印度外长称美印贸易谈判接近落地，中东局势推高油价
India Courts Global Investment Amid Escalating Protest Crackdown
涵盖地缘冲突对大宗商品定价的影响、美印关键贸易协定进展及全球贸易失衡现状，均为宏观交易核心变量，建议关注能源板块波动及新兴市场汇率风险。
I CAN ONLY TELL YOU IT IS HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. WE ARE VERY ENCOURAGED BY PLEASE LOOK AT WHAT MY TRADE STATEMENT IS SAYING IN PUBLIC, SAYING WE ARE KIND OF ALMOST THERE, WE JUST NEED TO FIGURE THIS OUT AND LET'S LEAVE IT AT THAT. I MEAN, I DON'T THINK YOU ARE GOING TO GET MORE OUT OF ME. PAUL: INDIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER SOUNDING CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC THAT DRAWN HOW TRADE TALKS WITH THE U.S. MAY BE NEARING A CONCLUSION.
我只能告诉你，它正朝着正确的方向前进。我们对……感到非常鼓舞，请看看我的贸易声明在公开场合说了什么，说我们差不多已经到位了，我们只需要弄清楚这一点，就到此为止吧。我的意思是，我不认为你能从我这里得到更多信息。保罗：印度外长谨慎乐观地认为，与美国进行的贸易谈判可能即将结束。
WE WILL BE LIVE IN NEW DELHI FOR DAY TWO OF THE BLOOMBERG NEWS ECONOMY FORUM. I AM PAUL ALLEN AND THIS IS "INSIGHT," WHERE WE DIVE DEEPER INTO THE STORIES THAT MATTER. ASIAN STOCKS POSTING MODEST GAINS AHEAD OF KEY U.S. INFLATION DATA AS EXPECTATIONS GROW THAT THE FEDERAL RESERVE MAY NOT NEED TO RAISE INTEREST RATES AGGRESSIVELY NEXT YEAR. OIL EDGING HIGHER AFTER YEMEN'S HOTUHIS RAMP UP ATTACKS ON SAUDI ARABIA, THE KINGDOM CONFIRMING THAT THE HEADQUARTERS OF OIL GIANT ARAMCO WERE HIT IN MISSILE STRIKES.
我们将在新德里进行彭博新闻经济论坛第二天的现场报道。我是保罗·艾伦，这是《洞察》，我们将深入探讨那些重要的故事。亚洲股市在美国关键通胀数据公布前小幅上涨，因为人们越来越预期美联储明年可能不需要激进加息。也门胡塞武装加大对沙特阿拉伯的袭击后，油价微涨，该国确认石油巨头沙特阿美总部在导弹袭击中受损。
OVER AT THE BLOOMBERG NEWS ECONOMY FORUM, WE WILL BE SPEAKING WITH THE CEO OF HITACHI ENERGY ABOUT HIS OUTLOOK ON AI AND DATA CENTER ELECTRICITY DEMAND. ALSO, A PANEL DISCUSSION ON THE SCRAMBLE FOR SELF-SUFFICIENCY FEATURING SINGAPORE'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER, THE INDIAN COMMERCE MINISTER, CANADA'S TRADE MINISTER, AND DP WORLD CEO. ♪ ALL RIGHT, LET'S GET YOU OVER TO NEW DELHI AT THE NEW ECONOMY FORUM, WHERE SHERY AHN IS STANDING BY.
在彭博新闻经济论坛上，我们将与日立能源的首席执行官交谈，讨论他对人工智能和数据中心电力需求的展望。此外，还将举行一场关于追求自给自足的竞赛的小组讨论，新加坡副总理、印度商务部长、加拿大贸易部长以及DP世界首席执行官将出席。♪ 好了，让我们转到新德里新经济论坛现场，谢丽安正在待命。
IT IS ALREADY A VERY BUSY DAY HERE, ESPECIALLY GIVEN HOW WE ARE TRYING TO DIGEST THE LATEST FROM THE MIDDLE EAST. OIL PRICES EDGING HIGHER TODAY AS TRADERS GRAPPLE WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY IN THE REGION. THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT SAYS ARAMCO'S EXECUTIVE HEADQUARTERS WERE HEADED ON TUESDAY IN THE MISSILE ATTACK BY YEMEN'S HO UTHIS MILITANTS, WHO HAVE RAMPED UP STRIKES ON THE KINGDOM. FOR MORE, ABEER ABU OMAR JOINS US LIVE FROM DUBAI.
