IMF上调今年全球增长预期至3.1%并警告韧性见顶
Global Uncertainty Tests India’s Growth Story
IMF正式调整全球增长核心假设，明确提示“韧性见顶”这一关键宏观拐点，直接影响跨资产定价逻辑与新兴市场风险评估，建议关注后续通胀与利率路径变化。
HASLINDA: LIVE FROM THE NEW ECONOMY FORM IN DELHI, THIS IS INSIGHT WITH HASLINDA AMIN. ONE WORLD'S FASTEST-GROWING MAJOR ECONOMIES COMPETING GLOBALLY FOR INVESTMENT, TECHNOLOGY AND TALENT. AS GEODE -- GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS RESHAPE TRAITS AND AI TRANSFORM INDUSTRIES, CAN IT LEAD TO SUSTAINED LONG-TERM GROWTH. WE WILL FOCUS ON ALL THAT YOU'RE AT THE BLOOMBERG NEW ECONOMY FORM AS WE COUNT DOWN TO KEYNOTE SPEECH FROM NARENDRA MODI.
哈斯琳达：来自新德里新经济论坛的现场直播，这是《洞察》节目，由哈斯琳达·阿明主持。全球增长最快的主要经济体之一正在全球范围内争夺投资、技术和人才。随着地缘政治紧张局势重塑贸易格局，人工智能正在改变各行各业，这能否带来持续的长期增长？我们将重点关注这一切，您正身处彭博新经济论坛，我们正倒计时等待莫迪总理的主题演讲。
INVESTORS AND BUSINESS LEADERS WILL BE LISTENING FOR CLUES ON INDIA'S ECONOMIC AMBITIONS IN THE CHANGING GLOBAL ORDER AND PLANS TO ATTRACT INVESTMENT AT A TIME OF HEIGHTENED UNCERTAINTY. ALSO AHEAD WE WILL SPEAK LIVE WITH THE IMF CHIEF ECONOMIST AS THE FUND RAISES NEXT YEAR'S GLOBAL GROWTH FORECAST BUT WARNS RESILIENCE IS UNDER STRAIN. AND MIKE CANNON BROOKES JOINS US EXCLUSIVELY ON WHAT THE TRANSFORMATION MEANS FOR CUSTOMERS, -- COMPETITION AND GROWTH.
投资者和商业领袖将仔细聆听关于印度在变化的全球秩序中的经济雄心以及在不确定的高企时期吸引投资的计划的线索。此外，我们还将与IMF首席经济学家进行现场对话，该基金上调了明年的全球增长预测，但警告称韧性正面临压力。迈克·坎农-布鲁克斯独家加入我们，探讨这一转型对客户、竞争和增长意味着什么。
WE WILL DISCUSS INDIA'S GROWING ROLE AND DURABLE HEALTH CARE AND THE OPPORTUNITIES AHEAD. ALL THAT AND MORE COMING UP AS WE BRING YOU THE BIGGEST NAMES AND BEST CONVERSATIONS FROM THE BLOOMBERG NEW ECONOMY FORUM. ♪ BLOOMBERG'S NEW ECONOMY FORM IS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY HERE IN NEW DELHI. INDIA'S HOSTING FOR THE FIRST TIME I LATER PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA MODI IS SET TO ADDRESS KEY POLICY MAKERS AND BUSINESS LEADERS GATHERED HERE.
我们将讨论印度日益增长的角色以及持久的医疗保健领域和未来的机遇。所有这一切以及其他精彩内容即将呈现，我们将为您带来彭博新经济论坛上最重要的名字和最精彩的对话。♪ 彭博新经济论坛在新德里刚刚拉开帷幕。印度首次主办此次活动，稍后总理纳伦德拉·莫迪将在此向聚集的政策制定者和商业领袖发表讲话。
THIS CROSSOVER TO MY COLLEAGUE SHERY AHN, THIS IS THE EIGHTH EDITION OF THE NEF HOSTED FOR THE FIRST TIME IN INDIA. WHAT ARE WE EXPECTING? SHERY: PRIME MINISTER MODI IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ANYTIME NOW AT THE HOTEL HERE IN CENTRAL DELHI. WE'VE SEEN PARTICIPANTS OF THE NEW ECONOMY FORM ALREADY LINING UP TO GO SEE THE PRIME MINISTER. HE ALREADY WELCOMED BLOOMBERG, SAYING INDIA'S NOT ONLY AN INVESTMENT DESTINATION ANYMORE, IT'S ACTUALLY A RELIABLE PARTNER IN SHAPING THE GLOBAL FUTURE.
