ASML财报超预期，Houthi袭击沙特Aramco总部
Stocks Waver Ahead of CPI, Bank Earnings; Aramco Hit By Houthis
ASML作为半导体核心标的，其财报指引直接反映AI产业链供需格局变化；同时沙特Aramco遇袭事件涉及关键能源资产安全与油价波动，两者均为当前市场核心变量，建议重点关注相关板块反应。
GOOD MORNING, I'M VONNIE QUINN BLOOMBERG BRIEF. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. COUNTDOWN TO CPI. THOUGHT FUTURES RISING MODESTLY AHEAD OF THE LATEST READOUT ON INFLATION WHERE ASML REPORTS SOARING AI DEMAND. CRUDE OIL AS HOUTHIS CONTINUES ATTACKS ACROSS SAUDI ARABIA. AND BANK OF AMERICA AND MORGAN STANLEY EARNINGS ON DECK AFTER EQUITIES DESKS OUTSHONE FIXED INCOME TEAMS. THAT'S GET A CHECK ON MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD.
早上好，我是万妮·奎因，来自彭博简报。让我们为您开启新的一天。通胀数据（CPI）倒计时。在最新通胀读数公布前，股指期货温和上涨；阿斯麦（ASML）报告人工智能需求飙升。随着胡塞武装继续袭击沙特阿拉伯，原油价格承压。在股市交易台表现优于固定收益团队之后，美国银行和摩根士丹利的财报即将发布。现在来看看全球市场的动态。
WE BEGIN IN ASIA WITH WINNIE HSU. WINNIE: QUITE AN INTERESTING PICTURE IN ASIA BECAUSE WE ACTUALLY SAW STOCKS ERASING GAINS IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AFTER ASML'S EARNINGS. PERHAPS A LITTLE BIT OF CAUTION ALSO AHEAD OF THE U.S. CPI NUMBERS, SO YOU ARE LOOKING AT ACTUALLY KOSPI DOWN IN THE RED AFTER HAVING RISEN ABOUT 2.6% EARLIER TODAY. ALSO ENDING THE LOOK OF THE FLAT. A BIT OF A RELIEF IS ACTUALLY IN THE BOND MARKET, WE SAW A PRETTY SOLID DEMAND FOR THE JGB FIVE YEAR BOND AUCTION.
我们从亚洲市场开始，由徐温妮报道。徐温妮：亚洲市场的形势相当有趣，因为在阿斯麦发布财报后的过去几个小时里，股市实际上抹去了之前的涨幅。在美国消费者物价指数（CPI）数据公布前，市场可能也略显谨慎。因此，韩国综合股价指数（KOSPI）在早盘上涨约2.6%后，目前转为下跌。另外，日经指数基本持平。债券市场带来了一丝慰藉，我们看到日本国债（JGB）五年期债券拍卖的需求相当强劲。
NOW I LOOK AT CHINESE ASSETS, TECH STOCKS IN HONG KONG ACTUALLY PRETTY STRONGLY, A BIT OF A SHORT COVERING IN THE E-COMMERCE SPACE. HOWEVER, WE DID HAVE ACTUALLY SURGING EXPORT NUMBERS THROUGH SEPTEMBER WHICH HAS ACTUALLY CONTINUED TO WIDEN THE TRADE SURPLUS FOR CHINA AND IT REALLY GOES TO SHOW HOW EXPORT CONTINUES TO BE THAT GROWTH ENGINE FOR THE ECONOMY AND THAT MEANS THAT THE GOVERNMENT WILL PERHAPS HAVE LESS OF AN URGE TO STIPULATE THE BROADER ECONOMY GOING FORWARD, AND THAT IS DRAGGING THE OVERALL STOCK MARKET IN CHINA.
