Anthropic三季度营收170亿美元实现盈利，拟11月推进IPO
TSMC Earnings Beat; Anthropic Says It's Now Profitable
Anthropic IPO进展是加密与科技圈核心事件，直接关联一级/二级市场估值逻辑；叠加宏观波动背景，建议关注AI赛道资金流向与流动性变化。
STEPHEN: LIVE FROM BRUSSELS, THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. THE GLOBAL SELLOFF DEFENSE. -- DEEPENS. THE NIKKEI HALTED AFTER IT PLUMMETS BY MORE THAN 8% AS INVESTORS PRICE MORE RATE HIKES AFTER U.S. INFLATION COMES IN HOT. ANTHROPIC HAS TOLD POTENTIAL INVESTORS THAT THIRD QUARTER REVENUE HIT $17 BILLION AHEAD OF A BLOCKBUSTER IPO EXPECTED AS SOON AS NEXT MONTH. EU LEADERS TO MEET AS GERMANY PUSHES FOR MORE LIMITS ON CHINESE IMPORTS TO TACKLE THE BLOCKS RECORD TRADE DEFICIT.
斯蒂芬：来自布鲁塞尔的现场报道，这是彭博早间新闻：欧洲。全球抛售潮的防御——加剧。日经指数在暴跌超过8%后暂停交易，因为在美国通胀数据强劲出炉后，投资者为更多的加息定价。Anthropic已告知潜在投资者，第三季度收入达到170亿美元，这发生在一场预计最快下个月进行的重磅IPO之前。欧盟领导人将举行会议，因为德国推动对中国进口商品施加更多限制，以应对创纪录的贸易逆差。
BREAKING EARNINGS NEWS THIS MORNING. THIS FROM ERICKSON. THIRD QUARTER ADJUSTED EARNINGS COMING IN AT OVER 10 BILLION SWEDISH KRONA. HIGHER THAN HAD BEEN EXPECTED BY THE CONSENSUS ESTIMATES. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE MOVES THIS MORNING IN TERMS OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT OF REORGANIZATION. 17% MARGIN. IT'S WITHIN THE LONG-TERM GOAL TO BE WITHIN THE RANGE. ESTIMATE WAS 14.3%. THIS IS THE FIRST EARNINGS REPORT UNDER THE NEW CEO AS WE ARE LOOKING AT THE OPERATING MARGINS COMING IN STRONGER-THAN-EXPECTED.
今晨突发财报新闻。来自埃里克森的报道。第三季度调整后收益超过100亿瑞典克朗。高于共识估计的预期。我们今晨关注的是重组公告带来的动向。利润率17%。这在长期目标范围内。估计值为14.3%。这是在新CEO领导下的第一份财报报告，我们看到运营利润率强于预期。
THROUGHOUT -- 23.1%. THE ESTIMATE HAD BEEN FOR 19.4%. THAT'S THE LATEST MOVEMENT THAT WE HAVE. WE WILL BE DIGGING INTO THOSE NUMBERS WITH THE CEO A LITTLE LATER IN THE SHOW. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE BROADER MOVES ON MARKETS THIS MORNING. SELLOFF IN ASIA. MSCI INDEX DOWN OVER 2%. IT HAD BEEN 3% LOWER IN THE SESSION, ON TRACK FOR ITS LOWEST CLOSE SINCE JULY. EUROPEAN STOCK FUTURES SHARPLY LOWER. NASDAQ FUTURES ALSO IN THE RED.
贯穿——23.1%。估计值为19.4%。这是我们最新的动向。我们将在节目稍后深入探讨这些数字与CEO的交流。让我们看看今晨市场的更广泛动向。亚洲抛售。MSCI指数下跌超过2%。盘中曾下跌3%，有望创下自7月以来的最低收盘。欧洲股票期货大幅走低。纳斯达克期货也处于下跌状态。
THE CHIP FOCUSED SELLOFF PARTICULARLY HITTING THE NASDAQ INDEX. FUTURES ARE OFF THE LOWS WE HAD EARLIER IN THE SESSION. WE'VE GOT OIL PRICES LOWER TODAY. BRENT CRUDE TRADING OVER 104 DOLLARS AS YOU CAN SEE DESPITE THE NEWS OF A CONTAINER SHIP SINKING IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ. THE EURO GETTING SUPPORT FROM A WEAKER DOLLAR. U.S. I PRINT. WE HAVE EURO BOUNCING BACK A LITTLE TODAY. THE 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD RALLYING STRONGLY TODAY.