接下来交给我同事谢丽·安，这是第八届NEF（新经济论坛），首次在印度举办。我们期待什么？谢丽：预计莫迪总理随时会抵达位于新德里市中心的这家酒店。我们已经看到新经济论坛的参与者排起长队去见总理。他此前曾欢迎彭博社的到来，表示印度不再仅仅是一个投资目的地，它实际上是塑造全球未来的可靠伙伴。
WE ARE SEEING HEAVY SECURITY AROUND THE HOTEL RIGHT NOW IN THE ENTRANCE OF THE HOTEL BUT IS NOT JUST BECAUSE OF PRIME MINISTER MODI'S ARRIVAL, IT'S BECAUSE OF ALL THOSE HIGH-PROFILE GUESTS THAT YOU MENTIONED WILL BE ARRIVING HERE FOR THE EVENT. THE FORMER COMMERCE SECRETARY OF UNITED STATES, NOT TO MENTION THE FINANCE MINISTER OF INDIA, ALSO CORPORATE LEADERS AS WELL AND GLOBAL LEADERS FROM BRAZIL OR ALL COMING HERE TO INDIA TO HAVE DIFFERENT CONVERSATIONS AROUND THE STATE OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMY, NOT TO MENTION LEADERS OF GEOPOLITICAL CONFLICT WE ARE SEEING AROUND THE WORLD.
我们现在看到酒店周围戒备森严，特别是在酒店入口处，但这不仅仅是因为莫迪总理的到来，更是因为您提到的那些高调嘉宾将抵达这里参加活动。美国前商务秘书，更不用说印度财政部长，还有企业领袖以及来自巴西的全球领导人，都将来到印度，就印度经济和全球经济的状况进行各种对话，更不用说我们在全世界看到的涉及地缘政治冲突的领导人。
IT'S NOT JUST THE SKI -- SECURITY BECAUSE WERE EXPECTING ALL THOSE NEWSMAKERS TO COME, WE'VE SEEN SECURITY POLICE AND PARAMILITARY FORCES AROUND DELHI IN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND TENSIONS HAVE BEEN RISING. WERE TALKING ABOUT STUDENT PROTESTERS BEING DETAINED AND RELEASED OVER THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE THE GIN SEE LED PARTY VOWING TO CONTINUE ITS PROTEST, SEEKING ELECTORAL REFORMS AND THEY WANT THE RESIGNATION OF THE CHIEF ELECTORAL COMMISSION OFFICIAL ON ALLEGATIONS OF MANIPULATION OF VOTERS.
这不仅仅是滑雪——安全问题，因为我们预计所有新闻人物都会到来。过去几天我们在德里看到了安全警察和准军事部队，紧张局势正在升级。我们谈论的是学生抗议者在本周末被拘留又释放的情况。我们有国大党（INC）誓言继续其抗议活动，寻求选举改革，他们要求因操纵选民的指控而辞职的首席选举委员会官员下台。
THERE IS A LOT TO CONTEND WITH IN THIS BACKDROP AS WERE WAITING ALL THESE NEWSMAKERS TOGETHER HERE IN NEW DELHI. HASLINDA: AS YOU SAID, THE PRIME MINISTER EXPECTED TO SPEAK SOON AGAINST THE CHALLENGING BACKDROP. IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE PROTEST BUT ALSO THE ECONOMY THAT HAS SLOWED DOWN FROM 7.7% TO 6.5%. WHAT IS HE EXPECTED TO SAY? SHERY: I MINISTER MODI HAS ALREADY WELCOMED THE NEW ECONOMY FORUM SAYING HE WANTS TO BUILD INDIA INTO A RELIABLE FUTURE OF GROWTH FOR THE WORLD ECONOMY.
