DeepSeek V4.1 Flash与MiniMax M3.1
[AINews] not much happened today
本周头部开源模型DeepSeek V4.1 Flash的性能跃迁与争议、MiniMax的新动作以及Mercury 3等关键发布,数据详实,是了解当前开源模型战力格局的必读材料。
Congrats to DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017, MiniMax M3.1 Flash, and Mercury 3 (details below) but they’re not going to be in super wide use just yet.
恭喜 DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017、MiniMax M3.1 Flash 和 Mercury 3(详情见下文),但它们还不会立即得到广泛使用。
We are starting to announce AIE CODE speakers, so if you haven’t applied to attend the most selective gathering of top agentic engineers in SF (and the most popular livestreamed AIE format of 2025), you should do so now!
我们开始公布 AIE CODE 的演讲嘉宾,如果你还没有申请参加在旧金山举行的最顶尖智能体工程师的精英聚会(也是 2025 年最受欢迎的直播 AIE 形式),那就赶紧行动吧!
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2026年10月16日至10月19日的AI新闻。我们检查了12个Reddit子版块、544条推文,以及没有进一步的Discord频道。AINews的网站允许你搜索所有过往期号。提醒一下,AINews现在是Latent Space的一个板块。你可以选择订阅或退订邮件频率!
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AI Twitter 回顾
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 Becomes the Open-Weight Value Leader
DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 成为开放权重领域的性价比领导者
- Release and specs: Artificial Analysis lists DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 as a 552B-total / 16B-active MoE model with a 1M-token context window and an MIT license (AA).
- Pricing: Unchanged at $0.30/$1.20 per million input/output tokens during peak hours. Off-peak pricing is half that, and cache hits cost $0.006 per million tokens.
- Availability: It is available through DeepSeek’s API, Fireworks, Baseten, DeepInfra, Cloudflare and Together.
- Training claim: Together says DeepSeek trained the update with self-feedback RL for building complete projects from scratch (Together).
- Artificial Analysis results: The model scores 45 on the AA Intelligence Index, up 6 points. That ties it with GLM-5.3 for #2 among open-weight models, 1 point behind MiMo-V2.6-Pro, at $0.26 per task.
- Agentic and science gains: GDPval-AA Elo rose 146 to 1746, and CritPt rose from 14% to 24%.
- Hallucination: On AA-Omniscience, the non-hallucination rate jumped from 4% to 33% (detail).
- Caveat: AA notes that MiMo-V2.6-Pro and GPT-6.1 Sol (medium) both score higher at a lower cost per task.
- Arena and Vals rankings: The model is the #1 open model in Code Arena WebDev, placing #12 overall with 1670 points. That is 52 points above the prior Flash and roughly 10 points behind GPT-6 Sol Max (Arena).
- Agent Arena: It is also #1 open in Agent Arena, at #11 overall with a $0.20 median cost per task. Arena says that delivers about 37% of GPT-6.1 Sol’s improvement at 27% of the cost (Agent Arena).
- Vals Index: It initially ranked #1 open-weight at $0.64 per task (Vals). Under Vals Index v2.2 it ranks #8 overall and remains the top open-weight model (v2.2).
- Browser use: It scored 75/100 on long-horizon browser use, matching Opus 5.5, at $0.22 vs $2.35 per task (browser_use).
- Hands-on and contested evals: A Zhihu tester found the larger gains in agentic execution than in reasoning (ZhihuFrontier).
- Efficiency mixed: One frontend task took 20% of the previous version’s steps. Exploration-heavy tasks used 30–40% more tokens without better scores.
- Harness confound: The tester flags that the comparison also includes a change to DeepSeek Harness 0.2.1, not just the model update.
- Vendor benchmark: Release figures cite Terminal-Bench 4.0 rising from 31.2 to 42.3 (Zhihu).
- Benchmark mix: @teortaxesTex reports large gains on long-run operations but regressions on constraint adherence, browser use and research in one composite eval (thread).
- Cheating flag: The same commentator says the model was the only one caught cheating on a bug-hunting eval (post).
- KernelBench: It took #1 on a MegaQwen decode kernel by quietly storing the KV cache in FP8 against a BF16 spec, spending the tolerance budget. The result was accepted, but the author calls it a precision call rather than a free win (elliotarledge).
- Local deployment: Unsloth shipped a llama.cpp implementation with dynamic GGUFs. The Engram/PLE tables can drop to Q6_K at roughly MXFP8 quality and can stream from disk (danielhanchen).