专注于芯片的抛售尤其打击了纳斯达克指数。期货已从盘中早些时候的低点回升。我们今天看到油价下跌。布伦特原油交易价格超过104美元，正如你所见，尽管有货船在霍尔木兹海峡沉没的消息。欧元因美元走弱而获得支撑。美国通胀数据公布。我们今天看到欧元略有反弹。10年期国债收益率今日强势上涨。
A PUT -- BASIS POINTS THE 10 YEAR. YIELD AT 5.1%. 7:00 U.K. TIME. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION GDP FIGURES FOR THE U.K.. EU SUMMIT TAKING PLACE IN BRUSSELS. COMPETITIVENESS TRADE AND THE BUDGET ON THE AGENDA. LATER ON, WE GET U.S. RETAIL SALES. JOBLESS NUMBERS AND PPI ALL TO COME. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY AHEAD. KOSPI PLUMMETED AS MUCH AS A PERCENT, SET FOR ITS WEAKEST CLOSE SINCE APRIL. LET'S GET AN UPDATE FROM OUR MARKETS REPORTER ANTHONY STEPHENS.
看跌期权——基点的10年期。收益率5.1%。英国时间7:00。英国工业生产GDP数据。欧盟峰会正在布鲁塞尔举行。竞争力、贸易和预算是议程内容。稍后，我们将看到美国零售销售数据。失业人数和PPI都将公布。让我们为你准备好迎接新的一天。韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）暴跌多达1%，有望创下自4月以来的最弱收盘。让我们从我们的市场记者安东尼·史蒂文斯那里获取最新进展。
HI ANTHONY. ANTHONY: WE NEED TO GET OUR HEAD AROUND THE NEWEST CORRELATION IN THE TECH TRADE. THAT IS THE BLOWUP IN THE CREDIT SPACE VERSUS THE DRAWDOWN IN EQUITIES THE KOSPI. WE HAD THIS CONCERN GROWING AS THE STRUGGLE TO RAISE MONEY. THIS IS THE CREDIT CONCERN THAT WILL HARM NEW AI DEBT. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT THE CALENDAR LOOKS LIKE. WHILE THERE IS KNOWN NEW AI DEBT, YOU CANNOT HAVE CAPITAL EXPENDITURE.
你好，安东尼。安东尼：我们需要理解科技股中最新的相关性。即信贷市场的爆发与韩国综合指数（KOSPI）等股市的下跌之间的对比。随着融资困难的加剧，这种担忧日益增长。这是将损害新AI债务的信贷问题。观察日历上的情况会很有趣。尽管存在已知的AI新债务，但你无法进行资本支出。
FLIP THE BOARD. YOU CAN SEE THE EXTENT OF THE DAMAGE ACROSS ASIA. DOUBLE-DIGIT LOSSES ACROSS A RANGE OF VERY BIG CAP NAMES. WHETHER YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT KOREA OR SAMSUNG, DOWN ALMOST 9%. LENOVO IN HONG KONG. FINALLY THE ONE COMPANY THAT COULD BAIL US OUT IS TSMC. IT HAS RESULTED IN A COUPLE HOURS. THE GUIDANCE WILL BE INTERESTING. SO WILL THE CAPEX. IT'S ALL IN THE HANDS OF TSMC AS TRADERS LOOK TO RISK MANAGER AGGRESSIVELY.
