摩根大通十年预测比特币年化10%及Solana商业票据发行
They Lied To You About Bitcoin, Now They are Lying About Ethereum & Crypto
摩根大通首份长期回报预测提供了机构对加密资产的量化基准,Solana上的商业票据发行验证了公链在传统金融结算中的实际落地能力,均为值得关注的结构性进展。
Bitcoin itself is a is a hyped up fraud. It's just not a real thing and eventually it'll be it'll be the emperor without clothes.
比特币本身就是一个被过度炒作的骗局。它根本不存在,最终它会像那个没穿衣服的皇帝一样。
I've always been deeply opposed to crypto, Bitcoin, etc. If I was the government, I'd close it down.
我一直强烈反对加密货币、比特币等。如果我是政府,我会将其取缔。
Breaking news. JP Morgan now sees Bitcoin having better returns than stocks, bonds, and gold over the next 10 years. This is the first time that JP Morgan has ever put out a long-term forecast for Bitcoin, and it is strong. They see an investment of cash over the next 10 years yielding about 3.2% compounded return. They see the stock market large caps returning 7.5%. Small caps returning 7.7%. Gold having a compounded return of about 5.5%.
突发新闻。摩根大通现在认为,在未来10年内,比特币的回报率将优于股票、债券和黄金。这是摩根大通首次发布比特币的长期预测,且观点非常强劲。他们认为,未来10年持有现金的复合收益率约为3.2%。他们预计大型股回报率为7.5%,小型股回报率为7.7%,黄金的复合收益率约为5.5%。
Real estate returning about 8.2% over the next 10 years. And Bitcoin returning 10% annually over the next 10 years, beating every other asset class. And why does this report matter? Well, it's because JP Morgan Asset Management manages $4.8 trillion. The report covers 200 plus assets, meaning pension funds, advisers, and consultants use it to plan long-term portfolios. And while they're not saying that it's not risky, they're saying it is risky.
房地产在未来10年的回报率约为8.2%。而比特币在未来10年的年回报率将达到10%,超越所有其他资产类别。这份报告为何重要?因为摩根大通资产管理公司管理着4.8万亿美元的资金。该报告涵盖了200多种资产,意味着养老基金、顾问和咨询公司利用它来规划长期投资组合。虽然他们并未否认风险,但他们承认这确实存在风险。
It comes with the highest volatility. If JP Morgan is correct in giving Bitcoin a 10% compounded annual growth rate, Kagger for the next decade, and by the way, that's their base case, this would mean about $214,000 per Bitcoin in 2036. And really, it's not what the biggest financial institution in the world just said about Bitcoin. It's what they say about Ethereum, Solana, and a few other altcoins. Watch today's whole video so you understand everything because this is the first real cycle that Wall Street and institutional money is is trading crypto differently.
它伴随着最高的波动性。如果摩根大通对比特币未来十年复合年增长率为10%的判断是正确的(顺便说一下,这是他们的基准情景),那么到2036年,每枚比特币的价格将达到约214,000美元。但真正重要的不是这家全球最大的金融机构对比特币说了什么,而是他们对以太坊、Solana和其他一些山寨币的看法。请观看今天的完整视频,以便全面了解情况,因为这是华尔街和机构资金以不同方式交易加密货币的第一个真正周期。
This is absolutely insane for Soul. Solana has executed over 50% as a share of total NASDAQ trades every day for 2 months. And I would expect this trend to continue, right? Solana, better rails, better technology, bringing real money and real people on chain. And in less than 24 hours, Sana's biggest upgrade ever called Alpenlow goes live mainet on Wednesday. And that's where finality drops from about 12.8 seconds per transaction to 150 milliseconds.
这对Soul来说简直疯狂。在过去两个月里,Solana每天的交易量占纳斯达克总交易量的比例超过50%。我预计这一趋势将持续下去,对吧?Solana拥有更好的底层架构和更先进的技术,正在将真正的资金和真实用户引入链上。在不到24小时内,Solana有史以来最大的升级“Alpenlow”将于周三在主网上线。届时,交易的最终确认时间将从每笔交易约12.8秒缩短至150毫秒。
So Lana is about to get a lot faster. And we understand that cryptocoin crypto platform Hyperlquid, one of the gems of this cycle, serious major players are starting to integrate with them. Not compete with them, integrate with them. As explained by co-founder and CEO Jeff Yan,
因此,Solana即将变得更快。我们了解到,加密平台Hyperlquid——本周期中的一颗明珠——正开始受到严肃的主要玩家的整合,而非竞争。正如联合创始人兼首席执行官Jeff Yan所解释的那样,
when you view Hyperlquid for what the protocol really is, it's not trying to compete with anyone that you've any of the companies that you've mentioned or I really just think any company at all. It's really just meant to be a tool like a layer which companies can adopt. Like no one's competing with the internet, right? It's just like you're using the internet. It's just it's a tool, right?
