Bloomberg：AI自由现金流拐点与高收益债压力定价分析
Bloomberg Surveillance 10/19/2026
Max Kettner从自由现金流转移与信用利差维度拆解AI行情支撑，提供可复用的宏观-微观联动观察框架。建议关注财报季盈利验证及CCC级债券定价变化。
THE EQUITY MARKETS ARE STILL TRACKING.
股市仍在持续波动。
MONEY EVENTUALLY WILL COME BACK TO TAX.
资金最终将回归税收领域。
I'M OPTIMISTIC FOR THE NEXT SIX TO 12 MONTHS ON THE TRADE.
我对未来六到十二个月的交易前景持乐观态度。
THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE" WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. JONATHAN: LIVE FROM NEW YORK CITY, GOOD MORNING GOOD MORNING. BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE STARTS RIGHT NOW. TECH STOCKS BOUNCE. LOOKING TO SNAP A FIVE DAY SLIDE AS ANOTHER NVIDIA PROSPECT FACING PUSHBACK HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF EARNINGS SEASON. LISA: HE TOOK YOUR ADVICE AND ROLLED WITH IT. ALWAYS COMPLAINING ABOUT THE FACT THE TECH NAMES, OUT OVER TWO DAYS CONCENTRATED ON ONE DAY NOW WE CAN PARSE THROUGH MEDA'S EARNINGS A WEEK BEFORE SOME OF THE OTHER TECH NAMES.
这是乔纳森·费罗、丽莎·阿布拉莫维奇和安玛丽·霍登的《彭博监控》节目。乔纳森：来自纽约市，早上好，早上好。《彭博监控》现在开始。科技股反弹，有望终结五连跌，但随着财报季临近，另一家英伟达（NVIDIA）概念股面临阻力。丽莎：他采纳了你的建议并顺势而为。一直以来都在抱怨科技股名头在两天内集中在一天里，现在我们可以先解析Meda的财报，这比一些其他科技股的财报早一周。
THE KEY QUESTION, CAP ASKED AND MET A MUSE, HOW MUCH IS THIS SOMETHING THEY CAN CREATE PROFITABILITY AND HOW MUCH IS THIS TO SAY THEY ARE IN THE AI TRADE. JONATHAN: EQUITY AND DEBT AS WELL. ON THE CAPEX PLANS FOR SOME OF THE BIGGEST PLAYERS THE LIKES OF SPACE X. BUT FOR SMALLER PLAYERS, THE UNEVEN ACCESS TO CAPITAL SEEING HEADLINES THE NEWS FLOW OF THE LAST WEEK. LISA: MAKING IT SCALE THIS NVIDIA NEO CLOUD A REAL QUESTION ABOUT HIS VALUATION AND THE IPO PLANNING SHOOTING FOR SOMETHING LIKE 30 BILLION DOLLARS WITH PEOPLE PUSHING BACK SAYING ITS 9 BILLION.
关键问题是，Cap询问了Muse，他们能在多大程度上创造盈利能力，又在多大程度上表明他们参与了AI交易。乔纳森：包括股票和债务。对于SpaceX等最大玩家的资本支出计划而言，但对于较小的玩家来说，资本获取的不均衡以及过去一周的新闻头条和新闻流。丽莎：使其规模化。这家英伟达新云（NVIDIA Neo Cloud）对其估值和IPO计划提出了真正的问题，目标约为300亿美元，但有人表示反对，认为其价值仅为90亿美元。
ULTIMATELY THE REAL QUESTION ABOUT THE EVALUATIONS LINED UP AHEAD OF THE KEY IPO WHICH IS ANTHROPIC AND EVALUATION COMES INTO BORROWING COSTS OF COREWEAVE BLOWING THROUGH THE ROOF AND THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH THAT COULD. JONATHAN: EIGHT-DAY LOSING STREAK FOR THE SEMI'S. THAT NEWS BURIED BY THE NEWS FROM OUT OF FRANCE OVER THE WEEKEND. FRENCH SPREADS WIDER. FRENCH EQUITIES LOWER. THE EURO WEAKER, THE BANKS ARE HOLDING FOR FRENCH SHIELDS THIS MORNING UP, RIOTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.