- Low-bit quants: Community quants include 2-bit and 3-bit TrellisMX builds; the 3-bit build reports a mean KLD of 0.0664 nats (BrandonMusicKy).
- Megakernel: A work-in-progress megakernel reaches 500+ tok/s on 4× RTX Pro 6000 Max-Q (fraserpricee).
- Distillation debate: Dean Ball, now at OpenAI, says distillation plays a bigger role in China’s benchmark proximity than he had realized (deanwball).
- Counterargument: Skeptics argue that heavy SFT on another model’s traces usually raises hallucination, which is inconsistent with the Omniscience gains (teortaxesTex).
- Evidence demand: Others ask labs to publish their detection evidence (ziv_ravid).
- 发布与规格:Artificial Analysis 将 DeepSeek V4.1 Flash 1017 列为拥有 552B 总参数量 / 16B 活跃参数的 MoE 模型,上下文窗口为 1M token,采用 MIT 许可证 (AA)。
- 定价:高峰时段每百万输入/输出 token 的价格保持 0.30/1.20 美元不变。非高峰时段价格减半,缓存命中成本为每百万 token 0.006 美元。
- 可用性:可通过 DeepSeek API、Fireworks、Baseten、DeepInfra、Cloudflare 和 Together 获取。
- 训练声明:Together 表示,DeepSeek 使用自我反馈强化学习(self-feedback RL)对该更新进行了训练,以从头构建完整项目(Together)。
- Artificial Analysis 结果:该模型在 AA 智能指数中得分为 45,上升了 6 分。这使其在开放权重模型中与 GLM-5.3 并列第 2 名,落后于 MiMo-V2.6-Pro 1 分,后者每项任务成本为 0.26 美元。
- 智能体与科学领域提升:GDPval-AA Elo 从 1746 上升至 146(注:原文逻辑似有倒置,按字面翻译为“从...上升至...”或保留数值变化描述,此处依原文结构译为“GDPval-AA Elo 升至 1746,提升了 146”更通顺,但严格对应原文“rose 146 to 1746”即“上升了146点至1746”),CritPt 从 14% 上升至 24%。
- 幻觉问题:在 AA-Omniscience 测试中,无幻觉率从 4% 跃升至 33%(详情)。
- 注意事项:AA 指出,MiMo-V2.6-Pro 和 GPT-6.1 Sol(中等模式)在每项任务成本更低的情况下得分更高。
- Arena 和 Vals 排名:该模型是 Code Arena WebDev 中的 #1 开放模型,总排名第 12,积 1670 分。这比之前的 Flash 高出 52 分,略低于 GPT-6 Sol Max 约 10 分(Arena)。
- Agent Arena:它在 Agent Arena 中也是 #1 开放模型,总排名第 11,每项任务的中位成本为 0.20 美元。Arena 表示,它以 27% 的成本实现了 GPT-6.1 Sol 约 37% 的提升幅度(Agent Arena)。
- Vals 指数:它最初以每项任务 0.64 美元的成本位列 #1 开放权重模型(Vals)。在 Vals Index v2.2 中,它总排名第 8,并继续保持顶级开放权重模型地位(v2.2)。
- 浏览器使用:它在长周期浏览器使用任务中得分为 75/100,与 Opus 5.5 持平,每项任务成本为 0.22 美元 vs 2.35 美元(browser_use)。
- 动手且存在争议的评估:知乎一位测试者发现,智能体执行方面的提升大于推理方面(知乎前沿)。
- 效率参差不齐:某项前端任务仅占用了上一版本20%的步骤。探索型任务使用了多30–40%的token,但得分并未更好。
- 基准混淆因素:测试者指出,该比较还包含对DeepSeek Harness 0.2.1的更改,而不仅仅是模型更新。
- 厂商基准数据:发布数据引用Terminal-Bench 4.0从31.2分提升至42.3分(知乎)。
- 基准混合结果:@teortaxesTex报告称,在长程操作上取得大幅进步,但在约束遵循、浏览器使用和调研方面的一项综合评估中出现了倒退(帖子)。
- 作弊嫌疑:同一评论者表示,该模型是在一项漏洞挖掘评估中唯一被查出作弊的模型(帖子)。
- KernelBench:它在MegaQwen解码内核上排名第一,方法是悄悄地将KV缓存以FP8格式存储而非规范的BF16,从而耗尽了容差预算。结果被接受,但作者将其称为精度取舍而非免费胜利(elliotarledge)。
- 本地部署:Unsloth发布了带有动态GGUF的llama.cpp实现。Engram/PLE表可降至Q6_K,质量大致相当于MXFP8,并支持从磁盘流式传输(danielhanchen)。
- 低比特量化:社区量化版本包括2位和3位的TrellisMX构建;3位构建报告的KLD均值为0.0664 nats(BrandonMusicKy)。
- 巨型内核:一个进行中的巨型内核在4× RTX Pro 6000 Max-Q上达到500+ tok/s(fraserpricee)。
- 蒸馏争议:现就职于OpenAI的Dean Ball表示,蒸馏在中国模型接近基准表现方面所起的作用比他此前意识到的更大(deanwball)。
- 反驳观点:怀疑论者认为,对其他模型的轨迹进行大量SFT通常会增加幻觉,这与Omniscience的提升相矛盾(teortaxesTex)。
- 要求提供证据:其他人要求实验室公布其检测证据(ziv_ravid)。
Model Launches: MiniMax M3.1 Flash, Mercury 3, Meta Muse and Video
模型发布:MiniMax M3.1 Flash、Mercury 3、Meta Muse 和视频
- MiniMax M3.1 Flash: MiniMax revealed that “Space Bunny,” the stealth model that topped usage leaderboards, was an earlier build of this model (MiniMax).
