GM利润预期下调股价跌7.3%，AI云IPO遇冷引发市场担忧

IF YOU’RE AN A.I. COMPANY LOOKING TO GO PUBLIC THIS YEAR, MAYBE YOU SHOULD WAIT. THAT’S THE MESSAGE FROM MARKETS THIS MORNING, 30 MINUTES UNTIL THE START OF TRADING. I’M EMILY GRAFFEO. DANI BURGER IS ON ASSIGNMENT. "BLOOMBERG OPEN INTEREST" STARTS RIGHT NOW. EMILY: G.M. TIGHTEN SAYS ITS PROFIT OUTLOOK AND UNVEILS A $20 BILLION SLAYER BUYBACK, AND DANI IS LIVE FROM CITADEL SECURITIES CONFERENCE IN DOWNTOWN NEW YORK CITY WITH SPECIAL GUESTS, INCLUDING KEN GRIFFIN.

WE’LL HEAR FROM HER SOON. BUT FIRST, STOCKS THAT I’M WATCHING THIS MORNING. WE HAVE GENERAL MOTORS LOWER IN THE PREMARKET AFTER THOSE EARNINGS, DOWN ABOUT 7.3% RIGHT NOW. WE’RE EXPECTING SOME OTHER MAJOR EARNINGS TODAY AS WELL. WE HAVE SPACEX IN THE RED, AND NETFLIX AS WELL PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED ADS INVESTORS AWAIT THOSE EARNINGS. BUT OVERALL, THE MOOD OF THE MARKET IS RISK-OFF. LET’S CHECK ON THE A.I. TRADE. ANOTHER HIT IS COMING FROM SOUTH KOREA, WHERE ELICE PLUNGED, DESPITE HUGE DEMAND FOR THE I.P.O.

THAT IS REALLY DRIVING THE TRADE THIS MORNING, AND REVERSING MUCH OF NASDAQ’S GAINS TODAY. FOR MORE, WE’RE JOINED BY "BLOOMBERG TECH" HOST ED LUDLOW. ED, WE VANITY REALLY HEARD -- HAVEN’T REALLY HEARD OF THE COMPANY. WHY IS IT DRIVING SO MUCH ACTION RIGHT NOW? WHY DO U.S. INVESTORS NEED TO PAY ATTENTION? ED: I MEAN, ANYONE OUTSIDE OF SOUTH KOREA HASN’T REALLY HEARD OF ELICE UNTIL LITERALLY THE LAST 24 HOURS, IN PART BECAUSE IT’S SMALL, IN PART BECAUSE WHAT IT DOES IS VERY SPECIFIC.

IT’S A GEO CLOUD, BUT HAS MORE PORTABLE, MODULAR DATA CENTERS. WHAT’S ASTONISHING ABOUT THIS SORT OF SENTIMENT OF THE MARKET TOWARDS THIS COMPANY IS THAT THEY PRICED THEIR I.P.O. AT THE TOP END OF THE RANGE, FROM A RETAIL PERSPECTIVE, IT WAS SEVERELY OVERSUBSCRIBED. AND THEN ON DEBUT, IN THE END, NET-NET, THIS IS ONE OF THE WORST PUBLIC MARKET DEBUTS IN SOUTH KOREA FOR AN I.P.O. OF A REASONABLE OR NOTABLE SIZE. AND IT IS ALL OF THE ABOVE.

RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A LOSS OF FAITH IN NEOCLOUDS. THEY’RE JUST DATA CENTERS THAT SPECIFICALLY RUN A.I. WORK LOADS, AND THIS IS A COMPANY THAT PULLED OFF AN I.P.O. IN SOUTH KOREA, BUT AS YOU KNOW, IN THE REPORTING, BE IT FIRMUS, FOR EXAMPLE, WHICH POSTPONED AN I.P.O., ALL OF THE WORK THAT BAILEY LIPSCHULTZ AND TEAM HAVE BEEN DOING AROUND NSCALE, THAT FILED PUBLICLY ON THE 18TH AND IS STILL DISCUSSING WITH THE S.E.C., THERE’S A LOT OF CONCERN OUT THERE.

EMILY: THE MARKET CAP HERE, LESS THAN $750 MILLION. ED: SURE, I SAID IT WAS SMALL. EMILY: REALLY, HOW MUCH CAN IT TELL US ABOUT THE GLOBAL APPETITE RIGHT NOW? ED: YOU KNOW, ACTUALLY ON "OPEN INTEREST," I BROUGHT THIS UP LAST WEEK, IN PASSING. THERE WAS A REPORT FROM GARTNER, WHICH EVERYONE IS TALKING ABOUT, THAT BASICALLY SAID THAT THE NEOCLOUDS ARE ALL GOING TO CONSOLIDATE, AND THERE IS A MISMATCH BETWEEN THE INVESTMENT THAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN INTO A.I.