归根结底，关于即将进行的关键IPO——Anthropic的估值，以及Coreweave的借贷成本飙升的问题才是核心。乔纳森：半导体板块八连跌。这一消息被本周末来自法国的新闻所掩盖。法国利差走阔。法国股市下跌。欧元走弱，银行今晨坚守法国防线，全国爆发骚乱。
ANNMARIE: CLASHES WITH HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF PEOPLE NOT JUST IN PARIS BUT OTHER CITIES ACROSS FRANCE. A LOT OF DESTRUCTION WHEN IT COMES TO STOREFRONTS AND NATIONAL MONUMENTS. THE FRENCH PRESIDENT GIVING A SPEECH LAST NIGHT. ASKING OURSELVES HOW CAN FRENCH PEOPLE DO THIS FRANCE. DRAWING DISTINCTION FROM THOSE WHO HAVE LEGITIMATE DEMANDS AND THOSE WHO ARE JUST THERE TO SMASH, LOOT, ETC.. HE STOPPED SHORT OF SAYING THIS WAS A STATE OF EMERGENCY.
安玛丽：冲突涉及数十万人，不仅发生在巴黎，还发生在法国其他城市。商店橱窗和国家纪念碑遭到大量破坏。法国总统昨晚发表讲话。我们不禁要问，法国人怎么能这样对待法国。他将那些有正当诉求的人与那些纯粹为了打砸抢烧的人区分开来。但他并未明确表示这是紧急状态。
THE YELLOW VESTS HAVE SAID THEY WILL PROTEST ON SATURDAY. EMMANUEL MACRON. JONATHAN: WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THEY TRY TO CUT THE DEFICIT. AT THE MOMENT IT SEEMS SOCIAL COHESION. FOR THE CUTS NEEDED IN THIS MARKET REFLECTED IN THE SPREADS THAT ARE WIDER. LISA: NOT REFLECT IN THE ALARM FROM INVESTORS IN FRENCH DEBT BUT DON'T BELIEVE THERE IS SOMETHING THAT THE THEMES LAST WEEK. HOW SCREWED IS EUROPE, BUT THAT HAS BEEN THE ONGOING QUESTION BY A LOT OF INVESTORS THAT ARE SEEING HUGE COMPETITION FOR CAPITAL.
黄背心表示他们将在周六举行抗议。埃马纽埃尔·马克龙。乔纳森：当他们试图削减赤字时会发生什么？目前看来，社会凝聚力似乎因市场所反映的、需要进行的削减而受到影响，这体现在利差走阔上。丽莎：虽然投资者对法国债务的担忧并未完全反映出来，但不相信上周的主题有什么变化。欧洲处境有多糟糕？这是许多看到资本激烈竞争的投资者一直在追问的问题。
BIG CONCERN ABOUT FRANCE, BIG QUESTION OF WHAT THEY CAN DO FOR IT AND A QUESTION OF HOW COHESIVE THE EU IS TO ADDRESS THIS PROBLEM. JONATHAN: WE WILL CATCH UP WITH THE TOP TECH STORY OF THE LAST WEEK. ANGELO ZENO WITH THE IPO VALUATION VERY MUCH UNDER PRESSURE. FRANCE FACES ANOTHER DEBT SELLOFF. WE BEGIN WITH THE TECH REBOUND PUSHING STOCKS HIGHER. MAX KETTNER WRITING CALLS FOR THE BURSTING EQUITY AI BUBBLE WE THINK THERE'S TOO MUCH ON THE FACTORS.