现在我关注中国资产。香港科技股走势相当强劲，电商领域出现了一些空头回补。然而，截至九月的出口数据确实激增，这使中国的贸易顺差持续扩大。这充分表明出口仍是经济增长的引擎，这意味着政府在未来刺激整体经济的意愿可能会减弱，这也拖累了中国整体股市的表现。
JUST ABOUT 3% AWAY FROM THEIR TERRITORY. VONNIE: WINNIE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. NOW THAT'S IT TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN SESSION WITH JUSTINA LEE. JUST ENOUGH: -- JUSTINA: THE PICTURE IS A LITTLE BIT POSITIVE, BUT THE STOCK STILL OF 0.4%. YESTERDAY, TECH WITH THE BIGGEST LAGGARD. TODAY IT IS THE OPPOSITE ALL THANKS TO STRONG NUMBERS FROM ASML. WHEN IT COMES TO THE BOND MARKET, WE HAVE HEARD FROM SOME CENTRAL BANK OFFICIALS OVER THE PAST DAY, THE BELGIAN CENTRAL BANK GOVERNOR WHO IS ON THE ECB GOVERNING COUNCIL HAS SAID THAT THEY WOULD PROBABLY HAVE TO HIKE AGAIN BUT EVEN DESPITE THAT, WE CAN SEE HERE THE GERMAN BONDS ARE FALLING GENERALLY.
距离目标区域仅约3%。万妮：非常感谢你，徐温妮。接下来我们转到伦敦，看看欧洲市场的交易情况，由贾斯汀娜·李报道。贾斯汀娜：市场形势略偏积极，但股票指数仍下跌0.4%。昨天，科技板块是表现最差的板块；今天则恰恰相反，这都要归功于阿斯麦发布的强劲数据。就债券市场而言，过去一天我们听到了一些央行官员的声音。担任欧洲央行（ECB）管理委员会成员的比利时央行行长表示，他们可能不得不再次加息。但即便如此，我们仍可以看到德国国债普遍下跌。
THE RECOUNT IN GLOBAL BONDS, BUT IN THE U.K. WE ARE SEEING AN EVEN BIGGER MOVE AND THAT IS BECAUSE THE CHIEF ECONOMIST WHO IS ABOUT TO BE ONE OF THE MORE HAWKISH MEMBERS HAS PASSED DOWN A MARKET PRICING INFORMAL RATE HIKES BY NEXT SUMMER. WE CAN SEE A LOT OF MOVEMENT WHEN IT COMES TO THE NUMBER OF HIKES PRICED IN HERE. A DIPPED DOWN AND THAT IS REFLECTING THE REACTION TO HIS COMMENTS OVERNIGHT. VONNIE: CENTRAL-BANK COMMENTS ALSO IMPACTING THE MARKET TODAY, YESTERDAY AND TODAY IN THE U.S..
全球债券正在重新定价，但在英国我们看到更大的波动，这是因为即将成为更鹰派成员的首席经济学家已传递出市场预计明年夏季将非正式加息的信号。我们可以看到在此处定价的加息次数出现大量变动。此前曾下跌，这反映了市场对他在隔夜评论的反应。冯妮：央行评论也在影响今天和昨天的美国市场。
WE WILL BEGIN WITH ASML AND MARKETS DIGESTING THOSE RESULTS WHICH WERE REALLY FANTASTIC, TALKING ABOUT DEMAND OUTSTRIPPING SUPPLY FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS. AT THE SAME TIME, INVESTORS DECIDING HOW TO TAKE THOSE. RIGHT NOW, ADR'S ARE HIGHER PREMARKET. THAT IS NOT HELPING THE NASDAQ, BUT WE DO HAVE S&P FUTURES HIGHER AND RUSSELL 2000 FUTURES HIGHER. INVESTOR DAY IS TODAY AS WELL AND TO BE A CATALYST FOR MARKET MOVES. WHEN IT COMES TO YIELDS, JOHN WILLIAMS CAME OUT YESTERDAY.