CLOUD COMPUTING CAPACITY ABOUT $6 TRILLION OVER THE BALANCE OF THE DECADE, AND THE EXPECTED REVENUES THAT WILL BE GENERATED, $3.6 TRILLION IN REVENUE. INVESTMENT OF $6 TRILLION. THERE’S A MISMATCH THERE. AND THE EXPECTATION FROM GARTNER IS THERE WILL BE WRITEDOWNS, AND THEY’VE COME OUT IN THE LAST FEW DAYS AND SAID THEY STAND BY THAT REPORT. SO THAT SORT OF MACRO VIEW OF IT IS CONCERNING, AS IS THE DEBT THAT’S BEING USED TO UNDERPIN ALL OF THAT.

YOU KNOW, ELICE IS ONE CASE STUDY IN WHAT’S BEEN A RAPID-FIRE NEWS PSYCHLY FOR NEOCLOUDS -- NEWS CYCLE FOR NEOCLOUDS ENCOUNTERING PROBLEMS. I THINK YOU SAW GOLDMAN UPGRADE COREWEAVE SAYING THEY STAND OUT FROM THE REST OF THE PACK. THERE’S A REPORT THAT NSCALE IS OAT CERTAINLY OF ANOTHER DEAL WITH ANTHROPIC DESPITE ITS OWN PROBLEMS. IT IS A VIEW THAT’S IN THE MARKET. EMILY: AND WE’RE ALSO GOING TO GET RESULTS FROM SOME BIG A.I.

SPENDERS IN THE COMING WEEKS. TODAY, WE HAVE SPACEX. JUST BEFORE WE LET YOU GO, WHAT DO NEEDS NEED TO BE PAYING ATTENTION TO IN TERMS OF THE METRICS HERE? ED: REF NEW GOING TO JUMP TO ABOUT -- REVENUE IS GOING TO JUMP TO $30 BILLION FROM ABOUT $8 BILLION, AND IT IS A.I. REVENUES THAT ARE DRIVING THAT. A.I. REVENUES, $6.3 BILLION, MORE THAN DOUBLE WHAT THEY WERE IN THE LAST QUARTER, WHICH WAS ITS PUBLIC MARKET EARNINGS DEBUT.

AND IT IS EVERYTHING FROM THE COMPUTE CAPACITY THEY RESIDENT OUT TO OTHERS -- THEY RENT OUT TO OTHERS, TO WHAT THEY ARE DOING WITH GROK CHATBOT AND GROK AGENTS, AND CONNECTIVITY IN STARLINK IS CLOSE BEHIND THAT, AND SPACE IS A AFTERNOON I BIT OF IT. SO EVERYONE WILL WATCH THE PROGRESS IN ALL OF THOSE AREAS ALONG WITH THE CAPITAL EX-PEND TOURS NUMBER, BECAUSE SPACEX IS GOING TO NEED TO CONTINUE TO SPEND AT A HIGH LEVEL TO MAINTAIN MOMENTUM, BRING COMPUTE CAPACITY ONLINE AND DO ALL THE THINGS IT WANTS TO ACHIEVE.

EMILY: YOU HAVE A BUSY DAY, OUR THANKS TO "BLOOMBERG TECH" HOST ED LUDLOW. G.M. ALSO OUT WITH RESULTS THIS MORNING. SHARES IN THE RED AFTER THE AUTOMAKER CUT THE HIGH END OF ITS PROFIT OUTLOOK RANGE. THE COMPANY’S C.E.O. SPOKE TO BLOOMBERG EARLIER THIS MORNING.

WHEN WE LOOK AT THE FOURTH QUARTER, I THINK SELL SIDE MISSED A COUPLE OF THINGS THAT WE TALKED ABOUT. WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE YEAR IN REVIEW, WE’VE TAKEN GUIDANCE UP TWICE ON THE UNDERLYING BUSINESS, IEEPA TARIFF REFUNDS. ALL IN ALL, I THINK THE BUSINESS CONTINUES TO PERFORM VERY, VERY WELL, AND WE’RE LOOKING FORWARD TO AN EXCITING 2027. EMILY: FOR MORE, WE WELCOME OUR BLOOMBERG DETROIT BUREAU CHIEF. HOW MUCH OF THESE RESULTS CAN WE CHALK UP TO DECLINING CONSUMER SENTIMENT, CONSUMERS THAT HAVE TO FACE HIGHER FUEL PRICES, MAYBE THEY’RE NOT SO EXCITED TO GO OUT AND BUY A NEW CAR.