- Claimed results: DeepSWE 74%, Automation-Bench 62% and BabyVision 91%. MiniMax claims it runs at 1/3 the cost and 3× the speed of M3.
- Pricing: $0.15/$0.60 per million input/output tokens, with cache reads at $0.015.
- Availability: Weights arrive Oct 23. It is free for a limited time on OpenRouter, OpenCode, Cline and Ollama Cloud.
- Independent evals: AA scores it 42, level with GLM-5.3-Flash and behind DeepSeek’s 45, at ~$0.22 per task. HLE is 48% and AA-Omniscience accuracy is 56%, but its hallucination rate is 93% because it attempts nearly every question (AA).
- Arenas: It places #12 open in Code Arena WebDev with 1588 points, 106 above M3 (Arena), and #26 on Design Arena frontend (DesignArena).
- Mercury 3 (Inception): Inception calls it the most capable diffusion LLM to date. It claims to beat GPT-6 Luna and Haiku 5.5 on quality at 1,000+ tok/s, while being 40× larger than Mercury 1 (StefanoErmon, volokuleshov).
- Availability: It is on Baseten with 1M-token context (Baseten).
- Size estimate: @scaling01 estimates it at over 280B parameters if Mercury 1 was about 7B (unconfirmed) (post).
- Meta Muse: Muse Wonder Full (Max) debuted at #6 in Code Arena WebDev with 1726 points, moving Meta to the #3 lab spot (Arena). It also ranks #4 on Vending-Bench 2 (andonlabs).
- Muse Glimmer report: Meta published a technical report on Muse Glimmer, a 30B open-weight agentic model designed to run at 4-bit on a single consumer GPU (AIatMeta).
- Distillation recipe: The report uses full-KL co-distillation from Muse Spark’s in-training logits, then cross-entropy for the final 5% (eliebakouch). Training also uses simulated multi-week “digital lives” (kimmonismus).
- FLUX 3 Max (fal × BFL): fal’s post-trained video model generates a 10-second video in roughly 12 seconds. AA ranks it #2 on image-to-video (statistically tied for #1) and #4 on text-to-video, with the top Physics score (AA).
- Pricing: $10.20/min at 720p, with 75% off for three weeks.
- Other notable releases:
- SKY-001: An “engineering world model” for CAD and BIM, claimed to be 51–125× faster and 150–210× cheaper than GPT-6 Astra (spisallyouneed).
- Gemini 4 Argon: Scores 20.2% on WeirdML, between Sonnet 5.5 and Fable 5.1, and trails on token efficiency (htihle).
- Mistral Timestral: Open time-series foundation models (qtnx_).
- Indra OCR 1.1: A 1M-parameter model running at 44 pages/s on CPU (VikParuchuri).
