美联储暗示明年无需激进加息，美股收平债市反弹
Fed Signals Fewer Rate Hikes, Aramco HQ Hit in Houthi Attack
美联储官员明确表态明年无需进一步紧缩，直接改变市场对加息路径的预期，进而驱动股债资产定价逻辑切换。关注其对宏观流动性预期的修正及后续通胀数据的验证。
THIS IS THE ASIA TRADE. I'M HAIDI STROUD-WATTS IN SYDNEY
这里是亚洲交易时间。我是海迪·斯特劳德-沃茨，在悉尼。
AND I'M PAUL ALLEN THE TOP STORIES THIS HOUR.
我是保罗·艾伦，为您带来本小时的重点新闻。
ASIAN STOKES LOOKS AT THE GAINS ON SIGNS THE FED MAY NOT NEED AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKES NEXT YEAR. A SELLOFF OF CHIPMAKERS IS EASING WHILE MICROSOFT HITS A RECORD. BANK OF AMERICA WAS FINED MILLIONS OF DOLLARS FOR SANCTIONS VIOLATIONS. AS WALL STREET'S BIG LENDERS BEGAN TO REPORT QUARTERLY RESULTS. HAIDI: OUR NEW ECONOMY FORM CONTINUES TODAY IN NEW DELHI. WE WILL BE TALKING TO MAJOR POLICY MAKERS AND EXECUTIVES. LET'S GET YOU STRAIGHT TO THESE MARKETS.
亚洲市场关注美联储明年可能无需激进加息的信号。芯片制造商的抛售有所缓解，而微软创下历史新高。随着华尔街主要贷款机构开始公布季度业绩，美国银行因违反制裁规定被处以数百万美元罚款。海迪：我们的新经济论坛今天继续在德里举行。我们将与主要政策制定者和高管进行对话。让我们直接进入这些市场。
WE ARE SEEING MORE OF A CALM SETTLED IN AS REASSURANCE THAT MAYBE THE FED WILL NOT BE AS HAWKISH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. ON THE SIGNALS THAT THEY MAY NOT HAVE TO RAISE RATES AGGRESSIVELY GOING TO NEXT YEAR. WE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT OF NEW YORK SAYING HE CONTINUES TO SEE ONE MORE RATE HIKE AS APPROPRIATE BUT NO NEED FOR FURTHER TIGHTENING NEXT YEAR. WE DID HAVE U.S. STOCKS CLOSING LITTLE CHANGED BUT A RALLY ACROSS TREASURIES.
我们看到一种平静的局面正在形成，因为人们重新确信，美联储可能不像之前认为的那样鹰派。有信号表明，他们明年可能无需激进加息。我们听到了纽约联储主席的发言，他表示继续认为再加息一次是合适的，但明年无需进一步收紧。美股收盘基本持平，但国债出现反弹。
AT THE MOMENT THIS IS WHAT WE ARE SEEING. SOME DOWNSIDE AS WE HAD AN INSIDER TRADING FUTURES A LITTLE BIT SOFTER. LOOKING LIKE WE WILL GET A REBOUND IS THE SLUMP IN CHIPMAKERS STARTS TO EASE AS WELL. ENERGY CONTINUES TO BE THE WEIGHT. BRENT CRUDE UP. WE ARE SEEING NEW YORK TRADED CRUDE UP BY A HALF OF A PERCENT FOR THAT FLARE UP AND ATTACKS IN THE MIDDLE EAST INCREASING THE PICTURE OF UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE RECOVERY OF ENERGY FLOWS.