今天已经是非常忙碌的一天，尤其是考虑到我们正努力消化来自中东的最新消息。随着该地区不确定性增加，交易员们应对不及，油价今日微涨。沙特政府表示，周二在也门胡塞武装分子对王国的袭击中，沙特阿美的执行总部遭到打击，他们加大了对王国的打击力度。更多详情，阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔从迪拜为我们发回现场报道。
HOW SERIOUS ARE THESE ATTACKS? ABEER: QUITE SERIOUS, QUITE AN ESCALATION THAT HAS BEEN RAMPING UP, STARTING WITH THE WE CAN'S ATTACKS -- WEEKEND'S ATTACKS AGAINST THE AIRPORT IN RIYADH. SAUDI ARAMCO IN TEHRAN, THE HEADQUARTERS, THE ADMIN OFFICE, NO CASUALTIES REPORTED. 4 INJURIES WERE REPORTED. A FIRE THAT WAS CONTAINED WAS ALSO REPORTED BUT THIS JUST GETS TO SHOW YOU HOW SERIOUS THE THREAT OF THE HOUTHIS ARE, THE FACT THAT THEY CAN REACH THOSE AREAS, AND NOT JUST RIYADH.
这些袭击有多严重？阿比尔：相当严重，这是一次不断升级的升级，始于本周末对利雅得机场的攻击。沙特阿美在德黑兰（注：此处原文可能有误，通常指沙特境内设施），总部，行政办公室，没有报告伤亡。据报道有4人受伤。还报告了一起被控制的火灾，但这只是向你展示了胡塞武装威胁的严重性，他们能够到达那些地区，而不仅仅是利雅得。
WE REPORTED THAT THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT WAS ABLE TO INTERCEPT DRONES AND MISSILES THAT WERE ALSO TARGETING CITIES, NOT JUST IN TEHRAN, BUT ALSO IN IRAN. OVERALL, THIS IS QUITE A SERIOUS ESCALATION. THIS IS COMING AT A CRUCIAL TIME FOR SAUDI ARABIA. AS WE HAVE NOTED MULTIPLE TIMES OVER THE WEEK AS A GEARS UP FOR MAJOR FINANCIAL EVENTS TOWARDS THE END OF THIS MONTH, OF COURSE. AND OF COURSE, THE FACT THAT THE TARGETING OF ENERGY FACILITIES STILL GOES ON NOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MORE UPSIDE TO ENERGY PRICES AND YOU ARE ALREADY SEEING BRENT CRUDE EDGING HIGHER TODAY DUE TO MULTIPLE REASONS.
我们报道说，沙特政府能够拦截那些不仅针对德黑兰、也针对伊朗其他城市的无人机和导弹。总体而言，这是一次相当严重的升级。此时正值沙特阿拉伯的关键时刻。正如我们本周多次指出的那样，沙特正在为月底即将举行的大型金融活动做准备。当然，能源设施仍遭打击的事实有可能进一步推高能源价格，由于多重原因，布伦特原油今日已小幅走高。
THIS IS ONE OF THEM. THE BIG QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WHETHER THE UNITED STATES IS GOING TO GET INVOLVED. PRESIDENT TRUMP IN A TRUTH SOCIAL POST NOTED HOW SERIOUS THIS IS AN SAID HE WOULD ASK TURKEY'S ERDOGAN TO GET INVOLVED IN FENDING OF THE HOH THIS -- HOUTHIS FOR SAUDI ARABIA BUT DID NOT GIVE ANY INDICATION THAT HE WOULD GET INVOLVED.
