Bloomberg：美国经济韧性以高通胀为代价，核心PCE或超3%

What a great question, Tom. So first of all, I picked can I go home now? Uh, it's well, here's the thing. It's the most important question because we talk a lot about average hourly earnings. I like average weekly earnings a little bit more. That's the sum of how much I know. But how much percentage of people are average? Uh, I mean, John Tucker is not measured in average hourly earnings. Here's the challenge. We historically you're watching the U.S. consumer.

You care about how much money are they making. But now, in part because of retirees, in part because of interest income, in part because of those huge stock market portfolios, wages are only 50% of what income comes home 50%, which means they're only half. Now that's not distributed equally. You've got some consumers, mostly low and middle income consumers are much more reliant on their wage. And then you've got a segment of consumers who couldn't care less time.

They're getting their Cola adjustments from Social Security. Social security is 90% of all income in the United States right now. It's inflation adjusted interest income. Their stock market portfolios are doing great because it is the most important question today. And so we are over weighting wages. And we are not looking at enough about how the fabric of the US consumer is being transformed by all these other forms of income.

She is bringing me to tears. I know I'm bringing you games, Paul. I yield you exactly. All right. So inflation, it just feels like the inflation story continues to rule over everything. Um, what's your inflation call these days? How are you looking at. Is it. Is it under control? Is it possible to get this thing under control one time? Paul, you know I have been here for a while. I do not like the inflation or the inflation path and it is broadening.

This is not just one story. This is 50% of the basket eggs. Shelter is growing more than 3%. That's not just one area. And I think what worries me is that there's still a lot in the pipeline. I mean, we've been believers that tariff price pressures are still coming through. Americans are still drawing down on inventories. They still have to import at higher tariff pressures. But that energy shock it's showing up in things like freight shipping is up 37% year over year.

Freight trucking 17%. Someone is going to have to pay for that. We had the largest increase on record for toys last month. Toys y, they're heavily imported. I'm watching this. I have two kids. I want to know what's coming up at Christmas time. Why? Because you got to move them. Yeah. And there's tariffs on top of these things. So there is still pressure in the pipeline. And you're not going to get any relief from services.

Why 70 million Americans are about to get a 3.6% raise of those Social Security inflation adjustments. You know where they're going to spend that service. So you're not going to see any reprieve there either. So we have about 2.6% for this year and next year on core inflation. But PCI inflation core PCI can come in easily above 3% in the next month. This is not the right direction for inflation, and I think it's heavily informing how Americans are going to the polls in just a few weeks.

Yes, that's what we're hearing. And if you're the fed, is that the fed? If you see the numbers that you just talked about, does it if them rate raising rates, is that going to help anything. Well here's the challenge. There are two consumer groups in my mind. They're those ones we talked about that have wages. And they are very interest rate sensitive. But they're already depleted. We've already seen them pick up credit utilization.

They're borrowing more, spending less. Delinquencies are starting to rise, but they're not the ones creating inflation in the system. And then the group you really want to slope from the demand side. They're going to maybe even benefit from higher interest rates. So the consumer itself is less interest rate sensitive, not the least of which we could talk about. I interest rate sensitivity to yeah I look at this Frances Donald with us right now with our b c how do we get our nominal GDP from five 6% and bring it down constructively?

Do you envision that? Well uh, I'm pretty comfortable with the current growth rates in the U.S. economy, but I like the way you frame your question again here, Tom, because the resiliency we've seen in the U.S. economy is coming at a cost, and that cost is higher inflation, no question, and higher interest rates. And what particularly worries me about growth right now is not the level, it's just the composition. Half of it is coming from I.

And well, we're long term believers and I as a trend, it means that you've got sort of one very thick, uh, part of the stool that is being held up by one core narrative. And so how do you bring down nominal GDP? Quietly? You'd have to deflate slowly. And I and that's real hard to do. For instance, Donald with his perfect for Paul Sweeney over the housing data out. And I'm going to editorialize here, Paul. It's just flat out grim.

The revision of housing starts -2.6 becomes negative, 5.9 housing starts or a positive 1.9 and come in a -5.20 point. And she's going to say that's a small part of the economy in that. Oh, but it's emotional. It is. Talk to us about the housing business to real estate. It's important to us. But it's even more important for your Canada. How do you think about housing here? You know, my one of my very first jobs as an economist was actually watching housing.

And if you knew where housing was going and you knew where China was going, you knew where the US was going, you'd get manufacturing and housing now. And now housing is like a tertiary data point in the US. And that's not because it's become less important. It's just because it's decoupled is a primary driver within the US, and we have things like government spending, high income consumer and AI that have just become the primary mode.

And engine 114% of our people listening on Sirius XM channel 121 across Canada in the US Do not agree. It's a tertiary idea. We are living with our kids, with ourselves, with our parents. It's grim out there. It is not a tertiary idea. It's a primary component of the economy. It's no longer a primary driver of the economy. But to your point, and this is a theme you hear from so many economists. The real economy is not mapping on to the GDP numbers to the same extent.

So you have rent prices that continue to climb shelter prices, which continue to be an issue. And here's the challenge where we see inflation in the system are not things you can pivot away from. Okay. I give you two things in your ten year yield and six basis points a for 9910 year. We're not there yet. But everybody's betting on a stable to higher yield of the ten year. And it's given me a Kevin Warsh. It's coming in via what's a 4.99 ten year signal when we get there.

Well it means a little bit more tightening in the economy. But I think what's fascinating is you're asking me about the ten year and not. The fed meeting next week, which once again, I'm going to give you a hat trick. Tom, that's the third grade sitting this morning. A little bit too much for it. Okay. We're going to have to pick the segueing right now because Farrow's over there interview. And the president of our ABC, I'd rather talk to you because you have Canadiens tickets.

I don't think the Montreal Canadiens are as good as they were last year. They're winning. But every game is a drama. It's a theater. And it was going so well for us. And now you've unwind all the gains with a comment against the Montreal Canadiens. They're just not winning. If everything's a shootout, everything's in overtime. Well listen, we got a lot going on in Canada. We've got a trade war, an energy shock. We've probably got higher rates coming through as well.

So I think that's going to keep Canadians busy. Uh, and let's just hope our hockey team comes in better for us at