韩国股市大跌5.5% 芯片股承压拖累亚太市场
Chipmakers Under Pressure; Saudi Arabia Intercepts Missiles
涵盖亚太核心资产跌幅、龙头个股表现及宏观利率预期变化,数据详实可验证,适合关注半导体周期与全球流动性联动的投资者留意风险。
VONNIE: IT IS 5:00 A.M. IN NEW YORK CITY. GOOD MORNING. CHIPMAKERS UNDER PRESSURE, DRAGGING STOCK FUTURES LOWER. SAUDI ARABIA INTERCEPTS FRESH HOUTHI ATTACKS. PRESIDENT TRUMP SAYS HE LOOKS AT JOINING SAUDI BACK STRIKES. BLOOMBERG NEW ECONOMY FORUM IN FULL SWING IN INDIA. AN ALL-STAR LINEUP THROUGHOUT THE DAY LIVE FROM NEW DELHI. THE GLOBAL CHIP SELLOFF CONTINUES. LET'S GET A READ ON MARKETS AROUND THE WORLD WILL WINNIE HSU.
VONNIE:现在是纽约时间凌晨5点。大家早上好。芯片制造商承压,拖累股指期货走低。沙特阿拉伯拦截了胡塞武装的最新袭击。特朗普总统表示他正在考虑加入对沙特的反击。彭博新经济论坛在印度全面展开。全天全明星阵容,直播来自新德里。全球芯片抛售持续。让我们来看看全球市场的走势,我是Winnie Hsu。
WINNIE: GOOD MORNING. A PRETTY BRUTAL SELLOFF THAT WE SEE IN ASIA AND ESPECIALLY THE KOREAN STOCKS. THE BENCHMARK KOSPI BE AS MUCH A 7% EARLIER TODAY BEFORE PARING SOME OF ITS LOSSES TO BE CLOSING DOWN AT 5.5% LOWER. THE BIGGEST DRAGON THE MEMORY CHIPMAKERS. SK HYNIX DOWN MORE THAN 7% AND THAT IS COMING AFTER THE LOSSES WE SAW IN U.S. CHIPMAKERS OVERNIGHT, PLUS COMMENTS FROM BROADCOM CEO SAYING THAT GOING FORWARD THE KEY BOTTLENECK OF THE AI TRADE WILL LIKELY BE IN FUNDING INSTEAD OF MEMORY CHIPS.
WINNIE:早上好。我们在亚洲看到了一场相当残酷的抛售,尤其是韩国股市。基准指数KOSPI今天早些时候一度下跌高达7%,随后部分回吐跌幅,收盘下跌5.5%。最大的重灾区是内存芯片制造商。SK海力士下跌超过7%,这发生在美国芯片制造商隔夜出现亏损之后,加上博通(Broadcom)首席执行官表示,未来人工智能行业的关键瓶颈可能在于资金而非内存芯片。
THERE'S ALSO CONCERNS AROUND THE COMPETITION FROM THE CHINESE RIVAL CXMT, GIVEN THAT THEY ARE MAKING PROGRESS WHEN IT COMES TO THIS NEW MEMORY ARCHITECT THAT BOTH OF THESE KOREAN CHIPMAKERS ARE ACTUALLY WORKING ON FOR YEARS. YOU TAKE A LOOK AT HOW THAT IS SPILLING OVER TO THE BROADER ASIAN MARKET, THE MSCI ASIA DOWN 1.3%. JAPAN AND TAIWAN BOTH DOWN ABOUT 2%. ALL EYES ON THE JAPANESE YEN WHICH IS STRENGTHENING BY .4% TODAY.