人们非常担心法国的情况，并质疑能采取什么措施来解决这一问题，同时也质疑欧盟在应对这一问题上的凝聚力如何。乔纳森：我们将回顾上周最重要的科技新闻。安吉洛·泽诺指出，IPO估值正承受巨大压力。法国面临另一轮国债抛售。我们首先从科技股反弹推动股价走高谈起。马克斯·凯特纳撰文呼吁警惕AI股票泡沫破裂，但我们认为其中存在太多被忽视的因素。
MAX WELCOME. WHEN YOU SAY TOO MUCH OF THE WRONG FACTORS, WHICH FACTORS ARE YOU POINTING TO? MAX: I THINK SOME OF THESE THINGS AROUND DEBT ISSUANCE THEY ARE A BIT OVERBLOWN. I THINK THE FOCUS WHERE IT SHOULD BE LYING OVER THE NEXT SIX TO 12 MONTHS IS ON THE FREE PATH FLOW DYNAMIC. WE KNOW THOSE CHARTS FROM THE LAST COUPLE OF MONTHS OFF THIS HYPERSCALER OVERT SEMI FREE CASH FLOW TRANSFER WITH HYPERSCALERS NOW GOING INTO NEGATIVE FREE CASH FLOW AND THAT FREE CASH FLOW BASICALLY BEING TRANSFERRED.
欢迎马克斯。当你说“太多错误的因素”时，你指的是哪些因素？马克斯：我认为围绕债务发行的一些说法有些夸大其词。我认为未来六到十二个月的重点应放在自由现金流动态上。我们知道过去几个月来自这些超大规模云厂商（hyperscaler）的图表显示，随着超大规模云厂商的自由现金流转为负值，其自由现金流基本正在转移。
FOR ME GOING INTO 2027 THIS IS ONE OF THE KEY QUESTIONS ARE ON THE AI TRADE BECAUSE OF DO MANAGE TO SEE A BIT OF A POSITIVE RATE OF CHANGE NOT EVEN POSITIVE FREE CASH FLOW BUT JUST US GOING THROUGH THE TROUGH IN FREE CASH FLOW DYNAMICS. IF THAT HAPPENS AND THAT HAPPENS NOT BECAUSE OF A RESULT OF A LOT OF CAPEX BUT INDEED BECAUSE OF HIGHER PROFITABILITY OR SALES. IF THAT HAPPENS THAT IS REALLY BULLISH FOR THE TECH TRADE BECAUSE IN THAT INSTANCE IT'S NOT A QUESTION OF DO YOU BY THE AI ADOPTERS DO YOU BY THE CHIP NAMES.
对我而言，进入2027年时的一个关键问题是关于AI交易，因为我们能否看到某种程度的正向变化率？即使不是正的自由现金流，至少是自由现金流动态经历低谷期。如果这种情况发生，而且并非由于大量资本支出（CAPEX）所致，而是因为盈利能力或销售额提高所致，那么这对科技交易来说将是真正的利好。在这种情况下，问题不在于你是否买入AI采用者，也不在于你是否买入芯片制造商。
IN THAT CASE, IT'S THE MEMORY NAMES STILL RECEIVING THE ORDERS AND THE CAPEX. BUT IT IS ALSO THE HYPERSCALERS MAKING THE MONEY IN THE AI ADOPTERS ANYWHERE WHERE WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THE EFFICIENCY GAINS ALREADY. SO THEREFORE IT WOULD BE REALLY BULLISH ACROSS THE ENTIRE TECH UNIVERSE AND THAT I THINK IS THE KEY QUESTION NOW FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS IT'S NOT ABOUT WHO IS GOING TO ISSUE MORE DEBT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS.