这是原因之一。接下来的关键问题是，美国是否会介入。特朗普总统在“真实社交”（Truth Social）帖子中指出此事的严重性，并表示他将请土耳其总统埃尔多安介入，协助沙特阿拉伯抵御胡塞武装（Houthis），但并未表明他会亲自介入。
NOT SURPRISING GIVEN HOW WE ARE SEEING U.S. GAS PRICES ALSO RISING. WHEN IT COMES TO SAUDI ARABIA, HOW BIG OF A CHALLENGE IS TO SPREAD THE CROWN PRINCE, MOHAMMAD BIN SALMAN, AT A TIME WHEN HE IS TRYING TO DIVERSIFY THE ECONOMY? ANY MORE INDICATIONS OF WHAT MORE MEASURES HE COULD TAKE IN THE REGION? ABEER: ESSENTIALLY, WHAT WE HAVE REPORTED ON OVER THE PAST DECADE OR SO IS THAT SAUDI ARABIA IS AT A PRETTY CONTENTIOUS TIME IN ITS CYCLE AS A COUNTRY RIGHT NOW BECAUSE IT IS GOING THROUGH THESE ECONOMIC PLANS TO DIVERSIFY AWAY FROM OIL, VISION 2030 OF COURSE, AND ALL THE SUBSEQUENT FACTORS THAT COME INTO THIS VISION.
鉴于我们也看到美国汽油价格上涨，这并不令人意外。就沙特阿拉伯而言，在王储穆罕默德·本·萨勒曼试图实现经济多元化的同时，他面临多大的挑战？是否有更多迹象表明他在该地区可能采取哪些额外措施？阿比尔：基本上，我们在过去十年左右报道的情况是，沙特阿拉伯目前正处于其国家周期中一个相当充满争议的时期，因为它正通过一系列经济计划摆脱对石油的依赖，当然包括“2030愿景”，以及与此愿景相关的所有后续因素。
SAUDI ARABIA HAS DEEPENED ITS BUDGET DEFICIT FORECAST FOR THE YEAR. IT IS NOT A SPECIFIC SITUATION TO SAUDI ARABIA. QATAR LOST 42% OF REVENUE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE YEAR DUE TO THE REGIONAL SITUATION. SAUDI ARABIA HAS BEEN TRYING TO DIVERSIFY. IT HAS BEEN TRYING TO COME UP WITH THESE MAJOR GIGE PLANTS, AS WE HAVE BEEN CALLING THEM. THIS COMES AT A PRECARIOUS TIME BECAUSE SAUDI ARABIA IS BEING SINGLED OUT BY THE HOUTHIS.
沙特阿拉伯已上调了今年的财政赤字预测。这种情况并非沙特阿拉伯独有。卡塔尔因地区局势导致上半年收入损失42%。沙特阿拉伯一直在努力多元化，并试图推出这些大型项目，我们一直称之为“吉达计划”。此时正值微妙时刻，因为沙特阿拉伯正遭到胡塞武装的单独针对。
THIS IS NOT A NEW WAR. THIS HAS BEEN GOING ON BETWEEN THE HOUTHIS AND SAUDI ARABIA FOR OVER A DECADE AT THIS POINT BUT THE ESCALATION IN THE CONTEXT OF THE WIDER WAR BETWEEN THE UNITED STATES AND IRAN WITH DISRUPTIONS IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ EVEN ESCALATING FURTHER, SO THIS PUTS SAUDI ARABIA AND A QUITE DIFFICULT POSITION AND PUTS THE CROWN PRINCE IN QUITE A DIFFICULT POSITION. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THE KINGDOM WILL REACH OUT TO NEIGHBORS, REACH OUT TO ALLIES IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD.
这不是一场新战争。到目前为止，胡塞武装与沙特阿拉伯之间的冲突已持续十多年，但在美伊更大规模战争的背景下，霍尔木兹海峡的局势出现中断并进一步升级，这使得沙特阿拉伯陷入非常困难的境地，也让王储处于极为艰难的处境。目前尚不清楚王国是否会向邻国伸出援手，或向世界各地的盟友寻求支持。
QUITE A VOLATILE SITUATION FOR THE TIME BEING.