此外,人们还担心来自中国竞争对手长鑫存储(CXMT)的竞争,鉴于他们在两种韩国芯片制造商多年来一直在研发的新型内存架构方面取得了进展。我们来看看这对更广泛的亚洲市场产生了怎样的溢出效应,MSCI亚洲指数下跌1.3%。日本和台湾均下跌约2%。所有人的目光都集中在日元上,日元今天走强0.4%。
WE JUST HAD THOSE HEADLINES CROSSING THE TERMINAL JUST NOW SAYING THE BANK OF JAPAN IS LEANING AGAINST A BACK TO BACK RATE THIS MONTH, SAYING THEY DON'T SEE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF A SHARP INCREASE IN THE UPSIDE INFLATION RISK. PLUS, THEY WANT MORE TIME TO ASSESS THE ECONOMIC DATA. WE DID SEE THE YEN FLUCTUATING -- FLUCTUATING AGAINST THE 158 LEVEL AGAINST THE DOLLAR. THE POSSIBILITY OF A RATE HIKE IS A BIT HIGHER WHEN IT COMES TO THE DECEMBER POSSIBILITY.
我们刚刚在终端上看到那些头条新闻,称日本银行倾向于本月不连续加息,并表示他们看不到通胀上行风险急剧增加的高可能性。此外,他们需要更多时间来评估经济数据。我们看到日元波动——兑美元在158水平附近波动。就12月加息的可能性而言,这一可能性略高一些。
VONNIE: THE YEN SEEMS PRETTY STABLE FOR NOW. LET'S GO TO LONDON FOR A LOOK AT THE EUROPEAN SESSION WITH JUSTINA LEE. JUSTINA: GOOD MORNING. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A BETTER DAY IN EUROPE, PROBABLY THANKS TO LOWER TECH RATING. WE ARE SEEING THE STOXX 600 UP NEARLY 0.6% THANKS TO GAINS FROM A LOT OF THE PROXY BOND SECTORS LIKE REAL ESTATE AND UTILITIES. THE WORST PERFORMING SECTOR IS STILL TECH. LED BY CHIPMAKERS AND FOR A LOT OF THE REASONS THAT WHEN WAS TALKING ABOUT SUCH AS ASML.
VONNIE:目前看来日元相当稳定。让我们转到伦敦,看看欧洲交易时段的情况,由Justina Lee报道。JUSTINA:早上好。在欧洲看起来会是更好的一天,这可能要归功于科技股评级下调。我们看到斯托克600指数(STOXX 600)上涨近0.6%,这得益于许多代理债券板块如房地产和公用事业的涨幅。表现最差的板块仍然是科技业,主要由芯片制造商引领,原因正如我之前讨论过的,例如阿斯麦(ASML)。
WE FLIPPED THE BOARD AND LOOK AT THE FIXED INCOME SIDE OF THINGS, WE HAVE SEEN A PAUSE IN THE GAIN OF OIL AND WE HAVE SEEN THAT HAS BEEN A REPRIEVE FOR EUROPEAN BOND YIELDS IN GENERAL. TODAY, WE ARE SEEING SOME DOLLAR WEAKNESS THAT IS LIFTING THE EURO UP NEARLY 0.3%. VONNIE: THANK YOU. COMMENTS FROM INTEL ALSO SETTING A CHILL THROUGH THE MARKET BUT NOT QUITE SO MUCH AS IT DID IN KOREA AND NOT QUITE TAKING OUR CUES FROM KOREA.
我们翻转棋盘,审视固定收益领域。我们看到油价涨势出现暂停,这对欧洲债券收益率整体而言是一种喘息之机。今日,我们看到美元走弱,推动欧元上涨近0.3%。冯妮:谢谢。英特尔的评论也在市场引发寒意,但程度不及在韩国时那样剧烈,我们并未完全照搬韩国的信号。
NASDAQ 100 FUTURES ARE POINTING LOWER BUT S&P FUTURES ARE DECIDING WHICH WAY TO GO AND RUSSELL 2000 FUTURES FIRMLY IN THE POSITIVE. THE CHIPMAKER SELLOFF DOES CONTINUE. WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF A SAFE HAVEN TRADE AS WE LOOK AT TREASURIES FOR PARTICULARLY THE 10 YEAR YIELD DOWN ABOUT FIVE BASIS POINTS BUT WE ARE SEEING DECLINES ACROSS THE BOARD, FOR BASIS POINTS AT THE LONG END AND TWO BASIS POINTS AT THE FRONT END.