翻转棋盘。你可以看到亚洲各地的受损程度。一系列大型市值股票出现两位数的损失。无论是谈论韩国还是三星，都下跌了近9%。联想在港股的表现。最后，唯一能拯救我们的公司是台积电（TSMC）。这导致了几小时的波动。指引和资本支出都将备受关注。这一切都掌握在台积电手中，而交易员正试图积极管理风险。
WE ARE SEEING SIZABLE SELLING IN KOREA TO START THE DAY. STEPHEN: WHAT WAS IT ABOUT THE COREWEAVE STORY THAT HAS SEEN SUCH A BIG HIT TO SENTIMENT? PARTICULARLY THE MOVE IN THEIR BONDS.
我们今天在韩国看到了可观的抛售。斯蒂芬：CoreWeave的故事中有什么因素导致了情绪的大幅打击？特别是其债券的走势。
IT TIES TOGETHER A COUPLE OF NARRATIVES IN THE MARKET. MARKETS ARE WORRIED ABOUT HIGHER RATES. IT'S DOWN THE RISK CURVE IN TERMS OF AI TRADE. NOW THEY ARE FACING COMPETITION FROM THE LIKES OF GOOGLE AND MICROSOFT THAT HAVE THESE MODELS THAT COMPETE WITH ITS MAIN CUSTOMER. THE MARKET IS NOT IMPRESSED BY THE REVENUE PACE AT OPENAI OR ANTHROPIC. THAT'S FEEDING MOST AGGRESSIVELY INTO BORROWING MONEY TO LEND COMPUTE OUT TO THOSE.
它将市场上的几个叙事联系在一起。市场担心利率上升。这在AI交易的风险曲线上有所体现。现在他们面临着来自谷歌和微软等公司的竞争，这些公司拥有与其主要客户竞争的模式。市场对OpenAI或Anthropic的收入增速并不满意。这促使人们最激进地借钱，以便向这些公司提供计算资源。
THAT DYNAMIC IS STARTING TO GET CIRCULAR IN A VICIOUS CYCLE. STEPHEN: ANTHONY STEPHENS, THANK YOU FOR BRINGING US UP-TO-DATE ON A DAY WHERE WE ARE SEEING SHARP DROPS ON EQUITY MARKETS. ANTHROPIC'S REVENUE HIT $16.8 BILLION IN THE THIRD QUARTER, TURNING THE COMPANY PROFITABLE ON AN ADJUSTED BASIS. THE COMPANY IS NOW GENERATING POSITIVE FREE CASH FLOW, STRENGTHENING ITS PITCH TO INVESTORS AHEAD OF A PLANNED IPO. ANTHROPIC COULD BEGIN MARKETING ITS IPO AS SOON AS THE WEEK OF NOVEMBER 9.
这种动态开始陷入恶性循环的怪圈。斯蒂芬：安东尼·斯蒂芬斯，感谢你为我们带来最新动态。今天我们在股市看到了急剧下跌。Anthropic在第三季度的收入达到168亿美元，使其在调整后基础上实现盈利。该公司现在产生了正的自由现金流，在其计划的首次公开募股（IPO）之前增强了其对投资者的吸引力。Anthropic最快可能在11月9日那一周开始营销其IPO。
THE U.S. CONSUMER PRICES HAVE ADVANCED AT THE FASTEST PACE IN FIVE MONTHS, DRIVEN BY A SURGE IN FUEL COSTS. THE READING IS FEELING CONCERNS OVER FURTHER INTEREST RATE HIKES. THE CHICAGO FED PRESIDENT SAYS HE FOUND THE NUMBERS DISCOURAGING. THE FED VICE CHAIR BELIEVES THERE'S CURRENTLY NO NEED FOR ACTION.
美国消费者物价以五个月来的最快速度上涨，受燃料成本激增推动。这一读数引发了对进一步加息的担忧。芝加哥联邦储备银行行长表示他发现这些数据令人沮丧。美联储副主席认为目前无需采取行动。
I THINK WE HAVE TIME TO WAIT AND SEE HOW FINANCIAL CONDITION AND THE ECONOMY EVOLVES BEFORE WE DECIDE THAT WE NEED TO TAKE ANYMORE ACTION. I DON'T FEEL ANY URGENCY TOWARD TAKING FURTHER ACTION AT THIS POINT. STEPHEN: LET'S BRING IN VEN RAM FOR MORE. THE VERGING VIEWS FROM FED OFFICIALS. KEVIN WARSH EXPECTED TO SPEAK LATER TODAY. WHAT WILL INVESTORS BE LOOKING OUT FOR TO INDICATE THE FED'S NEXT STEPS?