我们将从ASML开始，市场正在消化那些非常出色的业绩，讨论未来两年的需求超过供应的情况。同时，投资者决定如何应对这些情况。目前，ADR在盘前交易中走高。这对纳斯达克没有帮助，但我们有标普期货和罗素2000期货走高。投资者日也在今天，将成为市场波动的催化剂。关于收益率，约翰·威廉姆斯昨天发表了讲话。
HE'S REALLY NOT SURE THAT ANYMORE WILL BE NECESSARY SO WE COULD BE AT THE END OF THE TIGHTENING CYCLE AT THE END OF THIS YEAR AT LEAST ACCORDING TO A BILLION SEES NOW. WE ARE OBVIOUSLY WAITING ON THAT CPI DATA TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS NEXT, BUT MARKETS ARE STILL PRICING IN HIGHS NEXT YEAR. WE DID SEE YIELDS COME UP A LITTLE BIT YESTERDAY AND WE SAW THE PICTURE THERE TODAY. WE STILL HAVE CRUDE WITH SOME PRESSURE IN THIS MARKET, SO WE ARE ABOVE 105 ON BRENT.
他确实不再确定是否还需要进一步行动，因此根据亿万富翁的观点，我们可能在今年年底结束紧缩周期。我们显然在等待CPI数据以观察接下来会发生什么，但市场仍在为明年的高点定价。我们昨天看到收益率小幅上升，今天也看到了这一情况。我们仍有原油在市场面临一些压力，因此布伦特原油价格在105美元以上。
IF YOU LOOK AT NEXT YEAR CONTRACTS, THEY ARE AT RECORDS. REALLY NOT REFLECTING THE DECREASE THAT YOU MIGHT ANTICIPATE GIVEN THAT DIESEL IS COMING DOWN. NEW YORK CRUDE IS ABOVE $94 PER BARREL. LET'S GET TO SOME INDIVIDUAL MARKET MOVERS NOW. ALEX: GOOD MORNING. THEY SAY TIMING IS EVERYTHING AND TIMING FOR BANK OF AMERICA IS AWKWARD. 1.1 TO $1 BILLION FINE WE ARE LEARNING ABOUT AS THEY ARE GETTING THEIR THIRD QUARTER, DOWN PREMARKET.
如果你查看明年的合约，它们处于创纪录水平。这并没有反映出你预期的下降，尽管柴油价格正在下跌。纽约原油每桶高于94美元。现在让我们来看一些个别市场推动者。亚历克斯：早上好。他们说时机就是一切，而美国银行的时机很尴尬。我们正在了解他们因第三季度表现不佳而在盘前交易中下跌1.1至10亿美元罚款的消息。
ALL THE BANKING NAMES YESTERDAY, THEY ENDED IN THE RED. KEEP AN EYE TO BANK OF AMERICA. LET'S TURN OVER THE BOARD AND HAVE A LOOK AT SOME OF THE NAMES AND ENTERPRISE. SORRY, TURNING TO LIQUIDITA. THAT HAS ACTUALLY SETTLED SOME LITIGATION WITH UNITED THERAPEUTICS ON SOME OF THOSE TECH NAMES. YOU CAN SEE PUTTING THEM IN THE RED PREMARKET THIS MORNING. VONNIE: SOME NICE MOVES, ALEX. THAT IS ALEX MORGAN IN LONDON, HE WILL BE BACK LATER.
所有银行股昨天都以亏损收盘。密切关注美国银行。让我们转向董事会并查看一些名称和企业。抱歉，转向流动性。实际上，它已与联合治疗公司就某些科技名称达成了一些诉讼和解。你可以看到今天早上它们在盘前交易中走低。冯妮：不错的移动，亚历克斯。这是伦敦的亚历克斯·摩根，他稍后会回来。
ALSO COMING UP THIS HOUR, WE GO LIVE TO DUBLIN AND THE INTERNATIONAL AI SUMMIT FOR A CONVERSATION WITH THE FOUNDER AND CEO OF DEEPL. THEN CHRISTOPHER HODGE OF NATIXUS AND STEPHEN BIGGAR OF ARGUS RESEARCH. LET'S START WITH EARNINGS RESULTS OUT OF ASML. SHARES GETTING A BOOTH IN AMSTERDAM AS EUROPE'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY WARNED IT WON'T BE FULLY ABLE TO MEET SOARING AI DEMAND IN THE COMING YEARS. THE CEO WRITING IN A STATEMENT THE ARE INVESTIGATING WAYS TO INCREASE CAPACITY FOR 2028 BEYOND THE 30% INCREASE WE PREVIOUSLY COMMUNICATED.