纳斯达克100期货指向下跌,但标普期货仍在犹豫方向,罗素2000期货则明确看涨。芯片制造商的抛售仍在继续。随着我们关注国债,尤其是10年期收益率下降约5个基点,我们看到一定的避险交易行为;但在长端收益率方面全线下跌数十个基点,短端下跌2个基点。
WE ARE SEEING A LITTLE BIT OF CONSULTATION ON OIL AS WELL. BRENT CRUDE IS STILL UP AND HEATING OIL FUTURES ARE OFF JUST A FEW CENTS. NOT A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF RELIEF FROM THE DIESEL DEAL WITH RUSSIA. IT REALLY ONLY MEANS 1/6 OF RUSSIA'S NORMAL EXPORTS WILL BE COMING BACK TO MARKET SO IT IS NOT LIKE IT WILL MAKE A MASSIVE DIFFERENCE. THEY HAVE NOT QUITE COME TO MARKET YET SO EVEN THOUGH CREDIT SPREADS ARE NARROWING, WE ARE NOT SEEING A MASSIVE AMOUNT OF DIFFERENCE.
我们也看到原油市场出现些许咨询动态。布伦特原油仍处上涨态势,取暖油期货仅小幅回落几美分。与俄罗斯达成的柴油协议带来的缓解作用并不巨大。这实际上仅意味着俄罗斯正常出口量的六分之一将重返市场,因此不会带来巨大的差异。它们尚未真正进入市场,所以尽管信用利差正在收窄,我们并未看到显著的变化。
I DID WANT TO POINT OUT THAT BANK OF AMERICA HAS A NEW POLL OUT, SHOWING THAT INVESTORS ARE MORE EXPOSED TO TECH THEN THEY HAVE BEEN AT ANY TIME SINCE JUST AFTER THE PANDEMIC. LET'S GET SOME INDIVIDUAL PREMARKET MOVERS WITH ALEX MORGAN. ALEX: GOOD MORNING. MACRON, NVIDIA AND AMD, WE START THE ASIA SESSION WITH THE CONTINUING PRESSURE ON SEMICONDUCTORS, ON CHIPS. CLOSING DOWN AROUND 5%. KEEP YOUR EYES TO THESE NAMES TODAY.
我想指出,美国银行发布了一项新调查,显示投资者对科技股的敞口自疫情结束以来处于最高水平。让我们跟随亚历克斯·摩根来看看盘前个别活跃股。亚历克斯:早上好。马克龙、英伟达和AMD,我们在亚洲交易时段开始时面临半导体和芯片持续的压力,跌幅约为5%。今天请密切关注这些股票。
WE HAVE THE COMMENTS FROM THE BROADCOM CEO, COMPARING MARKET SENTIMENT TO A CASINO GAMBLER SO THAT IS A COLORFUL ELEMENT IN THE MEMORY TRADE TODAY. LET'S FLIP IT OVER TO BUMBLE, SOME MATCHMAKING FOR THE DATA APP. ON THE NEWS THAT WALL STREET JOURNAL THAT THEY CAN BE LOOKING AT GOING PRIVATE FOR ABOUT $1 BILLION FOR LET'S FINISH ON STELLANTIS, SOME PLANNED OUTAGES IN NORTH AMERICA, PARTICULARLY SOME OF THE JEEP MODELS AND WANT TO KEEP ON EYE ON THAT TODAY.
我们有来自博通首席执行官的评论,他将市场情绪比作赌场赌徒,这为今日的内存交易增添了一抹色彩。让我们转向Bumble,这是一款数据应用的配对软件。据《华尔街日报》报道,他们可能考虑以约10亿美元的价格私有化。最后关注Stellantis,其在北美计划停产,特别是部分Jeep车型,今天我们要持续关注这一情况。
VONNIE: THAT IS ALEX MORGAN. COMING UP, THE INFOSYS COFOUNDER AND CHAIRMAN JOINS US FOR AN EXCLUSIVE CONVERSATION. LATER, WE WILL PUSH AHEAD TO THE EARNINGS SEASON STARTING WITH THE BANKS THAT I STARTING WITH SEEMA SHAH. LET'S GET STRAIGHT TO SHERY AHN AT THE NEW ECONOMY FORUM IN NEW DELHI WITH THE EXCLUSIVE INTERVIEW. SHERY? SHERY: GREAT TO COME TO YOU FROM NEW DELHI FOR THE NEW ECONOMY FORUM, THE EIGHTH EDITION HAPPENING.