当你把 Hyperliquid 视为它真正是什么的协议时,它并不是在试图与你提到的任何公司或我真的认为的任何公司竞争。它真的只是被设计成一种像层一样的工具,供公司采用。就像没有人会与互联网竞争,对吧?你只是在用互联网。它只是一个工具,对吧?
Take like, you know, Robin Hood or Kelchi. They're putting out PERPS, but they're doing it in this very vertically integrated way. They like own the user through the full stack. And when you just to really like visualize this, Hyperlid has this infrastructure layer with builder codes, we now you have frontends like Valor, which we should actually talk about, Valor, MetaMask, Phantom, you know, FOMO, and all these companies don't have to build this underlying infrastructure.
比如,你知道 Robinhood 或 Coinbase 吗?它们正在推出永续合约(PERPS),但它们是以这种非常垂直整合的方式进行的。它们通过全栈拥有用户。当你真正想象这一点时,Hyperliquid 拥有这个基础设施层和构建者代码,我们现在有前端如 Valor,我们应该谈谈 Valor、MetaMask、Phantom、FOMO 等,所有这些公司都不需要构建这个底层基础设施。
They just plug into this best-in-class Unix primitive.
它们只需接入这个一流的 Unix 原语。
And if you're bullish on Hyperlid, I think you'll be bullish on this. I want to invite you to trade with me. This is through channel exchange partner liquid trading. And what I like about liquid, they are non-custodial, meaning they're built on Hyperlid, meaning you control your private keys, you control your coins. You're not handing your coins over to an exchange. I call liquid trading sort of the everything exchange because I can trade stocks, I can trade crypto, of course, I can trade commodities, I can trade prediction markets, I can even trade perks on private companies like Anthropic and like OpenAI before they go public.
如果你看好 Hyperliquid,我认为你会看好这一点。我想邀请你与我一起交易。这是通过渠道交换合作伙伴 Liquid Trading。我喜欢 Liquid 的地方在于,它们是非托管的,意味着它们建立在 Hyperliquid 上,意味着你控制自己的私钥,你控制自己的币。你不是把你的币交给交易所。我称 Liquid Trading 为‘全能交易所’,因为我可以交易股票,当然可以交易加密货币,我可以交易大宗商品,我可以交易预测市场,我甚至可以交易像 Anthropic 和 OpenAI 这样的私人公司的永续合约,甚至在它们上市之前。
Now, here's the thing. Hyperlid doesn't have its own app. I love the liquid app, meaning I just love the UX UI. And on nights and on weekends as news stories break, maybe on SpaceX, I'm able to trade. Everybody else is asleep, I have an edge. Use code altcoin daily to unlock a bonus as well as 10% off fees forever for your lifetime. Link down below. Check it out. And also understand that Bitcoin seems to be breaking away from Tradfi, tech stocks, the NASDAQ, decorrelating, which is much better.
现在,这里是关键。Hyperliquid 没有自己的应用程序。我喜欢 Liquid 的应用程序,意味着我只是喜欢用户体验界面。在晚上和周末,当新闻故事出现时,也许是 SpaceX,我能够交易。其他人都在睡觉,我有优势。使用代码 altcoin daily 解锁奖金以及终身10%的费用折扣。链接在下面。去看看。还要理解比特币似乎正在与传统金融、科技股、纳斯达克脱钩,去相关化,这要好得多。
BTC continues to outperform NASDAQ, now up 40% since late June. This matches what we saw in early bull run in 2023 when BTC outperformed the index for nearly 6 months off the lows through a rocky macro period back then. Inflation, war, rate hikes, just like today. But really, that was the early bull phase back in 23. And the market view is often that BTC is just lever NASDAQ. But that's not always the case. In 2023, it started to decouple.
比特币持续跑赢纳斯达克,自6月下旬以来已上涨40%。这与我们在2023年牛市初期的观察一致:当时在经历了一段动荡的宏观时期后,比特币从低点反弹并跑赢指数近6个月。当时的情况与今天类似,包括通胀、战争和加息。但事实上,那是2023年的早期牛市阶段。市场观点往往认为比特币只是纳斯达克的杠杆替代品。但事实并非总是如此。在2023年,它开始脱钩。
That was the early bull phase. Today, or really for the last since late June, we have started to decouple. Black Rockck continues to build products around it. Black Rockck files for another Bitcoin ETF. Ticker symbol PBIT. It will be a buffer BTC ETF, meaning you give up some of the upside gain opportunity, but you get the downside protection. And notice the world domination Black Rockck likes to do with pristine assets or just assets that they see a lot of upside in.
