Bloomberg：亚洲科技股承压，关注台积电财报与美欧宏观预期

Another day when we focus on the eye trade. We've had numbers out from ASML. Um, Asia has been a pain point this week when it comes to the tech trade. Um, but we've also had this sort of hyperscale rotation taking place in the United States. So from your perspective, how do things look around AI? Yeah, I mean, we definitely see more scrutiny on the AI trade this week than we've seen the comments. And the Broadcom CEO is in the see exempt breakthrough.

So together they kind of draw that scrutiny over, you know pricing power of the chipmakers as well as AI demand sustainability. And of course now seeing this Asimo release which know let's see how it opens. But in the pre-market it does look like it could potentially open lower, which is right. Quite disappointing given how strong the numbers were. And as you mentioned, Asia is really the pain point that we're seeing at the moment and for good reason.

So we've seen a real runup in stocks in South Korea and in Taiwan. So when you do I jitters inevitably they're going to be hit a lot harder. And you know, if I talk about the KOSPI as well it is essentially just two chip stocks. So when we see the setting it's going to hit hard to add. As we've shown on the blog, there's a lot of foreign setting. It's on these indices, so the pain's getting a lot worse and could get more.

So tomorrow with TSMC earnings on Dec, it does feel like the bar for them to impress now is pretty high. Where stateside you know it's not immune from this but it's certainly more insulated. So you know obviously yeah we have seen chip stocks roll over down six days. Sorry for the stocks index. But we are down just 0.5% from all time highs. So there's definitely more of an economic buffet in the US. And as you mentioned hyperscalers are a big part of that as well in a sector basis.

So we know on a day like yesterday where chips are rolling over, banks are weak. You know, the tape can absorb that. But obviously you have to keep earnings head on a few weeks. Why of European front end yields stable when it feels increasingly like energy prices are going to force the ECB to do more? Yeah that's definitely the observation at the front end of the market at the moment. I think risks are tilted lower for European yields.

Yeah. We have seen this run up in natural gas prices. We had notes here highs. But you know the front end hasn't really done much. And I think it's because people aren't really willing to add to ECB wages at this point. Given some of the French political turmoil. They're already at the upper end of neutral for the ECB estimate. I think if gas prices rise further, which they probably could given they've still got these ongoing conflicts, storage levels are low.

I think it's increasingly seen via the prism of the constraints on growth, rather than pure inflationary shock that the ECB would need to deal with. So if you do see gas prices move, higher economic data roles over there, I think we have potential for some of those ECB high bets to be scrubbed. I think we could see a bit of a steepening of the curve, given that the long end is still elevated given political risk premia.

What are you looking for on inflation then in the US? Adam, given we had comments from Williams yesterday that we are reiterating he doesn't see a need for more than one hike from the fed. Yeah, I think the setup for today is obviously we've seen the kind of dovish repricing for October is about 20% chance of a hike. And as you mentioned fed speak has generally been yes we'll probably it's a hike more but there's not really an urgency to do so.

So I think the bar for market reaction is pretty high. I think you need to see core month of month, probably 0.4% or high 0.3% to really pick October back of the market and see a flattening of the US curve.