目前我们看到的情况是，由于内幕交易期货略有疲软，市场出现下行压力。芯片制造商的暴跌似乎正在缓解，有望迎来反弹。能源板块仍是拖累。布伦特原油上涨。纽约交易的原油价格上涨了0.5%，这源于中东地区的紧张局势和袭击事件加剧了能源流动恢复的不确定性。
BRENT HAS SURGED MORE THAN 70% THIS YEAR. EVEN IF THERE IS A SENSE OF THE CONSISTENCY TO PUT INTO THAT BIGGER PICTURE AS TO WHERE WE WERE BEFORE THE WAR BEGAN IN FEBRUARY. WATCHING BONDS AS WELL AS WE CONTINUE TO HAVE THESE WARNINGS DESPITE THE SIGNALING FROM THE FED. RAY DALIO THE LATEST THING THE SELLOFF IN U.S. BONDS IS FAR FROM OVER. THE SURGING GOVERNMENT AND WEAKER DEMAND FOR CUSTOMERS AS WELL. LET'S BRING IN FOR MORE ON ALL OF THIS HEART EQUITY STRATEGIST.
布伦特原油今年涨幅已超过70%。即使有一种观点认为，应将当前情况置于二月战争爆发前的更大背景中来审视一致性。我们也在密切关注债券市场，尽管美联储发出信号，但仍不断收到警告。雷·达里奥的最新观点是，美债抛售远未结束。政府债券激增以及客户需求减弱也是因素之一。让我们请股权策略师桑尼·班吉亚带来更多分析。
SUNNY BANGIA. GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. LET'S TALK ABOUT THE TECH TO CREATE -- TRADE. THERE ARE SOME FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS HERE.
桑尼·班吉亚。很高兴您与我们在一起。我们来谈谈科技股的交易。这里有一些根本性的问题。
THE CHIP TRADE IN PARTICULAR IS SPLITTING INTO A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT TRADES. YOU HAVE THE MEMORY TRADE AND THE DEVELOPMENTS BEHIND THAT WITH CXMT. AND IN THE NON-MEMORY TRADE WHICH IS MORE ABOUT NVIDIA, TSMC. THAT IS START TO SHOWING UP IN THE PERFORMANCE IN ASIA WITH TAIWAN SIGNIFICANTLY OUTPERFORMING THE KOSPI. WITH RESPECT TO THE CHIPS TRADE, IT REALLY WILL COME DOWN TO HOW MUCH PROGRESS CXMT CAN REALLY MAKE. HOW MUCH SUPPLY CAN THEY BRING INTO THE MARKET IN 2028?
特别是芯片贸易正分裂成几个不同的细分领域。你有存储芯片贸易，以及背后由长鑫存储（CXMT）推动的发展。还有非存储芯片贸易，这更多关乎英伟达（NVIDIA）和台积电（TSMC）。这在亚洲市场的表现中已开始显现，台湾加权指数显著跑赢韩国KOSPI指数。就芯片贸易而言，关键在于长鑫存储能取得多少进展，以及他们在2028年能将多少供应带入市场？
WHETHER THE DEMAND OVERWHELMS THAT. WE WILL GET MORE CLUES INTO THAT AS ANTHROPIC HOLDS THEIR INVESTOR DAY AND WE GET MORE MODEL DEVELOPED AND EARNINGS SEASON KICKS OFF AND WE GET A SENSE OF WHERE WE ARE HEADING WITH AI IN GENERAL. PAUL: WILL WE LOOK BACK IN THE FUTURE AND SAY THIS WAS AROUND ABOUT THE TIME THAT THE CRACKS STARTED TO APPEAR OR IS THAT NOT THE CASE? SUNNY: THAT IS A GREAT POINT. THIS IS, WHETHER WE ARE EARLY IN MODEL DEVELOPMENT OR NOT, IN TERMS OF THE SEMICONDUCTOR CYCLE IT REALLY TICKED OFF WHEN CHATGPT CAME OUT.