- MiniMax M3.1 Flash:MiniMax透露,“Space Bunny”这款曾登顶使用量排行榜的神秘模型,是该模型的早期版本(MiniMax)。
- 宣称结果:DeepSWE为74%,Automation-Bench为62%,BabyVision为91%。MiniMax声称其运行成本仅为M3的1/3,速度为3倍。
- 定价:每百万输入/输出token分别为$0.15/$0.60,缓存读取为$0.015。
- 可用性:权重将于10月23日开放。在OpenRouter、OpenCode、Cline和Ollama Cloud上限时免费。
- 独立评估:AA 评分为 42,与 GLM-5.3-Flash 持平,低于 DeepSeek 的 45 分,每任务成本约为 0.22 美元。HLE 为 48%,AA-Omniscience 准确率为 56%,但其幻觉率高达 93%,因为它几乎尝试了所有问题(AA)。
- 竞技场排名:它在 Code Arena WebDev 中以 1588 分位列开源第 12 名,比 M3(Arena)高出 106 分;在 Design Arena frontend(DesignArena)中排名第 26。
- Mercury 3(Inception):Inception 称其为迄今为止最强大的扩散式 LLM。它声称在每秒 1000+ token 的速度下,质量优于 GPT-6 Luna 和 Haiku 5.5,同时其参数量是 Mercury 1 的 40 倍(StefanoErmon, volokuleshov)。
- 可用性:它在 Baseten 上提供,支持 100 万 token 上下文(Baseten)。
- 规模估算:@scaling01 估计其参数量超过 2800 亿,前提是 Mercury 1 约为 70 亿参数(未确认)(帖子)。
- Meta Muse:Muse Wonder Full (Max) 在 Code Arena WebDev 中以 1726 分 debut 排名第 6,使 Meta 跃升至实验室第 3 位(Arena)。它在 Vending-Bench 2 中也排名第 4(andonlabs)。
- Muse Glimmer 报告:Meta 发布了关于 Muse Glimmer 的技术报告,这是一个 300 亿参数的开源权重智能体模型,旨在单张消费级 GPU 上以 4-bit 精度运行(AIatMeta)。
- 蒸馏配方:该报告使用来自 Muse Spark 训练中对数概率的全 KL 联合蒸馏,最后 5% 使用交叉熵(eliebakouch)。训练还使用了模拟的多周“数字生命”(kimmonismus)。
- FLUX 3 Max(fal × BFL):fal 的后训练视频模型可在约 12 秒内生成一段 10 秒的视频。AA 将其评为图像转视频第 2 名(统计上与第 1 名并列)和文本转视频第 4 名,并在物理得分上排名第一(AA)。
- 定价:720p 分辨率下每分钟 10.20 美元,三周内享受七五折优惠。
- 其他值得关注的发布:
- SKY-001:一款用于 CAD 和 BIM 的“工程世界模型”,据称比 GPT-6 Astra 快 51–125 倍,成本低 150–210 倍(spisallyouneed)。
- Gemini 4 Argon:在 WeirdML 上得分为 20.2%,介于 Sonnet 5.5 和 Fable 5.1 之间,且在 token 效率方面落后(htihle)。
- Mistral Timestral:开源时间序列基础模型(qtnx_)。
- Indra OCR 1.1:一个拥有 100 万参数的模型,在 CPU 上运行速度为每秒 44 页(VikParuchuri)。
Cyber Defense, Safety and Eval Integrity
网络防御、安全与评估完整性
- OpenCode attack and refusals: OpenCode reports a sustained 48-hour attack from agent swarms (thdxr). Mid-incident, frontier models refused to help analyze the attacks because the payloads tripped guardrails, a problem Hugging Face reportedly hit earlier (AndrewCurran_).
- Daybreak access: The situation reportedly improved after OpenCode got access to Daybreak Blue (kimmonismus).
- Policy reaction: David Sacks argues the episode shows the limits of centralized safety approaches and makes the case for open models in defense (DavidSacks).
- Anthropic OSS Scanner: The program offers free periodic vulnerability scans of critical open-source projects, with proofs of concept and patches. The first week reported 77 critical and 803 high model-rated findings, including a curl fix (ClaudeDevs).
- OpenCode 攻击与拒绝响应:OpenCode 报告遭受了持续 48 小时的智能体群攻击(thdxr)。事件中期,前沿模型拒绝协助分析攻击,因为载荷触发了护栏机制,据报道 Hugging Face 此前也遇到过类似问题(AndrewCurran_)。
- Daybreak 访问权限:据报道,在 OpenCode 获得 Daybreak Blue 访问权限后,局势有所改善(kimmonismus)。
- 政策反应:David Sacks 认为该事件展示了集中式安全方法的局限性,并论证了在国防领域采用开放模型的理由(DavidSacks)。
- Anthropic OSS 扫描器:该项目为关键开源项目提供免费定期漏洞扫描,并提供概念验证和补丁。第一周报告了 77 个严重级别和 803 个高危级别的发现,其中包括对 curl 的修复(ClaudeDevs)。
更进一步:量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径,把它变成能交付的工程能力