead has expanded. Decision Desk HQ gives her a 60% chance of winning, making Kalshi’s current assessment substantially more favorable to the Democrat. Those are different forecasting approaches, not directly comparable measures of voter support.

At 76%, Acton is a clear market favorite, not a guaranteed winner. The price still leaves roughly a one-in-four chance of a Ramaswamy victory.

Brown gives Republicans a second defensive fight

The governor’s race is not Ohio’s only statewide contest where traders favor the Democrat.

Former Sen. Sherrod Brown is trading at 67% to win the Senate race on Kalshi, with $8.2 million in volume. Brown faces Republican Sen. Jon Husted.

Brown’s market has attracted more than twice the volume of the governor’s race. Together, the two markets have recorded $11.8 million in trading, though that reflects trading activity, not how much money is currently at risk or how many distinct traders are involved.

The two probabilities also should not be read as the chance of a Democratic sweep. They price separate outcomes, and the same turnout patterns or political developments could affect both races.

Republicans were already working to shore up the state before the ad controversy. As DeFi Rate previously reported, President Donald Trump campaigned for Ramaswamy, while Vance urged voters to support both Ramaswamy and Husted. Recent CNN and New York Times/Siena surveys have also shown Brown ahead.

Red state advantage is not carrying the ticket

Ohio backed Trump by 11 points in 2024. Yet traders now favor Democrats for both the governor’s mansion and the Senate seat, a striking assessment of a state Republicans have increasingly counted on.

Acton is running for the open seat being vacated by Gov. Mike DeWine. A former state health director who served under the Republican governor, she has emphasized that experience as evidence she can work across party lines. A victory would make her the first Democrat to win an Ohio gubernatorial election since Ted Strickland in 2006.

Vance’s response to the ad controversy frames the closing stretch as a turnout fight: whatever Republicans think of the campaign’s tactics, he wants them focused on electing the ticket.