在我们等待所有这些新闻人物齐聚新德里的同时，背景情况复杂多变。哈斯林达：正如你所说，总理预计将在充满挑战的背景下很快发表讲话。这不仅关乎抗议，还关乎经济，经济增长已从7.7%放缓至6.5%。他预计会说什么？谢丽：莫迪总理已经欢迎世界经济论坛，表示他希望将印度建设为世界经济的可靠增长未来。
THE CHALLENGES ARE THERE, RELATIVE TO THE ENTIRE WORLD, AT THE SAME TIME INFLATION IS ACCELERATING. INFLATION LAST MONTH COMING IN WITH AN ACCELERATION OF 5.5% FROM A YEAR AGO. THIS IS TOWARD THE HIGHER PART OF THE TOLERANCE THEY AND FROM THE RBIS. PERHAPS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE ISSUE OF ENERGY. 90% OF ITS OIL NEEDS COME FROM OVERSEAS, NOT TO MENTION THE EXPECTATIONS OF HIGHER RATE HIKES. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS GOING UP.
相对于整个世界而言，挑战依然存在，同时通胀正在加速。上个月通胀率同比加速至5.5%。这处于印度储备银行（RBI）容忍度的较高部分。鉴于能源问题，这或许并不令人意外。其90%的石油需求来自海外，更不用说对加息的预期了。通胀预期正在上升。
THIS MORNING IT WAS RAINY AND WET BUT THAT HASN'T NECESSARILY BEEN THE CASE FOR THE ISSUES MONSOON SEASON WHICH DELIVERED ABOUT 13% LESS RAIN IN THIS COUNTRY. THAT SPEEDING THROUGH TO CROPS AND FOOD PRICES AND MONETARY POLICY. THE RBIS STARTED ITS HIKING CYCLE RECENTLY GIVEN THESE CONCERNS. HASLINDA: THAT'S RIGHT, AND THE RUPEE IS HOVERING CLOSE TO RECORD LOW, 97 TO THE DOLLAR. SHERY AHN AT THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORUM HERE IN DELHI.
今天早上雨湿漉漉的，但这并不一定意味着季风季节的情况也是如此，该季节给该国带来的降雨量减少了约13%。这对作物、食品价格和货币政策产生了影响。鉴于这些担忧，印度储备银行最近开始了加息周期。哈斯林达：没错，卢比徘徊在接近历史低位的水平，1美元兑97卢比。谢丽·安（Shery Ahn）从德里举行的全球经济论坛发回报道。
THE IMF SAYS GLOBAL GROWTH SHOULD PICK UP NEXT YEAR WITH A BOOST FROM AI INVESTMENT THIS MORNING THE WORLD ECONOMY IS NEARING THE LIMITS OF ITS RESILIENCE IN ITS LATEST WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. THE IMF MAINTAINS 3.4% GROWTH FORECAST FOR 2027 AND HAS RAISED ITS EXPANSION ASPECT FOR THIS YEAR TO 3.1%. BUSINESSES HAVE CONTINUED TO ADJUSTED -- TO ADJUST TO REPEATED SHOTS BUT WARNS IT COULD CHANGE AS THE ENERGY SQUEEZE PERSISTS FINANCIAL RISK CONTINUE TO BUILD.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）表示，明年在全球人工智能投资的推动下，全球增长应该回升。今天早上，在其最新的《世界经济展望》中，世界经济正接近其韧性的极限。国际货币基金组织维持2027年3.4%的增长预测，并将今年的扩张方面预测上调至3.1%。企业一直在适应反复出现的冲击，但警告称，随着能源挤压持续，情况可能会发生变化，金融风险仍在累积。
LET'S GET MORE ON THE IMF REPORT WITH AVRIL HONG, WHO IS STANDING BY IN BANGKOK. AVRIL: A VERY SPECIAL GUEST INDEED, THE CHIEF ECONOMIST OF THE INTERNATIONAL. GREAT TO HAVE YOU WITH US. TALK TO US ABOUT WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY BECAUSE THERE IS RESILIENCE. THE QUESTION IS, CAN IT CONTINUE INTO NEXT YEAR AND BEYOND?