在那种情况下，内存制造商仍在接收订单和资本支出。但同时也是超大规模云厂商在AI采用者身上赚钱，我们在任何地方都能看到一些效率提升的成果。因此，整个科技领域都将迎来真正的牛市。我认为接下来几个月的关键问题不再是谁会在未来几个月内发行更多债务。
JONATHAN: CREDIT STARTING TO WIDEN. THAT'S AN ISSUE FOR PEOPLE. YOU CAN IGNORE HIGH YIELDS ON SOFTWARE BONDS PARTICULAR TREASURIES UP TO A POINT. YOU CAN IGNORE BECAUSE IT'S A REFLECTION OF TECH. TECH HAS BEEN LEADING RATES. BUT NOW YOU START TO SEE THE SPREAD WIDE AND. WHERE IS THE SUPPORT GOING TO COME FROM INTO YEAR-END NEVER MIND THE FIRST HALF OF 27 WHAT'S GETTING INTO YEAR-END WITH SPREADS WIDER AND CHIPS TRADING A LOT SOFTER.
乔纳森：信用利差开始走阔。这是一个对人们有影响的问题。你可以忽略软件债券的高收益率，特别是国债在某种程度上。你可以忽略，因为这是科技的反映。科技一直在引领利率。但现在你开始看到利差走阔。年底前支持将从何而来？更别提27年上半年了，随着利差走阔和芯片交易疲软，年底前会发生什么。
MAX: I WOULD DISAGREE. WHAT I WOULD SAY IS IF WE HAD YIELDS GOING UP THE TENURE GOING UP WHICH IS BEEN DONE IN THE LAST TWO OR THREE MONTHS. ON THE BACK OF THAT STUFF LIKE TRIPLE C'S FOR EXAMPLE WOULD'VE WIDENED FROM 500 BASIS POINTS AT THE END OF FEBRUARY TO SOMETHING LIKE 600. SO BARELY ANYTHING. THEN YOU HAVE A CASE FOR COMPLACENCY AND THE CASE FOR HIGHER RATES, HIGHER YIELDS ARE REALLY NOT BEING PRICED IN BY ANY ASSET CLASS.
马克斯：我不同意。我想说的是，如果收益率上升，期限延长，这在过去的两三个月里已经发生了。在此基础上，像CCC级这样的东西会从2月底的500个基点扩大到600个基点左右。所以几乎没什么变化。那么你就有了自满的理由，而更高利率、更高收益率的情况实际上并没有被任何资产类别定价。
IF YOU HAD NO PED RATING, IF THAT WASN'T TRADING THROUGH THE TROUGH FROM MARCH THIS YEAR AND WE ARE NOW APPROACHING LOWS FROM LIBERATION DAY LAST YEAR. THE TROUGH WAS AT 18 LAST APRIL. IF YOU HAVE THOSE THINGS HADN'T HAPPEN THEN YOU CAN MAKE A CASE FOR COMPLACENCY LOOK AT HIGH YIELD, THE TRIPLE C'S ARE ALMOST 1100 BASIS POINTS. WE ARE JUST A TOUCH AWAY FROM THE HIGHS IN 2022. THERE IS NO CASE TO BE MADE FOR COMPLACENCY ANYMORE.
如果你没有PED评级，如果它不是从今年3月的低谷交易，我们现在正接近去年解放日的低点。低谷是在去年4月的18点。如果这些事情没有发生，那么你就可以为自满辩护。看看高收益债，CCC级几乎达到1100个基点。我们距离2022年的高点仅一步之遥。再也没有理由自满了。
THERE'S A CASE TO BE MADE THAT A LOT OF STRESS IS ALREADY PRICED IN. YOU CAN SEE THE DOUBLE B AND SINGLE B AREN'T PRICING THEIR BUT THERE IS MATERIAL IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF QUARTERS. THE STRESS IS LYING IN TRIPLE C'S. REALLY THERE I SAID WE HAVE PRICED IN A LOT OF STRESS ALREADY. ALMOST AT THE SAME LEVEL WHERE WE WERE AT THE PEAK OF 2022. THAT IS NOT ANY KIND OF COMPLACENCY. GOING FORWARD THE SUPPORT COMES FROM THAT SORT OF AREA WE ARE SEEING THE STRESS BEING PRICED IN WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE LESS STRESS.