IS THAT WHAT’S DRIVING THE DOWN TURN THIS MORNING?

I THINK THAT’S A PIECE OF IT. BASICALLY YOU’VE GOT GENERAL MOTORS WITH A BEAT IN THE QUARTER. IT WAS A SOLID QUARTER FOR THEM. BUT THE OUTLOOK SAYS EARNINGS COULD BE AGENTS BIT LESS THAN THE RAISED GUIDANCE, AND A LOT HAS TO DO WITH WHERE CONSUMERS ARE RIGHT NOW, DEALING WITH INFLATION, FUEL PRICES, DEALING WITH HIGHER INTEREST RATES. DEALS SELL VEHICLES TO PEOPLE LESS AFFECTED BY THAT. BUT IT’S STILL KEEPING OVERALL VEHICLE VOLUMES IN THE UNITED STATES DOWN A BIT FROM WHERE WEE TRADITIONALLY SEEN THEM -- WE’VE TRADITIONALLY SEEN THEM.

AND I THINK INVESTORS ARE LOOKING AT ALL THIS, PUTTING IT TOGETHER AND SAYING, YEAH, OK, THAT MEANS WE’RE NOT REALLY GOING TO SEE ANY UPSIDE SURPRISE ANY MORE GROWTH IN EARNINGS FOR A WHILE, SO WE’RE GOING TO PARK OUR MONEY SOMEPLACE ELSE AND SEE WHAT THEY HAVE FOR US IN EARLY JANUARY WHEN THEY GIVE US GUIDANCE FOR 2027. EMILY: I WANT TO ASK YOU ABOUT THIS $20 BILLION SHARE BUYBACK. I OWN MARKS $20 BILLION, THAT SOUNDS LIKE A LOT, I NOTICED THAT IN THE RESULTS, FREE CASH FLOW, IT DID RISE 40%.

I MEAN, WHAT CAN WE LEARN ABOUT JUST THE COMPANY’S PLAN FOR GROWTH AND PLAN FOR WHAT THEY’RE TRYING TO DO WITH THAT CASH?

THEY HAVE GREAT CASH FLOW, AND THAT’S BEEN THE STORY OF THE BUSINESS, LARGE PICKUP TRUCKS AND S.U. V.’S, WILL THEY BRING IN TONES OF FREE CASH FLOW? YOU KNOW, G.M. IS DOING SOME THINGS TOE GROW THE BUSINESS. THEY’VE GOT STUFF LIKE ONSTAR AND THEIR HANDS-FREE DRIVING, AND THEY DO GET GROWTH THERE, AND THEY’RE GETTING IN THIS DEFENSE BUSINESS, MAKING PARTS FOR LOCKHEED. BUT WHEN YOU’RE BUYING THAT MANY SHARES BACK, AND THEY’VE BEEN DOING IT SINCE 2015, MORE AGGRESSIVELY SINCE 2023, IT SAYS YOU’RE NOT GOING TO BE PUTTING THAT MONEY INTO SOME KIND OF NEW TECHNOLOGY, LIKE A ROBO TAXI BUSINESS.

THEY GOT OUT OF THAT ALREADY. THEY’RE NOT GOING INTO NEW GLOBAL MARKETS, THE CHINESE AND KOREANS HAVE BEEN DOING THAT VERY SUCCESSFULLY, BUT THE AMERICAN AUTOMAKERS DON’T WANT TO SPEND THAT MONEY THERE, BECAUSE THE MARGINS ARE TYPICALLY LOWER. THERE’S NOT REALLY A BIG PLAN FROM MANAGEMENT TO GROW THE BUSINESS. SO IT’S BUY BACK SHARES AND IMPROVE E.P.S. RESULTS BY JUST HAVING FEWER SHARES OUT THERE IN THE MARKET. EMILY: OUR THANKS TO DAVID WELCH.

GOING FROM AUTOS TO DEFENSE EARNINGS THIS MORNING. WE HAVE G.E. AEROSPACE RAISING OUTLOOKS AMID STRONG DEMAND ACROSS THE DEFENSE AND AEROSPACE SECTORS, DESPITE RISING FUEL COSTS. MATTHEW GRIFFIN COVERS THESE STOCKS AND JOINS