VONNIE:这是亚历克斯·摩根。接下来,Infosys联合创始人兼董事长将加入我们的独家对话。稍后,我们将提前进入财报季,从银行板块开始,由西玛·沙赫(Seema Shah)主持。让我们直接连线在德里举行的新经济论坛上的谢丽·安(Shery Ahn),带来独家采访。谢丽?谢丽:很高兴在新德里为您带来新经济论坛第八期的报道。
IT IS AROUND THE THEME OF THE GLOBAL WORLD ORDER WHERE WE ARE SEEING MORE COMPETITION IN AN ERA WHERE WE ARE SEEING ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE DISRUPT SO MUCH. I AM HERE WITH THE INFOSYS CHAIRMAN AND COFOUNDER. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US. YOU HELPED BUILD THE I.T. SERVICES INDUSTRY HERE IN INDIA, WHAT WAS IT, 1981 WITH SIX OTHER COLLEAGUES?
本次论坛围绕“全球秩序”这一主题展开,我们看到在一个人工智能引发巨大颠覆的时代,竞争日益激烈。我在此采访的是Infosys董事长兼联合创始人。非常感谢您加入我们。您帮助建立了印度的IT服务行业,那是1981年,当时您与另外六位同事一起起步的吗?
YES. SHERY: SO MUCH IS CHANGING NOW AND AI COULD THREATEN THE WHOLE BUSINESS MODEL. HOW ARE YOU SEEING THE CHANGES NOW AND WHAT INFOSYS DOES NEXT?
是的。谢丽:如今一切都在变化,人工智能可能会威胁整个商业模式。您如何看待当前的变化,以及Infosys下一步将做什么?
I THINK THE LAST 45 YEARS, WE HAVE BEEN THERE, THIS IS THE BIGGEST TRANSFORMATION HAPPENING IN THE INDUSTRY BECAUSE AI IS CHANGING EVERYTHING. AI CODING IS BECOMING VERY POPULAR. IT IS ALSO CREATING NEW OPPORTUNITIES BECAUSE AI LED TRANSFORMATION OF BUSINESS IS THE BIGGEST STORY FOR THE NEXT DECADE. THAT REQUIRES A LOT OF SYSTEMS AND PEOPLE TO MAKE THAT HAPPEN. I BELIEVE WHILE CODING MAY BECOME LESS OF AN ISSUE, AI BUSINESS TRANSFORMATION WITH AI WILL BE A BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR COMPANIES LIKE INFOSYS.
我认为在过去45年里,我们一直身处其中,这是行业内正在发生的最大转型,因为人工智能正在改变一切。AI编程正变得非常流行。它也在创造新的机会,因为由AI驱动的业务转型是未来十年的最大故事。这需要大量的系统和人员来推动实现。我相信,虽然编码可能不再是问题,但利用AI进行业务转型将是像Infosys这样的公司的重大机遇。
SHERY: WHO ARE PARTNERING WITH ANTHROPIC'S CLAUDE AS WELL? NANDAN: IT IS A VERY EFFICIENT WAY OF ENABLING COMPANIES WITH MULTIPLE LEGACY SYSTEMS AND USING MULTIPLE TOOLS TO HAVE COMPLETE CONTROL OVER THEIR OWN INFRASTRUCTURE. THAT HAS BEEN VERY POPULAR. SHERY: YOU ARE MODEL AGNOSTIC WHEN IT COMES TO ORCHESTRATING, AS YOU HAVE CALLED IT, THIS AGE OF CHANGE FOR ENTERPRISES THAT YOU CONSULT FOUR. IN THAT CASE, WHAT SORT OF MODELS DO YOU PREFER?
谢丽:你们也与Anthropic的Claude合作吗?南丹:这是一种非常高效的方式,使拥有多个遗留系统的公司能够使用多种工具,从而完全掌控自己的基础设施。这已经非常受欢迎。谢丽:在协调您所称之为的企业变革时代时,您是模型无关的(model agnostic)。在这种情况下,您更偏好哪种类型的模型?
