ASML上调2026年销售预期，AI需求致产能不足

Bloomberg Audio Studios podcasts, radio, news. Bloomberg Tech is live from the heart of Silicon Valley with Ed Lello in San Francisco. This is Bloomberg Tech. Coming up, ASML raises its sales forecast for 2026 and aims to increase production of its chipmaking machines to keep up with soaring AI spending. Plus, we hear from Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong, fresh on the heels of announcing plans to invest $2 billion in European deals.

And we take you inside of the making of Grand Theft Auto 6, expected to be the biggest video game blockbuster of all time. Okay, welcome to Wednesday. Taking a look at shares of ASML up 2.6% at one point in the session up 3.6% in Europe in Amsterdam at one point fell 1%. The producer of lithography machines chipmaking tools to manufacture cutting edge chips raised its sales outlook but said it's struggling to meet demand.

Joining us with the deets Bloomberg Sarah Jacob who is in Amsterdam for ASML this is all about capacity right they had plans to boost capacity. They're saying that they're still in this place where demand is running ahead of their ability to supply. Give us the basics.

Hi. Yes, that's right. Uh so ASML again basically just you know like you said raising the low end of its annual sales forecast for 2026 because it's seeing soaring artificial intelligence link demand. The CEO today saying that they're getting he's getting you know customers who are asking for you know more tools every day and it's become the key focus of life of ASML to get that capacity going. Just as a reminder in July, ASML said that you know it expected about uh 65 units in terms of capacity for 2026, 30% increase on that for 2027 and it was investigating a further 30% increase for 2028.

Today it says that those plans and those current supply uh patterns would not be enough to fulfill demand uh from what it's hearing from customers. So now they're investig investigating going beyond 30 uh 30% in 2028. So that's kind of interesting because it's it's hearing more from its customers in terms of the short-term and the medium-term requirements.

Away from the financials, China is the story, right? There is a piece of proposed legislation to deepen restrictions, export restrictions on DUV immersion machines to China. This came up in the call. What did ASML have to say about China, Sarah?

Yes. So, China again the third largest market for ASML in the third quarter after South Korea and Taiwan. uh still a significant contributor. And then we spoke to Roger Desen who is the CFO of ASML in a call with journalists today and he basically said according to him they believe that the match act is unbalanced. And he he said that you know by introducing such restrictions essentially you could slow uh um it going into China but it would sort of increase but not stop what China can do in developing technology and might actually you know sort of help uh homegrown technology in that regard.

Uh, and by preventing, you know, ASML's ability to service its own tools in China, there could potentially be, you know, intellectual property leakage or theft. Bloomberg Sarah Jacobs out in Amsterdam. Very long day for you. ASML, Europe's most valuable company reporting its earnings. Let's hear from ASML CEO Christoph said in a video released with the company's results that customers are asking every day for more tools to meet their own needs.

Today they expect that their supply will not meet the demand at least until 2028. So this is a very very strong demand on their side. So a lot of our discussion with our customer now are shifting in fact beyond 2027 lot of order intake for 2028 but also some strong interest to already place order for 2029 and sometime even 2030.

So ASML already talking to its customers about 2029. Let's discuss what that means for ASML, the AI boom with Antella, Franilo, an Listen, and in Tasa S. San Paulo. This again, it's about capacity, right? And I think what what the market's really struggling with here is like your customers are asking for more. You're trying to address the capacity issue. Where can they find more capacity?

Hi. Um, hi. Thank you for this opportunity. Uh but uh this is a key point for them because it's an opportunity uh um to increase um their capacity to match the strong orders demand. What can they do? They can um optimize uh their um um production. They can release a product upgrades. they can uh they are already uh receiving um um u strong uh strong demand for productivity uh for product upgrades um uh which is uh the reason why in the third quarter the um uh um installed base management uh where I expected.

So uh they are uh really uh pushing their effort to increase the capacity which remains for them and for the whole uh value chain the key constraint to match demand which remains very strong.

And how unusual is it for ASML or anyone in the the the chipm equipment space to already be talking to customers about 2029 2030. They haven't taken orders, right? They're pretty clear on that. But they are talking to customers about 2029 and 2030.

Yeah, this is uh you know something which is becoming quite uh you know uh common to hear from uh testing testing equipment players. Um um we heard from many of them um speaking about uh full uh capacity already reached in terms of orders for 2027 and still very stretched for 2028. Um you have to consider that we are um across an unprecedented uh tech um revolution with AI deployment. It's a multi-year upcycle. So uh it's um you know something that we have to look at a multi-year time horizon and therefore it's correct uh you know to look at 2029 to 2029 2030 and even beyond in their case considering the potential technolog technological upgrades they are implementing and the new initiatives they launched with with TSMC and uh and stronger.

And to let's talk about ASML's customers, right? We know who they are. High concentration, TSMC, Samsung, and Intel. Of those three, do we have a sense of who needs the these lithography machines most? Who who's pushing ASML hardest? uh they don't provide this information but uh we can deduct that memory makers are now running ahead of all the others. They confirmed that during the call um but also advanced logic um are needed for the um advanced chips.

So at the end it's something that is related to all the main um advanced chip manufacturers.

ASML is Europe's most valuable company publicly traded company. It's a stock that's up 67% year to date. But what I found interesting in kind of the bigger picture story of what's happening in the chip equipment makers um the semiconductor industry overall is airmail hit a record in June and it is essentially traded sideways since. It's made attempts to get to those levels but not hit fresh records since that that June 30th record.

Where's your head at with the valuation of this company right now um and and the forward trajectory of of its growth? Yeah, the um decline in the share price from the May pick is something that also um regarded the other um most of um semiconductor players. Uh but uh considering the strong earnings upgrades uh we have implemented since then now valuation look very appealing in my view. The stock is trading at multiples which are uh in line with the last five year average which in our view doesn't um take into consideration properly the fact that we are uh now in an upycle show.

So the stock should trade above the historical leverage. Moreover, uh the uh stock has almost closed the historical premium to the US peers uh which uh we also consider as um um not uh you know adequate. So for all these reasons we believe that um stock correction and on the other hand uh the uh strong earnings upgrades uh and the potential further upside ahead could uh could prompt a relating of the share price

and and let's talk about China. You heard Sarah's reporting on ASML's position uh on the match act and the burden that they feel it unduly places on them. China was 23%