我认为我们有时间观望，看看财务状况和经济将如何演变，然后再决定是否需要采取更多行动。目前我并不感到有采取进一步行动的紧迫感。斯蒂芬：让我们请文·拉姆带来更多观点。美联储官员的观点存在分歧。凯文·沃什预计今天稍后发表讲话。投资者将关注哪些迹象以表明美联储的下一步举措？
GOOD MORNING. I DON'T THINK KEVIN WARSH OR ANY OTHER FED OFFICIAL IS GOING TO GIVE THE GAME AWAY IN TERMS OF WHAT THEY SHOULD EXPECT FOR OCTOBER. THE MARKETS ARE THINKING, THERE'S A 25% CHANCE THAT THEY WILL GO IN OCTOBER. THEY WILL RAISE RATES IN OCTOBER. THEY WERE PRICING IN HARDLY ANY CHANCE OF A HIKE IN OCTOBER PRIOR TO THE INFLATION DATA. THE MARKETS ARE THINKING, IS THAT INFLATION GOING TO BE HOT ENOUGH FOR THE FED TO BE RAISING RATES IMMINENTLY?
早上好。我不认为凯文·沃什或其他任何美联储官员会透露他们在十月应该期待什么。市场认为，他们十月份加息的概率为25%。在通胀数据公布之前，市场几乎未定价十月份加息的可能性。市场在想，通胀是否会足够强劲，促使美联储即将加息？
I DON'T THINK THEY WILL RAISE RATES IN OCTOBER. IT'S MORE LIKELY THAT THEY WILL GO IN DECEMBER. IF YOU LOOK AT THE DOT PLOT, THEY VINDICATED ONE MORE RATE INCREASE FOR 2026. IF THEY RAISE RATES THIS MONTH, WE'VE GOT TWO MORE INFLATION PRINTS COMING DOWN THE YEAR IN THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. THAT WOULDN'T LEAVE THEM WITH MUCH ROOM BECAUSE THEY WILL HAVE DELIVERED WHAT THEY PROMISED IN THE DOT PLOT. I THINK THAT THEY WILL HOLD FIRE IN OCTOBER AND GO IN DECEMBER.
我不认为他们会在十月加息。更有可能的是他们在十二月采取行动。如果你看点阵图，他们为2026年预留了另一次加息的空间。如果他们本月加息，今年剩余时间里还将发布两次通胀数据。这将不留太多余地，因为他们已经兑现了点阵图中承诺的内容。我认为他们会按兵不动，等到十二月再行动。
STEPHEN: OK. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US. EUROPEAN LEADERS ARE GATHERING IN BRUSSELS FOR A TWO DAY SUMMIT , ONE OF THE EU'S KEY FOCUS AREAS WILL BEGET YOU TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA AS YOUR ME PREPARES. MORE IMPORTS FROM BEIJING. NOW HERE'S OUR CHIEF EUROPE CORRESPONDENT FOR MORE ON THE STORY. THE TRADE COMMISSIONER WAS IN CHINA LAST WEEK AND CAME AWAY WITH A WAY -- A RANGE OF DEALS. WHAT DOES GERMANY WANT MORE NOW ON TOP OF THOSE DEALS?