目前局势相当动荡。
MIDDLE EAST CORRESPONDENT ABEER ABU OMAR WITH THE LATEST ON THE ONGOING IRAN WAR. AND OF COURSE, STAYING WITH GEOPOLITICS, INDIA'S TOP DIPLOMAT HAS CALLED FOR A REALISTIC APPROACH TO DEALING WITH THE U.S. AS WASHINGTON RECALIBRATE ITS APPROACH TO THE WORLD. SPEAKING AT THE BLOOMBERG NEWS ECONOMY FORUM IN NEW DELHI, THE FOREIGN MINISTER ALSO TOLD US TRADE IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE TRUMP ADMINISTRATION ARE AT AN ADVANCED STAGE.
中东记者阿比尔·阿布·奥马尔报道伊朗战争的最新进展。当然，继续关注地缘政治，印度最高外交官呼吁以务实的方式应对美国，因为华盛顿正在重新调整其全球战略。在德里举行的彭博新闻经济论坛上，这位外交部长还告诉我们，与特朗普政府的贸易谈判已进入高级阶段。
I THINK A LOT OF WHAT AMERICA IS REVISING ARE ITS ALLIANCES, THE TERMS OF ITS TRADING RELATIONSHIPS. THE SENTIMENT IS MOST STRONGLY FELT WITH EUROPE. TO SOME EXTENT, SOME COUNTRIES IN EAST ASIA. WE DON'T, WE HAVE MANY ISSUES WE ARE WORKING ON WITH THE UNITED STATES, BUT WE DON'T HAVE AN ISSUE OF, YOU KNOW, THE TERMS OF ALLIANCE, BECAUSE WE ARE NOT -- WE ARE A COUNTRY THAT HAS A STRONG STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP WITH THE U.S.
我认为，美国正在修订的许多内容是其联盟关系及其贸易关系的条款。这种情绪在欧洲感受最为强烈，在一定程度上也在东亚的一些国家中有所体现。我们与美国有许多问题正在处理，但我们并不存在所谓‘联盟条款’的问题，因为我们并非——我们是与美国有着强大战略合作伙伴关系的一个国家。
BUT A PARTNERSHIP IS A PARTNERSHIP, IT IS NOT AN ALLIANCE. IN OUR CASE, FOR THE LAST 20 ODD YEARS, WE HAD WORKED OUT WHAT WE FELT WERE CONVERGENCES, OVERLAPS, A SHARED COMMON INTEREST WITH THE U.S., AND WE HAD AGREED THAT WE WOULD PURSUE THAT. I DON'T THINK THAT HAS FUNDAMENTALLY CHANGED. I THINK WHAT IS HAPPENING IS, IN MANY CASES, I MEAN, LET'S GO THROUGH THE ISSUES WHICH YOU TALKED ABOUT. THE U.S. HAS A FUNDAMENTALLY DIFFERENT APPROACH TO THE USE OF TARIFFS.
但伙伴关系就是伙伴关系，它不是联盟。在我们看来，过去二十多年里，我们确定了我们认为与美国存在的共识、重叠之处以及共同利益，并同意追求这些目标。我认为这并未发生根本性变化。我认为正在发生的是，在许多情况下，也就是说，让我们逐一讨论你提到的那些问题。美国在关税使用方面采取了截然不同的方法。
BUT EVEN THAT IS A SYMPTOM OF SOMETHING OF. THE U.S. IS TODAY -- SOMETHING ELSE. THE U.S. IS TODAY DETERMINED TO RE-INDUSTRIALIZE AND RESET THE TERMS OF ACCESS TO ITS ECONOMY. AND THAT IS WHAT THE WHOLE TARIFF DEBATE IS ABOUT AND THE TWO ARE CONNECTED, ACCESS TO THE AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THE RE-INDUSTRIALIZATION OF AMERICA. THEREFORE, WHAT IS HAPPENING IS, YOU KNOW, EVERY SIGNIFICANT ECONOMY IS GETTING INTO A NEGOTIATION WITH THE UNITED STATES ON THIS ISSUE.