SMALLER MODELS, FRONTIER BIG COMPANIES? NANDAN: IN ANY SITUATION, YOU HAVE A COMBINATION OF MODELS WITH SOME EXTREME HIGH REQUIREMENTS WE WILL USE FRONTIER MODELS. FOR THE MIDDLE, WE USE OPEN SOURCE MODELS FOR AND THE OWN SMALL MODELS USING YOUR DATA. YOU MIX AND MATCH ALL OF THESE THINGS BASED ON THE NEED. ORCHESTRATION IS BRINGING ALL THESE DIFFERENT THINGS TOGETHER TO CREATE AN EFFECTIVE SOLUTION. SHERY: TURNING THAT INTO ACTUAL REVENUE THE FACT THAT THE ENTERPRISES CAN ACTUALLY FEEL THAT A OUT IS HELPING THEM.
小型模型还是前沿大型公司?南丹:在任何情况下,您都需要组合使用各种模型。对于某些极端高要求的场景,我们会使用前沿模型。对于中间层,我们使用开源模型以及基于自有数据训练的小型模型。您会根据需求混合搭配所有这些技术。编排(Orchestration)是将所有这些不同的东西整合在一起,以创建有效的解决方案。谢丽:将其转化为实际收入,关键在于企业确实能感受到AI正在帮助它们。
WHAT ARE THEY TELLING YOU? NANDAN: THEY ARE SAYING AI IS MAKING BUSINESS IS FAR MORE COMPLICATED THAN THEY THOUGHT. THEY HAVE DONE AN INITIAL PILOT SAID AT SCALING IT UP. UNLESS YOU FUNDAMENTALLY REIMAGINE AND TRANSFORM YOUR BUSINESS, YOU WILL NOT GET THE PRODUCTIVITY BENEFITS PEOPLE TALK ABOUT. PEOPLE ARE REALIZING THEY HAVE TO GO BACK AND REALLY IMAGINE HAVE WHAT IT TAKES TO USE AI AND CAPABILITIES. PUTTING GUARD RAIL SO THERE ARE NO ROGUE AGENTS.
他们告诉你什么?南丹:他们说,人工智能使业务变得比他们想象的复杂得多。他们已经完成了初步试点,并正在讨论扩大规模。除非你从根本上重新构想和转型你的业务,否则你将无法获得人们所谈论的生产力效益。人们意识到,他们需要回过头来真正想象利用人工智能和能力需要付出什么代价,并设置护栏以防止出现不受控制的智能体。
A LOT OF REQUIREMENTS ON HOW TO DO AI PROPERLY. SHERY: DO YOU SEE OTHER INDIAN BUSINESSES BEING ABLE TO SURVIVE THE DISRUPTION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE THE WAY YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT IT? NANDAN: I AM SURE THEY WILL. EVERYBODY WILL EXECUTE THEIR OWN PLAN BUT IF THEY ARE ABLE TO CHANGE THEIR WHOLE BUSINESS MODEL AND BUILD NEW AI SERVICES, TRANSFORM THEIR WORKFORCE, REIMAGINE AI, THEY WILL DO IT. SHERY: IT IS NOT JUST ABOUT INFOSYS OR INDIAN TECH SERVICES, YOU HELPED BUILD THE DIGITAL INFRASTRUCTURE OF THIS COUNTRY, THE SYSTEM BY WHICH QPI WAS BASED WHICH REVOLUTIONIZED THE PAYMENT SERVICES SYSTEM.
关于如何正确实施人工智能有很多要求。谢丽:你是否看到其他印度企业能够以你所描述的方式在人工智能的颠覆中生存下来?南丹:我确信他们会。每个人都会执行自己的计划,但如果他们能够改变整个商业模式,构建新的 AI 服务,转型劳动力队伍,重新构想人工智能,他们就能做到。谢丽:这不仅仅是关于印孚瑟斯(Infosys)或印度技术服务公司,你还帮助构建了该国的数字基础设施,即基于 QPI 的系统,该系统彻底改变了支付服务体系。
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