需求是否会压倒一切？随着 Anthropic 举办投资者日，我们将获得更多线索，同时随着更多模型的开发以及财报季的开启，我们将对 AI 的整体发展方向有一个更清晰的认识。保罗：未来我们会回顾说，大约在那个时候裂痕开始出现吗？还是说并非如此？Sunny：这是一个很好的观点。无论我们在模型开发方面处于早期阶段与否，从半导体周期的角度来看，ChatGPT 发布时确实标志着周期的启动。
SO WE ARE A FEW YEARS INTO THE CYCLE. WE WILL GET INDICATIONS LATER THIS WEEK ABOUT WHAT THEY WANT TO DO WITH OUR NUMBERS. IT IS DEFINITELY MORE OF A MIDCYCLE FIELD. IN TERMS OF WHAT PART OF THE CYCLE WE ARE IN. WE CAN'T NOT NOTICE THE RECORD PROFITS. THIS IS GIVING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR CXMT TO EMERGE AND SPEND A LOT OF MONEY EVEN IN INEFFICIENT TOOLS TO POTENTIALLY CATCH UP AND CREATE A BIT OF DISRUPTION ON THE EDGES.
因此，我们已处于该周期几年之中。本周晚些时候我们将获得关于他们希望如何处理我们数据的指示。就我们所处的周期阶段而言，这绝对是一个中期阶段的战场。我们无法忽视创纪录的利润。这为长鑫存储（CXMT）的出现提供了机会，使其即使在效率低下的工具上也投入大量资金，以潜在地缩小差距并在边缘领域制造一些颠覆。
HAIDI: THE COMMENTARY FROM THE FED SUGGESTS MORE OF A TONE OF PATIENTS AND DATA DEPENDENCE RATHER THAN URGENCY. WE STILL WANT TO COME OUT OF THE INFLATION PRINT. SUNNY: ABSOLUTELY. THERE ARE COUPLE OF THINGS HAPPENING HERE. ONE IS THAT KEVIN WARSH AS THE NEW FED GOVERNOR NEEDS TO STAMP HIS AUTHORITY ON THE FED. THE INFLATION FIGHTING CREDENTIALS. THEY HAVE HAD A LOT OF TIGHTENING RATES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL MONTHS IN TERMS OF REAL RATES.
Haidi：美联储的评论表明，其基调更多是耐心和数据依赖，而非紧迫。我们仍希望通胀数据能有所改善。Sunny：绝对如此。这里有几件事正在发生。一是作为新任美联储理事的凯文·沃什需要确立他在美联储的权威和抗击通胀的资历。在过去几个月里，实际利率已经经历了多次收紧。
WE HAVE SEEN INDEPENDENT OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE REAL RATES GO UP. I THINK THE FED NEEDS TO WATCH THE IMPACT OF THAT INTO 2027. WE WILL SEE THE MARKET WILL REJOICE AT A RATE HIKING CYCLE. WE SAW EVIDENCE OF THAT YESTERDAY WITH THE MARKETS BOUNCING AS THOSE CAME OUT FROM ONE OF THE FED GOVERNORS. PAUL: HAS ANYTHING REALLY CHANGED ON THE INFLATION FRONT? THEY ARE STILL TWO MAJOR WARS BEING FOUGHT THAT IS PUTTING A LOT OF PRESSURE ON ENERGY PRICES.
我们看到，独立于美联储之外，实际利率已经上升。我认为美联储需要关注其对 2027 年的影响。我们将看到市场会对加息周期感到欣喜。昨天当一位美联储理事发表言论后，市场反弹，我们就看到了这方面的证据。保罗：通胀方面真的有什么变化吗？目前仍有两场主要战争正在进行，这对能源价格施加了巨大压力。
SUNNY: THAT IS ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. DIESEL IS REALLY THE CRITICAL POINT FOR THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION THAT THEY HAVE NOT SOLVED FOR. THEY TRIED IN RECENT WEEKS. WHAT THE FED REALLY NEEDS TO WATCH IS WHAT IS THE READTHROUGH FROM DIESEL PRICES INTO GENERAL HOUSEHOLD GOODS AND TRANSPORT? IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL. THE FED IS IN A HIKING BIAS. IT IS WHETHER THIS IS A SHALLOW HIKING CYCLE OR A DEEPER ONE WHICH WILL WAY MORE SIGNIFICANT LAYER RISK SENTIMENT.