但即使是这也只是某种现象的表现。今天的美国——另有他图。美国今天决心重新工业化并重置其经济准入条件。这正是整个关税辩论的核心所在，两者相互关联：进入美国经济与美国的再工业化。因此，正在发生的事情是，每一个重要经济体都在就这一问题与美国进行谈判。
WE ARE NOT ALONE IN THIS. IN OUR CASE, WE ARE PRETTY FAR ADVANCED IN THE PROCESS OF NEGOTIATION.
我们并非孤身一人。在我们的案例中，我们的谈判进程已经相当深入。
YOU ARE DOING A TRADE AGREEMENT, AREN'T YOU? YOU HAD AN INITIAL BUT YOU ARE STILL WAITING FOR THE FINAL ON THAT?
你们正在进行一项贸易协定，对吧？你们已经有了初步成果，但仍等待最终版本？
I THINK WE ARE WAITING FOR A FEW THINGS. I DON'T, HONESTLY, I WOULDN'T BE COMFORTABLE SPILLING THE BEANS IN PUBLIC.
我认为我们在等待几件事。老实说，我不愿意公开透露细节。
IT IS A SMALL SELECT AUDIENCE.
这是一个小型精选观众群体。
THANK YOU. I CAN SEE THAT, WITH A SMALL SELECT CAMERA THERE. BUT HAVING SAID THAT, LOOK, HERE'S THE ISSUE. WHEN COUNTRIES NEGOTIATE WITH AN ECONOMY LIKE THE UNITED STATES, OBVIOUSLY, ONE PART OF IT IS WHAT YOU ARE CAP BETWEEN YOURSELVES AND THE U.S., AND ONE PART OF IT IS, HOW DO YOU FARE VIS-À-VIS COMPETITIVE ECONOMIES? THAT PART OF IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR BECAUSE NOT EVERYBODY HAS WORKED OUT A DEAL. SO, I THINK PEOPLE, THE TRADE MINISTERS, OUR COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY MINISTER, THEY ARE WORKING ON THAT, IRONING IT OUT.
谢谢。我能看到，那里有一个小型的选择性摄像头。但话虽如此，看，问题就在这里。当各国与美国这样的经济体进行谈判时，显然，其中一部分是你们与美国之间的双边关系，另一部分则是你们如何与竞争性经济体竞争？这部分并不完全清楚，因为并非所有人都达成了协议。所以，我认为人们，贸易部长们，我们的商务和工业部长，他们正在为此努力，消除分歧。
MY SENSE IS THAT THIS IS AN ISSUE WHICH IS HEADING TOWARDS A LANDING POINT. PAUL: --
我的感觉是，这是一个正朝着解决方向发展的议题。保罗：——
INDIA'S FOREIGN MINISTER SPEAKING TO JOHN MICKLETHWAIT AT THE NEW ECONOMY FORUM IN NEW DELHI. CHINA'S TRADE SURPLUS HAS SURGED TO NEARLY $940 BILLION THIS YEAR AS EXPORTS JUMPED 36% IN SEPTEMBER. THE WEDDING AND BALANCE IS ADDING TO TENSIONS WITH MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS -- THE WIDENING IMBALANCE IS ADDING TO TENSIONS WITH MAJOR TRADING PARTNERS INCLUDING INDIA. ALL OF THIS HAS MARKET
印度外交部长在新德里新经济体论坛上接受约翰·米克尔思韦特的采访。今年中国的贸易顺差飙升至近9400亿美元，9月份出口激增36%。贸易失衡加剧了与主要贸易伙伴的紧张关系——不断扩大的不平衡加剧了包括印度在内的主要贸易伙伴的紧张局势。这一切都让市场
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力