美国8月成屋销售年化390万户，按揭利率升至7.5%令市场关注10月加息预期
US Existing-Home Sales Rise for First Time in Four Months
成屋销售与按揭利率数据直接关联美联储政策路径，CPI发布在即，此资讯为判断10月加息概率的关键前置变量，建议密切关注明日通胀数据以调整宏观仓位。
We begin with breaking economic data, crossing the Bloomberg terminal, existing home sales. Let's break it all down with Michael McKee, Bloomberg's international economics and policy correspondent. Well, it looks like a little bit better than expected, but we're still seeing some problems in the overall housing economy. We got 3.9 million, uh, annual rate for homebuilding. The estimate was 3.95 last month was 3.98. So not a whole lot of change going on there.
我们从打破经济数据开始，浏览彭博终端，现有房屋销售。让我们与彭博社国际经济与政策记者迈克尔·麦基一起分解这一切。嗯，看起来比预期好一点，但我们仍然看到整体住房经济中的一些问题。我们获得了390万套的年度建房率。上个月的估计是395万套，实际是398万套。所以那里没有太多变化。
It's about a 1.5% change in the monthly basis. Uh, and that is, uh, about as well as you could do single family homes, up 2% in terms of construction and, uh, multi-family homes, 2.8%. The uh month's supply, 4.8%, unchanged from August. It's pretty easy to tell you why. Uh, Bonnie, things aren't going very well with all of this, and that's mortgage rates. You look at what's happened with mortgage rates over the last couple of months, as the markets have pushed up the yield curve, we're seeing mortgage rates jump, uh, and we've basically gotten to 7.5% now, and there is a possibility that some analysts were saying this morning we could see even 8%, and that would not be good news.
月度基础上的变化约为1.5%。嗯，这对于单户住宅来说已经相当不错了，建筑方面增长了2%，而多户住宅增长了2.8%。库存供应月数为4.8%，与8月持平。这很容易解释原因。邦妮，所有这些情况都不太好，那就是抵押贷款利率。看看过去几个月抵押贷款利率发生了什么变化，随着市场推高收益率曲线，我们看到抵押贷款利率飙升，我们现在基本上达到了7.5%，有些分析师今天早上说甚至可能达到8%，这不是好消息。
Well, the overall pace of gain, that's pretty stunning. If you look at that chart there, you can see how dramatic it is. It's all going to depend on tomorrow morning data in some ways. Right. Because if you get really hot CPI tomorrow then is October back on the table? It could be back on the table. We're not expecting really hot. At least economists surveyed by Bloomberg are not a 4/10 rise in the headline, which is kind of obvious because energy prices have gone up a lot.
总体增长步伐令人震惊。如果你看那张图表，你可以看到它有多么剧烈。这在某种程度上都取决于明天早上的数据。对。因为如果明天的消费者价格指数（CPI）非常强劲，那么十月加息是否重新成为选项？它可能会重新成为选项。我们不期望真的会这么强劲。至少彭博社调查的经济学家不认为 headline CPI 会上涨4/10个百分点，这很明显，因为能源价格已经上涨了很多。
That would push the year over year rate to 3.6%. But the core just a 2/10 gain is what is seen. And that would raise the year over year to 2.5%, just a little bit higher. Um, the base effects, uh, meaning but uh, at this point, that's not going to cause the fed to put October back on the table if we get something like that. So we've heard from a lot of fed officials today, and they're all kind of saying the same thing is rates are still going to go up, but maybe not this month.
这将使同比率达到3.6%。但核心通胀仅增长2/10个百分点，这是人们所看到的。这将使同比率达到2.5%，略高一点。基数效应，嗯，意思是但到目前为止，即使我们得到这样的数据，也不会导致美联储将十月加息重新列入议程。所以我们今天听到了很多美联储官员的声音，他们都在说同样的话，即利率仍将继续上升，但可能不是这个月。
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