Sunny：这完全正确。柴油是美国政府尚未解决的真正关键点。他们在最近几周尝试过。美联储真正需要关注的是柴油价格向一般家庭用品和运输业的传导效应。现在判断还为时过早。美联储倾向于加息。问题在于这是浅层次的加息周期还是更深层次的，后者将对风险情绪产生更为显著的影响。
THE FED IS KIND OF LEANING TOWARD A SHALLOW CYCLE. HAIDI: WHEN IT COMES TO THE BOJ WE ARE ALSO SEEING THAT POTENTIAL PULL FROM MORE URGENCY OR HAVING TO DOUBLE DOWN FOR NOW.
美联储某种程度上倾向于浅层次周期。Haidi：谈到日本银行（BOJ），我们也看到了来自更紧迫性或不得不加倍努力的潜在拉力。
THAT IS RIGHT. THEY ARE IN LESS PRESSURE BECAUSE THE INFLATION DATA IS MORE OR LESS WITHIN TARGET. THEY ARE NOT AS EAGER TO COMMENCE AN AGGRESSIVE RATE HIKING CYCLE. IT IS A SHALLOWER CYCLE. IT ALSO HAS TO DO WITH THE PHYSICAL BALANCES IN JAPAN AND THE MINISTRY OF FINANCE FINDING FUNDING AS WELL. THAT HAS BEEN A STELLAR PERFORMER. YIELDS WILL STAY RELATIVELY ANCHORED AS OPPOSED TO THE U.S. WHERE THE CURVE HAS BEEN A BIT FLATTER.
没错。他们的压力较小，因为通胀数据大致在目标范围内。他们并不急于开启激进的加息周期。这是一个较浅的周期。这也与日本的实物平衡以及财务省寻找资金有关。后者表现优异。收益率将保持相对锚定，这与美国曲线略显平坦的情况形成对比。
AS LONG AS THE BOJ STAYS IN A SHALLOWER HIKING CYCLE, IT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE TOPICS BANKS. PAUL: WE ARE GETTING UNDERWAY WITH A MAJOR EARNINGS SEASON. HOW DOES THE MACRO BACKDROP LOOK? THERE IS A LOT OF VOLATILITY AT THE MOMENT. SUNNY: THAT IS RIGHT. INTERESTINGLY THE FIXED INCOME DIVISIONS OF THESE BANKS HAVE BEEN WHERE THE WEAKNESS HAS BEEN. THAT HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT FLAGGED BY BANK OF AMERICA. THE RATES VOLATILITY HAS NOT FULLY TRANSLATED.
只要日本银行（BOJ）保持在较浅的加息周期中，这对顶级银行将是利好。保罗：我们正迎来一个主要的财报季。宏观背景看起来如何？目前波动性很大。桑尼：没错。有趣的是，这些银行的固定收益部门一直是薄弱环节所在。这一点已被美国银行（Bank of America）部分指出。利率波动尚未完全体现出来。
WE HAVE SEEN THAT COME THROUGH IN SOME OF THE NUMBERS. IT PROBABLY BODES WELL FOR MORGAN STANLEY. WHICH IS A LARGER EQUITIES FRANCHISE. IT IS A BIT MIXED. WE HAVE SOME BIG IPO'S COMING OUT THIS YEAR WITH ANTHROPIC BEING ONE OF THEM WHICH WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT SENTIMENT ON THE EQUITY SIDE. PAUL: OUR EQUITY STRATEGIST, THANK YOU. LIKE HE MENTIONED IT HAS BEEN A MIXED START TO U.S. BANK EARNINGS SEASON LEADING INVESTORS BROADLY UNIMPRESSED AS FINANCIAL STOCKS UNDERPERFORM.