有一种观点认为，很多压力已经被定价。你可以看到BBB级和B级并没有定价，但在接下来的几个季度中会有实质性的影响。压力在于CCC级。真的，我说我们已经定价了很多压力。几乎处于2022年峰值的水平。这绝不是自满。未来支持将来自那个领域，我们看到压力正在被定价，那里压力较小。
ONLY GOING FROM 1100 TO 1000 FOR EXAMPLE WHICH WOULD STILL BE DISTRESSED. LISA: TALKING WITH THE TECHNICALS IN A MARKET. WEST, THE FUNDAMENTALS. AT WHAT POINT DO THESE CRIMP THE AMBITIONS OF THE TECH SECTOR. THAT'S THE ULTIMATE QUESTION WE ARE SEEING REFLECTED IN PUSHBACK'S EVALUATIONS OF SOME OF THE IPO'S PEOPLE WERE EXPECTING LATER THIS YEAR. MAX: ON THE FUNDAMENTAL SIDE I WOULDN'T REALLY SAY ANYTHING IS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED OVER THE LAST FOUR WEEKS AND YET YOU'VE SEEN 700 TO 1100 SO IT IS INCREDIBLY TECHNICALLY DRIVEN MARKET AND THAT IS WHERE THE SUPPORT COMES FROM.
例如，仅仅从1100降到1000，这仍然是困境。丽莎：与市场技术面交谈。西部，基本面。在什么时候这些会制约科技行业的雄心？这是我们看到的最终问题，反映在一些IPO的回撤评估上，人们预计今年晚些时候会有这些IPO。马克斯：在基本面方面，我不会说过去四周有什么根本性的变化，然而你已经看到了700到1100的变化，所以这是一个极其受技术面驱动的市场，这也是支持的来源。
I DON'T THINK YOU CAN PROBABLY LOOK AT ANYTHING FUNDAMENTAL OR A FUNDAMENTAL CATALYST MAY BE ASIDE FROM THE EARNINGS SEASON IN THE NEXT TWO OR THREE WEEKS MAYBE COMBING SOME NERVES AROUND AI PROFITABILITY AROUND THE SIDE AS WELL. I DO THINK IT IS MOSTLY REALLY ABOUT POSITIONING AND TECHNICALS RIGHT NOW. WHETHER THAT'S IN EQUITIES OR CREDIT BECAUSE WHEN YOU LOOK YOU'RE SAYING AT WHAT POINT DOES THAT CREDIT SPREAD WIDENING AT WHAT POINT WHEN YOU LOOK AT HIGH YIELD OR EVEN CREDIT OVERALL.
我认为你不太可能看到任何基本面因素，或者在接下来两到三周的财报季之外，可能存在一个基本催化剂，也许是围绕AI盈利能力的担忧。同时我也认为目前主要关乎的是头寸和技术面，无论是在股票还是信用市场，因为当你审视时，你会问：信用利差将在何时扩大？当你观察高收益债或整体信用市场时。
THERE IS BARELY ANY NEED FOR THAT INFORMATION. I WAS DISAGREE WHEN THEY SAY HIGH YIELD SPREADS THAT'S A LEADING INDICATOR OF THINGS TO COME IN BROADER RISK APPETITE. THAT AT LEAST EMPIRICALLY WE CAN REALLY SEE IS THAT HIGH YIELD SPREADS ARE MOSTLY DOING THE SAME AS EQUITIES AND A TECHNICAL WHEN YOU LOOK AT VICKS. THEY BARELY DONE ANYTHING. BUT 20 IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS IS NOTHING. LOOK AT THE AVERAGE IF YOU TAKE THE CORRELATION EFFECT OUT YOU WILL SEE THE LOWER OF ALL THE LOWER
其实几乎没有必要获取这些信息。我不同意他们说高收益利差是更广泛风险偏好未来走势的领先指标。至少从经验来看，我们可以看到高收益利差的表现与股市大致相同，而技术面上，当你查看VIX（恐慌指数）时，它几乎没什么变化。但在大局中，20%微不足道。看看平均值，如果你剔除相关性效应，你会发现所有数据中的较低值。
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