本小时节目还将连线都柏林，参加国际人工智能峰会，与 DeepL 的创始人兼首席执行官对话。随后是 Natixus 的 Christopher Hodge 和 Argus Research 的 Stephen Biggar。我们先从 ASML 的财报结果说起。作为欧洲最有价值的公司，ASML 警告称未来几年将无法完全满足激增的人工智能需求，其股价在阿姆斯特丹有所下跌。首席执行官在声明中表示，正在研究增加产能的方法，目标是在 2028 年实现超过此前沟通的 30% 的增长。
JOINING US NOW IS BLOOMBERG'S SARA JACOBS IN AMSTERDAM. SARAH, IT WOULD SEEM LIKE THAT WAS IRRESPONSIBLE COMMENT. IT'S NOT QUITE SURE IF INVESTORS WANT TO SOAR, IF THEY WANT MORE INVESTMENT IN CAPACITY FOR THE LIKES OF ASML. SO THE CEO SAID WE ARE INVESTIGATING IT. DID HE DO THE RIGHT THING? SARA: ASML IS A LINCHPIN IN THE GLOBAL SEMICONDUCTOR CHAIN. IT IS THE ONLY MAKE OF SOPHISTICATED LITHOGRAPHY TOOLS THAT ARE CRUCIAL FOR CHIPMAKERS LIKE TSMC AND SAMSUNG TO MAKE ADVANCED CHIPS.
现在与我们连线的是彭博社驻阿姆斯特丹记者 Sara Jacobs。Sarah，这看起来似乎是不负责任的言论。目前还不太确定投资者是否希望股价飙升，或者他们是否希望像 ASML 这样的公司在产能方面获得更多投资。所以首席执行官说他们在调查此事。他做得对吗？Sara：ASML 是全球半导体供应链的关键枢纽。它是唯一生产先进光刻设备的制造商，这些设备对于台积电（TSMC）和三星等芯片制造商制造先进芯片至关重要。
BUT WE ARE SEEING IN THEIR COURT A RESULT IS THAT ASML IS SEEING SOARING AI-RELATED DEMAND. IT HAS BOOSTED THE 2026 FORECAST, ESSENTIALLY SAYING THEY ARE ALREADY SORT OF EXPRESSING INTEREST IN PLACING ORDERS FROM 2029 AND 2020, WHICH IS QUITE INTERESTING. WE KINDA SEE THE STOCK MOVE UP AND INVESTORS SEEM TO BE HAPPY ABOUT THAT. WHAT WE DO SEE IS THAT IN JULY, THEY'VE TALKED ABOUT A 30% PLAN FOR A 30% CAPACITY INCREASE, AND THEY WILL INVESTIGATE A FURTHER INCREASE IN 2028.
但我们看到的结果是，ASML 正面临激增的人工智能相关需求。它上调了 2026 年的预测，基本上表示他们已经有兴趣在 2029 年和 2030 年下单，这相当有趣。我们确实看到股价上涨，投资者对此似乎感到满意。我们看到的是，7 月份他们曾讨论过 30% 的产能增长计划，并将调查在 2028 年进一步增加产能的可能性。
NOW THEY SAY THAT WE POSSIBLY HAVE TO GO BEYOND 30% IN 2028, GIVEN THE SCALE OF DEMAND. TELLING US THIS MORNING THEY ARE TRYING TO CHALLENGE ALL THE ASSUMPTIONS, THEY ARE MAKING PRODUCTIVITY INCREASES IN THE EXISTING PRODUCTS, AND ALSO PROVIDING SOFTWARE TO BRIDGE THAT GAP. VONNIE: CAN WE SHOULD MENTION THAT THE EARNINGS CALL IS SCHEDULED FOR 9:00 A.M. EASTERN, SO WE HAVEN'T HAD THAT YET. SARAH, THANK YOU. OIL REBOUNDING AS TENSIONS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
现在他们说，鉴于需求的规模，我们可能在 2028 年必须超越 30% 的目标。今天早上他们告诉我们，他们正在努力挑战所有假设，通过提高现有产品的生产力，并提供软件来弥合这一差距。Vonnie：我们可以提一下，财报电话会议安排在东部时间上午 9:00，所以我们还没有听到那部分的内容。Sarah，谢谢你。中东紧张局势持续升温，油价反弹。
HOUTHIS TARGETING SEVERAL CITIES ACROSS SAUDI ARABIA AND HITTING SAUDI ARAMCO HEADQUARTERS IN THE EAST OF THE KINGDOM. FOR MORE, LET'S BRING IN A BEER IN A DIVIDE. A VERY SYMBOLIC STRIKE ON THE ARAMCO HQ, BUT ALSO THE REFINERY. HOW DOES THAT IMPACT ARAMCO OPERATIONS? ABEER: THAT'S A VERY GOOD QUESTION. WE STILL DON'T HAVE THE CALCULATED IMPACT ON WHAT EXACTLY THIS MEANS. THE HEADQUARTERS OF COURSE OF THE ARAMCO IN EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA, BUT UP UNTIL THE EARLY HOURS OF THE MORNING WE WERE REPORTING ON STRIKES IN RIYADH, SOME MISSILES AND DRONES THAT WERE INTERCEPTED BY THE SAUDI GOVERNMENT.