我们在一些数据中看到了这一情况。这可能对摩根士丹利（Morgan Stanley）是好事，因为它是一家规模更大的股权业务机构。情况有些混杂。今年我们将有一些大型IPO推出，其中就包括Anthropic，这可能会支撑股市方面的情绪。保罗：感谢我们的股票策略师。正如他提到的，美国银行财报季开局喜忧参半，导致投资者普遍感到失望，金融股表现不佳。
OUR FINANCE REPORTED JOINS US NOW. AS WAS MENTIONED, A LITTLE BIT OF IT ON -- UNUSUAL SITUATION. HOW LONG BEFORE NORMAL SERVICES RESUME? KATHERINE: THIS IS CLEARLY A PIT IT. YOU WILL HAVE SOME BANKERS ON THE TRADING DESK WHO HAVE WORKED IN FIXED-INCOME THAT FOR THE FIRST TIME OUR SEEING THEIR EQUITY PEERS OUTPERFORM. THIS IS BECAUSE SOME OF THE PRESSURE ON HIGHER INTEREST RATES. WE ARE SEEING EQUITIES BECAUSE OF THE VOLUMES AND VOLATILITY, THEY ARE BENEFITING FROM ALL OF THAT.
我们的财经记者现在加入连线。如前所述，情况有点——不太寻常。恢复正常服务还需要多久？凯瑟琳：这显然是一个特例。交易台的一些银行家以前从事固定收益业务，第一次看到他们的股票同行表现优于自己。这是因为高利率带来的某些压力。我们看到股市因为成交量和波动性而受益于此。
THEY ARE TAKING MORE ACTIVITY FROM CLIENTS AND YOU HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE LAST QUARTER WITH BANKS SETTING RECORDS. THIS QUARTER HAS SPENT SOME OF THE STRONGEST FOR THE BANKS THAT HAVE REPORTED FOR THE THIRD QUARTER. THAT MOMENTUM IS CONTINUING AND WE ARE RELEASING THE REVERSAL OF BOTH FIXED INCOME PULLING BACK. BESIDES CITIGROUP, WHICH DID OUTPERFORM EXPECTATIONS, ALL OF THE OTHER BANKS THAT HAVE REPORTED WERE UNDER EXPECTATIONS.
客户活动增加，你在上一季度看到银行创下纪录。本季度是已报告第三季度业绩的银行表现最强的时期之一。这种势头仍在继续，我们正在释放反转信号，固定收益业务也在回撤。除了花旗集团（Citigroup）外，其表现超出预期，其他已报告的银行均低于预期。
THAT IS BECAUSE OF THE PRESSURE FROM HIGHER INTEREST RATES. HAIDI: HOW DO WE ANTICIPATE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FED PATH GOING FORWARD HOW THE FUTURE OUTLOOK MIGHT BE LOOKING LIKE? KATHERINE: IT WILL BE GOOD FOR SOME PARTS OF BANK BUSINESSES, YOU MENTIONED EQUITIES. IF THERE WILL BE CONTINUE VOLATILITY BECAUSE OF CHANGING INTEREST RATES, GEOPOLITICAL CONCERNS, CONCERNS AROUND AI AND THE COST OF THE FUNDING AND THAT SECTOR.
这是因为高利率带来的压力。海迪：鉴于美联储未来路径的不确定性程度，我们如何预期未来的前景会是什么样子？凯瑟琳：这对银行的一些业务部分是有利的，你提到了股票。如果由于利率变化、地缘政治担忧、对人工智能的担忧以及融资成本等因素导致持续波动，那么该领域将会受到影响。
ALL OF THESE WILL CONTRIBUTE AND POTENTIALLY DRIVE EQUITIES DESKS FURTHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE OTHER PARTS OF THE NIGHT THAT WILL BENEFIT FROM THIS WHEN WE THINK ABOUT CORE LENDING SERVICES WITH INTEREST RATES REMAINING HIGHER, POTENTIALLY MOVING FURT
所有这些都将做出贡献，并可能在年底前进一步推动股票交易台的业务。当我们考虑到核心贷款服务时，随着利率保持较高水平，甚至可能进一步上升，其他部分也将从中受益。
原文超出正文长度上限，此处截断——上游还有内容，完整版见上方「原文 ↗」。
更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力