让我们继续深入探讨国际货币基金组织（IMF）的报告，Avril Hong 正在曼谷连线。Avril：确实是一位非常特别的嘉宾，国际货币基金组织的首席经济学家。很高兴您能与我们交流。请谈谈您在全球经济中看到的景象，因为经济展现出了韧性。问题是，这种韧性能否延续到明年及以后？
THANK YOU. INDEED, THE LOCAL ECONOMY HAS BEEN RESILIENT BUT THAT RESILIENCE IS REACHING ITS LIMITS WITH RISK FILTERED TO THE DOWNSIDE. WE EXPECT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY TO GROW THIS YEAR, 40 BASIS POINTS LOWER THAN LAST YEAR AND TO PICK UP AGAIN TO 3.4% IN 2027. THERE WERE TWO MAIN FACTORS, FIRST IS AI WHICH HAS LED TO DEMAND, PUSHING ACTIVITY AND PROCESS UP. THE OTHER ELEMENT IS FLEXIBILITY IN ENERGY MARKETS WHICH IS MEANT ADJUSTMENT, REROUTING OF SUPPLIES AND INCREASE PRODUCTION OUTSIDE THE CONFLICT REGION AND SUBSTITUTION TOWARD OTHER SOURCES OF ENERGY AND RENEWABLES.
谢谢。确实，本地经济一直颇具韧性，但这种韧性正触及极限，风险已向下倾斜。我们预计今年全球经济将增长，增速比去年低40个基点，并在2027年回升至3.4%。主要有两个因素：首先是人工智能（AI），它推动了需求，进而推高了活动和进程。另一个要素是能源市场的灵活性，这意味着调整、重新配置冲突地区以外的供应，增加生产，并转向其他能源来源和可再生能源。
ALL THESE MARGINS HAVE HAD TO BE RESILIENT AND SOME OF THEM ARE REACHING LIMITS. AVRIL: EXACTLY THE POINT THAT HAS BEEN RAISED IN THE REPORT IN THE WAY THAT ENERGY INVENTORIES HAVE BEEN DRAWN DOWN, AND WITH THAT IN MIND, DO YOU THINK AI WILL CONTINUE UPSETTING THE SHOCKS THAT COULD? ? COME TO GROWTH WHAT IS IN THE BALANCE HERE?
所有这些边际都不得不保持韧性，其中一些已达到极限。Avril：这正是报告中提出的观点，即能源库存已被消耗殆尽。考虑到这一点，您认为人工智能是否会继续扰乱可能冲击增长的冲击？目前平衡点在哪里？
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON AI. WE EXPECT THE AND CYCLE TO CONTINUE FOR SOME TIME AND THAT IS PUSHING INVESTMENT. THE KEY COMMISSION IS WHETHER INVESTMENT WILL CRYSTALLIZE TO HIGHER PRODUCTIVITY GAINS. WE HAVEN'T SEEN THOSE PRODUCTIVITY GAINS YET IN THE MACRO DATA. THERE ARE SOME STUDIES THAT ARE MORE GRANULAR, LOOKING AT MICRO GAINS FOR PRODUCTIVITY BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN THOSE REFLECTED YET. AVRIL: WHAT ABOUT THE IMPACT FROM AI ON PRICE PRESSURES BEYOND PRODUCTIVITY BUT ALSO ON HOW PROCESS A FED THROUGH INTO AND INFLATIONARY ASPECT?