胡塞武装正瞄准沙特阿拉伯境内的多个城市，并袭击了位于王国东部的沙特阿美总部。更多详情，让我们请一位啤酒专家来分析这一分歧。对阿美总部以及炼油厂而言，这是一次极具象征意义的打击。这会对阿美的运营产生何种影响？Abeer：这是一个非常好的问题。我们目前仍无法计算出这对具体意味着什么的确切影响。当然，这是位于沙特东部地区的阿美总部，但直到清晨时分，我们一直在报道利雅得遭受的袭击，包括一些被沙特政府拦截的导弹和无人机。
IT WAS SYMBOLIC AND THE FACT THAT THIS ATTACK ON THE ARAMCO FACILITY DID NOT LEAVE ANY CASUALTIES. SIMILAR TO WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN THE AIRPORT ATTACKS OVER THE WEEKEND. IT IS QUITE AN ESCALATION IN THE REGION IN THIS ATTACK BY THE HOUTHIS AGAINST SAUDI ARABIA. WE'VE SEEN THESE ATTACKS HAPPENING, TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS. IN THE WIDER CONTEXT OF THE WAR THAT STILL GOING ON BETWEEN THE U.S. AND IRAN, SO QUITE A DANGEROUS ESCALATION ON ALL DIFFERENT FRONTS IN THE KINGDOM.
这次袭击具有象征意义，且此次针对阿美设施的袭击未造成任何人员伤亡。这与我们在周末机场袭击事件中看到的情况类似。胡塞武装对沙特阿拉比亚洲的攻击是该地区相当程度的升级。在过去几周里，我们看到这些袭击逐渐成形。从更广泛的背景来看，美国与伊朗之间的战争仍在持续，因此在该王国的所有不同战线上都出现了相当危险的升级态势。
WE STILL AWAIT, AS I MENTIONED, WHAT EXACTLY THE IMPACT IS AND WHETHER IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON PRODUCTION. FOR THE TIME BEING, WE DON'T HAVE A REASON TO BELIEVE THAT WOULD BE THE CASE. I JUST BRING BACK WITH THE ENERGY MINISTER IN SAUDI ARABIA SAID A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO, HE DID SAY THAT THE SAUDI ENERGY PRODUCTION WILL REMAIN RESILIENT AND THAT IT TAKES MORE THAN JUST PRODUCTION, BUT THEN AGAIN WE HAVE TO REMEMBER WHAT IS HAPPENING IN THE WIDER CONTEXT IN THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.
正如我提到的，我们仍在等待确切的影响是什么，以及它是否会对生产产生影响。目前为止，我们没有理由相信情况会如此。我只是想起沙特阿拉伯能源部长几天前曾表示，他说沙特的能源生产将保持韧性，而且维持生产不仅仅关乎产量本身；但另一方面，我们必须记住霍尔木兹海峡更广泛背景下正在发生的事情。
BLOOMBERG IS REPORTING THAT ATTACKS ON THE WEEKEND
彭博社报道称，周末发生的袭击事件
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