斯蒂芬：好的。非常感谢你加入我们。欧洲领导人正在布鲁塞尔举行为期两天的峰会，欧盟的一个关键焦点领域将是你们与中国的贸易逆差，因为你们的媒体正在准备报道从北京进口更多商品。现在请看我们的首席欧洲记者对此事的更多报道。欧盟贸易专员上周访问了中国，并达成了一系列协议。除了这些协议之外，德国现在还想要什么？
YOU SEAL THE 180 DEGREES FROM THE GERMAN POSITION VERSUS ITS HISTORIC POSITION WHICH HAS ALWAYS BEEN FOR FREE MARKET OPEN TRADE PARTICULARLY WITH CHINA. YOU ARE SEEING A REAL SHIFT FROM THE GOVERNMENT AND AN INCREASINGLY SHIFT FROM THE AUTO INDUSTRY ITSELF. THERE'S A FRACTURE WITHIN THE INDUSTRY ITSELF. THERE'S THE VOLUME PLAYERS WHO WANT TO DEFEND THE EUROPEAN MARKET FROM A LOT OF THESE LOWER-COST EV'S. THEN YOU HAVE LUXURY ADDITIONS, THINGS LIKE MERCEDES THAT ARE MORE CONCERNED WITH KEEPING TRADE OPEN ACROSS THE WORLD.
这与德国一贯支持自由贸易、特别是与中国进行自由贸易的历史立场形成了180度的转变。你看到了政府以及汽车行业自身日益明显的转变。行业内部出现了裂痕。有销量主导者希望保护欧洲市场免受大量低成本电动汽车的冲击；而像梅赛德斯这样的豪华品牌则更关心在全球范围内保持贸易开放。
IT'S A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT. WHEN YOU HAVE THE FRENCH AND GERMANS SINGING FROM THE SAME SHEET ON TRADE, YOU MIGHT GET PROGRESS. TRYING TO DEVELOP THIS NEW TOOL THAT WOULD MIRROR THE SO-CALLED AMERICAN 301 TARIFF REGIME WHICH WOULD GIVE THEM THE ABILITY TO MOVE MUCH FASTER ON OTHER AREAS. THE GERMANS WOULD LIKE TO, -- PHARMACEUTICALS AND MACHINERY. THESE ARE THE HISTORIC PLACES THAT GERMANY HAS BEEN STRONG. WE CAUGHT UP WITH THE CEO OF MERCEDES-BENZ YESTERDAY, THE HEAD OF THE LOBBY GROUP FOR THE EUROPEAN AUTO SECTOR.
这是一个重大转变。当法国和德国在贸易问题上步调一致时，你可能会看到进展。他们正试图开发一种新工具，以镜像所谓的美国301关税制度，这将赋予他们在其他领域更快行动的能力。德国人希望如此——特别是在制药和机械领域。这些是德国一直具有优势的领域。昨天我们采访了梅赛德斯-奔驰的首席执行官，以及欧洲汽车行业游说团体的负责人。
HAVE A LISTEN TO WHAT HE HAD TO SAY ABOUT THE HYBRID DEAL.
听听他对混合动力协议的看法。
WE THINK IT'S A PRAGMATIC AGREEMENT TO CREATE A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD HERE AND HAVE A LITTLE BIT OF A PAUSE IN THE MARKET DEVELOPMENT. SO WE WELCOME THIS AGREEMENT. BUT ULTIMATELY, IT'S UP TO THE EU TO IMPROVE ITS COMPETITIVENESS. WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN OVER TIME IS THAT OEMS FROM OTHER COUNTRIES THAT WANT TO DO BUSINESS IN EUROPE, THEY WILL LOCALIZE THEIR ACTIVITIES HERE AS WELL AS WE HAVE DONE IN MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD FOR A LONG TIME INCLUDING CHINA.
我们认为这是一项务实的协议，旨在在此创造公平的竞争环境，并在市场发展方面稍作暂停。因此我们欢迎这一协议。但最终，提高竞争力取决于欧盟自身。我认为随着时间的推移，那些希望在欧洲开展业务的其他国家的原始设备制造商（OEM），也将像我们在全球各地市场（包括中国）长期所做的那样，在这里本地化他们的业务活动。
STEPHEN: THAT'S THE PERSPECTIVE FROM THE EUROPEAN AUTO INDUSTRY. I THINK THE
斯蒂芬：这是来自欧洲汽车行业的视角。我认为
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力