人工智能方面存在大量不确定性。我们预计这一周期将持续一段时间，这将推动投资。关键问题在于投资是否能转化为更高的生产率收益。我们在宏观数据中尚未看到这些生产率收益。有一些研究更为细致，着眼于微观层面的生产率提升，但我们尚未看到这些反映出来。Avril：除了生产率之外，人工智能对价格压力的影响如何？以及它对美联储通过利率传导至通胀方面的影响是什么？
SO FAR WE ARE SEEING ONLY THE DEMAND EFFECTS OF AI, THE INCREASED INVESTMENT. THAT IS PUSHING UP PRICES OF KEY PRODUCTS INCLUDING CHIPS AND SEMICONDUCTORS. SO THAT IS THE SOURCE OF INFLATIONARY PRESSURE IN MANY COUNTRIES. AVRIL: TALK TO US ABOUT WHAT YOU'RE SEEING IN TERMS OF THE INDICATORS THAT AI IS WORKING TO IMPROVE PRODUCTIVITY. WHAT WILL THE IMF BE WATCHING OUT FOR?
到目前为止，我们只看到了人工智能的需求效应，即投资的增加。这推高了包括芯片和半导体在内的关键产品的价格。因此，这是许多国家通胀压力的来源。Avril：请谈谈您在人工智能有助于提高生产率方面的指标上看到的情况。国际货币基金组织将关注什么？
THOSE ARE NOT YET SHOWING ANYTHING FROM AI OR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN PRODUCTIVITY. IT MIGHT STILL COME, IT IS ALREADY ON. WHAT WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW IS INCREASING INVESTMENT, INCREASING TRADE ON HOW AI IS DRIVING THIS DEMAND. AVRIL: WHAT ABOUT WHEN IT COMES TO THE ERA OF GLOBAL EUROS, WHAT IS DRIVING THIS AND HOW MUCH OF IT IS STRUCTURAL?
目前还没有显示出任何来自人工智能的迹象，也没有显示生产率的任何显著变化。它可能仍然会出现，它已经开始了。我们现在看到的是投资增加，贸易增加，以及人工智能如何驱动这一需求。Avril：在全球欧元时代到来时，是什么在推动这一趋势，其中有多少是结构性的？
THERE ARE THREE ELEMENTS BEHIND THE INCREASE IN YIELDS. FIRST IS AI, ACTIVITY AND PRICES , AND RESPONSE FROM CENTRAL BANKS. THE SECOND IS ENERGY PRICES, QUALITY PRICES TRIGGERED BY THE WORLD INCREASING COMMODITY PRICES AND THE GLOBAL SUPPLY SHOCK. IT DRIVES UP PRICES AND HAMPERS PRODUCTIVITY. THE LAST ELEMENT IS IN INTERRUPTION ON PREMIUM TERMS, WITH HIGH EQUITY INTEREST RATES. INVENTORIES REQUIRE EXTRA PREMIUM OUR COMPENSATION FOR THE RISK.
收益率上升背后有三个因素。首先是人工智能、活动与价格，以及央行的反应。其次是能源价格、质量价格，由全球推高商品价格及全球供应冲击所触发。这会推高价格并阻碍生产力。最后一个因素是溢价条款的中断，伴随着高股权利率。库存需要额外的溢价来补偿风险。
THAT IS PLAYING OUT AS WELL. AVRIL: WHAT IS IT ALL GOING TO MEAN FOR EMERGING MARKETS? SPREADS ARE TIGHT. AT SOME POINT DO YOU GET THE SENSE THAT THINGS MIGHT TURN?
这种情况也在上演。艾弗尔：这对新兴市场意味着什么？利差正在收窄。在某个时刻，你是否感觉到事情可能会发生变化？
SPREADS HAVE NOT MOVED IN EMERGING MARKETS BUT OBVIOUSLY THE BASE RATES HAVE MOVED SIGNIFICANTLY. SO THAT IS GOING TO BE A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD HIT TO
新兴市场的利差没有变动，但显然基准利率已显著上升。因此这将对
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更进一步：量化金融体系
看懂新闻只是起点——沿量化金融路径，把它变成能交付的工程能力