那是早期的牛市阶段。而今天,或者说自6月下旬以来,我们已经开始脱钩。贝莱德(BlackRock)继续围绕其构建产品。贝莱德提交了另一只比特币ETF的申请,代码为PBIT。这将是一只缓冲型比特币ETF,意味着你放弃部分上行收益机会,但获得下行保护。请注意贝莱德喜欢在其青睐的优质资产或他们认为具有大量上行空间的资产上进行的“全球统治”式操作。
Number one, corner the market. Number two, launch more products just like this. Breaking news. Switzerland approves its first retail spot Bitcoin ETF. This is huge. This means 3.5 million potential new investors. More pools of capital, more major new buyers continue to open up. and Bit Tensor Tow has an upgrade. Click the like button if you're getting value in this video. I would appreciate it. It helps me grow as a channel.
第一,垄断市场。第二,推出更多此类产品。突发新闻:瑞士批准了其首只零售现货比特币ETF。这意义重大。这意味着350万潜在的新投资者。更多的资金池,更多主要的新买家不断涌现。Bit Tensor Tow进行了升级。如果你喜欢本视频的内容,请点击点赞按钮。我将不胜感激,这有助于我作为频道的成长。
But introducing ETOW, a new system giving subnets control over their alpha emission split. So subnet owners and remember subnets are the early stage company companies building on the base layer of Tao. So these are early stage robotics companies, early stage AI companies can now decide how much goes to their miners, their validators and themselves based off the specific needs of their subnet. So why I like this is be is because before it was stagnant until now subnets followed the same standard allocation meaning 18% to the owner, 41% to validators and their stakers and 41% to miners.
但引入了ETOW,这是一个新系统,赋予子网对其Alpha排放分配的控制权。因此,子网所有者——请记住,子网是在Tao基础层之上构建的早期阶段公司——这些是早期阶段的机器人公司和AI公司,现在可以根据其子网的具体需求,决定有多少比例分配给矿工、验证者以及他们自己。我喜欢这一点的原因是,在此之前,直到目前为止,子网都遵循相同的标准分配,即18%归所有者,41%归验证者和质押者,41%归矿工。
That rigid split gave subnet owners no flexibility to adapt rewards to how their own subnet operated despite the very different needs of each subnet. Today, now it's customizable. It can be tailored to each specific one, which gives each individual subnet more power, more customizability. I like. And that brings us to JP Morgan and other altcoins because you know this, we actually reported this to you a few days ago that JP Morgan taps Ethereum for JPMCoin as tokenization rates race heats up.
这种僵化的分配方式使子网所有者无法根据各自子网的运营方式调整奖励,尽管每个子网的需求截然不同。如今,现在它是可定制的。它可以针对每个特定子网进行定制,从而赋予每个独立子网更多的权力、更高的可定制性。我很喜欢。这就引出了摩根大通和其他山寨币的话题,因为你知道,我们前几天实际上向你报道过,随着代币化竞赛升温,摩根大通采用以太坊发行JPMCoin。
And why this matters is because they've had JPMCoin for years, which was on a private controlled centralized blockchain. They realized they need to tap into network effect. They need to tap into liquidity to have the best chance to thrive and they chose Ethereum. This is Signal. Also, this JP Morgan arranges landmark US commercial paper issuance on Solana public blockchain for Galaxy Digital Holdings. This is major. How this affects you?
其重要性在于,摩根大通多年来一直拥有 JPMCoin,该代币运行在私有、受控的中心化区块链上。他们意识到需要借助网络效应,需要利用流动性以获得最佳的生存与发展机会,因此选择了以太坊。这是 Signal 频道。此外,摩根大通为 Galaxy Digital Holdings 在 Solana 公有区块链上安排了具有里程碑意义的美国商业票据发行。这意义重大。这将如何影响你?
How this affects Solana? Why this is significant is because the transaction completed on behalf of Galaxy which also acted as the structurer marks one of the first debt issuances ever executed on a public blockchain. Coinbase was the lead investor alongside Franklin Templeton. So don't just go off what they say, go off what they do. And we're noticing the public blockchains they are choosing to tokenize on. If you've made it this far in today's video, click subscribe, join this community, stay informed about crypto, stay informed, and like always, see you
这对 Solana 有何影响?其重要意义在于,由 Galaxy 代表执行的这笔交易(Galaxy 同时担任结构化安排方)标志着在公有区块链上执行的最早的债务发行之一。Coinbase 与富兰克林邓普顿共同担任主要投资者。因此,不要只听他们怎么说,要看他们怎么做。我们注意到他们选择进行代币化的公有区块链。如果你已经看到本期视频的这里,请点击订阅、加入本社区,持续关注加密货币动态,保持信息更新。一如既往,我们下次见
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力