Ledger供应链遭硬件植入攻击，超1亿美元被盗

Bankless Nation, it is the third week of Downtober. We are We are not getting October. It is look like October is not on the menu. Kind of was the same exact thing that happened last year. Uh happy one-year anniversary, Ryan, this week of 1010 that happened 1 year and 5 days ago. Uh wow. It's it's been a while.

You said you said this was like last year, but like last year was a lot worse than this. I just like to say. I mean, we're not that down that much. Like last year was like the end October last year started with a hint of bullishness and then quickly reversed course to be very very red. And so that is a repeat of last year.

Last year, Bitcoin started at like 120,000 and then ended at like

80 or 90,000 or something. Yeah. uh and we started this month or even last month in 60,000s and we're ending 80,000 uh last month and so the direction of travel is quite different.

Every month we start out with the roll-ups saying the words October

curses the month. Okay. and it's bound to be a downtober instead or like a everyone everyone in crypto does that in addition in addition to downtober in the crypto markets we also got a flush coming out of the AI sector of the traditional stock markets both in the United States equities markets but also the Korean stock market Korean stock market down 23% blowing back into the NASDAQ and the S&P the AI credit part of the uh the AI infrastructure buildout starting to show some cracks and maybe is blowing back into into Bitcoin into crypto or maybe not.

Ryan has a take.

I do have a take on that. I don't know if it's uh the best informed take, but I do have a take, David. Also, I have a take on the attack on the Ledger wallet supply chain. Okay. Somebody was implementing a spy sort of device inside of Ledger wallets, the hardware wallets you guys know, that would read your seed phrase during setup and beam it to some hackers that would then steal your funds. over 100 million in funds stolen this way.

How deep does this attack go? We're also going to talk about the Bank of America. Apparently, they had been ignoring some suspicious activity, a little bit of terrorism, a little bit of uh drug cartels, moneyaundering,

a little bit of crime.

Yeah. 5 billion worth. And they were fined by Fininsson this week. CZ has some thoughts on that fine actually, having been there before. What else we got? Richard Hart, we have not talked about that name in a very very very long time. Good riddance as well. Uh was arrested in Istanbul on an interpole red notice. Uh the fi the law finally caught up to him. We're going to talk about the saga and how it all concludes.

And I have a take about the hexagons that I want to share with you as well when we get there. Can't wait.

And then we're also I'm going to talk to Ryan about paper trade. What is this thingy? What the heck is this? I know Ryan has been just dying to get his hands on a way to go 1,00x long in any particular direction. So, we're going to talk about what what it's been like in paper trade 10 days in or so. But let's start in the crypto markets. Bitcoin is down 2.5% on the week to 82,500. I think we're actually are recovering a little bit at the time of recording.

Uh at least some of the some of the down market coins. Uh but overall down 2% on the week. Uh, I think there was a lot of bullishness as the Bitcoin price broke through the previous May time May highs of this year into 85 $87,000. Uh, we are now below the the May highs and so people are now worried about I don't think we're worried about setting a lower low, but I think people are worried about setting a higher low, but going down nonetheless. like the whole Ben Coway and bearish until the midterms take seems to be coming back into focus, back into view.

Uh, and so

I thought he reversed on that though. He did reverse on that, right?

He didn't quite reverse on it. He said that he was wrong about getting new highs above the May highs, but he he still like held out like room for like the midterms could still be rough. I was just wrong about having like a new high set in this year.

Yeah. Well, maybe this is part of a midterm selloff, of course. So, uh, on poly markets, 64% chance the Democrats take the Senate right now. A 91% chance the Democrats take the House. So, this could be a blue sweep coming in early November.

Imagine that the crypto assets want that. Like the the over the last like month or so, we have to have seen like Bitcoin and other crypto assets just price in a Democrat win, right?

Yeah. I wonder. But I mean, like, why would that be so negative for crypto at this point? I could understand why a

um, you know, you know, a crypto disparaging president would be incredibly negative for crypto, but it's not like we have any laws in Congress, right? Clarity is dead.

What does crypto have? Yeah, I don't I don't know that this would be so bearish for for crypto.

Yeah. I mean, traders could just be trading it, right? Like I agree with you, the fundamental analysis. I don't think the Democrats are going to come in and be like, "All right, let's rip everything about crypto out." I don't think they care that much. Uh they're mostly indifferent.

They're focused on AI right now.

Yeah. They're focus AI is like the flack. Yeah.

Yeah. It really has. I was going to say I I think because um part of the reason the vibe seems so down down this week is not just because of Bitcoin. That's only actually off 2 and a half%. It's because the rest of the alt market has continued to sell off. We started seeing that in the beginning of October and that has persisted. ETH down 7 and a half% on the week. But if you look at Soul, Ze hype near another 10% down and that's stacking on what the 10% 15% down from last week.

What's happening in the altcoin market right now?

Yeah, I I guess using Bitcoin as a barometer for the market isn't really that useful these days because Bitcoin has just been really slow. A lot of the activity has been down market in some of those coins that uh that you've mentioned near in the last like 2 hours. So we are recording right now at 11:30 a.m. Eastern time on Thursday. In the last two hours, some tokens have had a a rebound in strength. So VVV is up 10% on the day.

Near is actually back up above above uh $5. Uh so there's definitely been some strength in the market. Uh not everywhere. Uh Pump and Lit are both down 20%, Hype is down 10%. uh Zcash down 10%. Uh and so yeah, it's continues to be a flush from some of the strongest assets in the market, but you're still seeing some strength.

Do you remember what 2023 felt like? That was the early bull of last cycle. I want you to teleport your mind,

but we still felt like

That's right. That's right. That that was sort of the point Michael uh NATO made this week in the DeFi report and he looked at this uh number which is so in blue you see the 50we moving average for Bitcoin and the Bitcoin price in purple and at the time of inflection the same point at which we we we saw this time where things started to flip early bull bullish we did stay above the 50we moving average which is about 78k Bitcoin.

So, if we stay above the 50week moving average and the average will go down a little bit over time, that would still mean a Bitcoin over 75K. That said, though, um there was about 7 months of oscillation of sideways action of like we might call it Barts on the charts, right? Where it held this very narrow range. We had uh two times 17% corrections on Bitcoin and just 7 months of absolute chop even though it was the early bull market in 2023.

So that's kind of the way early bull markets feel. They feel sideways.

It's like Schroinger's market like is it a bull market? Is a bare market? You just don't know until hindsight.

Yeah. So still my base case is that we have broken the back of the bare market that we're not going back

for sure. We are not setting a lower low. We're not going down